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  • #2,741
  • Mar 22, 2017 9:53am Mar 22, 2017 9:53am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} The Buttons indicator. Check the attachments.
thanks a lot. what about the dollar yen situation? is this valid as a 123
  • #2,742
  • Mar 22, 2017 9:55am Mar 22, 2017 9:55am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} how does this setup matchup when it comes to rule #2 it didn't get near the low at all?
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #2,743
  • Mar 22, 2017 10:00am Mar 22, 2017 10:00am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} {image} {image}
i think I'm still having confusion with the 123, is it two candles or three candles in the pattern? dollar yen wound up being a holo tho! couldn't take it as that's not the rules fo the challenge. had to stick with GBP/USD being a crock of sh*$ all day lol
  • #2,744
  • Mar 22, 2017 11:56am Mar 22, 2017 11:56am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} how does this setup matchup when it comes to rule #2 it didn't get near the low at all?
''Test'' is a loose concept, lol. It doesn't have to actually get right up there, it simply has to fail to become a new extreme itself.
  • #2,745
  • Mar 22, 2017 11:59am Mar 22, 2017 11:59am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} i think I'm still having confusion with the 123, is it two candles or three candles in the pattern? dollar yen wound up being a holo tho! couldn't take it as that's not the rules fo the challenge. had to stick with GBP/USD being a crock of sh*$ all day lol
Don't think of it as a pattern - there is another method called 1-2-3 which uses an actual pattern and that is a different beast all together.

Instead, think of it as three ''steps'':
1: New High / Low is made...
2: Next bar fails to make a new High / Low...
3: Enter as price crosses the Open of second bar.
  • #2,746
  • Mar 22, 2017 12:50pm Mar 22, 2017 12:50pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Don't think of it as a pattern - there is another method called 1-2-3 which uses an actual pattern and that is a different beast all together. Instead, think of it as three ''steps'': 1: New High / Low is made... 2: Next bar fails to make a new High / Low... 3: Enter as price crosses the Open of second bar.
Thank you, but would you at least want some movement in the opposite direction for price to come back through the open? So in a buy setup would u need to to just see it trade downwards to back up through it?
  • #2,747
  • Mar 22, 2017 4:02pm Mar 22, 2017 4:02pm
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} Thank you, but would you at least want some movement in the opposite direction for price to come back through the open? So in a buy setup would u need to to just see it trade downwards to back up through it?
It's a judgement call. There have been a couple of occasions where some of us (myself, Pippy and Hal) looked at possibly having one particular ''shape'' of bar as better than another but the statistical edge just wasn't there. The ones you'd think would be ''better'' would be blowouts and the sketchy-looking ones would go on to be big winners.

No doubt there is a chance that taking a bar where the entry comes really quickly could prove a bust but again, there has been no real downside shown statistically. If you would be willing to do the legwork, by all means do and let us all know your findings but in all honesty, I feel you would be better off just taking them as you find them.
  • #2,748
  • Mar 22, 2017 4:09pm Mar 22, 2017 4:09pm
Anybody get the nice EJ from a few hours ago? Triggered 19:00 uk. Would have been a nice way to wind up the day.
  • #2,749
  • Mar 23, 2017 12:24am Mar 23, 2017 12:24am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} It's a judgement call. There have been a couple of occasions where some of us (myself, Pippy and Hal) looked at possibly having one particular ''shape'' of bar as better than another but the statistical edge just wasn't there. The ones you'd think would be ''better'' would be blowouts and the sketchy-looking ones would go on to be big winners. No doubt there is a chance that taking a bar where the entry comes really quickly could prove a bust but again, there has been no real downside shown statistically. If you would be willing to do the...
thanks for your response, I understand a lot of this is a judgement call and not rigid I just wanted to clarify if you need some degree of movement above/below the open before we come back through it because if you didn't wouldn't that essentially be just pulling the trigger at the open of the next bar? what I'm going to be journaling during my 10 trade challenge and beyond is what some call MAE (maximum adverse excursion) I'm sure your probably aware of this concept but for those that don't it could prove to be helpful. I'm going to keep track of how much heat I took on all of my winning trades and see if theres a pattern in the results. then for example I find out through my journal that all my winners only took up to 5 pips heat, one can make the decision to purposely bring down his win rate to strongly improve risk reward and expectancy or simply just use it to know when something isn't looking right. if I get any interesting results I will definitely share
  • #2,750
  • Mar 23, 2017 12:49am Mar 23, 2017 12:49am
A good start to the day:

GBP/USD
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EUR/GBP (I bent the rules very slightly on this one....yes it made a new low but rebounded off that very quickly giving a double bottom)
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EUR/USD
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  • #2,751
  • Mar 23, 2017 1:23am Mar 23, 2017 1:23am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} thanks for your response, I understand a lot of this is a judgement call and not rigid I just wanted to clarify if you need some degree of movement above/below the open before we come back through it because if you didn't wouldn't that essentially be just pulling the trigger at the open of the next bar? what I'm going to be journaling during my 10 trade challenge and beyond is what some call MAE (maximum adverse excursion) I'm sure your probably aware of this concept but for those that don't it could prove to be helpful. I'm going to keep...
Yes, you're absolutely correct. In a real-world situation we all wait to see a bit of movement away or, as you say, we'd just be blindly pulling the trigger on the open. As a measurable distance though, no, there is no set distance.

I would be extremely interested in your MAE study and I think it would complement beautifully Hal's data. Please keep us in the loop, thanks.

One thing that I had considered previously and should be a part of your process I would suggest, is the shape of the set-up bar (the bar that actually makes the new extreme) as I had considered it likely that a bar where there was a low open followed by a long push to the extreme before price dropped back to close at a low level near, equal to or even below the open.

I called these ''long-bladed-knives'' and my thinking was that following basic price-action principles would have pointed us to expect that that shape would have been more likely to herald a reverse.

This would be contrasted to a bar where the open and / or close were up near the ''sharp'' end and giving a ''short-bladed-knife''. I had anticipated that that kind of price-action would lead to a situation where price had not been exhausted and was more likely to continue on.

However we did not find that to be the case, with neither look seeming to have any kind of edge over the other. This could of course have been due to the fact that the sample size was too small and random, consisting as they did of those trades we actually took, not involving any kind of back-checking. Whatever the reason, the idea was stuck in the back of the cupboard, at least for now. Feel free to go and dig it out and dust it off.
  • #2,752
  • Mar 23, 2017 1:24am Mar 23, 2017 1:24am
Quoting Pent56
A good start to the day: GBP/USD {image} EUR/GBP (I bent the rules very slightly on this one....yes it made a new low but rebounded off that very quickly giving a double bottom) {image} EUR/USD {image}
Nice job. Don't fret too much about the second one - I take them all the time .
  • #2,753
  • Mar 23, 2017 1:33am Mar 23, 2017 1:33am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} It's a judgement call. There have been a couple of occasions where some of us (myself, Pippy and Hal) looked at possibly having one particular ''shape'' of bar as better than another but the statistical edge just wasn't there. The ones you'd think would be ''better'' would be blowouts and the sketchy-looking ones would go on to be big winners. No doubt there is a chance that taking a bar where the entry comes really quickly could prove a bust but again, there has been...
As usual lemercenaire nails it. In my experience most setups meet the criteria. They will go at least a fraction of a pip in the direction of the hi or lo. The question becomes in my mind will it go at least 5 pips in the direction I want it to. There are not many instances that don't move at least that fraction of a pip. I had always reckoned that if it moves a number of pips to the hi or lo then reversed it was a better trade entry. Not conclusive on that though. Many trades would be missed with that approach and no guarantees it seems. Trading is trading, there is an element of judgement, and even an element of luck at times (some might say most times) But there are also statistical advantages or edges that can be exploited if you zero in on them and repeat over and over again. That seems to be the crux behind why it works. In the mean I continue to search for the tell.
  • #2,754
  • Mar 23, 2017 2:09am Mar 23, 2017 2:09am
I should quit before I get myself in trouble. But let's take last hour as an example from the above dissertation.
The following pairs that I tracked that more or less qualified got the following pips:

AU +1, EJ 0, GJ +17, JY +1, CF +4.8, EG 0.

There was directional movement on many pairs. A week ago Friday that first hour London yielded +152 pips on 6 pairs in one hour.

Incidentally I would have preferred the GJ from that group in hindsight. I took the CF and got stopped out falling .2 short of my minimum. But I may very likely get it back this hour.
  • #2,755
  • Mar 23, 2017 2:11am Mar 23, 2017 2:11am
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And I did get it back this hour. EJ +5 profit locked.
  • #2,756
  • Mar 23, 2017 3:11am Mar 23, 2017 3:11am
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Ignoring all common sense I took this GU long after it broke .3 pips toward the low and faced a 32 pips stop loss, heading into a round number 2500. So I locked my profit and am +13, 5 minutes into the hour. I'm on a roll.

I guess it is because I am currently reading the book, "Everything is Obvious Once You Know the Answer, How Common Sense Fails Us." by Duncan J. Watts
  • #2,757
  • Mar 23, 2017 3:18am Mar 23, 2017 3:18am
USD/CAD A quick 'Hal 5 pip special' Letting the rest of the position run with my stop into BE+1 territory.
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  • #2,758
  • Mar 23, 2017 3:35am Mar 23, 2017 3:35am
Good trade Pent56. My let it ride trading strategy is not exactly original but I toy with it as time goes on. Recently I have been doing that taking about 80% off at +5. But 80% may not be the magical number, you have to experiment.

Lately I have been setting that stop at BE then. Often get stopped but that's OK. Sometimes it moves and I will switch over to a +10 or maybe +20 trailer if it is really moving. I find moving stops up gets you stopped more times then not. Because trades are constantly oscillating. Usually. In the past I never moved my stop from the original after I took my partial profit at +5. And at times I hit some eye popping runs with that because I happened to catch the top or bottom of the day. Pure chance. That approach will also take its share of losses but with partial profit locked. I think one day probably the GJ exploded for a sustained move and it went 200+ but I would call that a blue moon trade.
  • #2,759
  • Mar 23, 2017 4:05am Mar 23, 2017 4:05am
6 of the 10 pairs I track qualified and showed a potential profit of +115 last hour.
  • #2,760
  • Mar 23, 2017 5:05am Mar 23, 2017 5:05am
Big red news coming, folks. Watch yourselves out there.
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