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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #449,901
  • Feb 18, 2017 8:26am Feb 18, 2017 8:26am
Quoting Bones
it doesn't meet the basic criteria ,maybe bearish just read the link he gave tell me it meets the criteria or provide the link that makes it that ,forever seeing this pattern side by side one after another something's wrong {quote}
it meets all the criteria , just ask Mr Breakout - that's a perfect multiple downward sloping H&S

as i said, i am a not a big fan of such patterns , but the H&S is there - the real skill in this type of analysis is to spot the pattern BEFORE it completes , otherwise it's useless

however Bones to me it's fair enough, you don't see a H&S there , that's fine , we're not gonna start a chat about that lol

peace my friend
  • #449,902
  • Feb 18, 2017 9:16am Feb 18, 2017 9:16am
There is no H&S pattern in GU stop smoking crack and making things too complicated. GU daily is a bull flag setup the low will be made near 2260-80 before this will push for new highs near 2900. All the Brexit bollocks already priced in the market and we have a strong DB @ 2000.
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  • #449,903
  • Feb 18, 2017 9:25am Feb 18, 2017 9:25am
The real one and only H&S slider is in EURGBP daily we make a new push higher but will make a lower high, to allow GU to complete bull flag pattern EG will hit 8700-8760 before final huuuge dump well below 0.85 and GU will race to new ATH for 2017 near 2900-3000 area. Study harder fellas. )))
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  • #449,904
  • Feb 18, 2017 9:50am Feb 18, 2017 9:50am
Quoting Bones
what's to review Break ? you quoted the inverse so down is changed to up , shoulders should mirror {quote} {image} {image}
The term "complex chart pattern" can apply to ANY chart pattern, not just head and shoulders (top or bottom it does not matter).

It was first used in 1948 by Edwards and Magee in their book Technical Analysis of Stocks Trends, still considered the Bible of technical analysis.
  • #449,905
  • Feb 18, 2017 11:03am Feb 18, 2017 11:03am
Quoting asgcorp
The real one and only H&S slider is in EURGBP daily
Yes we talked about the Head and Shoulders on the EUR/GBP a few days ago.

Here is another H&S on the GBP/AUD (4h). It seems that the price has tested the neckline (blue line) and is now about to go down.

Also, notice how complex this H&S is (here we have a H&S inside another bigger H&S, and this smaller H&S confirms the first one).

Complex chart patterns sometimes produce explosive moves.
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  • #449,906
  • Feb 18, 2017 11:17am Feb 18, 2017 11:17am
Quoting PayTheLimit
....I'm buying the hell out of it at 1.2219...its just something I have to do.. that level is mean, its sneaky, and its damn sexy...
And how many pips do you want to extract from that transaction, assuming this 1.2219 level is indeed going to act as a support line?
  • #449,907
  • Feb 18, 2017 11:36am Feb 18, 2017 11:36am
Quoting asgcorp
There is no H&S pattern in GU stop smoking crack and making things too complicated. GU daily is a bull flag setup
A bull flag setup on the cable (daily chart), really??

Here is the exact 1h equivalent of your daily chart (see below).

Do you really call this a flag or are you just drawing lines to fit your bullish point of view?
Come on.
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  • #449,908
  • Feb 18, 2017 11:59am Feb 18, 2017 11:59am
doesn't matter what you call it my friend we ain't in the chart pattern book writing business in here. The name of the game in GU is buying low near 2260-80 region cause this thing's gonna pop hard and hit 2900 very soon!
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  • #449,909
  • Feb 18, 2017 12:11pm Feb 18, 2017 12:11pm
ultimately GU is going much higher, won't happen overnight, but I got a valid target on weekly well above 3000 area.
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  • #449,910
  • Feb 18, 2017 12:12pm Feb 18, 2017 12:12pm
Quoting asgcorp
doesn't matter what you call it my friend we ain't in the chart pattern book writing business in here. The name of the game in GU is buying low near 2260-80 region cause this thing's gonna pop hard and hit 2900 very soon! {image}
Sure, anything is possible.

But consider this : On the same cable daily chart you posted, we ALSO have:

1: A breakout to the downside from the uptrend line.
2: Price has tested the breakout point twice (red line).
3: Price has been rejected at the breakout point.
4: We have a top Head and Shoulders formation and a close below the neckline.

As you can see, we have serious reasons to believe that the cable is going down soon.

I never let my opinions cloud my judgment, I examine the facts and the facts only.
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  • #449,911
  • Feb 18, 2017 12:18pm Feb 18, 2017 12:18pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} I never let my opinions cloud my judgment, I examine the facts and the facts only. {image}
We should never let our opinions cloud our judgment, We should examine the facts and the facts only.

The above are wise words for those ears wise enough to listen, appreciate and above all UNDERSTAND
  • #449,912
  • Feb 18, 2017 12:21pm Feb 18, 2017 12:21pm
1: A breakout to the downside from the uptrend line. Not really, cause it's median line of the new upwards sloping pitchfork on daily see above.
2: Price is now near the breakout point (red line). No.
3: Price has been rejected at the breakout point. No.
4: We have a top Head and Shoulders formation and a close below the neckline. There is no H&S in GBPUSD.

I like your approach to examine the cold facts, so let's do just that. )))

EURGBP we got H&S on daily. EURGBP is inversely correlated to GBPUSD, see below for details that's weekly correlation.

So we got EG in bear mode soon, which implies that GBPUSD will rally higher.

Feel free to add to the above. )))
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  • #449,913
  • Edited 1:00pm Feb 18, 2017 12:48pm | Edited 1:00pm
Quoting MXT
{quote} We should never let our opinions cloud our judgment, We should examine the facts and the facts only. The above are wise words for those ears wise enough to listen, appreciate and above all UNDERSTAND
Absolutely, we should never trade our opinions.

However, even if I am currently bearish on the cable, I must also stay alert and consider other possible scenarios.

For example if I see that kind of price action on the cable then game over for the bears, we now have a new reality (see chart below).

The problem is that traders do not like to adjust to reality, they just want to be right and teach the market a lesson, even if the price action is clearly contradicting their point of view.

That's usually how a 25 pip stop becomes a 250 pip loss ("don't worry, the market will come back..."), for instance.
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  • #449,914
  • Feb 18, 2017 12:56pm Feb 18, 2017 12:56pm
Quoting asgcorp
EURGBP we got H&S on daily. EURGBP is inversely correlated to GBPUSD, see below for details that's weekly correlation. So we got EG in bear mode soon, which implies that GBPUSD will rally higher. Feel free to add to the above. ))) {image}
I have already made a comment about that too, here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post9557442

Also, keep in mind that the H&S on the EUR/GBP could FAIL.

A Head and Shoulders formation - or any chart pattern for that matter- is under no obligation (legal or otherwise) to do what it is supposed to do.
  • #449,915
  • Feb 18, 2017 1:06pm Feb 18, 2017 1:06pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Absolutely, we should never trade our opinions. However, even if I am currently bearish on the cable, I must also stay alert and consider other possible scenarios. For example if I see that kind of price action on the cable then game over for the bears, we now have a new reality (see chart below). The problem is that traders do not like to adjust to reality, they just want to be right and teach the market a lesson, even if the price action is clearly contradicting their point of view. That's usually how a 25 pip stop becomes a 250 pip loss...
my friend , that's exactly right - i always appreciate your comments
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} . A Head and Shoulders formation - or any chart pattern for that matter- is under no obligation (legal or otherwise) to do what it is supposed to do.
Ditto
  • #449,916
  • Feb 18, 2017 1:31pm Feb 18, 2017 1:31pm
Quoting asgcorp
1: A breakout to the downside from the uptrend line. Not really, cause it's median line of the new upwards sloping pitchfork on daily see above. 2: Price is now near the breakout point (red line). No. 3: Price has been rejected at the breakout point. No. 4: We have a top Head and Shoulders formation and a close below the neckline. There is no H&S in GBPUSD.
Do you see two cute puppies on this image?

Yes?

See, at least we agree on something.
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  • #449,917
  • Feb 18, 2017 1:37pm Feb 18, 2017 1:37pm
nice to see you my wolf wave friend ,it's exactly my thoughts lets see what next

Quoting asgcorp
The real one and only H&S slider is in EURGBP daily we make a new push higher but will make a lower high, to allow GU to complete bull flag pattern EG will hit 8700-8760 before final huuuge dump well below 0.85 and GU will race to new ATH for 2017 near 2900-3000 area. Study harder fellas. ))) {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #449,918
  • Edited 1:59pm Feb 18, 2017 1:48pm | Edited 1:59pm
By the way Bones, what happened to that cable uptrend line you talked about almost everyday, this one, is it still valid?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post9556644

As a reminder and according to the way you drew that trendline, here is what we see now...
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  • #449,919
  • Feb 18, 2017 2:01pm Feb 18, 2017 2:01pm
Hi Break
it was guess 2 point theres a line I just dont know where it is which I said
gbp jpy still over its line ,gbp aud is at support zone
aud usd is at high res
gbp aud now has w1 =2 doji maybe big round number
This week data never met expectations but wasn't that bad still
im looking at gbp aud Q and thinking this could still work out its a much longer point of view

Quoting Mr Breakout
By the way Bones, what happened to that cable uptrend line you talked about almost everyday, this one, is it still valid? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post9556644
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #449,920
  • Feb 18, 2017 2:08pm Feb 18, 2017 2:08pm
Quoting Bones
it was guess 2 point theres a line I just dont know where it is
Here is that same "up" trendline on the NetDania website.
Seems like that uptrend is not that convincing now.

See how easy it is to take 2 points on a chart and call them a trendline?
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