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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #444,461
  • Oct 25, 2016 1:20pm Oct 25, 2016 1:20pm
Quoting FXClarity
Of course the joker in the pack is the low of the flash crash candle on every time above 5 mins. This 'Mother Bar' (and it is 'one mother' of a candle) has different lows with almost every retail FX broker as such from a technical perspective cable is 'damaged goods' right now and needs to be handled carefully. Only when this candle breaks its high or low can the chart 'heal'
I note on my chart (Broker IG.com) the flash crash candle low was at 2078 today we got as low as 2081. Do you think we either need to break through lower decisively or back above it at 2613 to put it aside?
Striving for consistency
  • #444,462
  • Oct 25, 2016 1:23pm Oct 25, 2016 1:23pm
Quoting FXClarity
{quote} Yeah, the trickier part is sizing the entries right now.. As an aside have you noticed the trend when pairs exhibit these moves into Q4 they often run through until year end then reverse massively?
80 to 90% or more of candles have a wick on both sides.

If you look at yearly candlesticks, we rarely close on the high or low of the year.

So yes, fading the major trend of the year in Q4 is actually a great strategy.

I'd say its around an 80 or 90% probability we close the year at least 200-300 pips off the lows, and probably even higher than that.


Seen this PA many times before... reversal becomes more probable if we close the week at these levels or higher.
Attached Image
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #444,463
  • Oct 25, 2016 1:27pm Oct 25, 2016 1:27pm
gonna close around 1.22. if it was around 1.21 hover, would've hold. Screwed with my whole bias of holding short. I was sitting on a Lexus, had to book a cheap ass Civic instead.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 13 KB
  • #444,464
  • Oct 25, 2016 1:28pm Oct 25, 2016 1:28pm
Quoting Wdfx
{quote} I note on my chart (Broker IG.com) the flash crash candle low was at 2078 today we got as low as 2081. Do you think we either need to break through lower decisively or back above it at 2613 to put it aside?
i recall ThomsonReuters quoted a low of 1.1491 and FXPro and FXCM were around 1.2020 (ish) Darwinex was about 1.17xx....ergo where the f**k was/is the low??
  • #444,465
  • Oct 25, 2016 1:30pm Oct 25, 2016 1:30pm
Quoting Sohailshah
pending buy order 1 at 1.2096 and another one is at 1.2075 sl 1.2047
change sl to 1.2148
  • #444,466
  • Oct 25, 2016 1:34pm Oct 25, 2016 1:34pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} 80 to 90% or more of candles have a wick on both sides. If you look at yearly candlesticks, we rarely close on the high or low of the year. So yes, fading the major trend of the year in Q4 is actually a great strategy. I'd say its around an 80 or 90% probability we close the year at least 200-300 pips off the lows, and probably even higher than that. Seen this PA many times before... reversal becomes more probable if we close the week at these levels or higher. {image}
Yep, from recollection last year was the CAD, year before JPY and year before that the AUD
  • #444,467
  • Oct 25, 2016 1:37pm Oct 25, 2016 1:37pm
Quoting hilmy83
gonna close around 1.22. if it was around 1.21 hover, would've hold. Screwed with my whole bias of holding short. I was sitting on a Lexus, had to book a cheap ass Civic instead. {image}
I'm happy when I make a Civic in one day. That's like 2.5 mil a year if you did it everyday.

Hell I'm happy if I make $100 because that means I didn't lose.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #444,468
  • Oct 25, 2016 2:21pm Oct 25, 2016 2:21pm
Quoting hilmy83
there are trades when you close and it just keeps on going teasing you with all the profits you didn't make. and there are trades when you say "i'm gonna hold", then reverses on your ass, and teasing you with all the profits you should've made. my bias is 1.1950 area for the week. But i'm not sure my balls big enough to withstand too much up move. Fuck {image}
greediness kills that is what i have learnt, WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT...
we shall see 1.2030 soon but, pull back would be much in the jouney
  • #444,469
  • Oct 25, 2016 2:48pm Oct 25, 2016 2:48pm
sell gbp@current price
sl tp +_ 70
good luck...
joine me mql5.........
  • #444,470
  • Oct 25, 2016 4:08pm Oct 25, 2016 4:08pm
Stopped on last trade but never had a short No on the day chart draw a line as it is late now from the bottom to the bottom of today's candle if to breaks then we have to take a short so now any longs have to have a tight sl any bounce off that line would be a good long so let's see
  • #444,471
  • Oct 25, 2016 4:14pm Oct 25, 2016 4:14pm
Let's see end of month chart at mmmmm doji at 2250 ????
  • #444,472
  • Oct 25, 2016 4:32pm Oct 25, 2016 4:32pm
Just been watching the news Carney will go before he is saying . Strange he got it wrong by dropping the rate then inflation went higher . Now talk of future retirement ??? Do we think somebody has had a word in his ear ????? Will he walk or be shoved ????
  • #444,473
  • Oct 25, 2016 4:35pm Oct 25, 2016 4:35pm
Off to bed just put up s trade 1.218 sl 2170
  • #444,474
  • Edited 4:50pm Oct 25, 2016 4:38pm | Edited 4:50pm
yea I don't know so much with this yearly
this monthly candle will be a bearish in all probability since you had 3 candle consolidation then gap and fall


Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} 80 to 90% or more of candles have a wick on both sides. If you look at yearly candlesticks, we rarely close on the high or low of the year. So yes, fading the major trend of the year in Q4 is actually a great strategy. I'd say its around an 80 or 90% probability we close the year at least 200-300 pips off the lows, and probably even higher than that. Seen this PA many times before... reversal becomes more probable if we close the week at these levels or higher. {image}
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11 yearly USD (DFB).png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 11 month USD (DFB).png Size: 36 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #444,475
  • Oct 25, 2016 4:38pm Oct 25, 2016 4:38pm
Quoting Don96
{quote}
Lol, oh be strong bro.
  • #444,476
  • Oct 25, 2016 5:11pm Oct 25, 2016 5:11pm
yea that lows not trustworthy I've never heard or seen such a thing by so much


Quoting FXClarity
Of course the joker in the pack is the low of the flash crash candle on every time above 5 mins. This 'Mother Bar' (and it is 'one mother' of a candle) has different lows with almost every retail FX broker as such from a technical perspective cable is 'damaged goods' right now and needs to be handled carefully. Only when this candle breaks its high or low can the chart 'heal'
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example USD (DFB).png Size: 27 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #444,477
  • Oct 25, 2016 5:22pm Oct 25, 2016 5:22pm
Quoting Bones
yea that lows not trustworthy I've never heard or seen such a thing by so much {quote} {image}
 
My 4 cents - don't trade it.  Don't buy it,  ever.
 
1.2190 now.  Who's to say where the bottom is????
Did anybody trade Brexit before?
 
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #444,478
  • Oct 25, 2016 5:38pm Oct 25, 2016 5:38pm
Quoting Bones
yea that lows not trustworthy I've never heard or seen such a thing by so much {quote} {image}
No, me neither Bones and as a chart technician with OCD it bugs the hell out me.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM30.png Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.png Size: 50 KB
  • #444,479
  • Oct 25, 2016 5:38pm Oct 25, 2016 5:38pm
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} Â Whatever happened to this big-mouth? Â
God struck him after it dropped.

As was his own prophesy (Old Testament style)

Personally, I'm still bearish
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 26 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #444,480
  • Oct 25, 2016 5:46pm Oct 25, 2016 5:46pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} God struck him after it dropped. As was his own prophesy (Old Testament style) Personally, I'm still bearish {image} {image}
Bears are having all the fun and certainly an easier life..The best I've managed to scalp out is about 120 pips and typically its been 5 - 30 pips on longs...in the interests of transparency I got my ass handed to me on a plate in the FC and am down 8% this month.

Goodnight all
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