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USD/CAD

  • #12,021
  • Sep 7, 2017 3:38pm Sep 7, 2017 3:38pm
Anybody else feel this will rally up to 1.2261 before coming back down to 1.20?
"What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end."-Warren Buffet
  • #12,022
  • Sep 7, 2017 3:56pm Sep 7, 2017 3:56pm
Quoting OhComeOn
Anybody else feel this will rally up to 1.2261 before coming back down to 1.20?
We're hitting sub 1.20 tomorrow on CAD news.
  • #12,023
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:07pm Sep 7, 2017 4:07pm
Quoting gameofpips
{quote} We're hitting sub 1.20 tomorrow on CAD news.
Do you have an insider info on the employment/unemployment data or is it a hope/prayer? Technically the price action is getting too far from the mean value area and a retracement is more likely before any further southward move.

Trade safe and prosper

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #12,024
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:14pm Sep 7, 2017 4:14pm
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Do you have an insider info on the employment/unemployment data or is it a hope/prayer? Technically the price action is getting too far from the mean value area and a retracement is more likely before any further southward move. Trade safe and prosper KP
Hitting below 1.20 can mean 1.1999 temporarily before going back up for a retracement.
  • #12,025
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:24pm Sep 7, 2017 4:24pm
Quoting raklian
{quote} Hitting below 1.20 can mean 1.1999 temporarily before going back up for a retracement.
Yes it can mean so. But technically we are too far; the price action is in a strong area of support and that is why it is struggling to move southward atm.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #12,026
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:48pm Sep 7, 2017 4:48pm
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Yes it can mean so. But technically we are too far; the price action is in a strong area of support and that is why it is struggling to move southward atm. Trade safe and prosper. KP
Not necessarily. It can keep dropping like a rock - if the CAD news tomorrow comes very strongly.

It's happened before with this pair. Look back to April 2003 where it broke through a major support and didn't look back.
  • #12,027
  • Sep 7, 2017 5:01pm Sep 7, 2017 5:01pm
Quoting raklian
{quote} Not necessarily. It can keep dropping like a rock - if the CAD news tomorrow comes very strongly....
You shifted ground and refused the technical viewpoint I highlighted based on the original assumption by @gameofpips

Quoting gameofpips
{quote} We're hitting sub 1.20 tomorrow on CAD news.

Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Do you have an insider info on the employment/unemployment data or is it a hope/prayer? Technically the price action is getting too far from the mean value area and a retracement is more likely before any further southward move. Trade safe and prosper KP
I rest my case.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #12,028
  • Sep 7, 2017 5:29pm Sep 7, 2017 5:29pm
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Technically the price action is getting too far from the mean value area and a retracement is more likely before any further southward move. Trade safe and prosper KP
You're making the case that there is likely to be a retracement before any further southward move.

That may be so but it also may not be the case - in that scenario, it drops like a rock through 1.20 and keeps going. There are moments where technical analysis fails to hold up to reality. Adjust your risk accordingly. That's all I'm trying to say.

But I do question gameofpips' certainty that it will go under 1.20. I'm on your side on that aspect, at least.
  • #12,029
  • Sep 7, 2017 5:32pm Sep 7, 2017 5:32pm
So I'm but a baby trader here, but here's what I see.

Price has already hit the daily chart-highlighted resistance area. Strong news tomorrow will probably break psychological resistance at ~1.2100 and ~1.2060. I agree that the potential to hit 1.2000 level is possible.

If somehow price breaks through all of this, the weekly snippet I have shows that there isn't all that much resistance further down.

Of course, I'm open to other ideas.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,030
  • Sep 7, 2017 7:00pm Sep 7, 2017 7:00pm
Quoting Skeptic
So I'm but a baby trader here, but here's what I see. Price has already hit the daily chart-highlighted resistance area. Strong news tomorrow will probably break psychological resistance at ~1.2100 and ~1.2060. I agree that the potential to hit 1.2000 level is possible. If somehow price breaks through all of this, the weekly snippet I have shows that there isn't all that much resistance further down. Of course, I'm open to other ideas. {image} {image}
looks right to me.
  • #12,031
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:14pm Sep 7, 2017 8:14pm
I don't see any reason that stops it not to reach 1.19. No sign of Fed rate hike yet.
  • #12,032
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:55pm Sep 7, 2017 8:55pm
Quoting umbrella man
I don't see any reason that stops it not to reach 1.19. No sign of Fed rate hike yet.
Like I said, I'm a baby trader. I've only recently worked through some kinks in my trading.

I'm hoping for 200 pips tomorrow.
  • #12,033
  • Sep 8, 2017 2:13am Sep 8, 2017 2:13am
Quoting Skeptic
{quote} Like I said, I'm a baby trader. I've only recently worked through some kinks in my trading. I'm hoping for 200 pips tomorrow.
So far downtrend is good, but its friday, i'd Watch out as dollar index is hitting yearly lows...
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #12,034
  • Sep 8, 2017 4:21am Sep 8, 2017 4:21am
I've refrained from posting in FF for a long time now but I wanted to share something some may find useful. (I trade reversals).

USD/CAD triggered shorts in the 240 and daily time frames sometime ago and the current price resides within a downward channel.

That said as 'KeenPips' has pointed out the price has moved a long way from its 'Mean' and technically there are two levels where price will revert back to which are:

 

  1. In the 240 minute timeframes: 1.2335
  2. In the Daily timeframes: 1.3164

From my side I'm Long and looking to add in

  • #12,035
  • Sep 8, 2017 5:33am Sep 8, 2017 5:33am
For anyone building a short usd position. The usdjpy just broke some major weekly support. It's a perfect compliment to a usdcad long term short due to poor usd data and the NK wildcard.
Stacking pips since 2002
  • #12,036
  • Sep 8, 2017 5:55am Sep 8, 2017 5:55am
Quoting FXClarity
I've refrained from posting in FF for a long time now but I wanted to share something some may find useful. (I trade reversals). USD/CAD triggered shorts in the 240 and daily time frames sometime ago and the current price resides within a downward channel. That said as 'KeenPips' has pointed out the price has moved a long way from its 'Mean' and technically there are two levels where price will revert back to which are: In the 240 minute timeframes: 1.2335 In the Daily timeframes: 1.3164 From my side I'm Long and looking to add in
I've seen some buyers Inside 1.206x....looking for something around here and below so i'll start buying
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #12,037
  • Sep 8, 2017 6:12am Sep 8, 2017 6:12am
Quoting arigoldman
A new bottom in sight. Expecting more downside.
Me too. Frankly, I would be surprised if it stops depreciating at 1.2000, which it will almost certainly reach soon.
  • #12,038
  • Sep 8, 2017 6:45am Sep 8, 2017 6:45am
So I'm reading an economic report from the bank of canada......so glad I did......well.......I did post the link.....it's a good read.....the black lines are the forecasted boudaries from now until the next 12 to 11 months......and check out the most recent candle.....hhhhmmmmmmm m

Here is the link just in case you are interested,,,,
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...fn_MmrMs3L4XXw
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Focus
  • #12,039
  • Sep 8, 2017 6:51am Sep 8, 2017 6:51am
Quoting mrstblefx
So I'm reading an economic report from the bank of canada......so glad I did......well.......
You told us to trade the chart! Are you changing your mind?

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #12,040
  • Sep 8, 2017 7:23am Sep 8, 2017 7:23am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} You told us to trade the chart! Are you changing your mind? Trade safe and prosper. KP

Lol.........I never met a 100 percent technical trader..........I like knowing why charts move.........lol.........I make my decisions ultimately on charts tho...........lol.........
And check out this funny looking Canadian dollar futures chart........man o man.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus
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