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  • #501
  • Jan 5, 2017 9:39pm Jan 5, 2017 9:39pm
UVXY: Post-Split "Contango Drift" Trade: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/UV...CALL-VERTICAL/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #502
  • Jan 5, 2017 10:43pm Jan 5, 2017 10:43pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
UVXY: Post-Split "Contango Drift" Trade:
nothing's easy, right after the split the available strikes are limited, it takes time to populate all the chains with many strikes....quite some time.....but hey, there's still SVXY.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #503
  • Jan 6, 2017 5:40pm Jan 6, 2017 5:40pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}nothing's easy, right after the split the available strikes are limited, it takes time to populate all the chains with many strikes....quite some time.....but hey, there's still SVXY.....
Yep. You always have to do a "look see." Sometimes it looks good "on paper," but the sex appeal wears off when you "meet it in person."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #504
  • Jan 6, 2017 5:44pm Jan 6, 2017 5:44pm
are you rockin tastyworks yet?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #505
  • Jan 6, 2017 8:52pm Jan 6, 2017 8:52pm
Quoting The Fool
are you rockin tastyworks yet?
I still have TDA setups on which I'd like to exit profitably, so no particular rush ... . Next coupla weeks, I'll download, piddle about ... . Throw some money in to get crankin' by the end of Jan, probs.

As suspected, the manner in which ToS groups (or doesn't group) setups leaves much to be desired ... . You have any more than a couple of setups on in a given instrument and, shit, alphabet soup ... .

I don't need trading to be any more work than it already is.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #506
  • Jan 6, 2017 9:02pm Jan 6, 2017 9:02pm
after having TDA screw up my margin state by misassigning spread legs MULTIPLE times, I get the feeling maybe they bought the tos machine but the brainpower to run it right didn't come with....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #507
  • Jan 6, 2017 9:11pm Jan 6, 2017 9:11pm
Quoting The Fool
after having TDA screw up my margin state by misassigning spread legs MULTIPLE times, I get the feeling maybe they bought the tos machine but the brainpower to run it right didn't come with....
Well, my guess it's the classic broker thing. Train customer service to a "given level" (short puts, covered calls) and push all the complicated stuff to "broker assisted". Additionally, the software developers don't trade options, so they can't make suggestions as to what would be "cool" or "useful"; they just do what the "old school" brokers tell them to do ... .

I mean, how hard can it be to program in a grouping function? Geez ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #508
  • Jan 6, 2017 9:25pm Jan 6, 2017 9:25pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
. . I mean, how hard can it be to program in a grouping function? Geez ... .
no shit - how bout keeping things grouped the way they were grouped on entry? Anyway, I'll keep looking. I have got to the point where I could run up good stacks of SPX options across the near/mid term but I'm afraid to do it at TDA because their "system" can't seem to handle it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #509
  • Jan 7, 2017 8:05pm Jan 7, 2017 8:05pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}no shit - how bout keeping things grouped the way they were grouped on entry? Anyway, I'll keep looking. I have got to the point where I could run up good stacks of SPX options across the near/mid term but I'm afraid to do it at TDA because their "system" can't seem to handle it.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #510
  • Jan 7, 2017 8:21pm Jan 7, 2017 8:21pm
VIX between rock and hard place here ... .

On Friday, VIX spot settled at 11.32, with the Jan futures priced at 12.88; Feb 14.66; March 16.00 ... . I generally like to do "Term Structure" trades in the first month where the future is priced above the 252-day MA (which is around 15 1/2), but that would be March, which is kind of far out in time for my tastes (currently 70 odd DTE). In other words: hand sitting, waiting for a VIX pop to do a "Term Structure" trade in VIX options in an expiry closer to 45 DTE.

And, if I'm waiting for a "Term Structure" trade pop, it means I'm also waiting for a >20 VIX pop to do "Contango Drift" trades in VXX et al. For those, I short VXX/UVXY* with an ATM short call vertical on pops of the VIX to >20 in an expiry 45 DTE. No die there either ... .

* -- The alternative being to long SVXY with an ATM short put vertical, but both UVXY and SVXY have crappy liquidity ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #511
  • Jan 7, 2017 8:27pm Jan 7, 2017 8:27pm
Here are the high IVR (6 month Dough)/high IV underlyings I screened for as of Fri close:

NVDA 98/61
NFLX 92/56
KATE 90/58
FIT 89/81
HTZ 88/65
GME 87/80
CF 81/54
GPRO 79/83
EXPR 72/50

A good number of these are running into earnings announcements (NVDA, NFLX, yada yada), and I generally prefer to play those around earnings as a volatility contraction play, so don't want to meddle with getting into plays here.

I did look at ETF's, but there is no ETF with an IVR of >70% and an IV >35% out there (unless you count UNG (72/51), which I prefer to play directionally and for seasonality).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #512
  • Jan 7, 2017 8:30pm Jan 7, 2017 8:30pm
Although there are some earnings of note next week (JPM, WFC), I generally don't play those because their IV is generally low, so I can't collect enough premium for those to be worthwhile ... .

The first earnings I'm at all interested in at the moment is NFLX, which is still 11 days out. It has the "right" IVR/IV metrics I'm looking for -- >70% IVR (6 month Dough) and >50% IV ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #513
  • Jan 7, 2017 8:40pm Jan 7, 2017 8:40pm
Wait a sec ... . There's GDXJ (so-called "Junior Gold Miners) with an IVR of 93 and an IV of 58. It's not as liquid as its more popular cousin, GDX, but it has the right metrics ... . The Feb 17th, 20 delta short strangle -- the 31/42 -- is going for 1.67 ($168)/contract credit at the mid, so that's a possible.

The defined risk alternative: Feb 17th 28/31/42/46 "dynamic" iron condor (sell the 20 delta shorts, buy the 10 delta longs) will bring in .93 ($93)/contract credit at the mid; 63% POP, $307 max loss; break evens 30.07/42.93.

These are off hours quotes, so you may or may not get those kinds of fills at NY open ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #514
  • Jan 7, 2017 8:52pm Jan 7, 2017 8:52pm
slow grind up territory for US equities, imho. We have the Jan FOMC at the end of the month, right in the thick of earnings season, could be interesting. I am scoping out earnings trades, some of the big names that have run up so well since 11/7 will need to blow off some steam, maybe the ER's will be their chance (i.e., I'm looking to fade.....)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #515
  • Jan 7, 2017 10:31pm Jan 7, 2017 10:31pm
Quoting The Fool
slow grind up territory for US equities, imho. We have the Jan FOMC at the end of the month, right in the thick of earnings season, could be interesting. I am scoping out earnings trades, some of the big names that have run up so well since 11/7 will need to blow off some steam, maybe the ER's will be their chance (i.e., I'm looking to fade.....)
Kitties/double diags I presume? I need to run some screenage for those ... .

For all your kids out there, this would be a screen for low IVR -- the closer to "0", the mas bueno ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #516
  • Jan 7, 2017 10:39pm Jan 7, 2017 10:39pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Kitties/double diags I presume? I need to run some screenage for those ... . For all your kids out there, this would be a screen for low IVR -- the closer to "0", the mas bueno ... .
Possibles (>30 Days Out for Earnings):

TSLA, earnings 32 days out, IVR*/IV 16/45
WFM, earnings 32 out, IVR/IV 35/34
DIS, 38 out, IVR/IV 35/22
HD, 45 out, IVR/IV 19/20
COST, 54 out, IVR/IV 30/19

* -- 52 Week ToS

Just for kicks: SPY IVR/IV 6/12 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #517
  • Jan 7, 2017 10:52pm Jan 7, 2017 10:52pm
Interesting: http://www.fool.com/investing/2017/0...ck-market.aspx

In a nutshell, the first way: Penny Stocks. The second: long VIX derivatives ... .

By implication, I guess, short VIX derivatives would be one way to "make all of your money in the stock market," no? Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #518
  • Jan 8, 2017 12:35am Jan 8, 2017 12:35am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
short VIX derivatives would be one way to "make all of your money in the stock market," no? Lol.
...I never met anyone who actually got short the shares of those dogs.....somebody is doing it somewhere, I guess - somebody well-placed and well-heeled....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #519
  • Jan 8, 2017 1:02am Jan 8, 2017 1:02am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Kitties/double diags I presume? I need to run some screenage for those ... . For all your kids out there, this would be a screen for low IVR -- the closer to "0", the mas bueno ... .
TSLA iv's already started coming up a couple weeks ago......when I have missed the boat on the iv rush I will still keep an eye out for an outrageous move to fade post ER
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #520
  • Edited 4:14am Jan 8, 2017 4:00am | Edited 4:14am
Experienced traders here..I am still in newbie who is learning how to trade options..I hope to learn more from you guys on this thread.I have a question.I watched a video on youtube and the guy mentioned that selling put option for premiums when VIX breaks the upper bollinger band is ideal because when the VIX is high option prices are also high ..I would be glad if you can share your opinion on this.Attached is a screenshot of what I mean.Thank you.
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