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Hi,

Yesterday I wanted to put order using ONS rules. For GBPUSD SMA(10) was still bellow SMA(40) but put sell 500 pips below current position does not make any sence. More looks like good opportunity to buy - it was almost on peak. What to do? Any additional indicator?
You can take the buy breakout if you want to. It still has an edge, but the edge is larger by using the SMA trend filter. I personally would not take the buy trade unless you know the stats for those trades.
"If you personalize losses, you can't trade." - Bruce Kovner
follow the rules...............

The most basic premise of any good system is not profit maximization, but risk minimization - this is done by setting trade criteria that is quite strict so that trade opportunities are not that frequent, thereby attempting minimizing your time in the market by limiting over trading.

Having said that, if you think you see some sort of set up, the only thing I can advise is to do some sort of backtesting on this set up to see if it is viable, maybe it is, maybe it isnt

Quoting sasha100
Hi,

Yesterday I wanted to put order using ONS rules. For GBPUSD SMA(10) was still bellow SMA(40) but put sell 500 pips below current position does not make any sence. More looks like good opportunity to buy - it was almost on peak. What to do? Any additional indicator?
I had a good week last week - across 3 pairs - gained about 747 pips across 3 pairs - put 8.5% on the portfolio.

As a result this week, my stops and entries are really wide. Wide enough that on 2 of the 5 pairs - one of which I am still in right now, the risk of the trade is larger than my risk tolerance - on the gbpjpy. On top of it, I think if I stop out of every trade, I may wipe out my gains from last week.

Keeping with idea of risk minimization, would I not be better off keeping in the trades from last week, but moving the stop losses up to the indicated points for this week and then if they get stopped out, I'm flat for the week and dont trade again till next week

Lets take the GBPJPY.
I got in at 143.63 last week and am up 505 pips. Based on the range of this week, the total risk on the trade is 324 pips - If I were to say in the long trade from last week, I would move my stop loss up to about 82 pips below the open so that if I do stop out, I have gained 420ish pips on the trade - (I would not enter long again this week). Or I could close the trade book 500 pips of profit and then open it again if I get a long signal and risk 324 pips - so when i stop out of that - so over the two weeks I make 180ish pips - If I did enter long this week after getting stopped out of another long trade, I would be looking at netting about 100 pips between the two trades with increased risk.

Any thoughts?

Quoting kazemakaze
you gotta subscribe to his email listing on his blog....



btw, can anyone answer this question with regards to pyramiding in FSP?

I know for FSP, Joel says the exit is based on the "First Profitable Opening", but how would pyramiding your positions affect this? At first glance, it seems to me that they are conflicting theories....

for DIBS, Joel mentions how he held onto 5 trades with a R/R of 300:1 and how to use the fat tail to you advantage. I'm just wondering if it is even possible for FSP. The First Profitable Opening Exit seems more...
Quoting razorboy
I had a good week last week - across 3 pairs - gained about 747 pips across 3 pairs - put 8.5% on the portfolio.

As a result this week, my stops and entries are really wide....



razorboy:

Your approach in the previous post should help eliminate severe drawdowns on top of what the fixed fraction approach offers already, but obviously it still limits your potential upside. So I think you would still need to use a "minimum" bet amount such as 0.5%, so you don't run into 0 when a bad streak hits and not be able to recover quickly when a few winners come along (Ziemba has a book on Kelly Criterion called 'Scenarios for Risk Management and Global Investment Strategies' with many situations and variations on it, its eye opening what a edge can give you when used with a % approach)

This is also a dilemma for FSP. In backtesting, consecutive winners don't happen that often. Average is 2 if I remembered right. I think the mechanical nature of FSP makes it hard to pyramid your positions, since at the end of most weeks, you are stopped out completely. Taking partial profits or inputting a new trade are also alternatives.
Which is why I'm also thinking of trading DIBS as well, just to be able to capture the long term trends.

Accurately managing the positions doesn't seem to be a problem as shown even in Blackjack that primitive systems work just as well because the player has the ability to execute the system much better than the more accurate but more complicated counting systems.



Also, can you (or someone else) please explain when you hold a position from the previous week, what type of orders would you enter? (Yeah I missed the big GBP/JPY move, wished I had your problem lol )

Say for 2 weeks ago's GBP/JPY short (Oct 5) was at a small loss but yet to hit the SL, so on Monday Oct 12, what orders would I enter?

a) Does it mean I go ahead and put a new set of OCO orders and let last week's and this week's order stay separate?

b) Or it means I put in a buy stop order that cannot be canceled? (unlike the regular OCO orders, since no sell stop was placed)

c) Or does the buy stop get canceled when it reaches the supposed sell stop level of 141.67, and yet no additional sell orders are placed?


Thanks
Thanks for the input. I decided to follow the rules exactly and close out the trades. As for this week, because my stops on some pairs were really wide, I just reduced my risk across the other pairs with smaller stops, and transfered the reduced risk to the pairs with wider stops, so that my overall risk for the week is within my limits. I figured it is a trade off between missing part of big move and lowering my overall risk.

As for your question. you would adjust your stop on your old trade to close out at the entry point for the new trade - this obviously only works if the new trade is going in the opposite direction to the old money losing trade. On one hand, I would not see a reason to enter two trades in the same direction

-say you were short from last week and still in negative territory and then it started to go your way. I guess if you had a new short trade placed for this week, what you could do is set the SL on the old trade to BE if the new short trade hits. This way you have not over exposed your self. This is similar to the situation I was talking about about having a winner from last week. Again it is trade off between minimizing risk and maximizing profit

Quoting kazemakaze
razorboy:

Your approach in the previous post should help eliminate severe drawdowns on top of what the fixed fraction approach offers already, but obviously it still limits your potential upside. So I think you would still need to use a "minimum" bet amount such as 0.5%, so you don't run into...
why would you need m1 data specifically to test this. I know that you would need lower timeframe data for sure - to see what came first - the higher high or lower low, did the SL number get hit before or after the entry, etc.....

But could you not do this with similar certainty using say 5 or 15 minute data?




Quoting tdion
The first half of this post confirms my own suspicion of joel's equity curves on his site. He is quick to write articles for magazines and post what seems a seemingly indestructable strategy to a website, but is not answering emails with legitimate concerns about the strategies.

deathbait, I'll take you one step further. Go to Tkimble's Weekly Scalper thread, and look at Joel's posts. He has more pretty graphs with high timeframe data (which confuses the backtester.) I got the same thing he did, until I tested with m1.

This further concludes...
damn, all 5 pairs are hitting their 10 day highs/lows, but the stupid SMA isnt crossed,
Thinking of taking those trades as well, any thoughts for or against it?
For those who are interested, joel is doing a session at 2 pm est Oct 23

http://www.tradersworld.com/conference/index.html
I discontinued my FSP trading a few weeks ago due to inconsistent returns over the past few months. I will look into trading it on a daily time frame instead of weekly.

How is everyone else doing?
Hindsight is 20/20
For the week of nov 23/09

My USD/YEN got triggered long and went 4 pips positive and then fell to stop out. On joel's newsletter, he says he went short on the Yen. Wondering if this is just a discrepancy between platforms or a modification that joel has developed but not talked about - Reverse trade if the initial position only goes positive by a few pips

Same thing happened on they GBP/YEN by about 10 pips or so

let me know if anyone had this experience


Josh
Hi Josh,

Yes, same thing happened to me though I work off an 08:00 GMT open.

However I checked with the 06:00 open against my Oanda account and the longs would have been taken for both the JPY trades.

Possibly some discretion learned from years of trading experience coming in handy there!

One day our time will come!

Best,
Timek
hey i have just started trading ons for a couple of weeks now on gu and ju havent had any profitable trades and lost a bit last week when i disregarded thursdays low on ju (thanksgiving) and went short just to seee the market turn round and bite me, wont do that again.
a quick question what time is fridays open, 8:00 0r 00:00 and is it essential to use cst or not, I'm in new zealand i figure cst would be better as thats whats been backtested?
sorry about the lame questions
cheers
There definitely were some discretionary factors involved with the Yen pairs last week. Here's some of my theories:

-a DIBS trade that happened on 11/24 resulted in about 25:1 if using a 3 day SMA
-the extremely narrow range of the Yen pair recently
-the downtrend where USDJPY at almost a 14 year low?? (after the fact it happened of course)

any thoughts?


Trnsurfer:

I use the 0:00 CST time (6GMT) since it seems that its regarded as the day's open
so does the same go for closing out the trades 0600gmt? monday
Yes, thats also when the new FSP orders are placed/closed

very convenient, but too bad its always in a drawdown
This has not been a good year for followers of FSP methodology. If you placed all the trades according to the rules you are down for the year. These results are why people give up on a system and quit placing the trades or they change the rule set to avoid the drawdowns. If the system does have a positive expectancy or edge then placing the trades is the only way to prove this to yourself. I don't personally think one year proves anything. It takes more trades than that to determine the value of a trading system.
Hi Friends,

This is my 1st post, after reading so much in FF.
Great site with alot of senior and stragist in here. I have also joined James16 private group.
Just want to know more of other trading methods out there.
I have been reading alot of post with regards to First Strike & ONS.
However, i am unable to get details of the strategy that is involved for first strike and ONS.
I have emailed TRT with regards to his method, he hasnt replied me (guess he is really busy trading in a good market!)
Appreciate if anyone can point me or email me on where i can get information of the method above.
my email address is [email protected]

greatly appreciate all your help!

Thank you.

Roy
have a look in the list of attachments
i think you will find it there

Quoting electropuppy
Hi Friends,

This is my 1st post, after reading so much in FF.
Great site with alot of senior and stragist in here. I have also joined James16 private group.
Just want to know more of other trading methods out there.
I have been reading alot of post with regards to First Strike & ONS.
However, i am unable to get details of the strategy that is involved for first strike and ONS.
I have emailed TRT with regards to his method, he hasnt replied me (guess he is really busy trading in a good market!)
Appreciate if anyone can point me or email me on...
Thank you geoffrod for pointing me to the right direction.
Wish you a great weekend.
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