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Attachments: Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses
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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #61
  • Nov 6, 2016 2:24pm Nov 6, 2016 2:24pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The major trend is downwards on the higher time frames. However, the market has been in a consolidating mode for a long while; clearly seen on the weekly and daily time frames.

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Nevertheless, on the daily time frame price action has largely respected the downward trendline (navy colour).

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On the 4H time frame, the most recent price action has been within an ascending channel (magenta colour), with the technicals all reinforcing a further push upwards towards the distal part of the channel and possibly with a target of the immediate weekly resistance zone between 115.960 and 116.210. Failure in this attempt may result in a further ranging play within the channel or a southward push to target the immediate support zone between 112.730 and 112.360, perhaps after a role flip around the monthly pivot.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #62
  • Nov 6, 2016 2:48pm Nov 6, 2016 2:48pm
GBPNZD Weekly Technical outlook

Basically the pair is still in decline. However, the immediate mode is a retracement to the upside. This disposition is better seen on the daily time frame. The downward trendline (navy colour) is still respected but the retracement upwards may be targeting the trendline. This may involve breaching the monthly pivot and then threaten the immediate resistance around 1.74590.

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On the 4H time frame, the pair is operating in an ascending channel (magenta colour) and is on an upward push possibly targeting the trendline or the 61.8 Fib, which is in confluence with the immediate resistance zone on the 4H time frame. Failure to breach the tendline to the upside may see price action pushing southwards within the channel, and may lead to a further bearish drive to target the immediate support zone around 1.68590.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #63
  • Nov 13, 2016 11:53am Nov 13, 2016 11:53am
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair still maintains an upward disposition. On the weekly time frame, it is still operating within an ascending channel (navy colour) with the inner trendline very much respected by price action.

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On the daily time frame, the pair is operating at the middle area of the channel and is targeting the upper channel line. The order flow context shows that the bulls are still dominant and may be targeting the next resistance zone, between 1.36500 and 1.37210.

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The technicals and order flow on the 4H time frame show alignment for further upward momentum.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #64
  • Edited 12:27pm Nov 13, 2016 12:08pm | Edited 12:27pm
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

Although the primary trend is downwards, the market mood favours an upward push or retracement.

On the weekly time frame, a strong engulfing candlestick which formed last week moved the pair from an area of consolidation to breach the immediate weekly resistance with a target of the next weekly resistance zone, between 1.68162 and 1.69267.

Attached Image


On the daily time frame, price has breached the inner trend line and heading for the next resistance zone. There is a possibility of a test of the 50.0 Fib and perhaps the 61.8 Fib. Otherwise, price may retract to below the trendline targeting the immediate support zone, which is proximal to the monthly pivot.

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On the 4H time frame, the order flow context indicates a strong influence by the bulls, but the technicals show a slowing down of momentum. This should not be surprising as price is at a resistance level on the 4H time frame and a sideways mode could be expected before possibly a further upward push. What happens at the next resistance, which adjoins the 50.0 Fib, could be significant to whether price moves further upwards or retracts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #65
  • Nov 13, 2016 1:09pm Nov 13, 2016 1:09pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Although the primary trend is downwards, the market mood favours an upward push or retracement.

On the weekly time frame, the order flow and the technical favour a further upward push perhaps with a target of the high of the bearish drop six weeks ago, which is within the immediate resistance zone.

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On the daily time frame, price has breached the inner trendline (navy colour) and the technical point to a further upward move – which is consonant with the observation on the weekly time frame. However, price may hit resistance around 1.28455 or may turn the area to a role flip for a further upward push with a target of the immediate weekly resistance around 1.30490. Should price fail in its upward push, it may retract to below the inner trendline with an initial target of the immediate support around 1.23970.

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The price action is on a bearish mode on the 4H time frame but the technicals and order flow context favour further upward move.

I may be wrong. trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #66
  • Nov 20, 2016 12:10pm Nov 20, 2016 12:10pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The overall trend is downwards. On the weekly time frame, after reinstating a downward trend in May 2014, the pair has completed three price waves to the downside. A fourth price wave which began in August 2016 was followed by a period of consolidation and then resulted in a play of a corrective price action which started three weeks ago. Last week a bearish candle attempted another price move to the downside. The resulting price action may be to target the low of the fourth price wave, around 1.19710 and the technicals on the weekly time frame seem aligned for this.

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On the daily time frame, for much of October 2016 up to mid November 2016, the pair has been operating in an ascending channel (saddle brown colour). Apparently, during the latter part of last week, the channel was breached to the downside.

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On the 4H time frame, the order flow indicated that the bulls are still influential and the bearish momentum is apparently weak. This situation may result in a retest of the lower channel line before a further southwards move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #67
  • Nov 20, 2016 12:30pm Nov 20, 2016 12:30pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Analysis

The overall trend is downwards. On the weekly time frame, the pair has been on a downside since March 2013 and has completed four price waves to the downside. It began a major retracement to the upside in January 2016 and peaked around 76.4 Fib level in April 2016. Between August and October 2016, the pair has been operating in a sideways mode but the down trend has been respected. Two weeks ago, a bearish engulfing candlestick made an attempt to breach the sideways mode. This was confirmed by a relatively large bearish candlestick last week. Should the downward drive hold, price action is likely to target the next support zone, which is around 0.71990. The technicals are in support of a further downward move.
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On the daily time frame, the pair has been operating in a sideways in a channel (dotted lines in magenta colour) since June 2016 and formed an ascending flag (saddle brown colour) in the channel. Last week, price action broke below the ascending flag but the channel was not significantly breached.
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After a long period of sideways move, price has completed three waves to the downside on the 4H time frame. The order flow context is still bearish and the market structure for bears still holds.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_4H_Nov._20,_2016.png Size: 20 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #68
  • Nov 20, 2016 12:46pm Nov 20, 2016 12:46pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The overall trend is upwards. On the weekly time frame, the pair has been in an upward trend since August 2012 and has completed six price waves with consummated corrective pullbacks. The most recent pullback touched somewhere around the 123.6 Fib but the market structure was never breached. Rather the pullback resulted in the formation of an inner trendline to the upside, which is still respected by price action.

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On the 4H time frame, price is operating in an ascending channel with a bullish mode which is supported by the technicals. This may likely target the next resistance zone around 1.36448.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #69
  • Nov 27, 2016 3:39pm Nov 27, 2016 3:39pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Although the long-term market direction is still southwards, the market mood is to the upside. Thus, there is likely to be a retracement to the upside before the southward move returns.

On the weekly time frame, price rejected the major descending trendline two weeks ago but last week, a bearish candlestick formed in an attempt to retest the trendline.

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On the daily time frame, after a long period of consolidation, price moved below the lower channel of the consolidation last week and immediately retraced about 23%. The technicals on the daily time frame indicate that there is a probability of further retracement to the upside. A retest of the trendline will approximate to 50.0 % Fib level. Should price breach the trendline, it may target the 61.8 Fib level or perhaps the upper channel of the consolidation range, which is proximal to the next resistance zone on the weekly time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #70
  • Edited 4:16pm Nov 27, 2016 4:02pm | Edited 4:16pm
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

Although the long-term market direction is still southwards, the market mood is to the upside. Thus, there is likely to be a retracement to the upside before the southward move returns.

On the weekly time frame, price respects the descending trendline. However, the recent order flow sees the bulls influence a corrective move which may test trendline to the upside. A likely target of such a move is the strong weekly resistance zone around 1.74220; which is proximal to the 50.0 Fib.

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The technicals on both the daily and 4H time frames support further upside move in the immediate price action.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #71
  • Nov 27, 2016 4:18pm Nov 27, 2016 4:18pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The major trend is still bearish. However, the market is currently on an upward mode.

On the weekly time frame, the order flow is dominated by the bulls and the trend line is being retested. Any breach of the trendline may see price target the immediate weekly resistance zone around 122.158 before heading southwards.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #72
  • Dec 2, 2016 5:22am Dec 2, 2016 5:22am
Quoting KeenPips
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook Although the long-term market direction is still southwards, the market mood is to the upside. Thus, there is likely to be a retracement to the upside before the southward move returns. On the weekly time frame, price respects the descending trendline. However, the recent order flow sees the bulls influence a corrective move which may test trendline to the upside. A likely target of such a move is the strong weekly resistance zone around 1.74220; which is proximal to the 50.0 Fib. {image} The technicals on both the...
This pair has been largely range bound this week. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #73
  • Dec 11, 2016 12:54pm Dec 11, 2016 12:54pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

This pair has been on a descending trend since March 2014. However, for much of 2015 the market has been on a sideways mode. A series of consolidation patterns followed; between August and November 2016, price action formed a horizontal consolidation pattern which retested the descending trendline on the weekly time frame. The resulting order flow led to a bearish push and the bears are still strongly influential. Last week, a bearish pin bar formed at a significant weekly support. This is indicative of a further bearish move with a probable target of the next weekly support around 1.03517.

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The order flow context on the 4H time frame is supportive of further bearish influence but the present level is very close to a monthly resistance zone last visited several years ago.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #74
  • Dec 11, 2016 1:19pm Dec 11, 2016 1:19pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Since January 2015, the pair has respected a descending trendline. As can be seen on the monthly time frame, this trendline formed after a 74.6% Fib retracement of a much larger descending trend which began in July 2007, that trend retracing about 74% between January 2013 and December 2014.

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On the weekly time frame, the descending trendline is still holding. However, in the last two weeks price attempted to breach the trendline but not with success. Although the order flow context still favours the bulls, the market structure for a downward trend is not yet breached. Much likely there would be a further bullish effort to test the immediate resistance zone between 124.605 and 124.641. In regard to price waves formation on the weekly timeframe, the first downward price wave was corrected with a strong pull back, which gave rise to the second price wave – much longer and has resulted in the current corrective move, which is now heading towards the 50.0 Fib level; a level that adjoins the immediate resistance zone.

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The daily time frame indicates that the descending trendline is still respected but recent price action seems towards filling the bearish gap created last Thursday and perhaps making a retest of the trendline and with an initial target of the next resistance on the daily time frame, around 123.354.

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The 4H time frame is very much aligned with the observation on the daily time frame. The price action on the 4H time frame is respecting the ascending trendline (saddlebrown colour) and the bulls are still influential.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_4H_December_11,_2016.png Size: 39 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #75
  • Dec 11, 2016 1:32pm Dec 11, 2016 1:32pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The major trend on the weekly time frame is up. There was a 50 % Fib retracement between January and June 2016 and a down trend had been in play for much of 2016, however the market structure was breached to the upside and the bulls are still influential. Currently, the price action is around a strong S/R zone but the bullish influence may see at least an initial target test of the zone which spans 116.280 and 117.060.

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The technicals on the daily time frame support the observation on the weekly. The price has just breached the 61.8% Fib and the likely next target is the next resistance which adjoins the 74.6 Fib; if this is breached the market structure for a downward trend on the daily time frame will be much threatened.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_Daily_December_11,_2016.png Size: 50 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #76
  • Dec 15, 2016 7:07am Dec 15, 2016 7:07am
EURUSD Technical Update

The momentum for further bearish push is apparently sustained on the EURUSD.

Trade safe and well.

KP

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Quoting KeenPips
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook This pair has been on a descending trend since March 2014. However, for much of 2015 the market has been on a sideways mode. A series of consolidation patterns followed; between August and November 2016, price action formed a horizontal consolidation pattern which retested the descending trendline on the weekly time frame. The resulting order flow led to a bearish push and the bears are still strongly influential. Last week, a bearish pin bar formed at a significant weekly support. This is indicative of a further...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #77
  • Dec 18, 2016 1:29pm Dec 18, 2016 1:29pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Quoting KeenPips
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook The major trend on the weekly time frame is up. There was a 50 % Fib retracement between January and June 2016 and a down trend had been in play for much of 2016, however the market structure was breached to the upside and the bulls are still influential....


The pair has now moved further upward since last week, which was the expected direction as of last week’s technical analysis. However, on the weekly timeframe the price action has tested the trendline after breaching the 61.8% Fib retracement. The price rejected the trendline but the technicals indicate momentum for a further push to the upside. A likely target is the 78.4% Fib level which is proximal to the significant round number of 120.000. With the immediate resistance zone on the weekly time frame just above this level, there may be a spike upwards before a further move downwards.

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On the daily time frame, the descending trendline is still respected but the order flow context still shows the influence of the bulls for a further upward push, which may be limited or restrained around the descending trendline on the weekly time frame and the 74.6% Fib level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_Daily_December_18,_2016.png Size: 47 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #78
  • Dec 18, 2016 1:40pm Dec 18, 2016 1:40pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has now moved further upward since last week, which was the expected direction as of last week’s technical analysis. However, the technicals on both the weekly and daily time frames still indicate the possibility of further upward move. A possible target is the immediate resistance zone on the weekly time frame, which spans both the 50.0 and 61.8% Fib levels.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Although on the daily time frame, the price is still respecting an ascending trendline, it has not breached the major descending trendline (chocolate colour); and so the market structure for the down trend is still in place. Thus, the possibility for a push back of price action to the downside is high.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_Daily_December_18,_2016_001.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #79
  • Dec 20, 2016 8:57am Dec 20, 2016 8:57am
EURJPY Technical Update

Having being pushed further upwards yesterday and still on the upward drive, you may expect the EURJPY to track backwards to the south after hitting the weekly pivot and retesting the 4H ascending trendline which it rejected yesterday.

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You can see a clearer picture of this on the 1H time frame.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #80
  • Dec 25, 2016 6:23am Dec 25, 2016 6:23am
KeenPips, good topic, I signed up. This is a great approach to analyze the top down. And what MA and Pivot indicator you use? If you can link to the indicators. Thank you!
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