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Attachments: Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses
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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #21
  • Sep 20, 2016 7:48am Sep 20, 2016 7:48am
One main objective of this thread is to encourage FF members to adopt a top-down approach as part of their trading strategies and techniques. If you believe in top-down technical analysis or approach to understand, track and trap the market, feel encouraged to contribute to this thread and share your experience and ideas with other FF members. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #22
  • Sep 21, 2016 8:24am Sep 21, 2016 8:24am
AUDUSD Tracking Update

Price is now at an area of interest. If the upper trend line of the channel adjoining the monthly pivot is breached to the downside on the 4Hrly time frame, that should be a good cue to trade southwards. See attached.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_4H_Tracking_Update_Wednesday_Sept._21,_2016.png Size: 22 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

Quoting KeenPips
AUDUSD Update Price has continued operating within the ascending channel and yet to reject the channel to either side. Atm price action is testing the 50.0 Fib level of the most recent swing low. As can be seen in the attached daily and 4-hourly charts, there is confluence of resistance around the monthly pivot, a few mini-trendlines and 50/61.8 Fibs. {image} {image} Note the below excerpts of the weekly outlook, particularly the ones in bold type. I may be wrong. Trade safe. KP {quote}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #23
  • Sep 21, 2016 8:33am Sep 21, 2016 8:33am
Quoting KeenPips
AUDUSD Tracking Update Price is now at an area of interest. If the upper trend line of the channel adjoining the monthly pivot is breached to the downside on the 4Hrly time frame, that should be a good cue to trade southwards. See attached. {image} I may be wrong. Trade safe and well. {quote}
Note that the price has rejected the 61.8 Fib level.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #24
  • Sep 23, 2016 2:41am Sep 23, 2016 2:41am
Cable Update

The outlook on cable is still bearish; strongly supported by technicals on HTFs.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_Update_Daily_Friday_Sept._23,_2016.png Size: 18 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_Update_4H_Friday_Sept._23,_2016.png Size: 19 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #25
  • Edited 10:32am Sep 25, 2016 10:16am | Edited 10:32am
It is often difficult to devote the time and effort to do a thorough weekly scan and analysis of the Forex market in preparation for efficient and well-focused trading during the week. It is a slow process initially but with effort and practice, realizing the value of such a preparatory and planning work, it would become less tedious and much fun. For example, I have just completed my weekly scan and analysis on the pairs on my watch list. Only three of the pairs are amenable to trading with my strategy and techniques during the week. These are: GBPAUD, GBPNZD and GBPUSD. I will look for opportunities to trade them southward within my identified and clearly defined areas. As soon as I finish my trading plan, I will share my weekly analyses with FF members.

What about you? Have you done your weekly analysis and chosen the pairs you would like to trade? Share your analysis and outlook here with other forum members. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #26
  • Sep 25, 2016 2:29pm Sep 25, 2016 2:29pm
This week I am shorting AUD/NZD. There is pretty strong support/resistance level at 1.052 as well as bearish trend which has just been touched so I am overall expecting it to go down. This is D1 chart.

http://i.imgur.com/QO1LsjU.jpg

I am also watching GBP/CHF for potential breakout. Chart is H4.

http://i.imgur.com/GeCaPEy.jpg

Hope all makes sense. Some feedback would be appreciated since I am new here to FF.

Wish you all safe trading.
  • #27
  • Sep 25, 2016 3:23pm Sep 25, 2016 3:23pm
This is a plea or warning to any would-be contributor to this thread. Please do not post any chart or item that promotes your commercial interest on this thread. Such a post will be cleaned up and if you persist you will be banned from this thread. Simply attach your chart without linking it to any commercial site. Trade safe and be ethical.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #28
  • Sep 25, 2016 3:29pm Sep 25, 2016 3:29pm
GBPAUD Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the pair has maintained a bearish tone since October 2008. A significant retracement was confirmed in October 2013 which peaked at the 61.8 Fib in August 2015. Since then, the market on this pair has maintained its displacement southwards.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_Top_Down_Analysis_Weekly_Sunday_Sept._25,_2016.png Size: 20 KB


On the daily time frame, the southward mode supervenes. Two weeks ago, price retested the southward, daily mini-trendline established with the Brexit drop down but has since retracted southwards. It is now respecting a mini trendline on the 4H time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_Top-Down_Analysis_Daily_Sunday_Sept._25,_2016.png Size: 21 KB


Any break of this mini trendlne on the 4H time frame northwards is likely to see price to initially target the immediate resistance zone around 1.72726, which is in confluence with the monthly pivot. Otherwise, respecting the trendline to the downside will involve price breaking the corrective mode – represented by a micro trendline, to the downside which is likely to target the weekly support zone around 1.68493, the origin of the corrective move upwards which began two weeks ago.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_Top-Down_Analysis_4H_Sunday_Sept._25,_2016.png Size: 20 KB

I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #29
  • Sep 25, 2016 4:08pm Sep 25, 2016 4:08pm
GBPNZD Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the pair has maintained a bearish tone since March 2009. Although the downward market structure was breached in May 2015 - actually a 61.8 Fib retracement of the original low swing, within three months the downward mode was restored. Thus, since August 2015 the market on this pair has maintained its displacement southwards.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_Sunday_Sept._25,_2016.png Size: 18 KB


On the daily time frame, the southward mode supervenes. Last week, price retested the southward, daily mini-trendline established with the Brexit drop down but did not breach it. On the 4H time frame, my set-up time frame, the market remains on the bearish mode, respecting a 4H mini-trendline which was retested a few times last week with price action in play around the 50.0 Fib.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_Daily_Sunday_Sept._25,_2016.png Size: 21 KB


Any break of this 4H mini-trendline to the upside may target around 1.79744 close to the 61.8 Fib and in confluence with a retest of the daily mini-trend line above. Failure of price to break upwards may see a southward break of the micro-trendline on the 4H time frame which took the immediate corrective price action on its upward move; this is likely to target 1.76167, the origin of the corrective move upwards.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_4H_Outlook_Sunday_Sept._25,_2016.png Size: 25 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_4H_MicroTrend_Sunday_Sept._25,_2016_001.png Size: 22 KB



I may be wrong. Trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #30
  • Sep 25, 2016 4:23pm Sep 25, 2016 4:23pm
GBPUSD Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the pair has maintained a bearish tone since March 2008 without breaking the market structure even though this was tested with a retracement between 2013 and 2014 but terminated at the 50.0 Fib in July 2014. Since then, the market on this pair has maintained its displacement southwards.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_Sunday_Sept._25,_2016.png Size: 20 KB


On the daily time frame, the southward mode supervenes. Two weeks ago, price retested the mini daily trendline established pre-Brexit but has since retracted southwards. It is now respecting a mini trendline on the 4H time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_Daily_Sunday_Sept._25,_2016.png Size: 21 KB


On the 4H time frame, price is respecting a mini trendline bearing southwards but recent price action saw the bulls getting influential for an upward push. As this area is close to a weekly support zone, there is likelihood for a corrective move upwards, perhaps to retest the mini trendine and may target the resistance zone above it, which is proximal to the monthly pivot. Otherwise, price may breach southwards a micro trendline the current retracement mode, to target the weekly support zone around 1.28753, which was last tested on August 16.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_4H_Sunday_Sept._25,_2016.png Size: 24 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #31
  • Sep 28, 2016 6:10am Sep 28, 2016 6:10am
NZDUSD Outlook

The kiwi was not part of the pairs that qualified for further analysis after my weekly scan on Sunday. However, just yesterday I saw an opportunity to go north on the pair and I took it. Just this morning as I was preparing for my first market review for the day, I saw that the kiwi is actually operating in an ascending channel in a major downtrend and is at the 50.0 Fib. It did not occur to me earlier and it is good to share it here. See the weekly chart attached. Notice that the pair has not confirmed an outer upward trendline on the weekly timeframe and so cannot be said to be on a reversal to the north.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_Wednesday_Sept._28,_2016.png Size: 22 KB


On the 4H time frame you will notice that the pair is now on a southbound mood within an inner channel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_4H_Wednesday_Sept._28,_2016.png Size: 28 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #32
  • Sep 28, 2016 6:29am Sep 28, 2016 6:29am
Quoting KeenPips
NZDUSD Outlook The kiwi was not part of the pairs that qualified for further analysis after my weekly scan on Sunday. However, just yesterday I saw an opportunity to go north on the pair and I took it. Just this morning as I was preparing for my first market review for the day, I saw that the kiwi is actually operating in an ascending channel in a major downtrend and is at the 50.0 Fib. It did not occur to me earlier and it is good to share it here. See the weekly chart attached. Notice that the pair has not confirmed an outer upward trendline on...

If the pair respects the lower trendline on the inner channel on the 4H time frame, a northward trade from there is likely to profitably target the immediate resistance zone about 100 pips to the north. A larger target may be further to the north at the upper trendline of the channel.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #33
  • Oct 2, 2016 11:18am Oct 2, 2016 11:18am
EURGBP Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the pair has been on an uptrend since November 2015. At present the price action is testing the 61.8 Fib of an original downward trend started in December 2008. That trend retraced to the 61.8 Fib in July 2011 and got reinstated thereafter until November 2015. Is there a second 61.5 Fib retracement or a breach to the upside? If there is breach to the upside, it is likely to retest the 74.6 Fib level above before the market structure is broken. It should be noted that the ascending trend for the upward push has not yet been confirmed and the possibility for a southward move cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, the fact that the price action is proximal to a weekly S/R zone is interesting and requires a careful watch of price reaction in the area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_1_Sunday_Sept._2,_2016.png Size: 23 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_2_Sunday_Oct._2,_2016.png Size: 22 KB


On the daily time frame, price is respecting an inner trendline, somewhat forming an ascending channel. And recent candlesticks indicated that the bulls were in control. A likely target of such bull push may be in the region of 0.87156, which is distal of the weekly resistance zone. Failure in this may see price retest the lower trendline or the monthly pivot below it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_Top-Down_Analysis_Daily_Sunday_Oct._2,_2016.png Size: 20 KB

The technicals on the 4H timeframe support a further northward move. However, a middle trendline (in magenta colour) is serving as a resistance for a ranging price action that commenced last week Wednesday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_Top-DownAnalysis_4H_Sunday_Oct._2,_2016.png Size: 24 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.


KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #34
  • Oct 2, 2016 11:22am Oct 2, 2016 11:22am
GBPAUD Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the market is respecting a downtrend from the 61.8% Fib retracement of a major downtrend began in September 2008. Since July 2016, price has ranged between two significant weekly S/R zones. Price action in the past three weeks is disposing the market further southwards, perhaps for a visit to the distal part of the immediate weekly support around 1.68182. Any break of that level may see price target the next support area around 1.66404, which was last visited in October 2013.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_Sunday_Oct._2,_2016.png Size: 20 KB


On the daily time frame, price is respecting daily trendline to the downside. Besides, a horizontal channel formed post-Brexit has respected the market structure and portends a further southward move. Nevertheless, price may make a brief corrective move upwards to test the trendline before further southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_Top-Down_Analysis_Daily_Sunday_Oct._2,_2016.png Size: 24 KB


On the 4H time frame, price has completed one price wave to the downside after the upward move within the established range on the daily time frame. The market is now in consolidation mode. Price may likely retest a 4H resistance zone it has recently left around 1. 70897 (which is in confluence with the 50.0 Fib) and possibly turn the zone for a flip to the downside for a second price wave downwards. Doing this will respect a downward inner trendline on the 4H time frame. All the technicals on the 4H time frame are in sync for further bearish disposition.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_Top-Down_Analysis_4H_Sunday_Oct._2,_2016.png Size: 23 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #35
  • Edited 11:42am Oct 2, 2016 11:27am | Edited 11:42am
GBPNZD Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the market is respecting a downtrend from the 61.8% Fib retracement of a major downtrend began in January 2009. A weekly support zone around 1.76425 last visited in October 2013 was spiked post-Brexit in July 2016 and since then price has ranged between it and the immediate weekly resistance zone to the north. Price action in the past three weeks has shown southward disposition but the bulls struggled against the move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_Sunday_Oct._2,_2016.png Size: 18 KB


On the daily time frame, price is respecting an inner daily trendline to the downside. Besides, a horizontal channel formed post-Brexit has respected the market structure and portends a further southward move because recently price has moved to another lower horizontal channel and the downtrend has not been significantly breached.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_Daily_Sunday_Oct._2,_2016.png Size: 22 KB


On the 4H time frame, after price completed one price wave to the downside, there was a strong retracement to test the 61.8 Fib on at least two occasions but was rejected to the downside. Price action is now operating in a somewhat descending channel and is respecting the mini trendline on the 4H time frame. However, should price break the trendline to the upside, it may target the immediate resistance zone around 1.79605. All the technicals on the 4H time frame are in sync for further bearish disposition.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_4H_Sunday_Oct._2,_2016.png Size: 25 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #36
  • Oct 2, 2016 12:33pm Oct 2, 2016 12:33pm
Hi i used Q for big picture first ,the pivot zone could well take us to the open gap and still hold trend
is close to top of channel
with this zone as a major obstacle and Doji w1 as before possiblly so long as it wont open bullish
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur GBP q (DFB).png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur gbp w1 (DFB).png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur gbp d1 (DFB).png Size: 24 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #37
  • Oct 3, 2016 12:54pm Oct 3, 2016 12:54pm
Quoting Bones
Hi i used Q for big picture first ,the pivot zone could well take us to the open gap and still hold trend is close to top of channel with this zone as a major obstacle and Doji w1 as before possiblly so long as it wont open bullish {image} {image} {image}
Agreed. Room to the upside though. Price is operating at the 61.8 Fib, which is in confluence with a weekly S/R zone. However, there is potential for price action to target 74.6 Fib before any downward move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_Update_Weekly_Monday_Oct._3,_2016.png Size: 25 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and well.


KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #38
  • Oct 4, 2016 4:56pm Oct 4, 2016 4:56pm
EURGBP Update

This pair has taken a good stride further northwards.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_Update_Tuesday_Oct._4,_2016.png Size: 19 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #39
  • Edited 11:57am Oct 5, 2016 11:01am | Edited 11:57am
Hi Keen maybe EG looks like this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur gbp d1 (DFB).png Size: 28 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #40
  • Oct 5, 2016 1:00pm Oct 5, 2016 1:00pm
Quoting Bones
Hi Keen maybe EG looks like this {image}
Hi Bones! The weekly outlook is the focus. Anything can happen intra-day but the overall weekly outlook is the emphasis. The below chat shows that the pair is still operating and respecting an upward channel, largely. It should be noted that price is at a significant weekly resistance zone. Trade safe and well.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_Update_Daily_Wednesday_Oct._5,_2016.png Size: 24 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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