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  • #561
  • Jan 17, 2017 4:29pm Jan 17, 2017 4:29pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Opening: VIX April 17th 17/20 short call vert ("Term Structure" trade). Looking for a .75 credit fill. I already have a March 16/19 short call vert on; otherwise, I'd go there ... .
Basically, lost patience waiting for this TastyWorks invite email, so "carrying on," since I'm not getting any younger here ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #562
  • Jan 17, 2017 4:32pm Jan 17, 2017 4:32pm
In spite of the small pop today, little change in the brutality of the VIX contango landscape:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1:17 Contango.jpg Size: 72 KB
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #563
  • Jan 17, 2017 4:41pm Jan 17, 2017 4:41pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
In spite of the small pop today, little change in the brutality of the VIX contango landscape: 1:17 Contango.jpg;2144329
you could grow old waiting for the tide to turn.

re: NFLX, I have on some super cheap skinny put flys for 1/20, some around $110 and some around $100....whew..... I throw some crazy shit out there sometimes.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #564
  • Jan 17, 2017 6:57pm Jan 17, 2017 6:57pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}you could grow old waiting for the tide to turn. re: NFLX, I have on some super cheap skinny put flys for 1/20, some around $110 and some around $100....whew..... I throw some crazy shit out there sometimes.
I consider myself a patient guy, but it wears thin at times, which is probably why I'm working a few of these "Term Structure" trades in VIX "from below" as opposed to waiting for the >20 pop (which could come tomorrow, Friday, next month ... ) to short ... . Beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick ... .

Doin' my mechanical, delta neutral thing with NFLX earnings ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #565
  • Jan 18, 2017 11:19am Jan 18, 2017 11:19am
Covering: FXE Jan 27th 101 short put for a .05 db and Rolling: Jan 27th 101/105 short call vert to Feb 17th 101/107 short call vert for a .19 credit. The long put of this iron fly (at the 97), is currently "no bid," so I'll just let that expire worthless unless the market rapidly unwinds Trump's "dollar too strong" jawboning running into expiry.

I can't get much to re-establish the short put side of this fly at the moment (<.25), so I'm just going to work the short call side for now, since I'm basically bearish on FXE anyways in an environment of Fed tightening going forward.

The scratch point looks to be about what I put on the fly for originally (2.25 cr), so I'll look to pull it off somewhere around that point.

Ordinarily, I figure it's best to get out of broken trades at scratch and then move on to higher probability setups ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #566
  • Jan 18, 2017 11:23am Jan 18, 2017 11:23am
VIX spot is significantly higher here, but this doesn't necessarily translate into back month futures strength: VIX at 12.52, up .65; /VXG7 (Feb), up .02; /VXH7, down .16; /VXJ7 (March), down .23; /VXK7 (April), down .19 ... .

This phenom can translate a touch into your back month VIX options setups. My March, April short call credit spreads are slightly in the green here in spite of spot movement ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #567
  • Edited 9:36pm Jan 18, 2017 12:13pm | Edited 9:36pm
For some reason, the media has a hard on for what Trump's going to say during his coronation address ... .

I mean, what isn't already priced in?:

1) Infrastructure;
2) ACA (Obamacare) repeal;
3) Renegotiation of "bad" trade deals;
4) Bitch slapping currency manipulators;
5) Tax reform/lowering;
6) Opening his pie hole about Greenback strength;
7) Commenting on big pharma's getting away "with murder";
8) Deregulating, basically, "everything that's pesky."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #568
  • Edited 3:24pm Jan 18, 2017 2:38pm | Edited 3:24pm
Trying to fill UVXY Jan '18 put fly, $12/10/8....for 3c.....not filling on the 2c mid lol....where is my free money?


.....sometimes they fill
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #569
  • Jan 18, 2017 4:24pm Jan 18, 2017 4:24pm
Quoting The Fool
Trying to fill UVXY Jan '18 put fly, $12/10/8....for 3c.....not filling on the 2c mid lol....where is my free money? .....sometimes they fill
I got distracted by some shiny objects and haven't done shit with UVXY ... . Figured I'd wait until they crowned the Donald ... . Maybe see a little friskiness around his ascension to the throne ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #570
  • Jan 18, 2017 6:03pm Jan 18, 2017 6:03pm
screwy thing is, if vol pops and UVXY moves north, the fotm puts might be further otm AND more expensive....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #571
  • Jan 18, 2017 9:35pm Jan 18, 2017 9:35pm
Quoting The Fool
screwy thing is, if vol pops and UVXY moves north, the fotm puts might be further otm AND more expensive....
True. I always have to remind myself to "think upside down" when it comes to vol expansion in VIX, VXX, UVXY ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #572
  • Jan 19, 2017 9:57am Jan 19, 2017 9:57am
Covering: NFLX Jan 27th 111/116/150/155 iron condor for a .50 db at open. In for 1.21, out for .50, .71 ($71) gross profit per contract.

Love the inzee outzees when I can get them ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #573
  • Edited 9:23pm Jan 19, 2017 10:15am | Edited 9:23pm
To me, too wide:

Attached Image


The Market Measures research on these: In a nutshell, sell the 45 DTE 50 delta call, buy the 10 delta long. Here, he's getting a fairly nice credit, but at a ginormous buying power effect cost (~$850/contract). And right before what the media is painting as some sort of binary event: Trump's inauguration .... .

Pass ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #574
  • Jan 19, 2017 12:45pm Jan 19, 2017 12:45pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
And, right before what the media is painting as some sort of binary event: Trump's inauguration ....
I don't get that, really.....although GS did say "buy the Election, sell the Inauguration" ... but I would expect any selloff to come later, as reality sets in....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #575
  • Jan 19, 2017 8:26pm Jan 19, 2017 8:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I don't get that, really.....although GS did say "buy the Election, sell the Inauguration" ... but I would expect any selloff to come later, as reality sets in....
It's a head scratcher.

It's not like he's going to wave a magic Oval Office wand or anything after he's sworn in tomorrow transforming the country into an illegal immigrant free, good middle class job, uber modern infrastructure, low tax rate kingdom at 12:01 EST ... .

My best guess is that the market's more worried about the "opening of the old pie hole" and what "new" things may spill out. At this point, kinda hard to imagine what those would be ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #576
  • Jan 19, 2017 8:35pm Jan 19, 2017 8:35pm
Trade Idea: GDXJ Feb 17th 30/36/37/45 iron condor for a 3.38 cr; buying power effect: 4.62; BE's at 32.62/40.38. (High IVR/High IV).

May slap this on tomorrow. This is kind of against my better judgment, since I expect some flight to gold in advance of the coronation, but this is one of the only non-earnings high IVR/high IV plays out there ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #577
  • Jan 19, 2017 9:03pm Jan 19, 2017 9:03pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
It's not like he's going to wave a magic Oval Office wand or anything
....didn't matter what was said or promised on the campaign trail, when the crowds are gone he'll have to deal with the reality of how hard it is to get things done through government, even if you've got control of all the levers. Trump said he'll spend a $Trillion on infrastructure....oh but that will be mostly public/private partnership deals. Those don't get worked out overnight. ACA will be repealed and replaced with something terrific and everyone will have insurance with lower deductibles. OK. Will be fun to watch Paul Ryan explain what Trump really meant there. Meanwhile any day a new tweet that could blow up the markets. I think there will be lots of volatility coming down the pike but it won't necessarily magically appear when the Obama moving van is seen pulling away. Oh wait that was today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #578
  • Jan 19, 2017 9:22pm Jan 19, 2017 9:22pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....didn't matter what was said or promised on the campaign trail, when the crowds are gone he'll have to deal with the reality of how hard it is to get things done through government, even if you've got control of all the levers. Trump said he'll spend a $Trillion on infrastructure....oh but that will be mostly public/private partnership deals. Those don't get worked out overnight. ACA will be repealed and replaced with something terrific and everyone will have insurance with lower deductibles. OK. Will be fun to watch Paul Ryan explain...
As always, a disconnect between reality and the market ... .

All's I know is ... . I could use some volatility here ... . Somewhere ... . Anywhere. Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #579
  • Jan 19, 2017 9:22pm Jan 19, 2017 9:22pm
just in case though I will throw some change at some long vol spreads
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-01-19_1921uvxy.png Size: 69 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #580
  • Jan 20, 2017 10:53am Jan 20, 2017 10:53am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Trade Idea: GDXJ Feb 17th 30/36/37/45 iron condor for a 3.38 cr; buying power effect: 4.62; BE's at 32.62/40.38. (High IVR/High IV). May slap this on tomorrow. This is kind of against my better judgment, since I expect some flight to gold in advance of the coronation, but this is one of the only non-earnings high IVR/high IV plays out there ... .
Filled for a 3.38 credit.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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