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Trading with the Market Flow

Quoting kraven
Sunny you may benefit from the 'free trade' method of R:R. Basically take half when you reach 1:1, leave stop where it is and let it run. what i like to do is remove between 50 and 80% at a given target often 1:1.5 and let the rest run, at every big price run i then move my stops to positive.
Thanks Kraven.

Yes, I like what you have suggested.

The idea of taking some of the table and leaving the stop where it is appeals to me greatly. Let the market do it's thing
and if it runs in your favour you've at least caught a larger portion of the move even if it briefly comes back to your entry point.

So far I've only been risking 1% per trade, but looking at the amount of trades I take I'm thinking I'll dial this up to 2%
and split my positions (1% each) and see how that goes.
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
The Week that Was: August 3rd to 7th.

It was a busy week for me work wise so not a lot of time to watch charts and execute trades.

However, I did take a trade on EURJPY sell trade and easily got stopped out of that one.

I'm still trying to learn as much as I can about reading volume but not too much that my method becomes too complicated
or I get too confused and 2nd guess myself.

When looking at new volume indicators I like to look back over my past trades with this method and see what the trade looked like
using those indicators, both the good and bad trades.

For the moment, I'm going to give 2 new volume indicators are run. They will be the Broker Tick PVA and TVI volume indicators found here on FF.

I like the TVI as it shows a nice flow of how the ticks are moving and the Broker Tick PVA seems good at highlighting those bars that
have significance with their tick volume.
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
The Week that Was: August 3rd to 7th.

Possible Trades:Tuesday, Aug 4th I was looking for LONGS on GBPCAD & USD CAD and SHORTS on CAD JPY

GBPCAD
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All too difficult to find a trade on this one for me. Price did come back down to near the DFB area and formed and inside bullish reversal on 12:00 candle with green volume but TVI was still red and sideways.

After that price was pretty much sideways until Wed 09:00 candle with strong move up but very close to recent highs.

USD CAD
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Nice DFB on Monday had me looking for LONGS on Tuesday.
Purple Doji on 11:00 candle at DFB area would have been gutsy trade with good R:R if held. TVI was still red though.
Waiting for TVI to turn green by 18:00 (very late my time) saw nice small pin bar form with nice volume and price took off for rest of NY session.
Easy 1:2 if using 30 pip stop on this one.

CAD JPY
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Quite a weak DFB on this one at quite a significant support area for this pair.
A small purple inside doji showed up around 12:00 candle above DFB area but TVI still green.
TVI turned red late in NY session and price pushed back down to previous lows.
Very poor R:R on this one so would have been difficult to take the trade for sure.
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
  • Post #44
  • Quote
  • Edited 2:25am Aug 8, 2015 1:50am | Edited 2:25am
The Week that Was: August 3rd to 7th.

Possible Trades:Wednesday, Aug 5th I was looking for LONGS on GBPCAD, USD CAD & USD CHF and SHORTS on CAD JPY, EUR JPY, EUR AUD, NZDUSD & EUR USD

Above charts show there was nothing worth taking for GBPCAD, USD CAD & CAD JPY on this day.

EUR JPY
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Early in London trading (11:00) there was a bearish inside bar with red volume but previous 2 bars were bullish pins at Asian session lows.
TVI was green anyway.
From there price kept moving up and my trade was taken on a green bar rejection of the DFB.
Not a very pretty ENTRY in hindsight. TVI was flowing green all the way.
19:00 did show some sellinf but on weaker volume and TVI still strong to the upside.

USD CHF
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This was a beautifully strong DFB from Tuesday with price finding a nice line in the sand that lasted the rest of the week.

Early London session (10:00) showed a very nice Bullish Outside Bar with green volume but no follow through and stops easily taken on 15:00 pin bar.
Nice to note TVI was red the whole way through this price action.
By the time TVI turned green there was a small pin with green volume during Frankfurt hour on Thursday.
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
What's in play for Monday, August, 10th?

Here is a quick list of pairs in no particular order that I'm watching.
It doesn't mean I'm trading all or any of them, just that their Daily Fractal Break is still in play.


BUYS ONLY

AUD CHF
NZD CHF


SELLS ONLY

GBP JPY
GBP AUD


I'll post charts of the trades after they have been closed (win or loss) to see what I and anybody else who passes by can learn.
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
What's in play for Tuesday, August, 11th?

Here is a quick list of pairs in no particular order that I'm watching.
It doesn't mean I'm trading all or any of them, just that their Daily Fractal Break is still in play.


BUYS ONLY

AUD CHF
NZD CHF
CAD CHF
AUD JPY


SELLS ONLY

GBP JPY (Pending Sell Order)
GBP AUD
CHF JPY

I'll post charts of the trades after they have been closed (win or loss) to see what I and anybody else who passes by can learn.
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
I've been doing a lot of reading over the weekend on various threads that catch my eye
and have picked up a few things that I will probably incorporate into my method.

Firstly, I'm really impressed with Pharley's Entry Method that he talks about in his Support & Resistance thread
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=551541

I think I can take advantage of this as I can fib the move that broke the Daily Fractal and either look for a price action or blind entry
around the 50% retracement mark. This also gives me a place for my Stop and a possible location for a target.

Next, I've always understood that some of the best gains can be made when you can add to a winning position, but I've never found a way
that seems to suit my eye. Spyderman is doing some really nice work in his REPS thread especially with how he intends to use 50% of current profit
to add on to winning positions. This is something I'd like to explore.

Finally, my life is a busy one and so for the time being I'm going to move myself up to the H4 charts so that I only need to check the
markets 6 times a day. Trading hourly charts is just a bit unbalanced for my current stage of life.

I've been through my trades since starting this method and have applied my proposed changes and it looks like there would have been a few missed winners the odd loser, but on the whole a lot more profit as I could hold my trades for longer.

We'll see how it goes.
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
Quoting SunnyFx2002
I've been doing a lot of reading over the weekend on various threads that catch my eye and have picked up a few things that I will probably incorporate into my method. Firstly, I'm really impressed with Pharley's Entry Method that he talks about in his Support & Resistance thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=551541 I think I can take advantage of this as I can fib the move that broke the Daily Fractal and either look for a price action or blind entry around the 50% retracement mark. This also gives me a place for my Stop...
Hey Sunny

Yes, Pharley's, is an interesting thread. He pass along this interesting peace of info http://beatfxmarket.com/forex-suppor...istance-lines/ as well. The peace I find most interesting in this article is the specific comment made regarding marking Support Resistance that has a strong / aggressive move away from the level. Interesting the same approach is used in Supply Demand.. With Market Flow.. I wonder if that would make a difference..How strong a move away from the Fractal occurred... before the break of the Daily Fractal level. Especially when you have multiple Fractal consolidating or looking to see if this Fractal is a strong area..Just another way to define possibly???

I tend to use FIB's in my trading and look to the 50 and 68 retrace to see if the line up with a Supply / Demand Level.. You will also find that Market Flow tends ( not always ) line up with a Supply Demand level as well.. You may have to move up or down in TF to see these level.

In the end.. interesting ideas.. Need to take a look at Spyderman thread.

Enjoying your thread
Good trading to ya !!
TSD
Quoting TraderinSD
{quote} Hey Sunny Yes, Pharley's, is an interesting thread. He pass along this interesting peace of info http://beatfxmarket.com/forex-suppor...istance-lines/ as well. The peace I find most interesting in this article is the specific comment made regarding marking Support Resistance that has a strong / aggressive move away from the level. Interesting the same approach is used in Supply Demand.. With Market Flow.. I wonder if that would make a difference..How strong a move away from the Fractal occurred... before the break of the...
Awesome info TraderinSD.

Thanks for stopping by and sharing the link and your thoughts. I'll head on over and read the article to see what I can absorb.

I really get what you're saying, when seeing a strong/aggressive move that powered through a daily fractal / or cluster of fractals it perhaps would be nice to fib that move as well as see what S/D areas were already there or might have been created in that move.

I've also been studying my charts for when there has been a fractal break but no follow through, a false daily fractal break per se, these often seem to provide signals on where supply / demand is located and I'm trying to apply the simple volume indicator from PVSRA thread to identify H4 bars that possibly indicate exhaustion or where the "insiders" are placing their positions to go the other way.

Good stuff!
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
Quoting SunnyFx2002
{quote} Awesome info TraderinSD. Thanks for stopping by and sharing the link and your thoughts. I'll head on over and read the article to see what I can absorb. I really get what you're saying, when seeing a strong/aggressive move that powered through a daily fractal / or cluster of fractals it perhaps would be nice to fib that move as well as see what S/D areas were already there or might have been created in that move. I've also been studying my charts for when there has been a fractal break but no follow through, a false daily fractal...
Hey Sunny,

Yes.. PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis).. I have poked my nose in there from time to time. I tend to look a volume in a more contextual way. Rather simple actually. Not all large range bar/candles have high volume. Questions I ask myself.. Was there volume associated with this move.. Was it significant volume in relation to the preceding?? What was the overall PA and volume??...(note high volume only comes from one source.. Institutional.. No one that I know of has this capacity in a trillion $$ market).. So no matter the broker... they, the broker, will record some volume structure...volume is volume. When it is higher (than the preceding PA) or lower (than the preceding PA).. For example.. If price is moving up and there are major SR or SD levels ahead.. if there is no volume where do you think price will go?.. Nowhere it just drifts...Higher volume into a SD level.. Who is doing that??? SM's.. Why ??? Look at the previous structure.. What did they do before? Once price slams into the area.. Range gets small.. volume drops.. Where is price going to do?? Drift.. then volume re enters. Maybe not is a big way but !!! .. bigger than previous, given the location ... Again just contextual .. I tend to move around in different TF as i believe the Smart Money does the same thing.. How else can you explain what one can clearly see on one chart but unable to see on another. It not the exact art/science of VSA.. but it does not need to be .. At least for me

VSA tends to focus you on one Bar/Candle and on Volume Bar ( most of the time ).. I prefer the larger picture as it relates to a single or multiple volume bars..Seems easier

I like the Market Flow method as it very direct in it's approach

TSD
What's in play for Wednesday, August, 12th?

Here is a quick list of pairs in no particular order that I'm watching.
It doesn't mean I'm trading all or any of them, just that their Daily Fractal Break is still in play.


BUYS ONLY

EUR JPY (NEW)
EUR NZD (NEW)
CAD CHF


SELLS ONLY

CHF JPY (TRADE OPEN)

I'll post charts of the trades after they have been closed (win or loss) to see what I and anybody else who passes by can learn.
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
Quoting TraderinSD
{quote} Hey Sunny, Yes.. PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis).. I have poked my nose in there from time to time. I tend to look a volume in a more contextual way. Rather simple actually. Not all large range bar/candles have high volume. Questions I ask myself.. Was there volume associated with this move.. Was it significant volume in relation to the preceding?? What was the overall PA and volume??...(note high volume only comes from one source.. Institutional.. No one that I know of has this capacity in a trillion $$ market).. So no matter the broker......
Gee, that's some information right there!

I've seen what you can do on a 1 minute chart and it blows me away so believe me I'm listening when you are talking about
how you read volume. It will take much more chart time of course, but I'll see if I can apply what you've said to my 4 hour charts to see if I can read these Daily Fractal Breaks better.

I agree that multi-time frame analysis is essential, my problem is that I get pretty confused when I start jumping around different timeframes so I need
to sort myself out a little better as I'm trying to read the story.

The advantage I have with this method is that it can quickly narrow down the amount of pairs I need to look at as I'm only looking at those with a Daily Fractal Break in play at the moment.

I'll try and post some charts to show where my analysis is at and if you ever have a few seconds it would be awesome if you could drop me a few hints on what you see as well. I'm very much a visual learner so that would be of great assistance to me.
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
EUR NZD

Armchair Analysis

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Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
Quoting SunnyFx2002
{quote} Gee, that's some information right there! I've seen what you can do on a 1 minute chart and it blows me away so believe me I'm listening when you are talking about how you read volume. It will take much more chart time of course, but I'll see if I can apply what you've said to my 4 hour charts to see if I can read these Daily Fractal Breaks better. I agree that multi-time frame analysis is essential, my problem is that I get pretty confused when I start jumping around different timeframes so I need to sort myself out a little...
Your statement-
I agree that multi-time frame analysis is essential, my problem is that I get pretty confused when I start jumping around different timeframes so I need to sort myself out a little better as I'm trying to read the story.

When moving from a larger TF to a smaller TF. Think in terms of looking inside the trade. I have mentioned in some of my posts previously about this "look inside" the trade.. Example: When you look at PA from this perspective you are seeing additional points of reference, the internals of a particular move if you will. Looking at a smaller TF will tell you what lies ahead.. Supply/Demand areas.. Some Support / Resistance out in front of you. I'm of the opinion that Institutional money is at work in all time frames. If we loose site of that, we may not manage the trade as effectively as we can. If you don't know about these areas, you may not manage them correctly..We can get in anywhere.. We can get out anywhere.. It is how we manage our position that really defines whether we are profitable or not. I look for the obvious when looking at smaller TF .. Again, Supply/Demand, Support / Resistance. We see so many times where a move is going well .. then all of a sudden it turns.. for no "apparent" reason. A smaller TF will often give you that reason, and many times its major obvious. If price moved away from this smaller TF "sharply" it may do it again.. Your are managing to it.. If "a" happens then I do "b"... Can I handle the retrace..Where is price likely to go on the retrace. These bit of info many times will keep you in the trade.. not get shaken out.. Why?? Because you know why this is happening.. Its as much mental and it is method.

Going up in TF.. We are looking for what I call the "pressure". Is the pressure Up, Down or Neutral.. When the pressure is Neutral and we approach these areas mentioned, price can go anywhere??? Hence the reason why we need to know and manage to it..

Hope this helps.. This will take some time to get used to .. to see if you will.. eventually it will become clear.

TSD
CHF JPY

SELL

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This one was one of those trades that immediately after I entered it goes 80 pips against me in the next 4 hour candle.

It's pretty obvious that I was selling at the wrong time / wrong area. Taking another look at the chart using a simple
supply / demand indicator shows me I was selling right into a H4 demand level and was easily stopped out.

On to the next one, hopefully a bit wiser.
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
What's in play for Thursday, August, 13th?

Here is a quick list of pairs in no particular order that I'm watching.
It doesn't mean I'm trading all or any of them, just that their Daily Fractal Break is still in play.


BUYS ONLY

EUR JPY
EUR NZD
EUR CHF
EUR USD (Daily Supply just overhead)
EUR CAD (Daily Supply just overhead)


SELLS ONLY

NONE

I'll post charts of the trades after they have been closed (win or loss) to see what I and anybody else who passes by can learn.
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
Quoting TraderinSD
When moving from a larger TF to a smaller TF. Think in terms of looking inside the trade....
Thanks for taking the time to explain about how you see "inside the trade".

I'm keen to take my trading to the next level so I will attempt to apply this to my trading from here on. I'm certain
it will take plenty of screen time to even begin to really understand and see what you've explained.

I guess as long as I keep it all under the guises of my Daily Fractal Break method I'm sure it will benefit me greatly as I have already
seen with the CHF JPY sell trade I took 2 days ago, before applying this.

Cheers

Sunny
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
Quoting SunnyFx2002
{quote} Thanks for taking the time to explain about how you see "inside the trade". I'm keen to take my trading to the next level so I will attempt to apply this to my trading from here on. I'm certain it will take plenty of screen time to even begin to really understand and see what you've explained. I guess as long as I keep it all under the guises of my Daily Fractal Break method I'm sure it will benefit me greatly as I have already seen with the CHF JPY sell trade I took 2 days ago, before applying this. Cheers Sunny

Yes, stay with the Daily Fractal Break method. You appear to have an eye for it. What is important (major) is that you make it you own. IMHO it has sound trading principles. In trading any method I think one of the major keys to being successful is the risk/reward structure. If you can quantify you reward targets some were around 3:1 or better you can afford to run an expectancy of 50%. What this means is you can take five loss in a row and still be very profitable. Here's the problem almost all traders, wanna be's, etc face. They simply cannot sit through that many loosing trades psychologically. Many say that can but the reality is they cant. So the hunt for higher expectancy method/system to avoid the pain.. totally forgetting about the profit potential. Hence what I cal the REWIRE.. you simply have to change your thinking. Sadly most are not willing.. They will give you all the excuses to justify why they should even subscribe to this thought process. Blah, Blah, Blah.. yet they are the first ones to tell you that this method, that system does not work. One must change their thinking.

Manage your risk % as it relates to your true account size.. Using Full, mini's or micro's...Define the TP 3:1 or greater... How you determine?...Expectancy should be no less than 50%.

Just some thoughts
good trading
TSD
EUR USD

BUY

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Even though this was another loss, I'm certain I'm getting a lot closer now with this method.

I waited for price to get back to the DFB area which coincided with my Entry area of a FIB that I drew for the move that broke the DFB.

My trigger was a mix of a H1 Inside bar at Market Entry (riskier) and a M15 also small confirmation entry (DTFL) which I’ve traded in the past.

The H1 PVA showed consecutive red bars followed by a blue bar showing possible buyers coming back into the market but the blue bar did have lower volume compared to previous candles.

News came out at 9:30 p.m. and sent price a bit lower which was enough to take my tight stop.

Something to Note: The bar that stopped me out drove down to the real H1 demand (with red PVA) and the following H1 candle had a nice bullish close with a higher high than previous candle and PVA was blue with equal volume. I was asleep.

Best trade was EUR CAD with very nice price action at DFB. Disappointed that I focused to much on EUR USD and didn't take that one.
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
Quoting TraderinSD
{quote} Yes, stay with the Daily Fractal Break method. You appear to have an eye for it. What is important (major) is that you make it you own. IMHO it has sound trading principles. In trading any method I think one of the major keys to being successful is the risk/reward structure. If you can quantify you reward targets some were around 3:1 or better you can afford to run an expectancy of 50%. What this means is you can take five loss in a row and still be very profitable. Here's the problem almost all traders, wanna be's, etc face. They simply...
Yes, that is it right there in a nutshell!

REWIRE, I love it! Providing one has a sound, logical trading method, which I really think I do, one has just got to get better at trading it and understand that the losses
are an essential part of any trading method and there is a lot to be learned from them.

I will definitely take your advice and work on getting my R:R to at least 1:3. When looking back at my trades since I started this I can easily see that on my winners my stops were never threatened and there was a lot more profit on the table than I took.

In the next day or so, time permitting, I'll journal my trading rules for this method just to concrete them a little more into my head by posting in this public space.
If/When you have time TSD, as you are generous with your words and advice, please feel free to provide any further comments or advice on them.

Cheers

Sunny
Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
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