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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,781
  • Nov 25, 2016 3:55am Nov 25, 2016 3:55am
10:55

Quoting Lock
08:59 +1GMT Tokyo liquidated itself during the last 2 periods. Let's see where GB will open. For now we are inside yesterday range 2401-24945. Note that the very weak high from yesterday has not been tested yet.
Quoting Lock
09:16+1GMT GB opened inside yesterday range and went down below Tokyo low just to tag the major composite poc at 2415 that is also yesterday GB open price: don't be fooled by price action. For now we have seen liquidation of overnight activity and current market is ruled by weak hands.
Note the complete cover of the liquidation made by the last 2 periods of Tokyo session. How many people do you think considered those last periods as liquidation and consequently were aware of the risk involved in following that move downside? And how many peaple did know that the real opportunity could be to go against that weak move?
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  • #1,782
  • Nov 25, 2016 4:03am Nov 25, 2016 4:03am
11:03 Now we got 3 distributions*, that is too much probably. Remember that we are in a continuous two ways auction process. At the same time current high is clearly weak as it is a tag of Tokyo session high (24728). Plus we still have the very weak high (24945) made by yesterday GB session tagging a previous GB session poor high.

*ABC distribution, CD distribution and DE distribution. All of them separed by clean spaces between them.
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  • #1,783
  • Nov 25, 2016 4:13am Nov 25, 2016 4:13am
11:13+1GMT

Quoting Lock
11:03 Now we got 3 distributions*, that is too much probably. Remember that we are in a continuous two ways auction process. At the same time current high is clearly weak as it is a tag of Tokyo session high (24728). Plus we still have the very weak high (24945) made by yesterday GB session tagging a previous GB session poor high. *ABC distribution, CD distribution and DE distribution. All of them separed by clean spaces between them.
Note the third distribution DE now "linked" to the second one CD. So now we got 2 distribution for GB session: that is more normal. Inventories were clearly too long as a result of the short covering of the liquidation made by Tokyo.

You must remember that for now we have seen liquidation made by Tokyo session in its last 2 period and short covering made by GB session. Current GB action left downside weak levels meaning that this action is not supported, for now, by strong participants: because strong hands do not use such references to entry a market.

11:27 I'll be off for a while. Best L.
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  • #1,784
  • Nov 25, 2016 5:41am Nov 25, 2016 5:41am
14:41 Value overlapping to higher from yesterday GB value. FGH cluster of lows at round 2450. Still extrordinary weak GB high.

12:42 Note also that 24485 is yesterday GB close.
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  • #1,785
  • Nov 25, 2016 5:50am Nov 25, 2016 5:50am
Quoting Lock
11:13+1GMT ... You must remember that for now we have seen liquidation made by Tokyo session in its last 2 period and short covering made by GB session. Current GB action left downside weak levels meaning that this action is not supported, for now, by strong participants: because strong hands do not use such references to entry a market. 11:27 I'll be off for a while. Best L.
12:50 Note the perfect "P" shape of current GB profile: a confirmation of the fact that for now we only saw short covering activity.
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  • #1,786
  • Nov 25, 2016 5:55am Nov 25, 2016 5:55am
12:55+1GMT
Now, because GB session is coming to an end in the next 2 periods, an important note should be done regarding yesterday pit session profile: it was done during bank holiday, meaning in a condition where weak participants controlled the market. So the poor low (24415) left by pit action has not the same relevance of a similar weak reference in a more stronger environment. Anyhow it's a poor low and it could lead to a correction during next pit session, unless a gap upside could allow a temporary skip of it.(meaning pit session open above yesterday pit session high at 24825.

If instead next GB action and following preUS action will build a gap downside, meaning below yesterday pit session poor low at 24415, we could have exactly the opposite situation: in this case the weak references left by GB (yesterday weak high and today poor high) could be temporary skipped.
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  • #1,787
  • Nov 25, 2016 7:12am Nov 25, 2016 7:12am
2016/11/25 FRIDAY 14:12 +1GMT (edited untill 14:19)
EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT

Today we saw a liquidation by last 2 period of Tokyo session, followed by a short covering made by GB initial action and eventually a new liquidation made by the second portion of the GB session with a final spike downside by last 2 GB periods ("I" and "J")

PreUS opened below yesterday pit session range (24415-24825) but inside yesterday preUS range (2429-2465) and immediately tagged its low at 2429 that is now weak. We are in a full balance environment totally ruled by weak hands using only exact/weak references to trade: so you can do 2 things here: wait untill slightly bigger timeframes will step in (doing nothing inthe meanwhile) or follow weak action using the levels weak hands are currently using (being aware of the risk involved in this flanking action).

GB high left at 2472 is extremely weak and is followed by the yesterday weak GB high at 24945. Yesterday pit session poor low at 24415 has to be solved in same way now: with a gap downside or upside for upcoming pit session or with a passage below it by pit action if pit open will be inside yesterday pit range.
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  • #1,788
  • Nov 25, 2016 8:22am Nov 25, 2016 8:22am
15:22 Note current price position exactly around yesterday pit session poor low and the weekly balance high...

Also AB poor low and C low at open..
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  • #1,789
  • Nov 25, 2016 8:27am Nov 25, 2016 8:27am
2 minutes to go for pit session and we are below yesterday pit low (gap downside): everything is possible in such condition.
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  • #1,790
  • Nov 25, 2016 8:31am Nov 25, 2016 8:31am
USDX gapped lower (possible island reversal for USDX if new gap downside not filled): but I don't like the "all time" high of USDX made by other session and not a pit one.
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  • #1,791
  • Nov 25, 2016 8:34am Nov 25, 2016 8:34am
Quoting Lock
12:55+1GMT .... ..... If instead next GB action and following preUS action will build a gap downside, meaning below yesterday pit session poor low at 24415, we could have exactly the opposite situation: in this case the weak references left by GB (yesterday weak high and today poor high) could be temporary skipped.
if pit gap downside not filled quickly we could skipp weaknesses above temporary. If instead it will be filled we could easily reach the weaknesses above.
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  • #1,792
  • Nov 25, 2016 8:53am Nov 25, 2016 8:53am
1 single pip gap left... Extraordinary weak market. I suggest caution because there are only day timeframe traders here for now.
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  • #1,793
  • Nov 25, 2016 9:14am Nov 25, 2016 9:14am
In a normal day I would say: it's not time to have a cup of coffee because with such narrow balance we could expect a major directional movement. But the day after Thanksgiving (a black Friday) maybe there is really nothing. I will stay here for sometime just to see. Then if nothing will happen I'll be off.

16 pips for this initial balance: the same value of 09.21. A record for the last months.

16:36+1GMT 1 pip gap downside eventually filled.

For any meaningfull continuation upside we need to see price acceptation back inside yesterday pit session range. If not it means that the game was only: fill the gap. SO watch out because this market is very very tricky.

Well, you know what? I'm off. Have a nice weekend. Best L.
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  • #1,794
  • Nov 25, 2016 10:00am Nov 25, 2016 10:00am
Quoting Lock
Well, you know what? I'm off. Have a nice weekend. Best L.
and it breaks...
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  • #1,795
  • Nov 25, 2016 2:04pm Nov 25, 2016 2:04pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} if pit gap downside not filled quickly we could skipp weaknesses above temporary. If instead it will be filled we could easily reach the weaknesses above.
21:04 +1GMT Well, eventually it works like that, but it wasn't that easy. At all.

Yesterday weak GB high at 24945 still in place. Considering the situation maybe it could be something for next week? I don't know. Surely we are during the last part of the US pit session, during "black Friday", etc.. So..

Note that anyway this week will end, with any probability, as an "inside" week, meaning that its range will be inside the range of the week before: this could lead to a possible break next weak.
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  • #1,796
  • Nov 25, 2016 2:13pm Nov 25, 2016 2:13pm
21:13+1GMT
Note also that H and K periods' lows are both tagging round 2450, as current L low is at yesterday pit open. So all of them are weak levels: carry these infomation forward.
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  • #1,797
  • Nov 27, 2016 7:13pm Nov 27, 2016 7:13pm
01:13 +1GMT (during the third period of Tokyo session)

Last week is inside the previous week as Friday is inside Thursday. Furthermore Friday GB session is inside Thursday GB session. We got a full balance environment here that could lead to a directional move. It will be possibly stronger if we will see a failed test in one direction and then the real break in the opposite direction. Let's see how will open the upcoming GB session range (24721-2415): a gap above or below could be a signal for the attempted breakout.
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  • #1,798
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:28am Nov 28, 2016 3:28am
Quoting Lock
01:13 +1GMT (during the third period of Tokyo session) Last week is inside the previous week as Friday is inside Thursday. Furthermore Friday GB session is inside Thursday GB session. We got a full balance environment here that could lead to a directional move. It will be possibly stronger if we will see a failed test in one direction and then the real break in the opposite direction. Let's see how will open the upcoming GB...
10:30+1GMT

GB opened with a gap upside and then stated to balance up and down open price, leaving the gap in place partially at least up to now. If the gap will be retraced we could go to the opposite side of the Friday GB session range/balance (24721-2415). If the gap will survive we could still go higher considering the attempted breakout as a temporary success. We have a lot of weaknesses below left by previous different sessions, so currently the only support is this new gap upside. Above we have, as a possible near term target, the old TRIPLE PASS GB GAP at 25413-2553.
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  • #1,799
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:40am Nov 28, 2016 3:40am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 10:30+1GMT GB opened with a gap upside and then stated to balance up and down open price, leaving the gap in place partially at least up to now. If the gap will be retraced we could go to the opposite side of the Friday GB session range/balance (24721-2415). If the gap will survive we could still go higher considering the attempted breakout as a temporary success. We have a lot of weaknesses below left by previous different sessions, so currently the only support[/highlight]...
10:40+1GMT
This D period spike liquidate completely the Tokyo attempt upwards, filling the new GB gap upside, and coming down directly just below the second weekly balance high at 24437 (major weekly reference). SO right now the attempted break above Friday high (also Friday GB session high and also last inside week range high) failed.
It's worth noting anyhow that current liquidation left above a poor high for GB session at 25155 and a weak C period high at open price (24967)
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  • #1,800
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:42am Nov 28, 2016 3:42am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Thanks for your consideration. This evening after market close I'll post an explanation of my point of view. Best L.
I didn't forget this, I simply didn't find the needed time to fulfill my promise. I'll do it asap.
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