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Yelena Shuletyeva has been a devoted watcher of the Federal Reserve and its policy changes over the past 20 years, previously as an economist at BNP Paribas and Bloomberg LP. is now now putting all of her experience and analytical capabilities to work as a Senior US Economist for The Conference Board Economy, Strategy & Finance Center. As she takes over as ...

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Monetary policymakers are sometimes accused of being too quick to tighten monetary policy out of concern that a strong labor market or rapid economic growth will cause higher inflation. An often-cited exception occurred in 1996 when Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan resisted calls to raise the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy rate despite ...

The U.S. central bank may need to raise interest rates "in the near term" if coming data show inflation continuing well above the 2% target, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday, in remarks that characterized monetary policy as being at a "crossroads." Waller told the New York Association for Business Economics that he'll be leaning ...

Our outlook remains broadly unchanged from our June forecast, reflecting a series of offsetting developments since our last update. Financial markets have remained volatile, oil prices have declined, and the Canadian dollar has weakened. At the same time, incoming Canadian data have largely reinforced the dynamics outlined in our June note, suggesting that ...

Trump will support Russia sanctions bill - CNN citing official

Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School professor of economics and former Federal Reserve Governor, joins Scarlet Fu and Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Money."

The Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government (MTS) is prepared by the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Department of the Treasury and, after approval by the Fiscal Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, is normally released on the 8th workday of the month following the reporting month. The publication is based on data ...

Fed's Waller: Want markets to have as much information as possible Fed's Waller: Surprising people is not a good idea. Fed's Waller: Will Treat Another Higher Reading On Inflation As A ‘Signal, Not Noise’ - It Will Be A Useful Signal - If Inflation Comes Down In Next Reading, Will Need A Couple More That Way To See That As 'Signal'

Thank you, Yelena, and thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today. My subject is the outlook for the U.S. economy and the implications for monetary policy. Spending by households and businesses has been resilient, despite higher goods costs generated by tariffs and the surge in energy prices from the Middle East conflict. The labor market has also been stable, with employment close to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) maximum-employment goal. So I feel the real side of the economy is in good shape. But I believe inflation and monetary policy are at a crossroads. Despite higher tariffs in 2025, core inflation held steady for most of the year. But it then began to rise in January. After the Middle East conflict disrupted production and transportation of petroleum and other commodities, this increase accelerated. Conventional wisdom among central bankers is to look through one-time price increases, such as those associated with higher tariffs and a jump in oil prices. But, at this point, I am concerned about the elevated pace of core inflation this year, which has steadily moved up—as measured by the 12-month personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rate—from 3 percent in December 2025 to 3.4 percent in May. Core inflation excludes the direct effects of consumer energy prices, and we are past the point where we can attribute large price increases to earlier tariff hikes. So, the question is, will core inflation continue on its upward trajectory, or has it reached a turning point where it will begin to decline back toward our 2 percent target? The direction it takes has very different implications for the path of monetary policy. Because core inflation is a good guide to future inflation, I am concerned that, if this upward trend continues, it will be hard to push inflation back toward the Committee's 2 percent goal with monetary policy at its current setting. As I said in a May 22 speech, I am cognizant of the mistake we made in 2021 by not responding sooner to the high inflation we observed, and I am determined to avoid repeating it.2 But the desire to avoid past mistakes is often the author of new ones. I argued in remarks on July 6 that one of the most important jobs of a policymaker is to clearly assess current economic conditions and not just rely on past experience to guide judgments of where policy should be headed.3 As I will explain, there are some crucial differences now compared with 2021, and there is still a credible case for inflation to begin to fall back to our 2 percent goal with policy at its current setting. But I am concerned about the equally plausible case that data in the coming weeks will show that inflation will remain at its elevated level or even trend higher, requiring tighter monetary policy in the near term. I am committed to returning inflation to the FOMC's 2 percent g FED'S WALLER SAYS HE IS COMMITTED TO RETURNING INFLATION TO 2% TARGET; ALSO TO AVOID OVER-TIGHTENING POLICY AND RISKING RECESSION || CONCERNED ABOUT EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE CASE THAT TIGHTER POLICY WILL BE NEEDED FED'S WALLER SAYS HE EXPECTS A DECELERATION IN HEADLINE INFLATION STARTING WITH THIS WEEK'S INFLATION DATA; BUT WILL BE FOCUSED ON CORE READING || REAL SIDE OF ECONOMY IN GOOD SHAPE WALLER SAYS HE IS DETERMINED TO AVOID REPEATING FED'S MISTAKE IN 2021; BUT LABOR MARKET NOT AS TIGHT NOW, AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ANCHORED || HOUSEHOLD, BUSINESS SPENDING RESILIENT DESPITE HIGHER GOODS COSTS FROM TARIFFS, ENERGY PRICE SURGE FROM MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT Waller: We’re past the point where we can attribute past increases to tariffs. “No matter how you cut it, or what measure you want to use, inflation is up this year” “Sometimes a big change in only one component of core prices can move the total significantly without reflecting…