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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,801
  • Nov 28, 2016 4:15am Nov 28, 2016 4:15am
11:15 (edited untill 11:18)
Even if the natural target is currently the Friday GB session range low 2415, as previously written, note that D left a huge minus development (a lot of single pips). So a partial correction is very possible. Note also that we are around the main composite poc at 2428 that is attracting price. And finally note that if price will continue down to 2415, this level will possibly become the new main composite poc, because its current peak is substantially equal to the peak at 2428.
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  • #1,802
  • Nov 28, 2016 5:21am Nov 28, 2016 5:21am
Quoting Lock
11:15 (edited untill 11:18) Even if the natural target is currently the Friday GB session range low 2415, as previously written, note that D left a huge minus development (a lot of single pips). So a partial correction is very possible. Note also that we are around the main composite poc at 2428 that is attracting price. And finally note that if price will continue down to 2415, this level will possibly become the new main composite poc, because its current peak is substantially equal to the peak at 2428....

12:20 Eventually GB managed to take out the opposite side of the GB Friday range at 2415: now we could have an outside session if GB will make its new unchanged below that level. Note that the minus development upside has not been corrected at all for now. Note also that price spent more than 1 hour around the composite poc at 2428, as normal.

Obviously current GB low (G period low) is weak as it is a tag of Thursday GB session low that was also weak for its own because it is a tag of round 2400.
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  • #1,803
  • Nov 28, 2016 5:30am Nov 28, 2016 5:30am
12:30 An important note is about the spike base from last wednesday GB session at 2404: if Thursday as normal bounced there because it was the first time there today, as the second time, we could expect a possible success... Or at least we have more odds to succeed than last thursday.
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  • #1,804
  • Nov 28, 2016 6:03am Nov 28, 2016 6:03am
Quoting Lock
12:30 An important note is about the spike base from last wednesday GB session at 2404: if Thursday as normal bounced there because it was the first time there today, as the second time, we could expect a possible success... Or at least we have more odds to succeed than last thursday.
13:03 (edited untill 13:07)
So we got acceptation below it (2 m30 periods closed below it) but now we got 3 distributions for current GB session: that is generally too much. (And could suggest us that this action is very probably a liquidation and no new money selling.) The 2 minus developments separing those 3 distributions are at 241015-2418 and 24415-24855: carry this information forward even if we will have continuation downside.
Now the question is: will preUS and pit US open with a gap downside? If so we could have continuation downside event with a so elongated GB profile. Or we could have a correction at least of the last 2 separate distributions and than continue below them. Let's see anyhow.
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  • #1,805
  • Nov 28, 2016 6:58am Nov 28, 2016 6:58am
13:58 PreUS is going to open with a gap lower from Friday pit session low.
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  • #1,806
  • Nov 28, 2016 7:01am Nov 28, 2016 7:01am
14:01 If this new gap downside will be confirmed also by the opening of the upcoming pit session (15:30 +1GMT) we could have continuation downside. If not, back to the top of today GB session (25155)
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  • #1,807
  • Nov 28, 2016 7:18am Nov 28, 2016 7:18am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 13:03 (edited untill 13:07) So we got acceptation below it (2 m30 periods closed below it) but now we got 3 distributions for current GB session: that is generally too much. (And could suggest us that this action is very probably a liquidation and no new money selling.) The 2 minus developments separing those 3 distributions are at 241015-2418 and 24415-24855: carry this information forward even if we will have continuation downside. Now the question is: will preUS and pit US open with a...
14:18
First GB minus development filled. One single pip gap still in place below Friday pit session low at 24238.
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  • #1,808
  • Nov 28, 2016 7:21am Nov 28, 2016 7:21am
14:21 A lot of single pips for preUS period A plus no test below "overnight low" meaning below today GB session low. Pre US could still build a gap for upcoming pit session: let's see pit open level.
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  • #1,809
  • Nov 28, 2016 7:23am Nov 28, 2016 7:23am
Quoting Lock
11:15 (edited untill 11:18) Even if the natural target is currently the Friday GB session range low 2415, as previously written, note that D left a huge minus development (a lot of single pips). So a partial correction is very possible. Note also that we are around the main composite poc at 2428 that is attracting price. And finally note that if price will continue down to 2415, this level will possibly become the new main composite poc, because its current peak is substantially equal to the peak at 2428....
14:23 And here we are balancing around 2415.
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  • #1,810
  • Nov 28, 2016 8:20am Nov 28, 2016 8:20am
14:20+GMT
10 minutes to go and we still are below Friday pit session low: a gap downside is possible. Note anyhow preUS B period high exactly at Friday preUS open price 2434: weak hands ruling for now.
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  • #1,811
  • Nov 28, 2016 8:23am Nov 28, 2016 8:23am
15:23
Note that current price location is below all the weak references left by Thursday and Friday pit sessions (and also Wednesday session E priod low tagging Tuesday pit session open price 24187). If eventually price will open around here all those who placed their stops below those weak references will find themselves under the water. Imagine their possible reaction in this case: they could be forced to liquidate. At the same time inventories built after Friday pit session close (unchanged at 24855) are currently net short: so a correction of them is also possible.
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  • #1,812
  • Nov 28, 2016 10:37am Nov 28, 2016 10:37am
17:37
For now we only got balance around the main composite poc at 2415. Very weak market as always in the last weeks. D period low at open 24095 as preUS B period high at Friday preUS open 2434. Only exact references and weak hands involved. Also note price up and down open (24095) multiple times: a clear sign of indecision. Furthermore the proximity of the main composite poc is an obstacle to any meaningfull movement away from it.
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  • #1,813
  • Nov 28, 2016 10:57am Nov 28, 2016 10:57am
17:57 current period E is technically pretty important as it is the last for London: as you may see it's up and down Friday GB session low. A close below it will create an "autside session" a session who tested above previous one and then closed below the opposite side of it. But in any case for now I only saw liquidation made by GB session followed by a prolongated period of balance at the base of the liquidation. Note in fact the perfect "b" shape of the composite profilie GB+preUS+pitUS. I generally do not give too much importance to technical definitions such as "outside days" or similar. To me the most important thing is trying to understand the behaviour of my competitors in a particular given market.
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  • #1,814
  • Edited 1:43am Nov 29, 2016 1:18am | Edited 1:43am
16/11/29 TUESDAY 08:18 +1GMT (edited untill 08:43)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday we got a GB outside session meaning it tested above GB Friday inside balance session, failed and closed below the opposite side of it during pit session. (pit session period E close is the close of London). Now even though technicians tend to give particular relevance to such a move I prefer to consider it under the perspective of market behaviour. I mean that such a move is significant depending upon who made it and how. My opinion is that it was mainly liquidation, meaning old business and not new money selling.

Now a market move could also start as a liquidation and then morph into something major: let's see today if this was the case. For instance we could have a gap downside: if this gap will be preserved then we could think that something important downside is really occurring.

For now all overnight session balanced below the major composite poc at 2417: note that both the Sydney poor high and the Tokyo high are at that level.

Because of the strict balance started yesterday during preUS session and continued untill now with yesterday pit session and tonight Sydney and Tokyo I'm expecting a directional movement away from current very mature pole of attraction. A possible direction could be downside in order to remove the Sydney poor low at 2296 (back to the lower major composite poc just below it: directional moves often tend to go from major composite poc to major composite poc)

An other possibility could be a full retracement of the yesterday GB session in order to correct yesterday GB poor high at 25155 and eventually up to the old preUS poor high at 2555 (note that right below it we got the TRIPLE PASS GB GAP 25413-2553 that is the reason for all this action downside from 11.11 GB session).

Finally current Tokyo low is poor and is also weak as it is tagging yesterday pit session low at 23863.

Note that the most inportant thing to evaluate today and the next days is the possible failure above the last inside week high 25122: for now we have an attempted break above it made by Tokyo and rejected by both Tokyo and GB. Note that if this failure was real the natural target is the opposite side of the last week balance, meaning 23117.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,815
  • Nov 29, 2016 2:34am Nov 29, 2016 2:34am
Quoting Lock
16/11/29 TUESDAY 08:18 +1GMT (edited untill 08:43) EARLY MORNING REPORT .... For now all overnight session balanced below the major composite poc at 2417: note that both the Sydney poor high and the Tokyo high are at that level. .... {image}
09:33+1GMT
GB opened inside yesterday GB range (expecting initial acceptation of it and eventually tests of its limits up and/or down): note that price immediately went up at main composite POC in order to test above Tokyo/Sydney cluster high. ANd there established a new poor high: now we got two back to back GB session poor high. Current poor high and yesterday poor high.
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  • #1,816
  • Nov 29, 2016 2:58am Nov 29, 2016 2:58am
09:58
Watch out it the test above failes, because below we got the Tokyo poor low tagging yesterday pit session low and current A period low at round 2400.

10:33
24416 Is yesterday GB rally high test: so it is the main reference here to evaluate if we could have continuation above or not. And note that is right below the second old weekly balance high at 24437 a very important weekly reference.

10:57
Current D period is trying to fill the yesterday GB minus development up to 24855. Note anyhow that we have now a lot of single pips.
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  • #1,817
  • Nov 29, 2016 6:57am Nov 29, 2016 6:57am
Quoting Lock
10:57 Current D period is trying to fill the yesterday GB minus development up to 24855. Note anyhow that we have now a lot of single pips.
13:57+1GMT
After a 50% retracement of D period (too many single pips left by it as written), G period eventually managed to fill the yesterday minus development up to 24855. PreUS is now going to open with a substantial gap higher from yesterday pit session range high 24327.
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  • #1,818
  • Nov 29, 2016 7:13am Nov 29, 2016 7:13am
14:13+1GMT (edited untill 14:18)
EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT

Two options here for upcoming pit session: preserv current gap untill pit open (15:30+1GMT) and try to attempt above last weekly balance high at 25122 (the first attempt for a pit session). Fill current gap upside in order to let pit session open inside yesterday or even below yesterday pit range (below 23863) with a further gap downside: in this case we could imagine a more probable real failure above weekly balance and eventually a directional move downside. But let's see I do not want to anticipate market generated information too much.

Above we still have the yesterday GB session poor high 25155 and far above the old preUS session poor high 2555.
Below we got today Tokyo session poor low tagging yesterday pit session low around 23874. But before it we got today GB session minus development left by D period at 2434-2452.
Then if the direction will be downside we also have the far below Sydney poor low at 2296.
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  • #1,819
  • Nov 29, 2016 7:23am Nov 29, 2016 7:23am
Note that in USDX the "all time high" has not been established by a pit session: a pit session above it is expected before or after.
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  • #1,820
  • Nov 29, 2016 7:25am Nov 29, 2016 7:25am
Note also that 24873 is the half back of the last daily bracket.
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