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The Really Useless Thread

  • #147,141
  • Jan 20, 2017 11:17am Jan 20, 2017 11:17am
Second update.

--> Changing mid term outlook in US equities from Neutral to soft sell
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  • #147,142
  • Jan 20, 2017 11:17am Jan 20, 2017 11:17am
Third update:

-> Changing short term outlook in US equities from soft buy to buy

sisse
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  • #147,143
  • Jan 20, 2017 11:18am Jan 20, 2017 11:18am
and finally

-> Changing short term outlook in Dollar from buy to strong buy

sisse
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  • #147,144
  • Jan 20, 2017 11:21am Jan 20, 2017 11:21am
...and thats was all for the small expected news today and week.

A uber nationalistic, xenophobic, protectionist speech to please the Trumpeters ...world economy and peace are officially under threat from Q2/Q3 onwards...

GL to all.of us...trading wise US Equities to give the go ahead ...until then...

sisse
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  • #147,145
  • Jan 20, 2017 11:29am Jan 20, 2017 11:29am
That's all no excitement ... Boring Trump .... It was like the first fed hike after a decade ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #147,146
  • Jan 20, 2017 12:48pm Jan 20, 2017 12:48pm
Peso to Trump: What else you got?
Not much was expected from the speech, looks like MXN is taking a breather before the storm.
  • #147,147
  • Jan 20, 2017 1:26pm Jan 20, 2017 1:26pm
Holy shi*#t the protesting thing looks like it goes out of hand... looks like a warzone.
  • #147,148
  • Jan 20, 2017 1:34pm Jan 20, 2017 1:34pm
weakness of dollar is suspicious squeeze to 1.08xx ?
  • #147,149
  • Jan 20, 2017 1:39pm Jan 20, 2017 1:39pm
Quoting Replicant
weakness of dollar is suspicious squeeze to 1.08xx ?
Mild squeeze only, 0700 and 0720 are naked. If your getting in on micros its a good atempt for scalp.
  • #147,150
  • Jan 20, 2017 1:46pm Jan 20, 2017 1:46pm
Quoting janpec1000
Peso to Trump: What else you got? Not much was expected from the speech, looks like MXN is taking a breather before the storm.
We are going to have a hell of a ride with populists in control in the next few months ...wont be nice in reality but would be definitively crazy tradable.

sisse

Quoting Replicant
weakness of dollar is suspicious squeeze to 1.08xx ?
We definitely witnessing a strong short-circuit in Dollar pointing that the end of the mid and long term trend is around the corner. On the short term whoever keeps buying Euro in every micro dip in the last few weeks is gunning at 1.08xx, still I am not convinced we will get there.

Whatever the case, after inauguration and with markets expecting the details on how the fiscal blow out pie in infrastructure will be distributed, we are literally days away from triggering RMT chapter 3 in the hike cycle.

For today, Euro is set to hold one more time. Tracking very closely to see if we finally break or extend the highs one more time in 6 consecutive weeks of poor nearly untradable noisy action.

sisse
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  • #147,151
  • Jan 20, 2017 2:05pm Jan 20, 2017 2:05pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} I dont see downside on gold tomorrow, rather upside escalation (USD bear tomorrow, not sure which time speech is but downside USD is opened for now till better part of tomorrow). Probability side its more likely.
And thats what we got, surprise surprise. All baked in the probabilities. Gold printing HH without invalidation and dollar LL on short term. Managed to get some pretty micro entries on 1200.5 just on the low gold, and stacked some dollar shorts on three micro short squeezes (stops BE on all). 0720 patiently awaits to be taken out on EU.
If all is well EUR should have clearout in tomorrow session with EA completing minimum clearout target.
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  • #147,152
  • Jan 20, 2017 2:19pm Jan 20, 2017 2:19pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} And thats what we got, surprise surprise. All baked in the probabilities. Gold printing HH without invalidation and dollar LL on short term. Managed to get some pretty micro entries on 1200.5 just on the low gold, and stacked some dollar shorts on three micro short squeezes (stops BE on all). 0720 patiently awaits to be taken out on EU. If all is well EUR should have clearout in tomorrow session with EA completing minimum clearout target. {image}
Tomorrow it won't happen. Time to take a break.
  • #147,153
  • Jan 20, 2017 3:24pm Jan 20, 2017 3:24pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Tomorrow it won't happen. Time to take a break.
  • #147,154
  • Edited 3:46pm Jan 20, 2017 3:36pm | Edited 3:46pm
US equities closing week still the in the 2nd Monthly narrowest range in 42 years!!! but we now have cleared all the major scheduled events (outside of economic reports) for the Quarter.

We got a double game changer in play in UK and US.... got what I needed in that front now we'll enter in trading time across the board as markets have been particularly dull these last few weeks.

Euro still fighting for the roll but bulls are set to hold for another week (5th consecutive week ..we haven't seen this since 2012/13..obviously with long and mid term aligned to short most of the time) sending early warning signals on what is about to come later in the year.

sisse
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  • #147,155
  • Edited 4:24pm Jan 20, 2017 4:07pm | Edited 4:24pm
...and we rolled. Euro held one more time with a neutral W close but a very bullish daily close leaving the 1.08xx naked for a test. For the third time this year clearing all Euro positions for a 2nd scratch position in a row and for the third time too a mini reverso play at the roll 1.067x -> 1.073x -> max ext 1.084x...

sisse
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  • #147,156
  • Jan 23, 2017 2:16am Jan 23, 2017 2:16am
Direct clean sweep across the board in Dollar for the European open. In the Euro as suspected since Friday, 1.073x tested in a direct move with bulls in a clean up of pretty much all soft and non so soft short positions after FED hikes.

Back to the top of the range, didn't expect at all this short term retrace to extend that high for this month. First time we have Dollar jitters outside of FED flops in a few years. Trump weighting very heavy the last couple of weeks.

On the Dollar side, expectations are still heavily aligned in the short term to Trump fiscal and infrastructure money blow out for large corporations. It will be a matter of a 'tweet confirmation' rather than the actual approval of any plan (trade expectations first ...facts later kind of environment).

On the rest of the board, noise and political BS from the UK expected to be hitting the wires in the upcoming days with world equities taking the backseat after Trump inauguration unlocked a very dark cloud over the global economy for the mid term. We are set for very choppy and limited moves there until US equities gives the go ahead for the next move.

sisse
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  • #147,157
  • Jan 23, 2017 2:27am Jan 23, 2017 2:27am
I think its getting to choose your poison on short term. However, I do not know if its gonna do the extension. Its wide open technically. Would be perfect to get add cheap tickets.
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  • #147,158
  • Jan 23, 2017 3:56am Jan 23, 2017 3:56am
Quoting chester123
I think its getting to choose your poison on short term. However, I do not know if its gonna do the extension. Its wide open technically. Would be perfect to get add cheap tickets. {image}
Indeed.

We have a very light calendar for the rest of the month too except political noise. After Trump inauguration we will enter again in RMT on the next trigger from the US. Either a tweet announcing fiscal expansion, etc or the next round numbers (inflation macro numbers or employment any will do the trick).


sisse
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  • #147,159
  • Jan 23, 2017 4:26am Jan 23, 2017 4:26am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} And thats what we got, surprise surprise. All baked in the probabilities. Gold printing HH without invalidation and dollar LL on short term. Managed to get some pretty micro entries on 1200.5 just on the low gold, and stacked some dollar shorts on three micro short squeezes (stops BE on all). 0720 patiently awaits to be taken out on EU. If all is well EUR should have clearout in tomorrow session with EA completing minimum clearout target. {image}
EA completing first target in "tomorrow" session as expected, taking of some leaving the rest afloat for second target. EU 720 done in Asia nothing else to see atm.
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  • #147,160
  • Jan 23, 2017 7:46am Jan 23, 2017 7:46am
....and here we go. US officially opening the protectionism chapter unlocking this door for the first time in nearly 100 years (who would have thought the US will be the one). TPP end as expected over and NAFTA on the way to be flush down the toilet. This going to end up very very very very extremely bad not only for the US but for the whole world.


Watch-out for MXN and in general emergent economies currencies for a fresh leg of major proportions. US crossed the line and therefore free ride across the world in currencies and international reactions is expected for the rest of the year.

Like usual in case of protectionism wars and currency used as a political tool V. short term will benefit the largest side but in the mid term is just a disaster on the making for all sides.

Smelling a debacle in the US and world economy cooking at boiling heat in the background...

Expecting major short-circuits in most currencies for this Quarter, including Dollar.

sisse
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