First-Strike & One-Night-Stand users, show yourself and your mods, if you dare!!!

Seeking,
Its been a long time since I saw any of your posts.
I both agree and disagree...

1. Agree: Markets change. Don't overoptimise.
I would say when using EA to optimise (as I do), remember to re-optimise when Market Volatility changes. Note that if I traded live with a broker such as OandA (offering infinately variable position sizes) I would have no need to trade a modified version.

2. FSPlus system 'works' as standard. It is a set and forget system and the more often you look at open trades, the fewer pips (less % profit) you will make.

3. Disagree: For a system based upon weekly and hourly prices, using large Stop Losses, you do not need tick data. 1min data is sufficient - we are not scalping here!

4. Selling of Email lists: I have never seen any evidence of Joel selling Email Lists. I respect him and feel he would not do that. If he did, then I would feel most let down - as I do with CW71.
Having said that, I have been easily duped by some scammers - even when warned by some J16 veterans about Jacko - ha ha.

Ian

P.S. I do get lots of FX bot advertising, but then I made the mistake of trying to learn how they made their fantstic profits - apart form having a 3pip TP and a 600pip SL.

sure is good to out in the openish again.
lets hope this may get a kick start again.


thanks for the sugestion to get it out of the bin Bill.

cheers
geoff

I don't get EA system spam at the address I use for FSPlus updates...or gmail just blocks it. <3 gmail

Me either. I opened a fresh gmail account for my ONS and FS notifications. Haven't got a bit of spam.

me niether, but i will tell you i have recieved more spam since opening a google account.

Okay, thanks for the feedback guys. I really wish I knew how these things end up in my inbox and that there were a way of tracking who "did it".
Spam is like digital VD, once you got it it hurts every day and is hard to get rid of :/
I really don't know who / what could have done it, that inbox that it gets delivered to is used pretty much only for "serious" stuff and I don't know how it could have gotten out.
Exception being a brute force spambot which simply shoots things out to "possible combination" email addresses.
Glad to hear it's most likely not JR

It's a real shame he's basically stopped posting, I really would love to know what he did / how he managed his trades when Silver dipped from 16$ => 12.4$.
Wonder if he simply held, held, held and did nothing at all..(except for perhaps ending up buying yet more).

I bet he averaged down (or up?) his position as he has in the past if he did anything at all. Remember he's in at like 9.50 or 11 or something isn't he? His bet was "we will see $21 silver before we see $3 silver" so I assume he will hold until one or the other happens.

Personally, I think he is a bit fanatical about silver (don't blame him, he's been attached to it since the 70s), and he (as well as we) should probably be leaving emotions like that at the door.

Oh, and also, he keeps sending out the emails, and they are definitely not automated (he screws them up sometimes, or adds personal notes). So it's not like he's given up on the strategies. Or I guess it could all be marketing, but I'm going with simplest explanation is most correct as to why he hasn't updated the blog recently: he's probably busy.

I have not read every post in this thread however i thought i would add my two cents.

After reviewing Tkimble 's weekly straddle thread and Joel's old rules regarding First Strike trades i began trading my own slightly changed system last year on demo and this year live.

I currently trade E/U, G/U and G/J. I write down price 2.5 hours before London open (latest i want to stay up) on Sunday night and simply place buy stop's and sell stops 50 pips above and below price. I used fixed stop losses on all three and they do not vary even if the market volatility changes. My stops are tight and range between 33 and 60 pips plus the given spread.

One important deviation is that i will close trades through out the week as i see price run into serious daily or weekly resistance. For example today i closed all three trades after one profitable day. This is a serious change from the original systems and opens up the all important age old question of when to take profit. I am not finished adapting this system to me as i am still in a fairly steep learning curve overall in FX. However i personally cannot allow pairs that have been in profit by 200 - 400 pips only to close on break even or a loss.

I realize this change of course takes away from the simple and mechanical nature of this edge and introduces a level of subjectiveness. As mentioned it is a personal decision and is certainly not for everyone.

I am a newb and I have started 1 year ago - and this is my first post. I did a lot of paper trading and research and I came across FSP. The blog of Joel is really a source of wisdom and got me into new ideas about trading.

I have been following the FSP system and the blog of Joel for about 1 year and I have also been forward testing the system on a small account.

I do not consistently take the trades every week - currently the markets imho are just too much ranging. I will be running the system again when there is a clear breakout. That is now my discretion based on learnt experience and lack of ability to go through a long streak of losses. (I am working on that part.)

Recently, I started some backtesting on paper for the past 6 months. Since the system is really simple I wonder why there was no EA made so far. One that also allows to change the settings for backtesting.

To calculate the entry levels I use the Fibonacci-Tool in MT4 and set the levels according system rules.

My observations:

1.
The observation I made just through eyeballing is this: When the buystop or sellstop is hit (0.3 of previous week range from London open) - almost always will price go to 0.5 (which is on the Fibotool the high or low); and then further hopefully.

I see this as a potential take profit point for may be half the position size or whatever. Some more backtesting needs to be done.

2.
Something that somehow does not feel right for me is the consideration of the previous week range. Many times it is too small - result: entry is triggered and position stopped out the same afternoon. Range too large: No entry at all or worse, entry at the very end of a weekly move and then stopped out. However: the system still works.

I did some eyeballing-testing by not adjusting the entry based on the previous weekly range but just using every week a standard range that I thought is right and an average for GBP/USD. Result: Less quickly hit SL, the 0.5 level gets hit almost always (TP could smoothen the equity curve).

I wonder if someone else has been doing some testing on this system? And what are your findings?
What about an EA precisely following Joels rules? Could not find one. Can someone write one?
Has someone come up with a daily version of that system? I did some very crude testing on excel but could not find something workable.

Many thanks to all the ppl in this forum posting very clever content that helped me a lot becoming a better trader.

Getrich Fast

The original FirstStrike system did not take the previous week's range into account, and Joel believes that FirstStrike Plus is an improvement over that first system.

Personally, I would like to modify the system as to stay in the breakout winning trades as long as possible, but that opens a different can of worms.

There have been backtest threads on the system...have you searched?

Hello guys,

I have been around a bit in the trading world, traded for a living but only on a discretionary basis. My programming skills are non-existing but I know about systems. I know that robust, simple systems based on real market characteristics are the real thing. First Strike Plus seems like that. I am in for making a daily version out of First Strike Plus. Let's review the rules for a daily version:

- at 06:00 GMT calculate the ATR of the previous calendar day
- multiply that figure by .30 to obtain the buy-stop and sell-stop for this session
- at 06:00 GMT place a buy-stop and sell-stop in the market (0.3 of ATR of previous day, placed at the London open!)
- multiply ATR of previous day by .10 to calculate stop-loss levels. If you get long you will place a position stop below the London day's open. Reverse instructions for shorts.

These are the basics given to us by Joel Rensink. These basics mainly concern the entry. To make First Strike Plus perform on a daily basis we can think of the following:

- test other percentages of ATR for calculating buy-stops and sell-stops. What about entering at 0.2 ATR? Or at 0.35 ATR?
- how do we trail the trade? Just some ideas: follow the trade on 15 minute bars, place a Channel Exit followed by a Chandelier Exit, codes are below. Or do we keep the trade and exit end of day at 09:00 GMT? Or just keep the winning trade into the next day and repeat entries for multiple contracts?
- what about applying First Strike Plus for daily use only during days/weeks with low volatility? Low volatility expressed like 'lower than average daily ATR of last year'?

Who is willing to program this all in one code so that we can come up with best testing results? I use TS8 and it would be lovely to receive it in Easy Language

Kind regards,

Ed

Chandelier Exit

TradeStation code:

[SameTickOpt = True]
INPUTS:
Stop_Multiplier(3),
ATR_Length(21) ;
VARIABLES:
Avg_True_Range( 0 ),
Market_Position( 0 ),
Trade_High ( 0 ) ;
Avg_True_Range = AvgTrueRange( ATR_Length ) ;
Market_Position = I_MarketPosition ;
if Market_Position = 1 then
begin
if Market_Position[1] < 1 then
Trade_High = High
else Trade_High = MaxList( Trade_High, High ) ;
Plot1( Trade_High - ( Avg_True_Range * Stop_Multiplier ) ) ;
end ;


Channel Exit

The Channel Exit strategy is a common one - the channel low exit. In this case, the stop loss or exit is set to the low of the last n-bars. The concept of a trailing stop at a low point in the market is very popular and has long been used successfully by market technicians. However, the exact number of days for the look-back period is probably less important.

Hi kiers, welcome to the thread. I believe someone had a thread going about a daily version of this system; I will try to find it. He had word documents with trading results as well. I don't mean to be a tease, but the results were pretty exciting

Hi Cosgrove,

Would be wonderful to receive that on this thread. Let's all work on a daily version and make money with it.

It's actually in this thread =x

check posts 51 and 115

Hi Kiers,


this is interesting, its along the lines you are looking at, and it can be basically worked out.

good luck,

also search DaBuschi , he has a daily version going.

snap

geoffrod

Hi Guys

Been lurking FF for a few months now, love the thread, i'm going to start trading FSP and ONS from next week along with DIBS. I'm going to trade all the systems purely from the instructions except when i have a NR4 bar i'm going to double position size.

I'm also very interested in how FSP and ONS would work on a daily TF compared with the weekly

Also to tdion and darkstar, appreciate the constructive criticism

I'm in Melbourne

My advice is, don't be greedy.

FS and ONS work (especially FS) well as they are. FWIW I spent a fair bit of time using an EA to backtest (over 5 years) variations of FS. I did not find a day anywhere near as good as Monday for it.
I do trade an Asian range breakout system (designed from by backtesting)
which trades slightly later on Mondays and Fridays - but again Monday is the most profitable day.

I think you will win the lottery several times over before Darkstar give his opinion on somethig so simple as this.

I know that tdion will chime in, regardless of whether he has actually traded a system or not. To him, they all don't work ( because he was not successful then nobody can be!).

Ian

Hi Ian

When i say i'm interested in a daily system, i don't mean trading the FSP everyday. I was refering to adjusting the entry criteria based on the average daily range rather than the previous weekly range and would be looking to hold the position closer to 1 day than 1 week. So i would trade the original FSP on Monday's and the adjusted daily FSP on Tuesday's to Thursday's. Is this similar to what you tested? Also was your testing based on fixed entries similar to FS (even if the fixed entries are different for different pairs) or range based entries as per FSP?

Very interesting to hear about the Asian timeframe, it's actually a better timeframe for me to trade in Australia but i've been avoiding it due to the lower volatility

FYI i meant to write deathbait not darkstar in previous post (reading too many threads at once)