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The Really Useless Thread

  • #152,601
  • Jun 15, 2017 3:12pm Jun 15, 2017 3:12pm
Quoting landre
{quote} So hould start picking up as long as there is full employment. We got the knee jerk reaction with inflation numbers but we still haven't broke the range. Markets dont really believe this hawkish tone. So...
Markets finally accept this Fed hawkish meeting..
Done today the close below 1.116 with nice break and retest on lower time frame chart (h1). Next level I will be looking for is 1.11.
  • #152,602
  • Jun 15, 2017 8:51pm Jun 15, 2017 8:51pm
If this is what it is, momentum can see eurusd go beyond 1.11 easily and extend to 1.106 ( ~0.7% from open?)

In Sisse speak, where would the ST bulls give up? 1.111 was last low that supported on weekly, 1.11 being round number, and 1.1076 being last daily low, so the last bunch of stops maybe below 1.11 (sorry just a guess and typing out loud on mobile)

For today, true momentum will not allow any reload above 1.1158, while trapping new bulls convinced by the H1/H4 pinbar. We have BOJ today but i think a as-is should allow continuation of usd strength. Ideally, chance to reload if retrace back at least 1.12 but not likely now...

For MT, i think a nice weekly close below 1.11 will definitely confirm bear, but it is too obvious and everyone will be short so...
Also took quick look at next 2 weeks calendar, not much in the way but quite a number of Fed speak, confirming US economy strength and more opinion about balance sheet reduction i suppose.

Was late to usdjpy yest, somehow the politics made me think twice even with yest dip below 109.5. With eur largely neutral will focus more on eurusd for usd play.
  • #152,603
  • Jun 15, 2017 10:05pm Jun 15, 2017 10:05pm
closed the short as we could see 1.142x next. long still open
will look to short later MAYBE
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When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #152,604
  • Jun 16, 2017 12:18am Jun 16, 2017 12:18am
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #152,605
  • Jun 16, 2017 12:29am Jun 16, 2017 12:29am
Quoting gatorinla
with the rate raise from fed. 1316 eu short looking better.. the st target has 1.1459.. the st target would be harder to reach. the .25% was expected and it may be mostly priced in. in the future it may seem by most we are inline with more raises. i personally think those raises would be less frequent or spaced further if oil drops. i see a drop to 39.9x handle on brent as a target. lower oil would decrease chances of inflation. it would probably dampen the 3% growth many forecast. the pattern for oil 1.5 years back suggested a rise to a norm level...
Hi,
With the rate raise from FED, are you gona change your bias from long to short?
What is your outlook for this pairs in long term?
For me, I think the support at 1.1108 will break and the next support level which is stronger at 1.1117(38.1% Fib)
I will keep looking closely at that level to start building my long.
How do you think?
  • #152,606
  • Jun 16, 2017 3:49am Jun 16, 2017 3:49am
from the looks of it if 1.1250 let's it we should be heading to 1.1347...
dreams do come true.
  • #152,607
  • Jun 16, 2017 9:32am Jun 16, 2017 9:32am
Quoting micho
closed the short as we could see 1.142x next. long still open will look to short later MAYBE {image} {image}
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When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #152,608
  • Jun 16, 2017 3:38pm Jun 16, 2017 3:38pm
god speed
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  • #152,609
  • Jun 16, 2017 8:10pm Jun 16, 2017 8:10pm
Certainly did not expect 1.12 that fast, but its friday so wasnt keen on new short 1.12 at the last few hours...

So in the end we have that weekly doji, but didnt close below 1.118 to give more confidence on ST bear for me...

Since the daily engulfing bar few weeks back, i think i have had at least 20 BE trades, certainly testing my patience, first time i traded this pair after 8 months. Because of Eur stength and competing flows, really need usd strength to push this down, but...

Anyway its the weekend and time for family
  • #152,610
  • Jun 16, 2017 8:50pm Jun 16, 2017 8:50pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Just from a few hours ago Oh By the way, Hi Gator............. How're you doing? {image}
sos different day.. i haven't made a trade in week or so.. i wanted to long eu on a 1109/25 drop but missed it.. or short after 1316... oh well..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #152,611
  • Jun 16, 2017 8:57pm Jun 16, 2017 8:57pm
Quoting Angelina
{quote} Hi, With the rate raise from FED, are you gona change your bias from long to short? What is your outlook for this pairs in long term? For me, I think the support at 1.1108 will break and the next support level which is stronger at 1.1117(38.1% Fib) I will keep looking closely at that level to start building my long. How do you think?
thinking after 1316/1460 it may be time to look.. i have a blind pending short at 1316 giving about 30 pips.. but will tighten because st has a 1460 target.. so i may observe 1316 trade and B.E, it when/if up 20.. its doubtful i will see it.. i dont watch so much anymore. the same with a long targeting 1316, my pending entry is the same as weeks b4. 1109/15. (i may have missed the Long). i thought 1125 was going to be hit, but the hh voided it.. i may be wrong, but i would rather short after 1316 for a new LL.. but the truth is if oil goes to 40 or less. it would make inflation less likely. making it less likely for a rate increase.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #152,612
  • Jun 18, 2017 3:15pm Jun 18, 2017 3:15pm
Guys hope everyone is having a good weekend and ready for the open.....

im feeling out of sync with UK macro outlook , especially in terms of:

(I) Scotland and N.I referendum - from what I gather SNP have lost 20+ seats so now that is looking less likely and till N.I replace with Protestants there is no chance so... Risk clearing... (++++)

(II) chancellor Philip Hammond saying today in FT how UK will be leaving free market so fewer trade partners ... (----)

(III) BOE rate hike guidance changing.. as I'm sure all are aware we saw the MPC number shift up to 3, so guessing (+++)


tried to keep the ratings in same format as you guys have done for so long, please tell me where I'm going right/wrong - thanks in advance
  • #152,613
  • Jun 19, 2017 3:00am Jun 19, 2017 3:00am
Quoting micho
god speed {image}
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  • #152,614
  • Jun 19, 2017 7:25am Jun 19, 2017 7:25am
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  • #152,615
  • Jun 19, 2017 8:19am Jun 19, 2017 8:19am
No much activity here everyone is gone?
Micho could you share your views instead of your trades?.. Or your could open a trading journal it would be more appropriate.
On Friday we have a nice retrace to 1.12 offering a good opportunity for those looking for short.
I have beeb aiming downside to 1.11 at least since fed/ecb meetings. We don't have much news this week expect speeches by FOMC members.

Dudley voter (said as dovish) was a bit more hawkish than expected today. He is expecting inflation and wages to pick up.
  • #152,616
  • Jun 19, 2017 10:00am Jun 19, 2017 10:00am
Nothing much to add i guess, we will be thrown left and right ( up/down actually) by the fedspeak mostly i guess.

Im thinking still it will be slow grind down at most based on rate difference, as euro strength still there to counter whatever usd impact.

Soon we will see buba talk, likely to be eur positive and chance for sweep of all new weak shorts...

Btw i also added another lot at 1.1206, not expect to last long too hehehe....
  • #152,617
  • Jun 19, 2017 10:09am Jun 19, 2017 10:09am
Since its just wait now, i have been looking at another trading opportunities this week

GBP is kinda nowhere for me, not high enough to short and missed the chance to long after election

Jpy i already have usd still running

Nzd looks nice to short now after a nice run, with dovish statement to push down
  • #152,618
  • Jun 19, 2017 11:39am Jun 19, 2017 11:39am
Quoting nines
Guys hope everyone is having a good weekend and ready for the open..... im feeling out of sync with UK macro outlook , especially in terms of: (I) Scotland and N.I referendum - from what I gather SNP have lost 20+ seats so now that is looking less likely and till N.I replace with Protestants there is no chance so... Risk clearing... (++++) (II) chancellor Philip Hammond saying today in FT how UK will be leaving free market so fewer trade partners ... (----) (III) BOE rate hike guidance changing.. as I'm sure all are aware we saw the MPC number shift...
i really miss the macroecon discussion here.
  • #152,619
  • Jun 19, 2017 6:32pm Jun 19, 2017 6:32pm
Quoting nines
Guys hope everyone is having a good weekend and ready for the open..... im feeling out of sync with UK macro outlook , especially in terms of: (I) Scotland and N.I referendum - from what I gather SNP have lost 20+ seats so now that is looking less likely and till N.I replace with Protestants there is no chance so... Risk clearing... (++++) (II) chancellor Philip Hammond saying today in FT how UK will be leaving free market so fewer trade partners ... (----) (III) BOE rate hike guidance changing.. as I'm sure all are aware we saw the MPC number shift...
Im no expert for sure, but my opinion is that only no.3 will directly impact outlook, the other 2 is prob just intraday impact as it happens.

How the brexit talk unfolds will definitely impact but negative more on ftse? Talks will be a long process and unless anything concrete comes out i dont want to be trapped in the middle for gbp. The recent comment by boe about current levels pushing inflation up leaves me thinking 1.25/6 as their base level for rate increase? If we are still in wide neutral zone for MT, i would prefer still to look at shorts above 1.3 and long at 1.25x for gbpusd. If usd is stretched then other gbp crosses
  • #152,620
  • Edited 10:51pm Jun 19, 2017 10:10pm | Edited 10:51pm

corrected the stop loss and entry
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