The Really Useless System

The motivation:
I would like to get my holly grail, which I will follow and trade in live account. I am hoping to become a full time trader from my money once. I would like to be homeless and stay in a car presented here and do a few caritative events. For me it is a big difference in helping people with a fish or teaching them to catch the fish, not everybody will like to learn, most of lazy people will prefer the fish only.

I have calculated with 1000 base currency account, every month +15% gain it is over 1 million at the 50th month. At August, I don't want to trade, same around New Year, so 10 month / year, theoretically can be done in 5 years. 15% / month should be realistic, but I have traded on lower timeframes the most of the time. I know it will be drawdowns and when I lose and when I can't trade, and need money and I will withdrawn, but this is my target: around 10-20 %, what market gives: no forced trade, no bank loans, periodically add founds, if is possible while I have daily job.

The Reality:
In history there was/are a few traders who made hundred of millions from nothing. Jesse Livermore , George Soros and many others. Like not everyone become F1 world champion who has driving license, I do believe after a few years of research and experiments can I become finally full trader and get out from Rat race (working from 9 to 5 to pay the next month bills)

This is one man business, it is perfect who has problem with communication, people and disabilities of moving and who do prefer to stay at calculator and "do nothing" with a bit irony. I think all old software engineers ( over 10 years of experience) are ideal candidates to become forex traders. And learning this and doing over 10-15 even 30 years, should be better than expecting the pension from state or private. Those who are managing your private pension what they do with your money? -investments?

It is a business, it is not a job. It does require to invest money to live from it and sometimes can you loose even with holy grail in hand, because it's a business. In every kind of business: if you take higher risk, than higher can be the reward, lower risk, lower possible rewards there are better periods and there are worse, although even on worse period need to pay my bills.

I have seen 2 system, which I like it, needs improvements here and here, but can be the base of something. Today I saw what I wanted to make: Jesse Livermore's sytem for forex here, but it trades the early stage of Jesse's trading style ( scalper) and I would like to get out from scalping / intraday.

Time frame:
Jesse said something about nobody can guess each movement of the price, but on big waves are the money, -can't find where exactly it is-

Enter:
Also in his opinion should be start to enter in full position once the trend confirmed (the previous trade has shown profit).

Exit:
It should stay until the trend gives sign of over, again need to search where is says.

It is nothing about the 2 type of indicators: trend follower and oscillators.

Something about the first and the 7th wave /candle? are the most expensive, maybe that Robert Kiyosaki told, for me it doesn't matter anymore who.

Probably can be found a dozen of indicators and which explains the following thing, maybe a lot of systems are written based on those indicators and George Soros has that similar theory, but used other words, but mine it is:
The currency pair is like generating energy over time. If it isn't consumed ( no movement ) than it will explode ( breakout ), if had a to big movement than it must be pushed hard by an event ( external energy source ) or just it was an artificial movement and it will bounce back. A good trend forming description I have found here. I would like to enter in full position trade after D, near E, when the price is above C ( backtested and reached) out after K point if head and shoulders patters met, if double top, than after second top, when is starting to fall. Sometimes it is visible when the trend has no more energy, than it will accumulate (small ranging movements) and explode in either way.

Money management:
He used something very high risk, probably that is why he was bankrupt several times. I am not ready to follow his example here, because I have / had to much losing trades(and I have "corrected my positions", what a fault...).
His rules can be found here.

The Broker:
Dukascopy doesn't meet my needs here, because: has overnight policy + at weekends the max leverage it is changing to max 1:30, and just to many fee has.
Probably I need to go back to Oanda and use they horrible softwares, unless a good broker is suggested, which has reasonable mobile and desktop softwares.

If somebody can suggest for me a reasonable broker ( min 3 years old, but I do prefer over 5 years, no fake spikes, fees everywhere, huge spreads, and so on...) with free API I would create open-source mobile software to that broker! Android hdpi, xhdpi screens, and iPhone4+ platforms I would target. My netbook has 1000x600 resolution and no dedicated GPU (considerated as desktop platform by broker), I can't understand why the hell can't be used the same software features on 960x640 device with GPU(considerated as mobile platform by broker)! I think it is not the trader job to fix the broker platform and make it usable, but once I wanted to improve it Dukas platform and I have references for mobile development too, so able to do it. Oanda's Android platform (v 2.0.1) doesn't let me to change the TP, SL levels, they are sick!

I have found a lot of gurus here, most of they following the "how to be guru in 10 steps" described here.

The 10v isn't fair, but I would like to get rid of those comments, from who has no visible proof of grooving balance or experience.

It is just another useless system, thread, not needed everybody here.

Now the daily chart it looks nicely trending.


Monday low volume expected, some bigger traders are entring Money-Tuesday and exit Friday, "German Ifo Business Climate" news release maybe will give a push from EU players and NY will follow that, safer for enter is the Tuesday "ECB President Draghi Speaks" event . Keep in mind those, who moves the price how they live and feel, described here

I will try to enter in this days ( to late I woke up, but better now, than never) and catch some daily candles, and this time stick with my position until I don't see it is the trend weakening / over.

Until the price wont reach the HH (1.3200) I will not add new size to my position, I will not "correct" the position, I will prefer to be out by SL.

Today went a bit down the price.

As you can see todays candle isn't so powerfully as Thursdays one this can be sign of weakening, but I think it is because of Monday and half volume is traded only. Tomorrow will be an event:
ECB President Draghi Speaks . If I am not busy and if will go down the price I will go with they, around 1.2750 should we have some bull candles. If the price will go up, than I will stay out and whatch what power has and probably enter in the next day only.

I think my monthly target is pushing to make trades. Somewhere it is good, because if I am not trading for sure I will not learn and for sure I will not earn, but I will not lose. Staying away and not risking anything for those possible 200 pips, or maybe a new trend it isn't sounds wise. I will try with arould 50 -70 pip SL and 0.5-1%(max) risk.

My demo_mt4 trade explorer has 25 trades, which were traded to try something else. I came back to demo and traded those 25 trades to test the position "correction". It looks like profitable on short term, on longer term it isn't. I have found why too, but that is another story and can be found in this forum. For one thing it is good that technique: to show in short term you are profitable. In long term it will be a huge drawn down, just need to collect more successive "corrections" and once you margin will call you.

I wanted to search where exactly it is the explanation, and I got an interesting search result. From a smart, old man I know: first look who is telling, than what is telling. Keep in mind this, when read those trade myths, too.

I couldn't resist to not "correct" my -30 pip position I have added another short when I saw the price went up but has no enough steam yet. I had right or luck? and the price went down with around 35 pip.

As I can see has no force to push up, and not yet enough to push down, I wanted to reduce the risk as much as I could. For that reason I wanted to close 1 position. It was Oanda's choice which one (FIFO) -need to change the broker- On the other opened trade I have marked as "safe" 15 pip from 35.

Later:
the price touched the 1.2900 round number and here are several touch and couldn't bypass the 1.286, I saw no major force to push and I wanted to bank my gains, so I have closed the second trade too. I do believe in 12h it can bounce back like 50 PIP and afraid to hit my SL. Better stay a way a bit until it will decide where will go the price. 50 PIP in my pocket is better than 5 PIP(if stopped out).

It is a Lower low or almost? I will place a Sell Order around 40-50 PIP from here, in case of Asia session will push up.

I saw it is moving the AUD/USD. I did a scalp with 2 lots, around 1:17 leverage, I was hoping in 4-8 pips got 4.6 pip, 0.7% return, which is €71.33 I wish it was real money

26 min, 24.5 pip, 190 euro. 1 lot size 10k account

I was in a hotel with my Android phone, Internet over 3G. I couldn't see and wait, analyze how is going, how many pip more is expected to move, so I have closed early with safe pips.

Monday:
Around London open I saw the EUR/USD went down a lot, like 60-100 pips?
I tough this is a speculation movement only, no major natural catastrophe or political change, so I bet against the today movements: all short. So far so good, scalping in lower timeframe in direction of higher timeframe...

In this day I am expecting to have a bigger move in a direction, not just ranging. It was 2x Bull candle, so I took the buy positions:

Even with 3 position it is 4% leverage. I have set the TP far away enough and no SL. It sounds risky the no SL, but I will take a look today at this trades.
Hopefully I can manage positions if I see a 100 pip movement against me.

100 pip movement against me it is 1% lose(per trade), almost I have this from 2x trades

Minimum trade size it is 1k, I should have 2k-5k in account to trade safe in this style.

Edit:
I have closed the 3rd short with +15 PIP , and at evening I have opened other 2 positions, because I was bored with ranging market and doesn't want to move. Isn't wise...

Somebody is trading with 10 monitors I am trading from mobile most of the time

The NZD position it was closed with a little profit.
I was "sure" about EU movement for 10-20 pip direction, so I took 11 thousands (instead of 1 thousand) and I "won". I knew the GU has a correlation with EU and when I saw EU is moving up, I have closed the GU with 10-30 pip lose and opened a 11 thousand position for 10-20 pip again, won again.


If I took the daily chart and I look for 50 candles, maybe a weekly chart for 10 candles, than is too easy to "guess" the direction. It is boring and it is profitable. I can't predict all in lower timeframes, but it seems I can correct my mistakes.

1002->1043 = +4.091% It is a bit high for safe trades, probably it will be once a draw down.

The 1 thousand size it was expected to survive more than 1 day: 100-150 pip, the 11 thousands for max 2h and it had a SL as I remember, but I saw it is going fast in a good direction...Daily are like 3-4 moves of those.

Today I heard a lesson: the job wich you take shouldn't be for money, but for long term learning(Robert Kiyosaki).

19+19.2 -35.2 -15.4 = -12.4 PIP.
1043 -> 1053 is only +0.9587%

I am hoping till Monday / Tuesday will go bellow 1.300, used leverage is 12%. Only that is a source of a minor adrenaline, it shouldn't be bigger than 5%.

Today I have asked Oanda: if somebody choose Oanda Europe than it is escaped from FIFO. And with the second sub-account it is possible to full hedge the first account, well Margin call shouldn't be hit!
In that case probably I would choose they, because of lower fee, and better report possibility ( FF's Trade explorer), if Dukas EU would allow FF's Trade Explorer I would chose they for hedge possibility even for the plus fees ( fill up 2.3% ) trade commission ( 1.2 PIP ) Overnight commission, weekend lower max leverage and so on. Neither of this 2 company has a usable report containing how much pip gave me a trade and ho much % was added/subtracted to account, can't understand why doesn't provide this basic info...because the software project manager aren't using his product?!

Maybe because lack of the system, but I am still trading on emotions.
The week-end gap wasn't so hight as I have expected, so I have closed the profitable big size trades:


Now the price is going in my position direction, but I feel in safe.
In next days I think I will look for long positions and I don't want to have the shorts. Closed the other 1 thousands too with small profit. Equity: 1063, used leverage 1%.

The TP was hit, before London Open (Equity: 1067)and the price bounded from there. There is a lot of Banking holiday, probably I will not trade today.

I think this is a working system, at least for now. So it should work on others too. Not every currency pair is good for everything, lets do a try.

I have watched the daily charts, last 20-50 candles ( is that a monthly? ) and I have decided to enter on a trend, counter-trend depending what it is.

In almost 20h It is moved all 3 against me a little. I have used very low leverage. Hoping in next day for better result. If is going that too against me I will watch the charts again, re-read news and analyze: if a trade need to be closed than I hope I can cover the loss in the smaller timeframe leveraged a bit.

Oh, tomorrow AUD and USD important news and G7 meetings. So it will be an opportunity or before or after news release to get out from trades with very high probability.

From sept 24, when I had a reset to 10k to today, when I have closed / put on sleep this account oct 11 it isn't a whole month. 10,909.81 is the ending balance, so I did 9% in less than a month. 48-26 = in 22 trades. One trade was a mistake: I wanted to trade with 50k units and traded with 500k (full leverage: 50:1 almost). And that trade has positive return. Otherwise it meets my expectations: monthly 10-20% what the Market gives.

It has a draw down, but is "corrected" and is positive. Isn't perfect, but I don't have any crystal globe or holy grail.

This period is a relative small, but only 2 reason is why to trade on demo:
- detect what went wrong in live account
- when you found than adjust your "system" and prove for yourself and your investors: now you have corrected the previous mistakes, so you can go back to live.

I have hesitated to which broker go back with live. None of them match my needs 100% unfortunately: In working hours I would like to trade from mobile, and out of them from desktop. At weekends I would like to analyze my trades and thing about where should I improve, where was a mistake. Also I would like to show for (possible)investors how is going the equity curve. Most of brokers has something to show at reports page, but isn't enough detailed. Mostly is like a collection of trade logs with a time filter and do what you want with that. ForexFactory's trade explorer is a very nice tool, meet my needs at report. The reason why I didn't go live with Dukascopy EU is because I can't attach to trade explorer and need to stick with they reports! Now I am giving my spread money -at least- for Oanda, and hoping once they will improve they mobile platforms A LOT as well the trade platform. Oh, I am using macosx, so any only windows based platforms excluded and don't need MT4. Oanda Europe has no FIFO but still can't hedge the position as at Dukas. I can do the inverse of the trade on the other subaccount, but won't protect from Margin Call.

It isn't the greatest idea, but it is possible to use TeamViewer and connect to my desktop in case of I really need the desktop version on the mobile, but need to be started the PC. It is a backup method available on some conditions, maybe better, than nothing...

As I have calculated at 50:1 leverage account has the invisible Stop Lose ( margin call) at 200 PIP at Eur/Usd that I will use, hopefully will be not hinted often and I can keep balance positive.

Started with to few size to get the taste, than I went in wrong direction. Kept the loosing positions until I saw it is enough. When I saw it is a new opportunity to recover my loses I have used the margins. I have analyzed the daily and the 4h directions, based on what others saying. I took my over-leveraged positions and I have recovered.

I saw some traders use "bouncing theory": when the trend reached a new level there should be a pullback, everybody knows that, some of they has more experience and they can predict better where is that zone.

Yesterday and today I was in a mode to take much risk, so I won +5% of my account, each day. If I use trade size like that, probably I will have a bigger draw down. Hedge founds earn 40-60% / year, and probably they are playing other kind of game than me, but I still believe a dedicated, "employed" day trader should make 10-20% monthly average. 5% / month it is 71% / year ( 12month)

Today I have seen good news for USD, I have used all my margin, and it went to my predicted direction. I have closed to soon, now I see I could make even +12% even more, but I was over leveraged and scared to not return my profit into lose. Finally the 5.8% is good for almost a week, not for a day acording to my expectations

Tomorrow is Friday, which is a special day in trading EUR/USD, need to be more carefully in US session, before London close, because the last 3-4 horse they are playing strange, unknown games.

I have choosed Oanda as broker to have the ForexFactory's trade report, because Oanda's and Ducascopy's report worth nothing.

Unfortunatelly this software has bugs, exactly there where I needed and for reason to choosed: performance calculations ( those percentages )

First: at my demo account, if I add new deposit, than it will decrease this percentage numbers, because is taking the EndBalance and the ProfitMadeOnTrade. For eg if my account was 1000 usd, and if I made a trade of 100% return: 1000 usd, in my balance is 2000, the Explorer shows 100% corectly. When do a deposit of + 8000 to have 10000 in my account, than it will be lower that number: 1000 made and now has 10000, than the return it will be around 11%, which hurts my "performance"

On live account: it wasn't any deposit.

At overview it shows: 22.7% for Today and 12.6% for this week.
[ATTACH]overview[/ATTACH].

Well, I didn't opened today, just closed a few Martingaled trades.
However , tere is my last trades. I don't know how can you calculate 22.7% for
-0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +1.5 +3.1 -1.5 -0.9 -0.2 + 7.3 percents!!!

It should be around 9.5% (+/- 2%), from where the 22.7%?!!!

After 1 month here is my result in yearly Leaderboard:



I would like to thanks for Bemac, Chicky and gatorinla for those few PM and all forum posts.

IMHO this post is extremely usefully and worth at least a few million of $ , not only a Vouch from you - right now I don't have any, it wasn't so important for me.

Nov 16, Friday.

Previous day was a push up at EU to 1.28, than pull back to 1.278-1.277. It is normal.
I was thinking it will go up again, so I made a entry order at 1.276. In NY session is was hitten.

At 11:00, 12:00 ( GMT+2 ) it is visible Euro has good news. It is expected to raise the price.

I saw the price instead of going up it is falling a few pip, like 10 or 20, than I posed:
"
Long @Market
SL 1.27
TP 1.278
"
The price was around 1.275

Then came the US news, it was bad for USD, so I would add more to my position, if I could, but I have used all my margins., and I did a post:

"
Quote:
Originally Posted by matheszabi
Long @Market
SL 1.27
TP 1.278
Even Stronger Long!!!
"
- thee price was around 1.273

- well the SL it would be hitten, but I didn't used SL.
I know it is Friday, things can go inverse and even if is going all against me, it will not go more than 100 pip and I will not lose my account.
I made some calculations based on win:lose trade ration , when R:R is 1:1 and it was a surprise for me: I should use more leverage, than the 2%.
I couldn't watch how much I am loosing and I went away: no margin left, I was sure it will be no margin call, so I went away from trading platform.
When I can back I saw the SL it would be hitten and is already in retracement.

Unfortunately I hadn't possibility to be at BE. 35% loss is to much for me, even mathematically is proven it is optimal in long term, or even should be greater!

I am letting positions to run against me and seeking to get at BE or small profit and I am not letting the win trades to run because of fear to not turn in loses. The same, old problem. I didn't solved yet, it seems In this way I have wiped a few accounts and I had no motivation to build up.

Using SL there is a problem where to place it. Better I would "correct" the position, if I have free margin.
Even better if I choose only the safer trades, but this one it was safe and went against me! It is always the probability...

Some are saying it will be 1.2650 some with 1.2850, but I should believe in myself and in my trading "system", which exactly now fails. "Keep walking"...

The route to 1 million $ isn't so clear and shiny!