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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,201
  • Edited 7:41am Jan 25, 2017 7:28am | Edited 7:41am
Quoting goosebone
I'm really wondering what tools the white house in particular has at their disposal if they wanted the dollar to move lower.
In theory very little.

However, US entered in uncharted territory for the first time in history electing a populist and cheap nationalism instead of liberal economic principles.

History is not really friendly from those who have crossed that line.

The empirical evidence is that populist leaders end up ignoring technical advice and economic basic principles and trying contradictory policies outcomes that end up short-circuiting the structures in the economy.

From a monetary side trying to have expansionist policies and contain the appreciation effects it always reflect in inflation first and then (because of the nature of populist 'nationhood messiah' leaders) end up sitting tight against it to prove their ego with severe recession in most historical cases.

Although there is little he can do in strictly technical sense there is a huge destruction they can make ignoring and trying to bypass economic principles for populist and very small particular corporation gains.

In a nutshell, with extreme populist i will lean towards safe rather than sorry in economic policy terms.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,202
  • Jan 25, 2017 7:56am Jan 25, 2017 7:56am
Quoting goosebone
When Trump/Mnuchin talk and tweet about a dollar too high, what can they really do about it? What actions does the president, treasury secretary need to take to flatten out a long term dollar rally? The trade policies he is actively pursuing are dollar positive in general. And (for now) the FED is independent and look ready for normalization. When Yellen is done his appointment could shake things up but that's a ways away. Not rhetorical, I'm really wondering what tools the white house in particular has at their disposal if they wanted the dollar...
Well its not that far away, 2018 is only a year away when her mandate ends, he could put someone in there that could then place some radical USD bearish policies. They wouldnt need necesarily to switch the hiking cycle of, but they could either reduce the peace or completly stop it which would cause bear impact considering that markets have been pricing up to extent the dot plot of hikes quite higher than where we are atm. Another one could be introducing QE, considering his job creation policies and 1 tril spending extension plan this one seems much more likely. It would also corelate to peace of EMs that we have set for next few years where more Tbills and bonds will be liquidated to prompt those economies so perhaps Trump could use that as excuse to push the QE (eg they are hurting us with supplying our assets, we need to buy them up and reverse the yield curve-debt king) and perhaps also using some more unconventional method of QE additional to that. Those two "solutions" could be both possible after just a year. But on short term i dont know for any substential action since majority of his actions act as counter catalyst, being bullish.
  • #147,203
  • Edited 8:42am Jan 25, 2017 8:13am | Edited 8:42am
Ok. Thanks for great responses to my question. Looks like no real tools for devaluing the dollar in the White house (besides a grenade or two) until it's time to staff the Fed and affect expectations/uncertainty of what that will look like.

Finally got the Dow20k headline.
  • #147,204
  • Jan 25, 2017 9:48am Jan 25, 2017 9:48am
Money continues to flow from treasuries to the equities. Today a new low in 10 year US bonds and a new high in SP500. However the dollar index stays approximately at the same level for a 3rd day...

Even USDJPY does not rise, although the equities fly...
  • #147,205
  • Jan 25, 2017 9:59am Jan 25, 2017 9:59am
Quoting janpec1000
TCB under-delivering on tightening as expected. Pretty decent drop altough it did retrace some. Looking for another LLs now on mid term.
And we got new LL on short term.
All along play for new fresh mid term LL (3.93 current). TCB playing on throwing good money after bad game for as long as they can, cap hike is probably still at least half year ago if not much more than that judging on the good money reserves.
  • #147,206
  • Jan 25, 2017 10:24am Jan 25, 2017 10:24am
Quoting jaxx80
Money continues to flow from treasuries to the equities. Today a new low in 10 year US bonds and a new high in SP500. However the dollar index stays approximately at the same level for a 3rd day... Even USDJPY does not rise, although the equities fly...
and Gold following as well.. All seem aligned except Dollar... But does it mean we have to wait for FED/NFP combo to see Dollar returning to 'normal' flows ? I don't have that feeling personally...
  • #147,207
  • Jan 25, 2017 10:49am Jan 25, 2017 10:49am
Nope. I remember i read something like Sisse saying now the brexit is moving to parliament meaning it will take time (2+ yrs) for something to happen the focus will change to inflation. I have been watching GBP for the past few days and there are a lot of buyers in it.... EUR on the other side is acting like people lost interest in it.
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} ...not sure if this is what you meant but sisse from earlier today. {quote}
  • #147,208
  • Jan 25, 2017 12:11pm Jan 25, 2017 12:11pm
"ding-"ding-"ding- +++ ...and we got there. Another MAJOR milestone that we called and witness live in the thread DJ 20000 !!! finally here +++

Quoting sisse
Third update:

-> Changing short term outlook in US equities from soft buy to buy

sisse
Very good days for trading across the board....after a rather long and painful couple of weeks finally getting paid here. Clearing main short term targets in US equities leaving just final open for the 'just in case' (eyeballing 2330/4.xx) in an 'exuberance' manic leg.

On the rest of the board GOLD on the move with Sterling completing the pullback and Yen finding floor for the European close. All major currencies aligned for the first time in weeks.

sisse

PS: @Xxavier t is moving to parliament meaning it will take time (2+ yrs) for something to happe ??? i think you are lost mate .... the decision its a formality but still it has to be done within days/weeks. March is around the corner ...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,209
  • Jan 25, 2017 12:33pm Jan 25, 2017 12:33pm
Quoting Xxavier
Nope. I remember i read something like Sisse saying now the brexit is moving to parliament meaning it will take time (2+ yrs) for something to happen the focus will change to inflation. I have been watching GBP for the past few days and there are a lot of buyers in it.... EUR on the other side is acting like people lost interest in it. {quote}
Correct with the assumption of inflation becoming the focal point at some stage, but he was waiting to see if BOE were to come out with a big bazooka of maybe a rate cut or more QE before changing the outlook (though with recent good figures that looks more unlikely now I think). Apart from Sterling* being short & medium term in Neutral, far as I can tell his Gbp/Usd outlooks were also short & medium term Neutral so it just depends on where you judge the current range to be. If we took top of range to be high 1.27xx then in outlook neutral I'd stay away from trading in mid range and if it rises further towards top then short from there.
Also depends on Usd too of course and if Dxy can hold this 99.80 / 100.xx level and bounces....a drop through to 99.4x before a bounce could well see Sterling up to top of range and ripe for shorting ...wait and see time. Am kind of expecting $ to finally bounce again soon and get on the bandwagon along with equities & bonds, but in true markets fashion it could well first do a cleanout beforehand and spike down (eg to that dxy 99.4x level) .....just my 2 cents.
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The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #147,210
  • Jan 25, 2017 3:48pm Jan 25, 2017 3:48pm
...and we closed in party mode. For the headlines DJ 20000 and counting with ATH everywhere in the US...

For those who have been long enough in this business ..."Once retail comes in, ...that's the time to get out" I stole this tweet from Lisa Abramowicz (Bloomberg) but nothing but pure true in 99% of the cases.

We have been here many times before.

The average Joe is starting to jump in on the uber highs and now feed with Trump promises of free cash for large corporation and the main stream media cheerleading on the background but short term we are deep in the exhaustion leg and we are starting to diverge from mid term [FED and inflation that is already here (and Treasuries are already on the move) and long term fundamentals [protectionism and fiscal irresponsibility].

Enjoy the ride until exhaust itself ...smart money are already rebalancing portfolios ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,211
  • Jan 25, 2017 4:03pm Jan 25, 2017 4:03pm
....and we rolled. Euro held steady one more time. 22 of the last 24 closes with bulls in full control without blinking ... nothing to see or do across the FX board with irrelevant closes.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,212
  • Jan 25, 2017 11:33pm Jan 25, 2017 11:33pm
Quoting goosebone
Ok. Thanks for great responses to my question. Looks like no real tools for devaluing the dollar in the White house (besides a grenade or two) until it's time to staff the Fed and affect expectations/uncertainty of what that will look like. Finally got the Dow20k headline.

Look at the hoistory Every time the USD goes up it will og down again

QE4 can devaluate the USD again. There are tools if they want
  • #147,213
  • Jan 26, 2017 9:41am Jan 26, 2017 9:41am
Finally some action for E/U. Watching the .66x level as TP1.
  • #147,214
  • Jan 26, 2017 10:15am Jan 26, 2017 10:15am
Quoting eborn
Finally some action for E/U. Watching the .66x level as TP1.
Took mine at the number of the beast. Stop is paid for now. That was a long wait. I gotta work on my timing badly. Jumping the gun just means best case I sweat for no reason.
  • #147,215
  • Jan 26, 2017 10:27am Jan 26, 2017 10:27am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Took mine at the number of the beast. Stop is paid for now. That was a long wait. I gotta work on my timing badly. Jumping the gun just means best case I sweat for no reason.
True, but there is always a fine line between jumping the gun and not jumping at all.
  • #147,216
  • Jan 26, 2017 10:38am Jan 26, 2017 10:38am
Quoting eborn
{quote} True, but there is always a fine line between jumping the gun and not jumping at all.
Seems like every time I find that line it's behind me.
  • #147,217
  • Jan 26, 2017 11:16am Jan 26, 2017 11:16am
...and finally Euro giving something. Europe going home and here clearing first target on the short term swing with the test 1.066x in a good day for trading across the board.

Sadly we couldn't lock the 1.08xx handle before the FED. Expecting US numbers / W combo to kick start the FED play that is aligning to set RMT chapter 3 in the US.

Not expecting much for the rest of the day but tracking closely the close and rolls for today across the board.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,218
  • Jan 26, 2017 11:55am Jan 26, 2017 11:55am
Tomorrow Ms May will meet Trump and this event might send Sterling up if they announce a bilateral agreement will be underway very soon, which I expect from Nuts. He is breaking with all multilateral agreements and engaging in one-to-one ones!
Such outcome might have an impact on EU (1.087). GL Everyone!
  • #147,219
  • Jan 26, 2017 12:45pm Jan 26, 2017 12:45pm
Quoting sisse
...and finally Euro giving something. Europe going home and here clearing first target on the short term swing with the test 1.066x in a good day for trading across the board. Sadly we couldn't lock the 1.08xx handle before the FED. Expecting US numbers / W combo to kick start the FED play that is aligning to set RMT chapter 3 in the US. Not expecting much for the rest of the day but tracking closely the close and rolls for today across the board. sisse
if you have a moment, could you explain the statement "couldn't lock the 1.08xx handle before the FED"? Sorry for the newbish questions but ...

1) how is a handle locked?
2) how is a handle opened?
3) definition of a handle?

etc. thanks in advance
  • #147,220
  • Jan 26, 2017 1:44pm Jan 26, 2017 1:44pm
Quoting kasper
{quote} if you have a moment, could you explain the statement "couldn't lock the 1.08xx handle before the FED"? Sorry for the newbish questions but ... 1) how is a handle locked? 2) how is a handle opened? 3) definition of a handle? etc. thanks in advance
Handle = level. In my interpretation (correct me if I'm wrong), a handle gets locked when technically and/or fundamentally the level has been rejected (or didn't even get reached because of support./resistance of lower/higher levels) and the market continues in opposite direction, especially true if it happens with an impulsive (powerful) move. I don't know why but maybe Sisse doesn't think the current move was deep enough to really lock the level and account for volatility that might happen during FED (in other words not locked = might still reach 1.08x during volatility of fed/w combo). So basically we are still too close to 1.08x to really consider it locked.

In any case take my words with a grain of salt, I'm a long term student as well in this game, but that's how I interpret this term. Feel free to add comments.
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