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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #445,941
  • Edited 1:15pm Nov 30, 2016 12:10pm | Edited 1:15pm
can we really say gbp is so bearish keep honing in on the so called fundermental experts who's predictions have been so wrong
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  • #445,942
  • Edited 1:09pm Nov 30, 2016 12:53pm | Edited 1:09pm
even eu care to be taken with nfp ,you'd have to see last week fail ,
the close is on support unless we break tonight
is it ready to break support ,if it close's below month or week could be $ is not done
or it could be $ is over brought at res focus off things like brexit and on
no US rate hike yet
much info in next months first moves
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  • #445,943
  • Nov 30, 2016 12:59pm Nov 30, 2016 12:59pm
Cable bouncing from SR and trend lines like crazy.
Lot of volatility but still no direction. Wondering if it will break this year or we need to wait more.
  • #445,944
  • Nov 30, 2016 2:24pm Nov 30, 2016 2:24pm
I was flying blind all day today, but it worked out all right. I didn't have a clue as to what caused the sudden downdraft in Gbp/Usd this morning, but I didn't even hesitate to scoop up some for a daytrade at 1.2430 - cashed out half the first time it got back up to 1.2480, and just cashed out the rest at 1.2509.
I still don't know what was going on - what, did somebody get shot?

The most impressive thing I saw today was when price had recovered back up above 1.2480, and then when there was one quick shove down to 1.2463, it bounced back up off that daily pivot like a rocket. In fact, that was the action that convinced me to hold on to the rest of my position until I got a chance to get out above 1.2500.

Also very impressive that Gbp was able to make that comeback when Eur/usd and Aud/Usd were getting slaughtered. I was kind of okay with Aud getting slaughtered since that sent my Gbp/Aud positions flying, however that joy was somewhat negated by taking a 20-pip hit when I bought Aud/Usd at 0.7420. Oh well, you can't win them all - I can live with losing 20 on one day trade and making 80 on another.

Hope the rest of you had fun - I didn't get any email notifications of new posts in here today, so that's why I didn't pop in earlier.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #445,945
  • Nov 30, 2016 2:27pm Nov 30, 2016 2:27pm
Quoting fontu
can be different than thought. presently test the previous top while the limit down for up intact or breach whats over, ranges 1.2673 -1.2267 any can be first to get the next ,but test top should be the intention . take care , fontu {image}
Fontu - I love that chart image you posted with 875,000 lines on it. Don't know what it means, but it looks really cool to me.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #445,946
  • Nov 30, 2016 2:52pm Nov 30, 2016 2:52pm
I may have mentioned this one or two or twenty-five times before, but although Friday's NFP could, of course, send this market anyplace, assuming they manage a daily close (US) over 1.2500 today, I still think it's a good bet for them to aim to fill the gap down left from 1.2597 to 1.2558 this week.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #445,947
  • Nov 30, 2016 3:42pm Nov 30, 2016 3:42pm
Quoting _BBKing_
Bought support 2440 Small size.
well done my son!
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  • #445,948
  • Nov 30, 2016 4:33pm Nov 30, 2016 4:33pm
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The whole web is printing petabytes of pages putting in front of anyone's eye basically few facts:

1. USD is strong
really... sounds to me like someone saying "the Macd is overbought in daily chart".

2. BREXIT
this word everyf*where around.

Will it be the UK the one who will pay more because of leaving the urof*zone?

Do you really understand what a currency index actually is?

Is the urof*zone really that considerable economy and government allowing to believe its f* currency deserves to be > 1 against the USD?

Market didn't want you to buy the GBP near that historycal low, that's why it disappeared from most charts. It was there a few months ago, I'm sure!
And didn't want you to buy the USD JPY that's why they moved it that f* way.
And market probably now doesn't want you to trade the EUR/USD and they will surely find a way to keep anyone away from that tasty move and blow yes or yes all those trying to catch it.
Few days ago oil started pumping up. I closed my longs near 48 and decided to stay away. Why? because there were all around rumoring about an almost done total failure in the OPEC f* agreement. They wanted just to let anyone out. That is.

Market wants you to believe in indicators, in news, statistics, in what, when, why, how to trade or not.
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  • #445,949
  • Nov 30, 2016 4:34pm Nov 30, 2016 4:34pm
Quoting MaryJane
{quote} well done my son!{image}
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  • #445,950
  • Nov 30, 2016 4:47pm Nov 30, 2016 4:47pm
Quoting MaryJane
{quote} well done my son!{image}
Well... let's put this way: atm price is going in my direction. Let's see what will come next
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  • #445,951
  • Edited 5:44pm Nov 30, 2016 4:54pm | Edited 5:44pm
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} Well... let's put this way: atm price is going in my direction. Let's see what will come next
me too has an iron in this fire.. but my entry is MUCH worse than yours..
(2475, just some 4hrs ago)

i like current daily & 4hr, the way it went into today's (and month's) close.. 1hr showing a beautiful (kinda) cup+handle (well, if it works out, lol), together with the fact we've got a new month & we closed above 1.25 today for the 1st time since many days. i guess the way is up without much hesitation (=drawdown).
Inserted Video


that's why i've made this FOMO entry ;-) my bet is the range ended today and we go UP.
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ps. sorry for being that obnoxious with 'attached images'.. i simply h8 the new smileys, refuse to use them && love the old ones :-P :-D
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  • #445,952
  • Nov 30, 2016 4:59pm Nov 30, 2016 4:59pm
"BBKing: "Will it be the UK the one who will pay more because of leaving the urof*zone?"

I seriously doubt it, and this is what I try to keep in mind and why I'm bullish on Gbp/Usd from 1.2000 up - the UK was a stronger economy than any EU economy except perhaps Germany before it joined the EU - even before the EU even existed - and that's still the case. The idea that leaving the EU is somehow going to devastate the UK economy is not based in reasonable thought. The market tanked primarily because markets hate uncertainty, and exactly how things will play out for the UK and the EU is definitely uncertain.
One might also take note of a number of economic prognosticators forecasting, well before Brexit, that the EU itself and the Euro may not be around 5-10 years from now. If Germany were to follow the UK - and that is a topic of discussion in Germany - it's easy to see the whole EU experiment rapidly failing. At that point, the UK would be hailed as the country smart enough to get out first.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #445,953
  • Nov 30, 2016 5:49pm Nov 30, 2016 5:49pm
I don't see any reason to even bring up the topic of Brexit since the GBP has been in decline since 2014 against the USD. The GBP is simply unable to hold onto any support without being battered down again by the USD. Only when the GBP finds support will it attempt to break the USD resistance levels. So are we saying the news has been all bad for the GBP for the best part of three years or could it be that the US is making a strong recovery from the so called world crisis. Strange how no matter what the news price still keeps hitting the technical levels.

I think we are are currently waiting for the GBP to find support and then we will see the resistance levels come under attack.
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  • #445,954
  • Nov 30, 2016 5:59pm Nov 30, 2016 5:59pm
Quoting Nala66
The GBP is simply unable to hold onto any support without being battered down again by the USD.
so true.. we GBP bulls are just trying to play the corrections..
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source: http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist.htm
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  • #445,955
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:07pm Nov 30, 2016 6:07pm
Quoting jbmaverick
"BBKing: "Will it be the UK the one who will pay more because of leaving the urof*zone?" I seriously doubt it, and this is what I try to keep in mind and why I'm bullish on Gbp/Usd from 1.2000 up - the UK was a stronger economy than any EU economy except perhaps Germany before it joined the EU - even before the EU even existed - and that's still the case. The idea that leaving the EU is somehow going to devastate the UK economy is not based in reasonable thought. The market tanked primarily because markets hate uncertainty, and exactly how things...
I never was and will probably never be a europe believer. It simply doesn't work. The only benefits are in the central and non-central banking system. Anything else is just becoming worse every new year.

There is only 1 way to solve the situation, but at the moment it looks sooooooooooooo far from reality that I would believe if someone will tell me we will go on mars first: having a centralized government.

This said... let's see very soon how market will react to the italian constitutional vote soon!
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  • #445,956
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:10pm Nov 30, 2016 6:10pm
Quoting MaryJane
{quote} me too has an iron in this fire.. but my entry is MUCH worse than yours.. (2475, just some 4hrs ago) i like current daily & 4hr, the way it went into today's (and month's) close.. 1hr showing a beautiful (kinda) cup+handle (well, if it works out, lol), together with the fact we've got a new month & we closed above 1.25 today for the 1st time since many days. i guess the way is up without much hesitation (=drawdown). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtKADQnjQmc that's why i've made this FOMO entry ;-) my bet is the range ended today...

yes but we do have the "Like" button!! LOL.

and yes, 1.25 daily close (luckily it was not 1.25000)
you know... numbers... means not that much.

The thing will be confirmed with a move > 1.26 then using as support and blah blah. but at that time, if happens, I will probably already cashed the position
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  • #445,957
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:16pm Nov 30, 2016 6:16pm
ok see how this puppy opens
Quoting Bones
I count 11 candles in 1,at res 8 min to close {image}
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  • #445,958
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:23pm Nov 30, 2016 6:23pm
Quoting Nala66
I don't see any reason to even bring up the topic of Brexit since the GBP has been in decline since 2014 against the USD. The GBP is simply unable to hold onto any support without being battered down again by the USD. Only when the GBP finds support will it attempt to break the USD resistance levels. So are we saying the news has been all bad for the GBP for the best part of three years or could it be that the US is making a strong recovery from the so called world crisis. Strange how no matter what the news price still keeps hitting the technical...
Good point - it's been basically a bull market for Usd and a bear market for everything else for the past few years now - although I've no idea why, with the US debt level totally above and beyond the bounds of reality.
Any event, I'd certainly love to see Gbp/Usd recover to 2014 levels - at 1.7000, I'm pretty sure that I would clear at least two dollars in profit.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #445,959
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:23pm Nov 30, 2016 6:23pm
honestly disagree w/many things :-P
myself being also an EU member, though not eurozone (czechia)..

Quoting _BBKing_
{quote}The only benefits are in the central and non-central banking system. Anything else is just becoming worse every new year.
the inability of eurozone countries (using the uro) to make up their own policy (purpotedly re/devalue their currency with the usual CB levers) is the greatest source of failure in the EU. That's why we've had Greek trouble in 1st place. That's why we've ever encountered acronyms like PIIGS.
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote}Anything else is just becoming worse every new year.
The ONLY thing i appreciate about the EU is job migration.. and that didn't change afaik.
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} There is only 1 way to solve the situation, but at the moment it looks sooooooooooooo far from reality that I would believe if someone will tell me we will go on mars first: having a centralized government.
LOL! mission impossible!
one (basic) thing among many: a centralized government needs a strong leader.. can you imagine anyone who fits the job?
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  • #445,960
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:27pm Nov 30, 2016 6:27pm
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote}The thing will be confirmed with a move > 1.26 then using as support and blah blah. but at that time, if happens, I will probably already cashed the position
At least for now, she behaves like she should ;-)
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