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The Really Useless Thread

  • #152,581
  • Jun 14, 2017 12:52pm Jun 14, 2017 12:52pm
Ok guys I'll give my two pence...

expecting 25bps will be ticked off the checklist with small guidance towards balance sheet reduction starting in Q4

Some dollar strength but largely a non-event for the most part
  • #152,582
  • Jun 14, 2017 1:07pm Jun 14, 2017 1:07pm
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When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #152,583
  • Jun 14, 2017 1:11pm Jun 14, 2017 1:11pm
I'm expecting a fair number of questions during the press conference about the tapering, which I then expect will be measured 'we-are-in-control-of-everything' responses intended to give the markets confidence. The byproduct may be some dollar strength. I took a short on GU as I see the near future quite out of control for the Brits, which should cause weakness short term (at least).
defense wins championships
  • #152,584
  • Jun 14, 2017 1:22pm Jun 14, 2017 1:22pm
Quoting nines
Ok guys I'll give my two pence... expecting 25bps will be ticked off the checklist with small guidance towards balance sheet reduction starting in Q4 Some dollar strength but largely a non-event for the most part
does this warrant one of sisse's [checks]?
  • #152,585
  • Jun 14, 2017 1:22pm Jun 14, 2017 1:22pm
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  • #152,586
  • Jun 14, 2017 1:36pm Jun 14, 2017 1:36pm
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  • #152,587
  • Jun 14, 2017 1:38pm Jun 14, 2017 1:38pm
in
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  • #152,588
  • Jun 14, 2017 2:25pm Jun 14, 2017 2:25pm
Quoting micho
in {image}
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  • #152,589
  • Jun 14, 2017 2:30pm Jun 14, 2017 2:30pm
4 to 1
why not
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  • #152,590
  • Jun 14, 2017 2:34pm Jun 14, 2017 2:34pm
gold free fall, no support anywhere near
euro still 2 supports close 1191 and 1185
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #152,591
  • Jun 14, 2017 5:45pm Jun 14, 2017 5:45pm
if im lucky enough
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  • #152,592
  • Jun 14, 2017 10:22pm Jun 14, 2017 10:22pm
with the rate raise from fed. 1316 eu short looking better.. the st target has 1.1459.. the st target would be harder to reach. the .25% was expected and it may be mostly priced in. in the future it may seem by most we are inline with more raises. i personally think those raises would be less frequent or spaced further if oil drops. i see a drop to 39.9x handle on brent as a target. lower oil would decrease chances of inflation. it would probably dampen the 3% growth many forecast. the pattern for oil 1.5 years back suggested a rise to a norm level reached almost a yr ago b4 return to a less than 20 handle.. it would be unbelievable to me also. i just post the analysis..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #152,593
  • Jun 14, 2017 10:32pm Jun 14, 2017 10:32pm
Just from a few hours ago

Oh By the way, Hi Gator.............

How're you doing?
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New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #152,594
  • Jun 14, 2017 10:44pm Jun 14, 2017 10:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
with the rate raise from fed. 1316 eu short looking better.. the st target has 1.1459.. the st target would be harder to reach. the .25% was expected and it may be mostly priced in. in the future it may seem by most we are inline with more raises. i personally think those raises would be less frequent or spaced further if oil drops. i see a drop to 39.9x handle on brent as a target. lower oil would decrease chances of inflation. it would probably dampen the 3% growth many forecast....
Come on, don't talk about inflation.
I have a remote friend who lives on SSDI of $818 per month, this year it was raised to $820.

Well, Netflix took care of that raising their rates $2 per month.

But what about the 6% rent increase?
And the 12% Utility increase?
And Medical? 20%?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #152,595
  • Jun 15, 2017 4:03am Jun 15, 2017 4:03am
Quoting landre
FoMc starting today. It's an important meeting with press conference and updating of the projection. The last nfp was a bit disappointing but the unemployment rate has reached a new low at 4.3 that fhe first objective of fed which have reached for several months (even if we can still discuss about the numbers and labor force declining...) This second objectif is the inflation at 2% like ecb mandate. This one is the one that could prevent fed from hiking three times this year. And all the trump reforms that could boost the growth seem to be unlikely...
So despite a weaker inflation we had a quite hawkish Fed. Confirming their dots and announcing a very soon start of balance sheet reduction. The final levels of cap are quite important 50bn a month but the initial levels are low.
Yellen was hawkish during the press conference arguing that the recent decline was sent just noise and inflation should start picking up as long as there is full employment.
We got the knee jerk reaction with inflation numbers but we still haven't broke the range. Markets dont really believe this hawkish tone.

So basically we could have another hike and start of qe before the end of 2017 thats fed expectations.

From my original post scenario 2 is in play even if markets think fed is too optimistic in their hikes path. Close below 1.116 to go further south.

landre
  • #152,596
  • Jun 15, 2017 4:06am Jun 15, 2017 4:06am
Quoting petehnm
{quote} I got one at 1.2815..good luck to you as well as all of us...let's make some money!!!
hey pete, beautiful entry
i hope you are still riding it

i missed it by 4 pips, so i could take the sell at the fibo level but no
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #152,597
  • Jun 15, 2017 4:19am Jun 15, 2017 4:19am
Agree with landre.
Once i saw dot plot roughly unchanged, i opened new shorts in anticipation of hawkish Yellen. Market was aligned for dovish fomc so RR good for loading.

Im not too sure balance sheet reduction impact, but i guess they already had the numbers way in advance (prob from may). Another qns was if it already started since there was no definitive criteria? Supposed to be 'hikes well under way' but i think they are already confident it will happen (confirm by Sep?). Numbers intended to be small so minimal tantrum effect i suppose...

Currently at 1.118 and skirmish is on. Bulls look like defending this on micro TF. Also looking at H4 close below 1.116 to confirm. Today Eurogroup meetings so maybe something negative for greece may help with bears hehe...

For trading i will unload at ST target 1.11 and 1.106 and MT target 1.08. Reload once 1.116 is resolved, or if any spike and rejection to 1.12x
  • #152,598
  • Jun 15, 2017 12:32pm Jun 15, 2017 12:32pm
few stops in a row, rough last 24 hours...
now lets see with this short
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  • #152,599
  • Jun 15, 2017 2:46pm Jun 15, 2017 2:46pm
god speed
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  • #152,600
  • Jun 15, 2017 2:59pm Jun 15, 2017 2:59pm
Quoting micho
god speed {image} {image}
corrected the stop

god speed
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