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  • #541
  • Jan 12, 2017 6:53pm Jan 12, 2017 6:53pm
Opening: VIX March 22nd 16/19 short call vert for a .71 ($71)/contract credit ... . ("Term Structure" trade). Details, explanation, "fancy graphs" here. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VI...ORT-CALL-VERT/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #542
  • Jan 12, 2017 9:47pm Jan 12, 2017 9:47pm
At some point, I will stop feeling sorry for the clowns who don't understand backwardation, contango, or the fact that SVXY is an inverse:

Attached Image


(Posted on the StockTwits UVXY Thread).

Not sure when UVXY every "tripled" off lows (unless it involved a rev split) ... . Details ... . Shmeetails ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #543
  • Jan 12, 2017 9:52pm Jan 12, 2017 9:52pm
Speaking of which, contango enormously brutal here for long UVXY, VXX holders:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1:12:17 CONTANGO RATE.jpg Size: 21 KB


Unfortunately, contango never lasts forever, but it can last a very long time ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #544
  • Jan 12, 2017 10:31pm Jan 12, 2017 10:31pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Looks like the first "fully populated" expiry is March monthly as of right now ... .
I don't see any straight 100's yet....no rush tho
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #545
  • Jan 12, 2017 10:39pm Jan 12, 2017 10:39pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... . Details ... . Shmeetails ... .
back when Yahoo had good boards, I used to post under UVXY sometimes, seemingly a never-ending stream of losers who were just trading the shares, trying to bottom pick. Many a sad tail of woe.....

Anyhoo, I am over my long vol habit. I will still pull the toolkit out when I see a really good binary opp coming - and I have gotten stingy about allowing what those may be...otherwise, I might throw the long call UVXY and VXX spreads out there at low capital risk, like lotto tix....somewhere in the 12-step program you leave that shit behind, too....I'm getting there.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #546
  • Jan 13, 2017 6:05pm Jan 13, 2017 6:05pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I don't see any straight 100's yet....no rush tho
Would blow to put something on in one of those non-standard 20's ... . Lol.

Entirely possible when I glanced at the options, that that was exactly what I was looking at -- populated "20's."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #547
  • Jan 13, 2017 6:13pm Jan 13, 2017 6:13pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}back when Yahoo had good boards, I used to post under UVXY sometimes, seemingly a never-ending stream of losers who were just trading the shares, trying to bottom pick. Many a sad tail of woe..... Anyhoo, I am over my long vol habit. I will still pull the toolkit out when I see a really good binary opp coming - and I have gotten stingy about allowing what those may be...otherwise, I might throw the long call UVXY and VXX spreads out there at low capital risk, like lotto tix....somewhere in the 12-step program you leave that shit behind, too....I'm...
Actually, looking back at 2016, we did have some decent binary event pops -- early 2016, post first rate hike in forever; Brexit; and the elections ... . It was all the "in between" that was brutal for long vol, particularly in the derivatives ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #548
  • Jan 13, 2017 6:16pm Jan 13, 2017 6:16pm
Covering: VIX Feb 17th 16/19 short call vert for a .38 db. In for .68; out for .38; $30 gross profit. Didn't want to hang onto this little fella too long, since I've already started opening crap up in March ... .

(Still waiting on TastyWorks ... .)
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #549
  • Jan 13, 2017 6:36pm Jan 13, 2017 6:36pm
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/r...174800307.html

mofo touch my marshmallows mofo gonna get shanked
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #550
  • Jan 13, 2017 7:10pm Jan 13, 2017 7:10pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Actually, looking back at 2016, we did have some decent binary event pops -- early 2016, post first rate hike in forever; Brexit; and the elections ... . It was all the "in between" that was brutal for long vol, particularly in the derivatives ... .
YESSSSS....the two 2016 elections were awesome....not so easy to trade but I learned a lot.....before that the Brazilian election (2014?) was very good....national elections are often the best binary opps.....looking forward in 2017 perhaps the French but especially the German......April/May then October, but we'll see how those pan out for vol......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #551
  • Jan 13, 2017 8:56pm Jan 13, 2017 8:56pm
Quoting The Fool
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/r...174800307.html mofo touch my marshmallows mofo gonna get shanked
Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #552
  • Jan 13, 2017 9:09pm Jan 13, 2017 9:09pm
Somehow all the positive TastyWorks buzz is outweighed by a bit of software glitchiness. A couple of concerning messages in their Twitter feed:

Attached Image


I don't know about you, but I prefer not having "trading headaches," low fee or otherwise, and personally don't want to be a "platform guinea pig." Granted, a mere 10 days into launch ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #553
  • Jan 13, 2017 11:09pm Jan 13, 2017 11:09pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I don't know about you, but I prefer not having "trading headaches," low fee or otherwise, and personally don't want to be a "platform guinea pig." Granted, a mere 10 days into launch ... .
Yeah they will coast on the "hey we're new" excuse for a while....anyway I have not found anywhere that's perfect yet. I am only trading E* and TDA accounts right now. Both suck for fees. Both have screwed up some of my orders and frozen my accounts with margin calls that should not have been there. I get better and quicker fills from E* and they have the better people to talk to (go straight to the "derivatives desk" guys in Chicago).

I have been thinking I would move trading accounts but not done that yet a) because I am working dayjobs full throttle & not trading that much anyway since mid-Dec and b) cuz I don't know where to go. I have been meaning to call tradier and get a feel for them and ask them if they really limit spread trading on indices (wtf? - I read that @ the SO forum), also been meaning to try to run a LiveVol demo. I think I could go back to IB if I had a better platform to use there and I think they take LiveVol.

I have been meaning to look again at doing a self-directed IRA move and if I do that I would do RE development projects with the goldenyears money. I think that is what I may do and I would do short plats and build rental houses on the lots. I could LLC with bigger land developers and builders I know and trade engineering services for equity. This is prolly what I will do as I have some big projects coming up in 2017 and beyond & will need something to do with the revenue.

Fuck trading. It eats up a lot of time and trading has really sucked for much of the last few years. After dicking around with active trading for the last 6 years or so I know how to make good money doing it and the really good opps to do that just don't come up that often. That could change and probably will....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #554
  • Jan 14, 2017 9:42pm Jan 14, 2017 9:42pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Yeah they will coast on the "hey we're new" excuse for a while....anyway I have not found anywhere that's perfect yet. I am only trading E* and TDA accounts right now. Both suck for fees. Both have screwed up some of my orders and frozen my accounts with margin calls that should not have been there. I get better and quicker fills from E* and they have the better people to talk to (go straight to the "derivatives desk" guys in Chicago). I have been thinking I would move trading accounts but not done that yet a) because I am working dayjobs...
Trading's a manic sport. It's great when your team is winning consistently; not so great when they're sucking hard ... .

For me, it is all about routine and not looking hard for trades. If you're "looking hard," it means that there probably isn't really anything decent there, and you should just log off and wait to look again tomorrow. With premium selling, vol is either there or it isn't. Naturally, you can always root around and find volatility somewhere, but if it isn't in "quality", then you're probably just wasting your time or setting yourself for one kind of headache or another.

Trade small, sure. But trade often only when it makes to do that. Forcing shit on just to "often" it is the dumbest goddamn thing you can do.

Oddly enough, the most productive "trade" last year was the simplest and most boring -- the SPY covered call IRA. Sure, I sold a few SPY puts in that bugger, made a couple small purchases at the uber dips we had, but mostly it was looking at the short calls toward expiration and either pulling them off for near worthless or rolling them up and out for duration/credit. Sometimes, the boring, most infrequent trading turns out to be the most productive ... . Who woulda thunk, really?
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #555
  • Jan 14, 2017 9:51pm Jan 14, 2017 9:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Yeah they will coast on the "hey we're new" excuse for a while....anyway I have not found anywhere that's perfect yet. I am only trading E* and TDA accounts right now. Both suck for fees. Both have screwed up some of my orders and frozen my accounts with margin calls that should not have been there. I get better and quicker fills from E* and they have the better people to talk to (go straight to the "derivatives desk" guys in Chicago). I have been thinking I would move trading accounts but not done that yet a) because I am working dayjobs...
I'll post about my TastyWorks experience once I get up and running ... . I generally have a low tolerance for bullshit, headaches these days, so if it's a headache, well, you'll probably know it from my postings here.

I'll be transferring over the kid's account first. Given the size of the account, the TastyWorks fee arrangement will make a big diff with fee/profit ratio .... .

* -- Sorry, kid, but it's free money to you, so if I lose a little bit running with a new broker, well, you won't be out anything you didn't have in the first place. Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #556
  • Jan 15, 2017 12:12am Jan 15, 2017 12:12am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Trade small, sure. But trade often only when it makes to do that.
Nothing wrong with trading small and it's all relative, anyway - just trade within the framework of good mm - max at risk limits, max drawdown limits, etc, and also always know what can go wrong with positions, know all the limits you are imposing at all times and manage trades within those.

"Trade often" otoh, is insidious advice: one thing I can say and usually do if anyone asks, "what would you do differently?" - it's "trade less".....be more selective about entering trades. The best money in trading is made on the best opps and they are really few and far between.

I'm in a handful of trades right now but they're all on the smallest end of where I usually size. I don't doubt that Trump could tweet the markets into a steep slide but that kind of thing is impossible to time....meanwhile I got lots of other shit to do. Sometimes (often) the best trade is no trade.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #557
  • Jan 15, 2017 2:14pm Jan 15, 2017 2:14pm
The weekend ahead for premium sellers in a nutshell: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VI...REMIUM-SELLER/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #558
  • Jan 17, 2017 8:15am Jan 17, 2017 8:15am
Opening: VIX April 17th 17/20 short call vert ("Term Structure" trade). Looking for a .75 credit fill. I already have a March 16/19 short call vert on; otherwise, I'd go there ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #559
  • Jan 17, 2017 8:35am Jan 17, 2017 8:35am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Opening: VIX April 17th 17/20 short call vert ("Term Structure" trade). Looking for a .75 credit fill. I already have a March 16/19 short call vert on; otherwise, I'd go there ... .
Filled for .75 at open. Entering a GTC order to cover at 50% max.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #560
  • Jan 17, 2017 1:52pm Jan 17, 2017 1:52pm
Opening: NFLX Jan 27th 111/116/150/155 iron condor for a 1.21 credit. POP%: 69%; Max Profit: $121/contract; Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $379. (High IVR/High IV; Earnings; Volatility Contraction Play).

Notes: This actually announces earnings tomorrow after market close; putting it on a touch early here ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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