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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #448,221
  • Jan 28, 2017 3:26pm Jan 28, 2017 3:26pm
My deductions cup and handle
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  • #448,222
  • Edited 4:09pm Jan 28, 2017 3:28pm | Edited 4:09pm
Quoting Bones
you wont see 1.2 in the next 2 weeks ill come back to this post then or you can look at the other feed 2-week chart i posted first to see why im confident http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post9492669 {image}
Sorry to disappoint you but your down trendline is not really a trendline, there is too much space. You cannot just draw a line between 2 points and call it a trendline.

Here is the daily equivalent of your "trendline" on your weekly chart (see chart below, the blue line):

As you can see there is way too much space!

Now look at the purple and red lines, these are real (resistance) trendlines and they will stop the cable on its way up. Cable is bearish, this is clearly a seller's market, the GBP/USD could go to $1 who knows, so you guys should stop thinking about buying GBP/USD, any up move will be short-lived.
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  • #448,223
  • Jan 28, 2017 3:33pm Jan 28, 2017 3:33pm
I know with the highest confidence now we wait and see
anythings possible
it would have to be completely unknown event imo

If you don't know what something means look to the past ,I gave you the other feed chart where not 1 such candle failed outright

Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Sorry to disappoint you but your down trendline is not really a trendline, there is too much space. You cannot just draw a line between 2 points and call it a trendline. Here is the daily equivalent of your weekly chart (see chart below): As you can see there is way too much space! Now look at the purple and red lines, these are real trendlines and they will stop the cable on its way up. Cable is bearish, this is clearly a seller market, the GBP/USD could go to $1 who knows, so you guys should stop thinking about buying GBP/USD, any up move...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #448,224
  • Jan 28, 2017 3:38pm Jan 28, 2017 3:38pm
Quoting Bones
I know with the highest confidence now we wait and see anything possible {quote}
Sure, a breakout of these 2 resistance trendlines is always possible, but betting on that breakout is a high risk low reward type of situation.
When you see that kind of extremely bearish chart, think about short selling, not buying.

There is no such thing as an oversold market, things that look "cheap" can always get cheaper.
  • #448,225
  • Jan 28, 2017 3:41pm Jan 28, 2017 3:41pm
Quoting Bones
with a bearish eur gbp weekly that wont change as I type ? {quote}
even still? with a retest of the TL normal before a drop...

the drop/break was't that significant... Dollar not that strong thanks to some tweeting/speeches and whatever from trump talking down dollar FED coming up... EG is/was a perfect buy at 0.8470... i choose highs and lows, they are always bearish bullish when they are there....

EU forming Divergence on hourly for north contradicting other divergences pointing down (h4 and daily) (MACD)

i prefer long long term longs in GU... but from lower down... - i should have kept my short and i did long at 1.2526, i want lower... via stronger dollar with a stronger JPY... (EU 1.0550-1.0600 from here without 1.0725 being beaten) GBP would need to get weaker than all of them for my conditions - but that would be hard

anything on EU would be appreciated
  • #448,226
  • Jan 28, 2017 3:44pm Jan 28, 2017 3:44pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Sorry to disappoint you but your down trendline is not really a trendline, there is too much space. You cannot just draw a line between 2 points and call it a trendline. Here is the daily equivalent of your "trendline" on your weekly chart (see chart below, the blue line): As you can see there is way too much space! Now look at the purple and red lines, these are real (resistance) trendlines and they will stop the cable on its way up. Cable is bearish, this is clearly a seller market, the GBP/USD could go to $1 who knows, so you guys...
there will be an end... we are at new lows... there is ALWAYS a retrace, even on weaker currencies retraces can be substantial... longs are more favourable now, they have better RR

just my opinion
  • #448,227
  • Jan 28, 2017 3:47pm Jan 28, 2017 3:47pm
eur gbp may want the next lower high thats it ,that chart will fall 1000 pips

Quoting Don96
{quote} even still? with a retest of the TL normal before a drop... the drop/break was't that significant... Dollar not that strong thanks to some tweeting/speeches and whatever from trump talking down dollar FED coming up... EG is/was a perfect buy at 0.8470... i choose highs and lows, they are always bearish bullish when they are there.... EU forming Divergence on hourly for north contradicting other divergences pointing down (h4 and daily) (MACD) i prefer long long term longs in GU... but from lower down... - i should have kept my short and i...
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #448,228
  • Jan 28, 2017 3:49pm Jan 28, 2017 3:49pm
Quoting Bones
eur gbp may want the next lower high thats it ,that chart will fall 1000 pips {quote}
ey, i see daily with potential to drop huge... no indicators/fibs/lines etc needed

also after a drop in EJ - i posted the level elsewhere... i didn't get the entry... EU im short heavy, UJ i sold at 115.35... hold for 112 at least...

UCAD i longed at 1.2060 - closed for +10 or so, i was after 500....

ultimately GU i want lower - any of the below levels... ill try longs on all for back into 1.3+
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  • #448,229
  • Edited 4:06pm Jan 28, 2017 3:52pm | Edited 4:06pm
Quoting Don96
we are at new lows
We humans love to buy things at a low price, it's our nature.

However, in the Stock, futures and Forex market, betting against a downtrend is ALWAYS a bad idea.

Sure there is always a retrace like you said, but that retrace could happen after another 1,000 pip drop or more, always keep that in mind.

Quoting Don96
longs are more favourable now, they have better RR just my opinion
The average trader will see the cable chart and think that the upside potential is much much bigger than the downside potential.
This thinking is extremely dangerous. Look again at the daily chart, do you at least see higher highs and higher lows?

Nope, we don't see such a thing, so why should we buy, seriously?
  • #448,230
  • Jan 28, 2017 4:30pm Jan 28, 2017 4:30pm
if its not a trendline and this chart falls there it won't respect it which I might say D1 did already both sides
how else can I draw a line given the ugly nature of the chart

Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Sorry to disappoint you but your down trendline is not really a trendline, there is too much space. You cannot just draw a line between 2 points and call it a trendline. Here is the daily equivalent of your "trendline" on your weekly chart (see chart below, the blue line): As you can see there is way too much space! Now look at the purple and red lines, these are real (resistance) trendlines and they will stop the cable on its way up. Cable is bearish, this is clearly a seller's market, the GBP/USD could go to $1 who knows, so you guys should...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #448,231
  • Jan 28, 2017 4:38pm Jan 28, 2017 4:38pm
Quoting Don96
anything on EU would be appreciated
Sure, here we go.
EU is consolidating inside an ascending channel on the 4h chart.
This is usually a bearish configuration, a breakout to the downside is the next probable move.
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  • #448,232
  • Edited 5:04pm Jan 28, 2017 4:45pm | Edited 5:04pm
Quoting Bones
if its not a trendline and this chart falls there it won't respect it which I might say D1 did already both sides how else can I draw a line given the ugly nature of the chart {quote} {image}
The problem Bones is that you are simply drawing trendlines that support your bullish point of view, and ignoring the rest.
It is always dangerous to proceed that way, look at the market from both sides, long AND short.
  • #448,233
  • Jan 28, 2017 4:48pm Jan 28, 2017 4:48pm
ok show me a valid line down ,not one that cuts through any other price ,one thats on the close's only no mix hash up or on the points


Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} The problem Bones is that you are simply drawing trendlines that support your bullish point of view.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #448,234
  • Edited 5:09pm Jan 28, 2017 4:51pm | Edited 5:09pm
Quoting Bones
ok show me a valid line down ,not one that cuts through any other price ,one thats on the close's only no mix hash up or on the fractal points {quote}
Once again Bones GBP/USD does NOT respect trendlines to the T, it always cuts through the price.

100% pure text-book trendlines rarely exist anyway, that would be too easy, anyone with a ruler could make a fortune that way.
  • #448,235
  • Jan 28, 2017 4:59pm Jan 28, 2017 4:59pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} I searched but it was easy as I remembered.....
Your the main man boss . Traders this guy is the one you follow X hic lol xxccc thank you for your time and the trouble you went too to follow up my post . As ever my very best regards Billy
  • #448,236
  • Jan 28, 2017 5:05pm Jan 28, 2017 5:05pm
I never said it was easy ,you have to start by obeying the rules as with any other tools like many you want to go on your own experience
the lower the tf the harder it is with many more points of ref

Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Once again Bones GBP/USD does NOT respect trendlines to the T, it always cuts through the price. 100% pure text-book trendlines rarely exist anyway, that would be too easy...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #448,237
  • Jan 28, 2017 5:08pm Jan 28, 2017 5:08pm
your believe that till the day you die like you believe you see 2 head and shoulders in the same line ,or without a prior trend

Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Once again Bones GBP/USD does NOT respect trendlines to the T, it always cuts through the price. 100% pure text-book trendlines rarely exist anyway, that would be too easy...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #448,238
  • Jan 28, 2017 5:23pm Jan 28, 2017 5:23pm
Quoting Bones
your believe that till the day you die like you believe you see 2 head and shoulders in the same line ,or without a prior trend {quote}
Not sure I understand your comment. You have a cryptic way of expressing your ideas.
  • #448,239
  • Jan 28, 2017 5:39pm Jan 28, 2017 5:39pm
Quoting Bones
you wont see 1.2 in the next 2 weeks ill come back to this post then or you can look at the other feed 2-week chart i posted first to see why im confident http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post9492669 {image} {image}
Let's say yo won't see 1.200 for along time why because theŁ is a strong one to trade if you wanted to buy any Kong in uk you would think anywhere at 1.2 is a very good buy ??? So now we have seen the bounce if you go back on my post you will find one that says a big bull candle on the day chart . We have that so I think remember I think ??? It will come back to the bottom support on the day ?? Neck on the line mmmmmm 2170 area mmmmm that's red wine talking now lol but say it as you see it ??? The bond that is now happening with uk and Mr T should stop any trade below the low so we need to look at the day chart and its support which I think will be tried but long term if if it hits a low above the low I will be bucking sthong
  • #448,240
  • Jan 28, 2017 5:41pm Jan 28, 2017 5:41pm
what your saying is the market didn't work to that line to the pip pretty much
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