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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,821
  • Nov 29, 2016 5:29am Nov 29, 2016 5:29am
Hi Lock,

As you know I'm still reading and studing the book "Markets in Profiles" and "Mind Over Markets"

I made a small exercise for the Long-Term Auction....
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  • #1,822
  • Nov 29, 2016 6:23am Nov 29, 2016 6:23am
15:23
Pit us is going to open with a substantial gap higher from yesterday pit session high. If preserved we could see the correction of the yesterday GB poor high and the old preUS poor high. Plus the filling of the old gap donside from 11.11. Let's see if it will ne the case.
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  • #1,823
  • Nov 29, 2016 6:24am Nov 29, 2016 6:24am
Quoting HappyMe
Hi Lock, As you know I'm still reading and studing the book "Markets in Profiles" and "Mind Over Markets" I made a small exercise for the Long-Term Auction.... {image}
Good. I'll comment it asap. Best L.
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  • #1,824
  • Edited 6:46am Nov 29, 2016 6:32am | Edited 6:46am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Good. I'll comment it asap. Best L.
And the intermediate -Term Auction between 06/2001 - 11/2007

Funny this is my first try with this approach but directly I see the balancing periods better....
I also can see the space between balancing and trend in this run...... as read in the books.....how bigger the gap between balancing periods the younger the trend....well that fits very good here

I try to follow it to the smaller timeframes until the daily MarketProfile can be used. With this I try to get the so called Holistic view.

ps: I also use the HEW (Harmonic Elliott Wave => is not the same as Elliott Wave ) for extra information/confirmation...just because I familiar with the HEW approach. That's why you also see the counts in it. Anyway it looks if it fits very nicely together but it has nothing to do with the MarketProfile approach!!
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  • #1,825
  • Nov 29, 2016 6:38am Nov 29, 2016 6:38am
15:38 We are at the top of a 12 days pit session balance: so watch out above it if tested (25138).

15:46
Obviously preUS low is not good at 24563 as it is poor: but current pit gap upside is supporting current price position. So it could be eventually skipped at least initially. Let me say that it is a risky position the current one. Because we are between two gaps. The last one upside (working as support) and the old one from 11.11 downside (working as resistance)

Also because today we saw a covering of the liquidation made yesterday I will not be surprise to see a new liquidation today of the inventories currently too long. Watch out!

16:06 Very very difficult situation. A lot of indecision: price up and down open many many times.

16:10 Pit US poor high tagging preUS high: it probably cannot resist. But what above it?

16:16 Note all the efforts to test the weekly balance 25122.

16:34 Very narrow balance: it should unfold from here.
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  • #1,826
  • Nov 29, 2016 7:37am Nov 29, 2016 7:37am
ABC poor high: again it should not resists there. But what then? I do not like all what I've seen after preUS opening.
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  • #1,827
  • Nov 29, 2016 7:50am Nov 29, 2016 7:50am
Quoting Lock
16:16 Note all the efforts to test the weekly balance 25122.
16:50+1GMT
For those who knows this reference and its importance: tagged at the pip.
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  • #1,828
  • Nov 29, 2016 7:54am Nov 29, 2016 7:54am
Quoting Lock
14:13+1GMT (edited untill 14:18) EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT ... Above we still have the yesterday GB session poor high 25155 and far above the old preUS session poor high 2555. ....
GB poor high taken out.

Quoting Lock
15:38 We are at the top of a 12 days pit session balance: so watch out above it if tested (25138).
We are currently above the pit 12 sessions balance high. For any meaningfull continuation upwards we need to have acceptation above this level. Meaning at least a couple of m30 period closed above it. If not...
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  • #1,829
  • Nov 29, 2016 8:08am Nov 29, 2016 8:08am
17:07
Price triggered automatic sellers above weekly balance for now. We are still in between 2 gaps. D low is weak at round 2500. Pre US low is poor. Today GB low is weak at round 2400. Tokyo low is poor. Very difficult situation to evaluate.
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  • #1,830
  • Nov 29, 2016 9:24am Nov 29, 2016 9:24am
Quoting Lock
Note also that 24873 is the half back of the last daily bracket.
As you see current Pit session low is a TAG of the half back of the main daily bracket.

Also for now we have no acceptation* above the weekly balance high at 25122 nor above the pit bracket high at 25138 (11.15 pit session high).

*no m30 periods closed above those levels.
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  • #1,831
  • Nov 29, 2016 1:21pm Nov 29, 2016 1:21pm
20:21+1GMT
So, while pit session is going to close after a full balance session, note that the composite profile made by GB+preUS+pit session is almost a perfect "P" shape: it has been clearly a short covering of the yesterday liquidation. Nothing more, nothing less.

I'm off. See you tomorrow. Best L.
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  • #1,832
  • Edited Nov 30, 2016 12:06am Nov 29, 2016 11:50pm | Edited Nov 30, 2016 12:06am
16/11/30 WENESDAY 08:50+1GMT (edited untill 09:04)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Draghi, OPEC, no major timeframes involved for months, full balance, very narrow profiles, prominent sessions' pocs, very mature composite poc, weaknesses all over the chart below and above current price location: this is current environment in cable. Surely one of the most difficult environment I've ever met in my experience.
In a top down perspective I can see a monthly attempted break down from previous balance currently morphed in a new balance with a November inside period of October (for now but today is 30), weekly full balance (last 4 weeks in balance with an attempted break above last inside week possibly failed), daily in full balance (with a 10 days row of overlapping periods).

In these last 10 days I only see a continuous two ways auction ruled by weak hands constantly who leads the market from too short inventories to too long inventories in a non stop action. Liquidations and short coverings are a constant in the last days. Actual market participants have no idea whatsoever of where to go because of the total absence of major timeframes involved. Consequently any meaningfull news or rumor generally triggers a move to the next most visible market reference. Then it generally overshoots it carrying the price too long or too short: then balance, then a new liquidation or short covering. That's what I've seen in the last sessions.

While generally gaps are a form of excess that could underline the presence of an occurred change, during last days we have seen a lot of gaps fully retraced during the same day: so we could consider all this gaps as a manifestation of emotion ruling action more than a sign of a change.

A continuous sequence of poor lows, poor highs and exact references (round numbers, previous highs and lows, previous unchanged and opens), similarly, are clear signs of the lack of participations of bigger timeframes.

09:04
GB opened inside yesterday GB range 23995-24893. Yesterday GB session left two minus development at 2434-24525 and below at 2423-2428. Pre US left a poor low at 24563. Today Sydney left a poor high at 2494 tagged by Tokyo high while Tokyo left a poor low at 24663.
See previous report too see other references above and below.
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  • #1,833
  • Nov 30, 2016 12:11am Nov 30, 2016 12:11am
09:11+1GMT
Yesterday GB session is inside Monday GB session. So a possible break could accur below or above yesterday GB range 23995-24893: if fails in one direction the netural initial taget will be the opposite side of that range.
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  • #1,834
  • Nov 30, 2016 12:18am Nov 30, 2016 12:18am
09:18 (edited untill 09:22)

Major nearest references are:

below:
the lower weekly balance high at 24437.
the major composite POC at 2417.
above:
the last daily bracket half back at 24873.
the upper weekly balance high at 25122.
the TRIPLE PASS GB GAP 25413-2553
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  • #1,835
  • Nov 30, 2016 12:50am Nov 30, 2016 12:50am
09:50+1GMT First attempted breakout above yesterday GB session range. (Sydney and Tokyo weak highs corrected)
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  • #1,836
  • Nov 30, 2016 1:15am Nov 30, 2016 1:15am
10:15 C at half back. Poor high at round 2500. Price up and down overnight high (Tokyo/Sydney highs) Full weak environment.
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  • #1,837
  • Nov 30, 2016 1:21am Nov 30, 2016 1:21am
10:21
25055 Is yesterday GB close: for any meaningfull continuation upside we need to have acceptation above this level.
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  • #1,838
  • Nov 30, 2016 1:27am Nov 30, 2016 1:27am
10:27
Price is now testing both Monday GB high 25155 and the weekly inside balance high 25122. Again, this is an other level we need to accept for any possible continuation upside. If not, back the way we came.

Remember that we left below the yesterday pit session poor low 24863, the yesterday preUS session poor low at 24563, today Tokyo poor low at 2466 and the yesterday GB session weak low at round 2400, plus the yesterday Tokyo session poor low just below it at 23874.
Finally current C period low at half back at 2485.

So monitor for continuation above: if it fails you know where it is going to go.
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  • #1,839
  • Nov 30, 2016 1:34am Nov 30, 2016 1:34am
Quoting Lock
10:27 Price is now testing both Monday GB high 25155 and the weekly inside balance high 25122. Again, this is an other level we need to accept for any possible continuation upside. If not, back the way we came.
Quoting Lock
Remember that we left below the yesterday pit session poor low 24863, the yesterday preUS session poor low at 24563, today Tokyo poor low at 2466 and the yesterday GB session weak low at round 2400, plus the yesterday Tokyo session poor low just below it at 23874. Finally current C period low at half back at 2485. So monitor for continuation above: if it fails you know where it is going to go.
Those who are not aware of current market condition will constantly be victim of such "strange" retracements.
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  • #1,840
  • Nov 30, 2016 1:40am Nov 30, 2016 1:40am
10:40
Again, we are in a rotational environment for now. A very weak one. Current GB high is weak as it is a tag of GB monday high and D high is weak as it is at round 2500. I'm not saying it's going to go there now. I'm saying current retracement is again a weak move. It's everywhere weak now. Plus C low at half back has not been corected yet but only tagged by D.
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