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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,181
  • Jan 24, 2017 1:44am Jan 24, 2017 1:44am
Heads up ... action expected today in the European session both in the Equities and FX front. Eyes on Sterling, Euro and YEN for the Asian close.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,182
  • Edited 4:00am Jan 24, 2017 3:44am | Edited 4:00am
Good numbers from the EZ and supreme court rulling against article 50 before Parliament.. inline with expectations. Sterling taking the weight short term until politicians continue ...

-Only update for today:

--> Changing short and mid term outlook in Sterling* to neutral in a very wide range.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,183
  • Jan 24, 2017 4:22am Jan 24, 2017 4:22am
Quoting sisse
Good numbers from the EZ and supreme court rulling against article 50 before Parliament.. inline with expectations. Sterling taking the weight short term until politicians continue ... -Only update for today: --> Changing short and mid term outlook in Sterling* to neutral in a very wide range. sisse
Sisse once again would you give your view about FTSE as well please
  • #147,184
  • Jan 24, 2017 6:35am Jan 24, 2017 6:35am
Sisse,

can you ligthen about short term usd extreme buy outlook. Thank you.
  • #147,185
  • Jan 24, 2017 7:02am Jan 24, 2017 7:02am
TCB under-delivering on tightening as expected. Pretty decent drop altough it did retrace some. Looking for another LLs now on mid term.
  • #147,186
  • Jan 24, 2017 7:03am Jan 24, 2017 7:03am
Quoting Traderak
Sisse, can you ligthen about short term usd extreme buy outlook. Thank you.
hi traderak ,

if you are jumping directly to the last post of sisse than my advice will be better go some last 200 pages atleast to know why, when & where sisse changes outlook .... and the reason of outlook change ...

just try it ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,187
  • Jan 24, 2017 7:07am Jan 24, 2017 7:07am
gold also looking to drop at the current level .... not much of it but still one can have a look at it ....

things are getting aligning ...

Eu full retrace on short term ..... usd full retrace on short term .... gbp was on steroids after may speech but seems exhausted after today's court decision .... (i.e., normal flow might come in ).... usd/jpy full retrace on short term ..... usd/chf tested the neckline ....

just have a look guys....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,188
  • Jan 24, 2017 7:19am Jan 24, 2017 7:19am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} hi traderak , if you are jumping directly to the last post of sisse than my advice will be better go some last 200 pages atleast to know why, when & where sisse changes outlook .... and the reason of outlook change ... just try it ....

Hi Primejarvis,

I follow thread for a long time...And I know outlook change does not mean turning point or signal. Just I clased my 114,88 shorts early when I sow outlook change to strong buy...after if it changes fron strong buy to extreme buy that is the question mark. sure after outllok change it can go even 1.08 before 1.22 may be smtg change and never turn back up but after outlook change so quickly even from strong to extreme it should not drop so more than 200 pips...if you do not care the which point we are there is no meaning to analise.
  • #147,189
  • Jan 24, 2017 7:23am Jan 24, 2017 7:23am
...or at least value of that change is less as useful as TA based timing. Except me nobody ask...it means most understood Sisse.
  • #147,190
  • Jan 24, 2017 7:57am Jan 24, 2017 7:57am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Sisse once again would you give your view about FTSE as well please
Nothing to update there.

Same v. weak long term outlook after Brexit.

Same awfully gloomy mid term storm on top until negotiations are over and we can quantity the damage.

Same short term good numbers the UK (nothing has changed yet) with BOE pushing forward and annihilated Sterling to keep the City happy riding the pig while populist fleece the country future on a one way ticket to the 1920/30 decade.

No changes so far and not many changes expected as for today until the BOE.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,191
  • Edited 9:35am Jan 24, 2017 9:23am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting Traderak
Sisse, can you ligthen about short term usd extreme buy outlook. Thank you.
My feeling was that the new US president showing zeal and (the appearance of) expedience in his efforts to push a protectionist international trade policy, that should lead strong dollar expectations for several reasons nicely laid out in a link chester123 put up the other day, was the main driver for the outlook change although sisse would be the one to confirm that of course. Also, the timing of that trade deal talk comes at almost a "choose your poison" moment on the Trump rally/reflation trade. (is it taking a breather with a natural pullback? Is it over until further notice/tweets? Is it just over?). Those were my thoughts on the switch to extreme buy (reflecting the natural retrace/pullback in the long dollar, short bonds choose your poison option there) but I could be way off of course. Saw this chart today that seems to show the volatility in credit and FX and lack of it in equity markets. Does this suggest equities markets in the US could be somewhat asleep at the wheel and waiting to be 'surprised' by a volatilty spillover? Maybe. But it does at least seem to show the strong market focus on that reflation trade with JU (not UJ) and 10YT at the top. Anyway that's what my guess is about the FA adjustment there.
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  • #147,192
  • Jan 24, 2017 10:15am Jan 24, 2017 10:15am
Thanks a lot goosebone... I also understood very cleary that volatility can come with any tweet...but it also means longer legs down and up... when usd outllook changes it effects all parities....another saying extreme sell xau...
  • #147,193
  • Edited 2:57pm Jan 24, 2017 1:46pm | Edited 2:57pm
Quoting Traderak
Thanks a lot goosebone... I also understood very cleary that volatility can come with any tweet...but it also means longer legs down and up... when usd outllook changes it effects all parities....another saying extreme sell xau...
Cool. Chart meant to point out not just any vol but implied vol in xxx/USD and 10yt price. Suggesting bullish dollar.
  • #147,194
  • Jan 24, 2017 3:31pm Jan 24, 2017 3:31pm
Decent day across the board. Equities and Commodities on the move enjoying Trump free ride gift for the big $$$ companies in Energies and Commodities.

A quasi communist (the irony... coming from a billionaire in the US) uber nationalistic, free market distorting announcement but hey.... is free money directly to the 'right' hands so is inline with expectations so far ...we just need the final pop in both to trigger the extension target before FED RMT enters in full...

On the FX board, uneventful day after the UK news with Euro bulls still holding straight.

Irrelevant close today so same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #147,195
  • Jan 24, 2017 4:36pm Jan 24, 2017 4:36pm
Not sure what the short term outlook of Sterling is.. It looks like ready to pop anytime so I took a long here with stops below the lows of yesterday....
  • #147,196
  • Jan 24, 2017 5:16pm Jan 24, 2017 5:16pm
Quoting Xxavier
Not sure what the short term outlook of Sterling is.. It looks like ready to pop anytime so I took a long here with stops below the lows of yesterday....
...not sure if this is what you meant but sisse from earlier today.

Quoting sisse
Good numbers from the EZ and supreme court rulling against article 50 before Parliament.. inline with expectations. Sterling taking the weight short term until politicians continue ... -Only update for today: --> Changing short and mid term outlook in Sterling* to neutral in a very wide range. sisse
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #147,197
  • Jan 25, 2017 1:00am Jan 25, 2017 1:00am
hi traderak,

sorry was not reply you was following everything on mobile ..... as like @goosebone said i think there is not much to say about anything last posts i guess clears everything .... and pretty much cleared one of my doubts ..... anyways i on everyone's behalf welcome's you to the thread .... may every1 gets benefit from the thread and have accounted green pips ....

happy trading ... and Green pips to all ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,198
  • Edited 7:25am Jan 25, 2017 7:05am | Edited 7:25am
When Trump/Mnuchin talk and tweet about a dollar too high, what can they really do about it? What actions does the president, treasury secretary need to take to flatten out a long term dollar rally? The trade policies he is actively pursuing are dollar positive in general. And (for now) the FED is independent and look ready for normalization. When Yellen is done his appointment could shake things up but that's a ways away.
Not rhetorical, I'm really wondering what tools the white house in particular has at their disposal if they wanted the dollar to move lower. I know they can print money (does Congress give the order on that?) but I imagine that would kick up some political dust. Curious to know who's holding what cards here.
  • #147,199
  • Jan 25, 2017 7:24am Jan 25, 2017 7:24am
Quoting goosebone
I'm really wondering what tools the white house in particular has at their disposal if they wanted the dollar to move lower.
the president has all the tools like tweeting .... after #going to bath .... #taken the bath...

this guy tweets like a teenager .... #trying a new chocolate .... ridiculous ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,200
  • Jan 25, 2017 7:24am Jan 25, 2017 7:24am
Quoting goosebone
I'm really wondering what tools the white house in particular has at their disposal if they wanted the dollar to move lower.

The buck is rallying for 10 years already. And as Sissee pointed the mid and long term legs are close to exhaustion. Would not it be good to demonstrate control over things by making such statement? The buck is approaching the point of reversal and politicians will say "that's what we needed" as if it's their achievement.
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