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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #446,061
  • Dec 1, 2016 9:36am Dec 1, 2016 9:36am
Quoting luck002
I just close my sell. Small pips but better than sorry. I should learn how to hold position longer like you guys.
Luck, if you got out with more money than you went in with, then it's a good day.
And sometimes holding positions longer pays off, and sometimes the quick get out is the smart play.

Speaking of holding positions, it just occurred to me that I really have no idea where I should close out all this Gbp/Usd I bought between 1.2050 and 1.2400. Here? 1.3000? 1.3500? 2.80? (just kidding on that one) I just kind of bought with the idea in mind, "Well, I think it'll go higher more than lower from here". So, I guess I just pray that it kind of continues climbing indefinitely...or at least long enough for me to pick a profit target.
I did take off some of my positions at 1.2650, with an order in to buy them back 100 pips lower, and did roughly the same with Gbp/Aud, cashing some out above 1.7100, looking to buy them back around 1.7000.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #446,062
  • Dec 1, 2016 9:45am Dec 1, 2016 9:45am
Quoting jbmaverick
{quote} Luck, if you got out with more money than you went in with, then it's a good day. And sometimes holding positions longer pays off, and sometimes the quick get out is the smart play. Speaking of holding positions, it just occurred to me that I really have no idea where I should close out all this Gbp/Usd I bought between 1.2050 and 1.2400. Here? 1.3000? 1.3500? 2.80? (just kidding on that one) I just kind of bought with the idea in mind, "Well, I think it'll go higher more than lower from here". So, I guess I just pray that it kind of continues...
Thank's jb, seems I learn a lot of stuff from this kinda thread rather than reading any market watch articles. It's impressive to see how diverse the way people trade the same pair. This thread give vibe as if I watch mentors trade and discuss trades.
  • #446,063
  • Dec 1, 2016 9:47am Dec 1, 2016 9:47am
Toronaga, Shogun is still one of the best books i have read.
  • #446,064
  • Dec 1, 2016 9:51am Dec 1, 2016 9:51am
dont trust anyone only yourself
especially Toranaga just kidding lol

Quoting luck002
{quote} Thank's jb, seems I learn a lot of stuff from this kinda thread rather than reading any market watch articles. It's impressive to see how diverse the way people trade the same pair. This thread give vibe as if I watch mentors trade and discuss trades.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #446,065
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:04am Dec 1, 2016 10:04am
Quoting luck002
{quote} Thank's jb, seems I learn a lot of stuff from this kinda thread rather than reading any market watch articles. It's impressive to see how diverse the way people trade the same pair. This thread give vibe as if I watch mentors trade and discuss trades.
Luck - Yeah, we may all be dumber than hell in here, but we'll probably still get it right more often than most professional market analysts. One of the surest ways to lose money in these markets is to listen to the "experts" that appear on financial news talk shows, or that write columns at fxstreet or dailyfx.
Seriously, you can - I know I do - learn a lot just by listening to other traders discuss things. Lots of times someone in here will point out an angle on the market that I hadn't considered. It helps to have more than one set of eyes to look at things through. For example, you might be thinking a market looks poised to sail right on up based on how it looks in regard to moving averages on the 15-minute or hourly chart...until someone points out that it's about to hit a wall of major pivot, Fibonacci points, and daily-chart resistance levels.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #446,066
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:13am Dec 1, 2016 10:13am
If this continues to drop it will be some massive pump and dump again. This is happening more and more often i wonder who has so much resources to afford an action like this.
  • #446,067
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:19am Dec 1, 2016 10:19am
Okay, bought back the partial Gbp/Usd positions that I closed out at 1.2650 at 1.2575, and the Gbp/Auds I dumped at 1.7110 at 1.7000 - if nothing else, I'm effectively long in those positions from a lower level than my original buy-in point. A good chance I could've gotten the Gbp/Auds back 50 pips or more lower, but why be greedy?
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #446,068
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:21am Dec 1, 2016 10:21am
Quoting Bones
dont trust anyone only yourself especially Toranaga just kidding lol {quote}
THERE's some good advice. Good Lord, don't follow me, that's for sure. I once told a fellow trader he could probably be a millionaire by lunchtime if he just faded all my trades.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #446,069
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:34am Dec 1, 2016 10:34am
If someone's looking to buy in, might consider the 10 EMA on the hourly, which I see just above 1.2540 - plus, if they pushed it below 1.2550, there'd be those breathless moments for bulls wondering if they were going to reverse the whole thing (I seriously doubt it - my bet at this point is on a close between 1.2620-1.2650). Even gold and silver and the badly mangled Aud/Usd are starting to move up against the dollar now, and Eur/Usd is pushing the highs of the day, so I see the current Gbp/Usd action as purely a normal - and temporary - retrace.
Hey, maybe look for a pin bar on the 5-minute chart, pull the trigger, and hope for the best.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #446,070
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:46am Dec 1, 2016 10:46am
This is the moment I wonder why the hell I did not trust the finger wanting to short a bit when I scaled my longs up there. GRrrrr.
Oh well. This is what we have in trading.

The whole path is not certainly an uptrend so would not exclude to see 1.24 area to be revisited during december.
From 1.27 we came down to 1.23 but the battle came around 1.25

Exact range is 1-2450 - 1.2550 so the mid point of course the (in)famous 1.25
Nothing new atm -> the area will certainly be tested and since market moves in supply - demand imbalances, if this time the area will show more demand, will be proven as support, if not, another failure and down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #446,071
  • Edited Dec 2, 2016 9:11am Dec 1, 2016 10:54am | Edited Dec 2, 2016 9:11am
the story is pull back maybe ,then if we think break up ?
but gbp just sold off ,
that closed doji cross ,traders obviously took this is over done
cross I know as reliable more than even any other doji
my own rules mean I couldn't take that or change anything it may not confirm ,
d1-w1 trumps h4 but then bearish close this h4 id be worried maybe that just hit target
still I have my mind that bit higher ,id be more happy to sell

Cross vs Rather nice break up

Quoting _BBKing_
This is the moment I wonder why the hell I did not trust the finger wanting to short a bit when I scaled my longs up there. GRrrrr. Oh well. This is what we have in trading. The whole path is not certainly an uptrend so would not exclude to see 1.24 area to be revisited during december. From 1.27 we came down to 1.23 but the battle came around 1.25 Exact range is 1-2450 - 1.2550 so the mid point of course the (in)famous 1.25 Nothing new atm -> the area will certainly be tested and since market moves in supply - demand imbalances, if this time the...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #446,072
  • Dec 1, 2016 11:20am Dec 1, 2016 11:20am
in actual fact usdx on mine is a weekly cross ,only thing is its on support right now
a cross started and held price
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  • #446,073
  • Dec 1, 2016 11:43am Dec 1, 2016 11:43am
OK that's it.

I closed also lower entry for some 140 pips. Left 90 on the table but collected higher entry together with 30% of lower @1.2690.
Could be a mistake... the thing still can pull to the upside but it doesn't matter. Better cash out and forget.
Got enough

Considering the whole scenario, and the cost in last 2 weeks (in terms of stress and patience) I need to refresh a bit.

Will pop in later to refresh some techs
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  • #446,074
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:06pm Dec 1, 2016 12:06pm
Quoting _BBKing_
OK that's it. I closed also lower entry for some 140 pips. Left 90 on the table but collected higher entry together with 30% of lower @1.2690. Could be a mistake... the thing still can pull to the upside but it doesn't matter. Better cash out and forget. Got enough Considering the whole scenario, and the cost in last 2 weeks (in terms of stress and patience) I need to refresh a bit. Will pop in later to refresh some techs
You should simply try to think in both directions. That is the thing than anyous me here.
Here, its only up up or down down. See my detailed H1 Chart. It took me hours to elaborate this

Does it seems that something repeats ?? Hmm, maybe..

After we broke through 1.26 i gave LONG a Chance and after we reached 1.27 i gave SHORT a chance.
Second pic is my Daily pip collect. It wasnt so hard to do that today. As seen left. It pays off when you
are glued to one Chart for months. You got a feeling what can happen. Not always, but sometimes.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #446,075
  • Dec 1, 2016 1:03pm Dec 1, 2016 1:03pm
Quoting Toranaga
{quote} You should simply try to think in both directions. That is the thing than anyous me here. Here, its only up up or down down. See my detailed H1 Chart. It took me hours to elaborate this Does it seems that something repeats ?? Hmm, maybe.. After we broke through 1.26 i gave LONG a Chance and after we reached 1.27 i gave SHORT a chance. Second pic is my Daily pip collect. It wasnt so hard to do that today. As seen left. It pays off when you are glued to one Chart for months. You got a feeling what can happen. Not always, but sometimes....
Yes but I prefer having a main direction to follow and get it till the point I'm proven to be in the right side or not.

Of course, along the way I will be adding, scalping in the opposite side and so on. Just like I did today shorting near 2540 collecting some few pips before the touch down in 1.2500 where I planned to buy it back.

Also about the size: if I have not a main direction and a clear stop loss based on what I perceive about the situation, I simply am unable to open a trade with what I decided is the correct size, so ending in a too much small sized trade or in a too risky trade.

In this actual GBP situation I perceived a move upward to somewhere between 1.27 and 1.29. That's what I did !

There are tens of resistances where price could have turned down between 1.2530 and 1.2690..... probably 1 x pip. And no matter what, at any level price would decide to turn down, someone would come in saying "shorted there blah blah" ... someone else "missed short by 15 pips blah blah" ... and someone else "target missed by blah blah" ... and "hit my stop and reversed in my direction..."



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  • #446,076
  • Dec 1, 2016 1:28pm Dec 1, 2016 1:28pm
Quoting Toranaga
{quote} Does it seems that something repeats ?? Hmm, maybe..
Yes! It will go down to the point where most will think it's time to sell.
Or will reverse up before the most obvious area where most will think it's good to buy.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #446,077
  • Dec 1, 2016 1:49pm Dec 1, 2016 1:49pm
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} Yes! It will go down to the point where most will think it's time to sell. Or will reverse up before the most obvious area where most will think it's good to buy.
Not it will, it can..

What i learned in the last 7 years trading forex and wasting my limited LIFE TIME is:

When it starts being obvious then the opposite happens

Not always, but sometimes. And sometimes they ride it to the end and repeat the joke 3 or 4
times and then when you think you got it the exact opposite happens, he he he. aso aso..

I try to find some chart patterns than i know and saw so often and then simply play them.

Like the W formation or so..

Happy trading..
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  • #446,078
  • Dec 1, 2016 1:55pm Dec 1, 2016 1:55pm
cable no direction...
+
  • #446,079
  • Dec 1, 2016 2:04pm Dec 1, 2016 2:04pm
Quoting Bones
before you open a sell after 100 pip north I can help you out
Looking at the time stamp of the quote and the present chart.

After the day is almost over:


It seems it wasnt the worsest idea.



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  • #446,080
  • Dec 1, 2016 2:22pm Dec 1, 2016 2:22pm
Quoting Toranaga
{quote} Not it will, it can.. What i learned in the last 7 years trading forex and wasting my limited LIFE TIME is: When it starts being obvious then the opposite happens Not always, but sometimes

Yep I know exactly what you mean!
Just 2 weeks ago, talking to a friend about trading, I said (true words used!!):

"I find my self at a point in my learning process (some years now) that I have troubles in realizing the difference between what is obvious and what is not. I mean, some years ago was not the same, there were levels, events, patterns, and always the obvious was suspicious while now, there are so many obvious that makes me wonder they are not obviously obvious, it's just my perception that probably has improved. So sometimes, and a bit more than sometimes, I find not simple to recognize what is the "obvious" and what is my perception telling me about what the whole price structure is, ending in not believing in the trade which at my eyes looks so obvious but at someone else's eyes looks completely different"

She "Do you have any solution for this? I mean.. did you even think about a possible way to solve this crap?!"

Me "Yes I thought 2 ways: one is to reduce the average size of my trades to a level where I can truly confortably hold a "standard" drawdown (80 to 250pips), while taking the time to breath and analyze the situation without being damaged by heavy losses."

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