Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

Since NYSE opn, both Dow and NAS have put in new spike highs in high volumed 5 min doji / spinning top patterns and are lower.....dax similar in a shooting star. Need to see higher TF closes....I sold dax at 12,554.5 cash.....since closed as its found support ~its 12,535 area....

My R level for Dow now is 140. If it can break that to the upside then it should push higher. Dax seemingly just waiting to see what NY are going to do today, if anything. If this was my Trader's Academy thread, I'd advise people to avoid these saturation areas unless they know exactly what they are doing, but seeing as it's not, I'm not saying a thing ;-)

I shorted at 40 but closed at BE when she didn't continue down. She may just want to go kiss SMA100 on 100 tick goodbye before leaving.

3m 100sma over the top of the price now, and that's bearish, though 200ema/sma still beneath. Whatever hapens today, I think what is most significant is that it has shown us that the Bull run has either cracked, or it is cracking for sure.

Last 3 septembers ended in red, if you look on last 9 years you have more than 50% chance that this sept. will end red - but he need go dow for about 500p.

Finally she cracked. The first level of S I have is the 5m 200ema or the 10m 100sma whichever tf you're using. Below that, and the door should be open for today's CP @ 443, though whether it gets there today remains to be seen.

Beware of the wide ranged, high volumed m5 marubozo that held at 61.8 % of todays range, especially IF dow holds above its BRN...I'm now flat as PA is unclear to me with several 5m tails.....and a couple of wicks too!

Ger30Dec (h4)

it should touch the ma200 (4th wave) and ...
... trace fast with a 5th one ... by completing the b5
... maybe ...

note the hidden divergence
(waiting for the a(c) wave) ... ABC correction = a(a)+b(a)+c(a)+b1+b2+b3compo+b4+b5+a(c)+b(c)+c(c)


P.S.
the count in yellow, logical ... would be wrong because it lacks proportionality
(counting inside the circles in yellow ... is the most plausible to dampen the acceleration of the momentum)

... the momentum resembles a rampant horse ... doesn't it ?..

If this wave up has completed and even if it is wave 1 (which it's 694 pips certainly looks like) in a final 5 wave move up to make new highs, then it could/should pull back as far as the 50 fib before heading north again.

Good morning

Looks like she is retracing to at least 12400 area. If we come up again, 12540 is a place for a short for me, if we break down from here, a pullback to 12500 area would be a short for me. 12377 is ADR on my chart, if we drop beyond, then 12345 area might be a place to buy.

Morning all!

Quick post before the London open.

Obviously we are in sell mode continuing from yesterday's expected top. I haven't got time to give my support levels now, so my pivots are -

CP 523 R1 561.
S1 487
S2 450
S3 414.

ps - Always difficult to know what the London boys will do, but I would say that any pullback should give the opportunity to short.

These days are always tricky setups.

I have some resistance at 510, 520 and 537.

Supports at 480, 430, 410, 400, 380.

That pre-London support was my 15m 200ema to the pip. If it does go higher than where it is now, then I think CP and the 15m 100sma just beneath it at 522 could be a level to watch closely. So far, this pullback, if it is a pullback, has reached the 50% fib retracement, which I have @ 518.

Always useful to see what eu is doing, as it has an inverse relationship with Dax, or tends to, and it looks a bit sandwiched atm between S&R. The 30m 100sma which came over the top of the price on Monday to send eu down has now got beneath it again, but the 200sma is just over the price now at 11,995. I have a couple of supporting MAs under the price today as well on the 30m tf, so it looks to me like eu will rise today, but that it could be contained at around the 12,000 level. If it does break above that, then I have further resistance at around 12,020. The upshot of this is that Dax may also struggle to do much this morning. We shall see.

Probably just a consolidation day, and it might be consolidation for a day or two in a narrow band, then my guess is one more leg up, then she might get nervous around the 700-900 levels again, and probably drop from there. That's my best guess based on the PA.

GM...pre the Extra Open there was a fakeout type spike down at 1 which turned into a bullish harami pattern. I was a buyer in the 12,485 area.

At XO and in the next candle too, there were high volumed up candles, so buyers were present.

Yesterday's low needs to hold to confirm - IMO - a bullish scenario. As always, Time Will Tell

Edit:At 08:45 GMT Price moved up from the Big Round Number as on the screen posted chart for approx 15 points and then retested the BRN.....I was a buyer both times.

After the second test of the BRN, price broke up above yesterday's close ( the black level) and above the Daily Pivot and on up to the MR1 level at 12,538 which is also 50% of its current 10 day ADR....

A pull back to the area of today's DP should -IMO -provide another buying opportunity.....

76.4% @ 540. Highest I've got for today is 550. Higher than that and I know nothing!

This tramline with multiple touches from above and below might be useful to capture a short on the Dax if it pokes it's head above the 76.4

Yes. H4 candle closes in 30 min on my chart, forming a pinbar above 12500 area. Could suck in some buyers. Selling around yesterdays high is definitely something to consider..

Thought it would be a good time to post a couple of charts looking at where we are from a wider perspective than intraday. Although I think that the price will struggle to get much higher today, though it could potentially reach today's R1 @ 560 if it can break above the 76.4% 540 level, the bigger time frames do definitely show that Dax can move a lot higher. At present, the H4 tf is showing Dax pretty well extended above its 200 moving average, and as it always likes to retrace back towards these, it may do so before it pushes much further.

Anyway, here are my weekly, two day and H4 charts, the weekly and 2 day very much showing that we are currently in a bull charge, and a pretty strong one at that, and this cannot be ignored. The Dow is also for me looking very bullish, especially since it broke through the resistance I had for it yesterday at 22,100. However, it has fallen back a bit, so we'll just have to see. On the fundamental front, there seems nothing that I can see that is going to bring these markets down very far, except of course the kind of thing that we cannot predict, such as some global event happening somewhere, and there are many powder kegs simmering around the planet at the moment as we all know.

The yellow line you see in the two day is the 61.8% which is the current resistance, and the orange one above is the 76.4%.

The MACD diversion I've drawn in on the H4 chart is only with the histogram, and that is nowhere near as reliable as the bands, but it is a possible tentative sign of a top having been reached along with the other various indicators.