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  • #521
  • Jan 8, 2017 4:10am Jan 8, 2017 4:10am
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Goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary
  • #522
  • Jan 8, 2017 7:20pm Jan 8, 2017 7:20pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...I never met anyone who actually got short the shares of those dogs.....somebody is doing it somewhere, I guess - somebody well-placed and well-heeled....
I assume the way to do it would be with an ITM short call, but that's a fairly crude way to approach that ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #523
  • Jan 8, 2017 7:24pm Jan 8, 2017 7:24pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}TSLA iv's already started coming up a couple weeks ago......when I have missed the boat on the iv rush I will still keep an eye out for an outrageous move to fade post ER {image}


I was kinda expecting the screen to yield more stuff on the low IV end of the spectrum -- sub-15 IVR ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #524
  • Jan 8, 2017 9:47pm Jan 8, 2017 9:47pm
For the VIX/short vol traders out there: https://www.cboe.com/micro/buywrite/...rPortfolio.pdf Nutshell, I guess, is to short volatility as a standalone "investment" (is that what that is?) strategy ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #525
  • Jan 8, 2017 10:09pm Jan 8, 2017 10:09pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
For the VIX/short vol traders out there: https://www.cboe.com/micro/buywrite/...rPortfolio.pdf Nutshell, I guess, is to short volatility as a standalone "investment" (is that what that is?) strategy ... .
I think with that, I have officially descended into "VIX nerd-dom." That article is a few levels above mere "VIX hobbyist."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #526
  • Jan 9, 2017 1:30am Jan 9, 2017 1:30am
the short vol dream sounds good on paper, I just have not been able to pull it off
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #527
  • Jan 9, 2017 6:07pm Jan 9, 2017 6:07pm
Quoting The Fool
the short vol dream sounds good on paper, I just have not been able to pull it off
It always does ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #528
  • Jan 9, 2017 6:09pm Jan 9, 2017 6:09pm
Covering: LULU Jan 20th 57.5/70/70/80 iron fly for a 4.20 debit. This is an earnings play gone bad; exiting here for scratch, so managed to massage a loser into a non-loser in fairly short order. Full chain: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/LU...7-IRON-CONDOR/

Covering: FXI Jan 27th 32.5/35.5/35.5/38 iron fly for a 1.15 db (25% max). In for a 1.53 credit; out for 1.15; $38 gross profit; $26 net after fees/comms. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/FX...5-38-IRON-FLY/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #529
  • Jan 10, 2017 11:02am Jan 10, 2017 11:02am
Covering: VIX Feb 20th 17/20 short call vert for a .33/contract db (50% max). In for .66, out for .33: $33 gross profit/contract; $26-ish/contract after fees/comms.

Still have a 16/19 on in the same expiry ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #530
  • Jan 10, 2017 11:24am Jan 10, 2017 11:24am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Covering: VIX Feb 20th 17/20 short call vert for a .33/contract db (50% max). In for .66, out for .33: $33 gross profit/contract; $26-ish/contract after fees/comms. Still have a 16/19 on in the same expiry ... .
More than one person has asked why I don't wait longer on these ... . Like more toward max profit. As we all know, VIX can pop unexpectedly and turn a winner (albeit small) into a loser, so my preference is to "money, take, run" on these and redeploy the buying power elsewhere or wait for another opportunity ... . Moreover, this particular trade was put on on 12/30 and when the market gives you 50% max in 10 days, I say "take it."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #531
  • Jan 10, 2017 11:37am Jan 10, 2017 11:37am
Quoting The Fool
the short vol dream sounds good on paper, I just have not been able to pull it off
Just when you think everything is going along "honkey dorey," you get a pop like we had after the first Dec 2015 rate hike. The pop was sustained, had secondary elements (pop, ebb, re-pop), and the derivatives swung into backwardation. It blows, but you end up rolling out short call verts "as is" and just playing the waiting game for volatility to come in ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #532
  • Jan 10, 2017 1:30pm Jan 10, 2017 1:30pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} More than one person has asked why I don't wait longer on these ... .
a lot of my trades are set up m/l all or nothing, I don't mind riding them into total loss because they were very cheap debits in the first place. It's ok when I am shooting well, but the small losses add up when I am not. In reality, most of my trades are in profit sometime after entry and if I just took profit when it was there, I'd prolly be a lot better off.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #533
  • Jan 10, 2017 3:10pm Jan 10, 2017 3:10pm
Covering: AG Covered Call for a 7.44 credit. The whole bloody chain here. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AG...-COVERED-CALL/

Ordinarily, I'd work the short call side of this until I could exit for scratch, but gotta wrap crap up in my TDA account to move over to TastyWorks, so she's gotta go ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #534
  • Jan 10, 2017 3:11pm Jan 10, 2017 3:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} a lot of my trades are set up m/l all or nothing, I don't mind riding them into total loss because they were very cheap debits in the first place. It's ok when I am shooting well, but the small losses add up when I am not. In reality, most of my trades are in profit sometime after entry and if I just took profit when it was there, I'd prolly be a lot better off.
That being said, more than once have I looked back and said, "Crap ... . Shoulda let that ride."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #535
  • Jan 10, 2017 3:41pm Jan 10, 2017 3:41pm
yep....it ain't easy but sometimes I get lucky. A few months back I scored a 40x winner on a SPY calendar, pinned $225 perfectly at expiry...the day b4 expiry it was at 2x and I took some off.....nuts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #536
  • Jan 10, 2017 4:04pm Jan 10, 2017 4:04pm
Quoting The Fool
yep....it ain't easy but sometimes I get lucky. A few months back I scored a 40x winner on a SPY calendar, pinned $225 perfectly at expiry...the day b4 expiry it was at 2x and I took some off.....nuts
Some of these setups, I can "peel some off," as I would with a large lot spot forex trade, but it would depend on the instrument and the number of contracts involved ... .

Generally speaking, though, I'm somewhat lazy, don't like to cogitate on trades a great deal, and would rather just rip the whole thing off in some modest profit, move on, and don't look back ... . Basically, it's (1) I get filled; (2) immediately enter an order to take profit on the whole burrito at, for example, 50% max; and (3) log in to check for setups' delta balance, yada yada ... . Makes for fairly quick work for a guy with a day job.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #537
  • Jan 11, 2017 6:29pm Jan 11, 2017 6:29pm
Covering these as small winners today while I can:

Covering: XBI Feb 17th 53/62/62/71 iron fly for a 4.81 db. In for a 5.29, out for 4.81; $48 gross, $36, net profit, after fees/comms.

Covering: NVDA Jan 20th 96/101/115/120 iron condor for a .99 db; $44 gross, $29 net after fees comms.

Covering: XRT Feb 6th 41.5/44.5/44.5/48 iron fly for a 1.52 db; in for a 2.00 cr; out for a 1.52 db; $48 gross, $36 net profit after fees.

Down to three setups: a SPY iron condor, an FXE iron fly, and a VIX short call vert ... . It's been literally years since I've been totally flat ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #538
  • Jan 12, 2017 7:19am Jan 12, 2017 7:19am
UVXY splits 5-1 to around $31 (pre-market). As TheFool pointed out, it'll take some time for options to populate before I can short that mofo ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #539
  • Jan 12, 2017 10:21am Jan 12, 2017 10:21am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
UVXY splits 5-1 to around $31 (pre-market). As TheFool pointed out, it'll take some time for options to populate before I can short that mofo ... .
with luck, it'll pop up (gimme some crazyass Trump tweets) and we can find a good tippytop entry - if that'll play out over the next month or so the chains will have a chance to populate some. I have watched this before, though, and if you are looking for a good deal the bastards are one step ahead of you and it'll be hard to find------unless we pop. Good luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #540
  • Jan 12, 2017 6:49pm Jan 12, 2017 6:49pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}with luck, it'll pop up (gimme some crazyass Trump tweets) and we can find a good tippytop entry - if that'll play out over the next month or so the chains will have a chance to populate some. I have watched this before, though, and if you are looking for a good deal the bastards are one step ahead of you and it'll be hard to find------unless we pop. Good luck.
Looks like the first "fully populated" expiry is March monthly as of right now ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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