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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #445,841
  • Nov 28, 2016 12:59pm Nov 28, 2016 12:59pm
The best buy area in this overall setup comes in 1.2250 - 1.2300 area.

BUT

This will happen in 2 ways IMO:

1- When price will breake some resistances and show uptrend, just to reverse and never really bounce anywhere
Attached Image


2- With an "untakable" quick furious down move and a 40 to 60 pips pinbar in m5 minutes, and some shakes just to clear the area. Typical NFP (or similar event) move
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  • #445,842
  • Nov 28, 2016 1:03pm Nov 28, 2016 1:03pm
Quoting _BBKing_
However, still we are below the 1.25 - 1.2550 area. {image} Must be careful atm with longs! I scaled on friday and hedged my position. Let's see what the new week will tell us!
 
Sorry to bother you. what do you mean you hedged your position ?
You opened both a short and long ?
  • #445,843
  • Nov 28, 2016 1:19pm Nov 28, 2016 1:19pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} Â Sorry to bother you. what do you mean you hedged your position ? You opened both a short and long ?
yes on friday before mkt close
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  • #445,844
  • Nov 28, 2016 1:45pm Nov 28, 2016 1:45pm
Quoting _BBKing_
I just .... I don't know... It's like a feeling.... This thing gonna close daily > 1.26. EDIT: LOL !! I meant... 1.25! I've seen these patterns thousands times in the past... Could be wrong, of course! That's why I care about cutting and moving stops @BE asap. Let's see.
I'd say that might have been a possibility except for the fact that this is a very slow day - very little news, and traders in the US just drifting back to work after a long weekend.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #445,845
  • Nov 28, 2016 1:57pm Nov 28, 2016 1:57pm
Just based on this analysis (which may or may not be the right thing to focus on) - the fact that they've pushed it below 1.2400 four times now in the past week since the big up day last Monday, but haven't been able to keep it below there for any length of time, much less get a daily (US) close below there - I expect it to move higher this week, with 1.2450-1.2500 becoming new support area.

That scenario could be foiled by a major news release that slams it below 1.2350, but barring that, I expect it to play out.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #445,846
  • Nov 28, 2016 2:44pm Nov 28, 2016 2:44pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.png Size: 54 KB
FUND MANAGE # CONSISTENT PROFITS
  • #445,847
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:17pm Nov 28, 2016 3:17pm
Quoting jbmaverick
Just based on this analysis (which may or may not be the right thing to focus on) - the fact that they've pushed it below 1.2400 four times now in the past week since the big up day last Monday, but haven't been able to keep it below there for any length of time, much less get a daily (US) close below there - I expect it to move higher this week, with 1.2450-1.2500 becoming new support area. That scenario could be foiled by a major news release that slams it below 1.2350, but barring that, I expect it to play out.
Yes true
Problem is that the very same can be applied to the 1.25 resistance, able to reject every time every type of move up.

Only during post trumf election price went above.

And today's reject is even uglier than previous ones...
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  • #445,848
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:46pm Nov 28, 2016 3:46pm
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} Yes true Problem is that the very same can be applied to the 1.25 resistance, able to reject every time every type of move up. Only during post trumf election price went above. And today's reject is even uglier than previous ones...
True enough, good point. Beyond that one point of analysis I referred to, I'm also looking at other factors that lead me to believe it may be an overall down week for the US dollar. Gbp was out of step today, hurt by early news, as both Eur/Usd and Aud/Usd, and gold and silver, are finishing the day on the plus side. Unless those trends reverse, I'd expect the drag effect on Gbp to be a pull upward.
Nonetheless, you're right - there's nothing really decisive here until you either get a close above 1.2500 or under 1.2350, in my not so humble opinion.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #445,849
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:48pm Nov 28, 2016 3:48pm
In the meantime, I'm just daytrading - bought Gbp/Usd at 1.2392 early, cashed out half at 1.2425, stopped out on the other half at 1.2402, so at least I put a few coins in my pocket.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #445,850
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:52pm Nov 28, 2016 3:52pm
Quoting jbmaverick
In the meantime, I'm just daytrading - bought Gbp/Usd at 1.2392 early, cashed out half at 1.2425, stopped out on the other half at 1.2402, so at least I put a few coins in my pocket.
I was just looking the same... if everytime I bought I did full size and closed near 1.2430... would have been a wonderful day! While I just cashed a bit.
Better than nothing but, hopefully tomorrow will be better
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  • #445,851
  • Nov 28, 2016 5:33pm Nov 28, 2016 5:33pm
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} yes on friday before mkt close
Hi BBKing,
I am trying to understand hedging in more depth. So you do this to avoid losing money on one position (that avoiding to take the loss) and go the other way which also protects you from margin calls until (according to your logic) the price goes back again to the initial entry aka BE?
When do you do this? there must be some logic behind this right?
thanks
  • #445,852
  • Nov 29, 2016 12:12am Nov 29, 2016 12:12am
Inserted Video
  • #445,853
  • Nov 29, 2016 1:13am Nov 29, 2016 1:13am
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} Hi BBKing, I am trying to understand hedging in more depth. So you do this to avoid losing money on one position (that avoiding to take the loss) and go the other way which also protects you from margin calls until (according to your logic) the price goes back again to the initial entry aka BE? When do you do this? there must be some logic behind this right? thanks
The logic is simple and mainly behind the actual conditions surrounding GBP:

during the weekend my broker closes price feed on friday and re-opens on late sunday, causing the inability to manage the position in case of any event. My position was small but enough to cause heavy damages in case of a sunday opening 1000pips below my entry (can happen, never underestimate market!!!). Given the fact that I cannot manage it in case of drops until late sunday evening (like most retail brokers), I prefer to hedge the position so if prices will be around same levels and on same structure I will then resume the original position like I did this sunday.

It is the same thing than closing the position... the only difference is that to me, it looks different having an hedged position than a closed one: it gives me the "pressure" to act and focusing better on the market structure.

Last but not least, my broker applies the full hedging rule so e.g. if I have 1 lot long in GBP/USD using 1200$ equity, and I open 1 lot short in GBP/USD the resulting equity used will be zero.

But definetly, given the actual situation in GBP and considering what happened recently with that flash 800pips move down, I will not certainly leave any position if there is not a clear stop loss or a strong safety measure!! When for some reasons I leave charts, I always cut any positions at a point where if for whatever reason price spikes in a flash move not filling my stop loss (also can happen) the damage will be heavy but not destroing my account. I prefer reload the position when I come back.

It's all about trying to stay safe
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  • #445,854
  • Edited 1:44am Nov 29, 2016 1:32am | Edited 1:44am
16/11/29 TUESDAY 08:18 +1GMT (edited untill 08:43)
EARLY MORNING REPORT
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #445,855
  • Nov 29, 2016 1:46am Nov 29, 2016 1:46am
I don't like a lot the "diagonal stuff" since in my opinion, they are just a perception (...) but looking at daily price is continuosly coming back and somehow bouncing when meets that rising TL.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 79 KB


Everytime price bounced around 60 to 80 straight pips followed by a continuation upward. Last monday there was a good bounce but did not continue and we still are here. Not a good sign indeed.

Let's see if the support 1.2380 - 1.2400 will find demand or if we go down to the 1.2360 and 1.2300
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  • #445,856
  • Nov 29, 2016 1:59am Nov 29, 2016 1:59am
m15 setup to show the actual situation:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_USD_15 Mins_snapshot.png Size: 16 KB


some demand near 1.2380, and supply near 1.2430
possible support in 1.2360 and 1.2300
possible resistance 1.2490 and 1.2550
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  • #445,857
  • Nov 29, 2016 2:49am Nov 29, 2016 2:49am
A more realistic daily view showing the importance of 1.2420-1.2430 area.
Still holding long position but will be far better to see market conquering this level to hope at least for a 1.2440 - 1.2450

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 4 KB
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  • #445,858
  • Nov 29, 2016 3:28am Nov 29, 2016 3:28am
I hate these pre-news moves
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  • #445,859
  • Nov 29, 2016 3:35am Nov 29, 2016 3:35am
Quoting _BBKing_
I hate these pre-news moves
and I hate people that spam and overpost forums especially this one just because it makes them feel so important.
  • #445,860
  • Nov 29, 2016 3:37am Nov 29, 2016 3:37am
Fly......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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