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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #446,741
  • Dec 20, 2016 8:14am Dec 20, 2016 8:14am
Hmm.. I don't see any bullish from W1, D1, H4, H1 chart.
There is probability support @1.2230, so I set TP @1.2250
Don't trust me. I'm still newbie
  • #446,742
  • Dec 20, 2016 8:15am Dec 20, 2016 8:15am
Quoting niubee
Hmm.. I don't see any bullish from W1, D1, H4, H1 chart. There is probability support @1.2230, so I set TP @1.2250

My TP is 1.22500, too.
  • #446,743
  • Dec 20, 2016 8:38am Dec 20, 2016 8:38am
Quoting Derivative92
{quote} My TP is 1.22500, too.
Hope we can get there

My reason is like below chart (sorry really mess )
I use D1 chart.

1. Below middle BB
2. Below 100 SMA
3. Below trend line
4. Below SAR
5. Below Kijun and Tenkan, Chikou span cross from top through the price
6. Below 38.2 fibo
7. MACD < 0
8. RSI < 50
9. Stochastic < 50

23.6 fibo is 1.2230, so I take 1.2250 for safe

Just a newbie analysis
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't trust me. I'm still newbie
  • #446,744
  • Dec 20, 2016 9:12am Dec 20, 2016 9:12am
before the trend no prediction can work.... seems like GBPUSD getting stronger in down ternd....

Daily Technical Analysis - Investopedia

Attached Image
It is the dust where you came from & it is the dust where you shall return
  • #446,745
  • Dec 20, 2016 9:18am Dec 20, 2016 9:18am
Quoting niubee
{quote} Hope we can get there My reason is like below chart (sorry really mess ) I use D1 chart. 1. Below middle BB 2. Below 100 SMA 3. Below trend line 4. Below SAR 5. Below Kijun and Tenkan, Chikou span cross from top through the price 6. Below 38.2 fibo 7. MACD < 0 8. RSI < 50 9. Stochastic < 50 23.6 fibo is 1.2230, so I take 1.2250 for safe Just a newbie analysis {image}
Lots of confluence there for you!!

I've just lowered my TP down to 1.22 as we're on strong support now and when this snaps there should be some momentum so I will keep an eye on it and close manually if need be, but I don't want to miss out on a free fall!
  • #446,746
  • Dec 20, 2016 9:22am Dec 20, 2016 9:22am
Quoting Derivative92
{quote} Lots of confluence there for you!! I've just lowered my TP down to 1.22 as we're on strong support now and when this snaps there should be some momentum so I will keep an eye on it and close manually if need be, but I don't want to miss out on a free fall!
Yeah, I see price @1.2186, 1.22 will be safe.
It's been trying to break 1.2315... 4 times (seen on H1 chart).
When it breaks, probably free fall
Don't trust me. I'm still newbie
  • #446,747
  • Dec 20, 2016 9:31am Dec 20, 2016 9:31am
Quoting niubee
{quote} Yeah, I see price @1.2186, 1.22 will be safe. It's been trying to break 1.2315... 4 times (seen on H1 chart). When it breaks, probably free fall
Christmas might well come 5 days earlier!

Expecting to go long and stay long for sometime when it bottoms around 1.22 area.
  • #446,748
  • Dec 20, 2016 10:09am Dec 20, 2016 10:09am
Quoting Derivative92
{quote} Christmas might well come 5 days earlier! Expecting to go long and stay long for sometime when it bottoms around 1.22 area.
Why should it bottom at 1.22 area?
  • #446,749
  • Dec 20, 2016 11:06am Dec 20, 2016 11:06am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Why should it bottom at 1.22 area?
I trade cycles similar to Elliott Wave but a-la-Steve Maruo.

If I'm correct, we're in a larger wave 1, wave one typically retraces beyond the 61% Fibo. So according to what I've been taught, I'm looking for a bullish reversal around the 1.22 level as we're now in the 3rd push down on the daily cycle.
  • #446,750
  • Dec 20, 2016 11:09am Dec 20, 2016 11:09am
what's the best price to get out of the buy ?

i'm long from 1.2350 and 1.2400 , target 1.2400 before shorting.
your thoughts ?
"Letting losses run is the most serious mistake made by most investors."W.O
  • #446,751
  • Dec 20, 2016 12:02pm Dec 20, 2016 12:02pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Why should it bottom at 1.22 area?
Hope that helps you understand my logic!
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  • #446,752
  • Dec 20, 2016 12:06pm Dec 20, 2016 12:06pm
Quoting Derivative92
{quote} Hope that helps you understand my logic! {image}
Apologies, I meant US elections, not High Court/Supreme Court referral
  • #446,753
  • Dec 20, 2016 12:10pm Dec 20, 2016 12:10pm
Quoting Derivative92
{quote} Apologies, I meant US elections, not High Court/Supreme Court referral
That's being a gentleman; apologies taken. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #446,754
  • Dec 20, 2016 2:36pm Dec 20, 2016 2:36pm
Bounced pretty nicely from november low, but still shorts more in favour.
Control the risk
  • #446,755
  • Dec 20, 2016 3:05pm Dec 20, 2016 3:05pm
Quoting Derivative92
{quote} I trade cycles similar to Elliott Wave but a-la-Steve Maruo. If I'm correct, we're in a larger wave 1, wave one typically retraces beyond the 61% Fibo. So according to what I've been taught, I'm looking for a bullish reversal around the 1.22 level as we're now in the 3rd push down on the daily cycle.
Thank you very much for putting in all that effort to explain my question. Unfortunately it was 3am for me so I had to go to bed hence the delayed thanks.

As you may well know I am not a pattern trader or wave theory trader, I simply ask where is the money and where is it now going. The chart tells us this information and I can provide as many examples as you like.

At the time of writing last night, price was just bouncing off the resistance here making it a new support. This is a 30 min chart but one has to look at several to find the swings because they can happen on any time frame but the signs are the same or similar.

You put in the time to answer I am responding likewise.
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  • #446,756
  • Dec 20, 2016 3:48pm Dec 20, 2016 3:48pm
Then if we follow the same logic we get the retracement...
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  • #446,757
  • Dec 20, 2016 4:05pm Dec 20, 2016 4:05pm
Here on the one hour chart we see exactly the same thing happening and this is 8 days worth of trades.

I haven't put them all on because it makes the chart messy and hence difficult to read.
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  • #446,758
  • Dec 20, 2016 4:18pm Dec 20, 2016 4:18pm
Quoting Nala66
Here on the one hour chart we see exactly the same thing happening and this is 8 days worth of trades. I haven't put them all on because it makes the chart messy and hence difficult to read. {image}
Makes sense.

Still staggering to me how many hundred ways there are to skin a cat in this game!
  • #446,759
  • Dec 20, 2016 4:19pm Dec 20, 2016 4:19pm
Please:
What happened.......????
100 points Down and Up
ANCORA IMPARŅ
  • #446,760
  • Dec 20, 2016 4:24pm Dec 20, 2016 4:24pm
Notice how support and resistance share a common level.

Notice how often an Elliot 5 wave or a Goodman 3 wave happens in context with the move.

Notice how a move is cancelled by a break back inside an S & R

If we assume this is a zero um market then it is perfectly logical to assume these swings in sentiment will be of equal distance.
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