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Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

  • #381
  • Edited 5:01am Sep 12, 2017 4:49am | Edited 5:01am
Short here at 542.8... looks like bearish divergence. let's see. SL at BE
  • #382
  • Sep 12, 2017 5:02am Sep 12, 2017 5:02am
Quoting PariCovek
Short here at 542.8... looks like bearish divergence. let's see. SL at BE
Knocked out... -0
  • #383
  • Sep 12, 2017 5:34am Sep 12, 2017 5:34am
she is slow but consistent above the average....sometime means strength..
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #384
  • Sep 12, 2017 5:41am Sep 12, 2017 5:41am
Quoting ZenNy
she is slow but consistent above the average....sometime means strength..
And sometimes exhaustion...
  • #385
  • Sep 12, 2017 5:50am Sep 12, 2017 5:50am
Quoting medici
{quote} And sometimes exhaustion...
exhaustion possible but more likely after a spike or a quick move....
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #386
  • Edited 6:43am Sep 12, 2017 6:20am | Edited 6:43am
Noticing Cat's post yesterday about possible upside targets for the current rally in Dax got me thinking - thanks Cat!

The heavy buying in the wide ranged red hammer at 1 started the move.

At 2 there was another wide ranged high volumed day to break well above the 37 day POC level around which Dax has traded during that period.

The small ( 26%) pull back allowed me to put on another set of fibs (gold) thus giving two sets showing a Boroden type confluence at its 1.38 expansion with the 61.8% retracement off the wider range.....thus a potential resistance area.

If broken, this leads to the next confluence area towards the 12,690 area.

Above is a Kiwi Oz Price Projection at 12,800 with the ATH at 12,955, currently some 420 points away.

IF Dax follows the S&P 500 into new highs, the next Price Projection is at 13,187 and then 13,369.....TWT....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #387
  • Sep 12, 2017 6:37am Sep 12, 2017 6:37am
Quoting Islander
Noticing Cat's post yesterday about possible upside targets for the current rally in Dax got me thinking - thanks Cat! The heavy buying in the wide ranged red hammer at 1 started the move. At 2 there was another wide ranged high volumed day to break well above the 37 day POC level around which Dax has traded during that period. The small ( 26%) pull back allowed me to put on another set of fibs (gold) thus giving two sets showing a Boroden type confluence at its 1.38 expansion with the 61.8% retracement off the wider range.....thus a potential resistance...
Good afternoon, Captain

Thank you for analysis. While the direction currently is up, one may note that DAX is above her 50 period, downward sloping, Bollinger band on the daily, and that both SMA100 and SMA50 are pointing down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #388
  • Sep 12, 2017 7:02am Sep 12, 2017 7:02am
Quoting medici
{quote} Good afternoon, Captain Thank you for analysis. While the direction currently is up, one may note that DAX is above her 50 period, downward sloping, Bollinger band on the daily, and that both SMA100 and SMA50 are pointing down. {image}

Good afternoon M and thank you for your chart and thoughts.....whilst I dont use MAs on my higher time frames, I would comment that those MAs are both flattening and what significance - if any - you put on this observation.

The hourly chart below is showing that Dax has encountered resistance around those daily fibs with its range so far less than half of its current 10 day average daily range.

Now we wait for the US traders to get to their desks, with only the JOLTS job openings data later for input although both the Dow and NAS and S&P are all making new highs on low, pre US Session volumes....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sep12 dax hrly 1103.png Size: 60 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #389
  • Edited 7:42am Sep 12, 2017 7:15am | Edited 7:42am
SP500 (h1)

I have this map ...
inside an 12345 elliott waves ... with TP @ 2495 (before an ABC correction)

P.S.
about the correlations :
Dax in correction?
(already ... inside a bullish 5th wave?)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SP500 (h1).png Size: 100 KB
... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
  • #390
  • Sep 12, 2017 7:25am Sep 12, 2017 7:25am
Quoting Islander
{quote} I would comment that those MAs are both flattening and what significance - if any - you put on this observation.
It is quite clear from studying the charts that I am not the only one looking at SMA50 and SMA100, with bands, on the hourly and the daily. There is plenty of evidence for that.

For example, the high of Thursday last week was at exactly the hourly upper Boll50, and the Friday morning low was at hourly SMA50. More than coincidences, methinks.
  • #391
  • Sep 12, 2017 7:37am Sep 12, 2017 7:37am
As the Dow pushes strongly north so far today, the Dax still looks to me like it's building for a fall. I'm watching particularly the 1m 200ema, because although the price dropped down to it earlier before rebounding off it at 9am London time, as the price has been struggling higher all day today, the gap between it and the 1m 200ema has been narrowing. From past experience of this sort of scenario is that the price will eventually find support off it again, rebound a bit, put in a lower high, and that could well be a good place to short, because as I maintained earlier, from my perspective, I see no longs today, they are just too risky for me with my charts as they are, and I think today's pa pretty much bears this out, as there is little buying going on today thus far. Again, just my skewed point of view, and not intended to influence!
  • #392
  • Sep 12, 2017 7:43am Sep 12, 2017 7:43am
reversed to short 12547 as ema20 broke on the 5M chart, was long from 29
  • #393
  • Sep 12, 2017 7:44am Sep 12, 2017 7:44am
Quoting cat
As the Dow pushes strongly north so far today, the Dax still looks to me like it's building for a fall. I'm watching particularly the 1m 200ema, because although the price dropped down to it earlier before rebounding off it at 9am London time, as the price has been struggling higher all day today, the gap between it and the 1m 200ema has been narrowing. From past experience of this sort of scenario is that the price will eventually find support off it again, rebound a bit, put in a lower high, and that could well be a good place to short, because...
I'm with you there. I'm looking at SMA100 on the 100 tick chart, which is a reliable support in trends. It has carried the journey up so far today and yesterday, but is now breaking. As you say, a lower high might be a nice opportunity.
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  • #394
  • Sep 12, 2017 7:46am Sep 12, 2017 7:46am
Quoting ZenNy
she is slow but consistent above the average....sometime means strength..
closed +33 pips....

seems much easier than forex........maybe I am wrong....we see...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #395
  • Sep 12, 2017 8:01am Sep 12, 2017 8:01am
Quoting cvds16
reversed to short 12547 as ema20 broke on the 5M chart, was long from 29
out be
  • #396
  • Sep 12, 2017 8:15am Sep 12, 2017 8:15am
All depends on NY now. If they buy then Dax goes with it.
  • #397
  • Sep 12, 2017 8:23am Sep 12, 2017 8:23am
Just to pass the time.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #398
  • Sep 12, 2017 8:41am Sep 12, 2017 8:41am
They're buying I guess. Surprise surprise!
  • #399
  • Sep 12, 2017 8:42am Sep 12, 2017 8:42am
Quoting medici
{quote} I'm with you there. I'm looking at SMA100 on the 100 tick chart, which is a reliable support in trends. It has carried the journey up so far today and yesterday, but is now breaking. As you say, a lower high might be a nice opportunity. {image}
Unless the NY lads are in buy mode again, then not so nice. Widow maker pa atm!
  • #400
  • Sep 12, 2017 9:00am Sep 12, 2017 9:00am
short 38.5
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