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  • #581
  • Jan 20, 2017 3:13pm Jan 20, 2017 3:13pm
VIX, VXX, UVXY short may be a crowded trade, but VIX going full on complacency, losing 1.20+ to sub-12 into the close.

Guess sometimes the crowds are right, temporarily or otherwise ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #582
  • Jan 20, 2017 4:17pm Jan 20, 2017 4:17pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
VIX, VXX, UVXY short may be a crowded trade, but VIX going full on complacency, losing 1.20+ to sub-12 into the close. Guess sometimes the crowds are right, temporarily or otherwise ... .
We'll see how that plays out post-opex ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #583
  • Jan 21, 2017 1:21pm Jan 21, 2017 1:21pm
Trade Idea: SPY April 21st 20/212/235/238 iron condor: $92 max profit/contract; $208/contract buying power effect; BE's at 211.08/235.92. (Core position).

Here, I'm going out to April (90 DTE), because I can't get squat closer in time. This isn't quite what I like to see in a three-wide (1/3rd the width of the wings in credit), but it'll have to do ... .

Was frankly looking to flatten here to switch over to TastyWorks, but they continue to be on an "invite only" basis, I haven't received an invite email yet, and am only getting older/grayer here ... . It'll happen when it happens.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #584
  • Jan 21, 2017 2:49pm Jan 21, 2017 2:49pm
VIX, VXX, UVXY being "overdue for a pop" is about as actionable a trade as SPY being "overdue for a correction."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #585
  • Jan 22, 2017 7:08pm Jan 22, 2017 7:08pm
The Week Ahead: VIX, SPY and Friends, Earnings: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VI...AKE-THE-STAGE/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #586
  • Jan 23, 2017 7:13pm Jan 23, 2017 7:13pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Trade Idea: SPY April 21st 20/212/235/238 iron condor: $92 max profit/contract; $208/contract buying power effect; BE's at 211.08/235.92. (Core position). Here, I'm going out to April (90 DTE), because I can't get squat closer in time. This isn't quite what I like to see in a three-wide (1/3rd the width of the wings in credit), but it'll have to do ... . Was frankly looking to flatten here to switch over to TastyWorks, but they continue to be on an "invite only" basis, I haven't received an invite email yet, and am only getting older/grayer here...
Didn't get filled today and didn't have time to adjust setup, chase price. Will try again tomorrow.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #587
  • Jan 23, 2017 7:17pm Jan 23, 2017 7:17pm
Covering: SPY March 17th 205/208/234/237 iron condor for a .48 db. I opened this about a month ago for a .94 credit, so closing her results in a gross profit of .46 ($46)/contract ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #588
  • Jan 24, 2017 2:53am Jan 24, 2017 2:53am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Covering: SPY March 17th 205/208/234/237 iron condor for a .48 db. I opened this about a month ago for a .94 credit, so closing her results in a gross profit of .46 ($46)/contract ... .
flatline markets kind to your IC's, I am gonna have to get back to those
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #589
  • Jan 24, 2017 10:49am Jan 24, 2017 10:49am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}flatline markets kind to your IC's, I am gonna have to get back to those
Per contract net delta for the setup barely moved off -5 for the entire life of the setup ... . I don't generally like going out this far in time, but whaddya do ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #590
  • Jan 24, 2017 10:53am Jan 24, 2017 10:53am
Rolling: GDXJ Feb 17th 36 short put to 37 for a .35 credit. This leg is part of an iron condor, which is now fully "flied": Feb 17th 30/37/37/45. With 24 DTE, I probably could have left it alone, but the dollar's looking kind of weak here, and I don't like to fiddle generally w/<25DTE, since you won't get much to roll in after that point, so it's now or never.

Opening: SPY April 21st 211/214/234/237 iron condor for a 1.01 credit. If I'd been a touch more patient and had had my coffee, I probs could have gotten filled for 1.05 or so ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #591
  • Jan 24, 2017 11:01am Jan 24, 2017 11:01am
Those VIX "Term Structure" trades I have been doing seem (at least temporarily) to be the "gift that keeps on giving."

That being said, I don't want to get cocky here and slap on a bunch.

With the March futures contract trading at 14.64, and the April at 15.85, I'm just hand sitting here because I (a) don't like to go >90 days out; (b) don't like to setup the short call at <16. It looks like I could get .65 for the April 16/19, which isn't horrid, though; I generally get .65-.75 for these with the short call at the 50 delta strike, the long, 3 out from that.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #592
  • Jan 24, 2017 3:20pm Jan 24, 2017 3:20pm
Sure enough, with VIX spot so low/VIX futures values so "shallow", imprudent to dabble with a "Term Structure" trade here:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1:24 Term Structure.jpg Size: 157 KB


The first month in which I would consider a short call vert with the short call strike at the 16 would be May ... . Too far out in time for my tastes. So, hand-sitting. (Eyeballing). I only need like a $2 pop in spot to consider something closer in time ... . Not asking for much, frankly ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #593
  • Jan 24, 2017 6:01pm Jan 24, 2017 6:01pm
I got my tworks invitation! OMG I don't know what to wear! Will have to sell some cans and maybe get an account going - do you know the min balance required?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #594
  • Jan 24, 2017 7:39pm Jan 24, 2017 7:39pm
Quoting The Fool
I got my tworks invitation! OMG I don't know what to wear! Will have to sell some cans and maybe get an account going - do you know the min balance required?
I think it's $2500 for margin, but don't quote me on that ... .

Still winding up TDA positions, so have yet to open, fund, piddle ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #595
  • Jan 25, 2017 8:25pm Jan 25, 2017 8:25pm
Ohhhh, that VIX ... .

2016 lows and a fairly long-term low as well.

VIX futures contango settled at 11.39% (ouch for VXX, UVXY longs waiting incessantly for a pop).

VIX "spot" can't go much lower here, but the Feb expiry /VX future can (finished the day at 12.70).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #596
  • Jan 25, 2017 8:47pm Jan 25, 2017 8:47pm
I simply do not understand the capital inflows to UVXY, VXX, presumably as longs, short-term or otherwise ... .

VIX Futures Contango Percentages Since the Beginning of the Year:

Jan 3rd: 13.07%
Jan 4th: 13.66%
Jan 5th: 13.82%
Jan 6th: 13.98%
Jan 9th: 12.38%
Jan 10th: 12.43%

Well, you get the picture (Hint: Contango is ravaging UVXY, VXX longs here). If you don't, here's UVXY's data set:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UVXY Weekly.jpg Size: 111 KB


What about this chart and the numerous splits the instrument has undergone since inception says "long" to you?
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #597
  • Jan 25, 2017 8:56pm Jan 25, 2017 8:56pm
Put another way, this is how much people lost in VXX/UVXY between 2012 and 2016, my guess is primarily due to contango erosion:

Attached Image
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #598
  • Jan 26, 2017 2:45pm Jan 26, 2017 2:45pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I simply do not understand the capital inflows to UVXY, VXX, presumably as longs, short-term or otherwise ... .
it's a cash cow (for the fund owners)--- and for the well-heeled hedgies who get to short it (it = VXX, UVXY, etc). I don't mind throwing some change at call spreads but these days also I am throwing money at put spreads, long puts, etc....long vol still a total unicorn hunt....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #599
  • Jan 26, 2017 6:48pm Jan 26, 2017 6:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}it's a cash cow (for the fund owners)--- and for the well-heeled hedgies who get to short it (it = VXX, UVXY, etc). I don't mind throwing some change at call spreads but these days also I am throwing money at put spreads, long puts, etc....long vol still a total unicorn hunt....
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #600
  • Jan 26, 2017 7:28pm Jan 26, 2017 7:28pm
With VIX now sub-11, it's another "move along, nothing to see here" day ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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