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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #442,361
  • Oct 4, 2016 4:08am Oct 4, 2016 4:08am
Quoting Wdfx
{quote} I think Cable is driven by sentiment this week. Technical analysis (which is predominately based on historic information) is very much a secondary consideration as we have not had a scenario like this before.
I cant believe Im saying this, but I agree. Its just so weird in that I have friends who have been holding buys for GBP,and soo many people, me included expected a buy. I have had to leave trades because the "stall" before coming back down.

I even left my trade with GBP/AUD, they gapped below my price, but gapped was filled and left it as soon as it went positive.
  • #442,362
  • Oct 4, 2016 4:10am Oct 4, 2016 4:10am
time to considder a bet on the rise of May's cat playing dead, let see how long this fella can keep it up paws in the air..
  • #442,363
  • Oct 4, 2016 4:18am Oct 4, 2016 4:18am
Quoting USD-charts
{quote} Worst thing is I really have no idea where the markets will go especially with non farm this week. Im stuck
You don't have to trade every day or week. Most large traders don't.
I just focus on what banks are looking at - and I get that from news headlines on Bloomberg

To go long - I would need to see the following:
a) Thersea May saying that the banks - are one thing that needs to be protected, EU leaders being more conciliatory or
b) a change in stance from the BOE saying that the UK is doing really well and we are not looking at further cuts or
c) A speech from the Fed that rates are off the cards. We have NFP this week - if this is a big miss, then the chances of a Fed rate increase are really low
- NFP and PCE (CPI) are the things that the Fed are looking at to raise rates. Will have a better idea on what the figures will be after Wednesday

To go short: Would look to sell rallies under present sentiment. We have PMI services tomorrow - which will probably beat expected
  • #442,364
  • Oct 4, 2016 4:36am Oct 4, 2016 4:36am
The UK economy is going to take a massive hit from Brexit. The effect on the Pound is already seen. This morning the manufacturing purchase manager's index is higher. It is an index, like the FTSE is an index. Why do you think both are up, while the Pound is down? If you can not work this out, you should not be trading real money.
Gone to a better place
  • #442,365
  • Oct 4, 2016 4:36am Oct 4, 2016 4:36am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} You don't have to trade every day or week. Most large traders don't. I just focus on what banks are looking at - and I get that from news headlines on Bloomberg To go long - I would need to see the following: a) Thersea May saying that the banks - are one thing that needs to be protected, EU leaders being more conciliatory or b) a change in stance from the BOE saying that the UK is doing really well and we are not looking at further cuts or c) A speech from the Fed that rates are off the cards. We have NFP this week - if this is a big miss,...
Spot on Fader .Bankers in London city are upset it seems as they didnt hear any good news to protect their jobs
  • #442,366
  • Oct 4, 2016 4:40am Oct 4, 2016 4:40am
40 more pips and i am done. first entry this month. need to focus to my strategy this month
  • #442,367
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:11am Oct 4, 2016 5:11am
Quoting nessus94
{quote} Buying volume + COT analysis showing its time to buy I was waiting this kind of new lows on daily to start buying for 1.34xx I may be wrong though, so good luck to all
I dont think your wrong.. but this is a fundamentally driven move.. so be careful catching the falling knife.These moves are directly related to the UK Conservative Conference (Government Party) where the realities of the cost and duration of implementing the Brexit decision are emerging, the division of factions in the government are highlighted.. with the possibility of further political instability, and the realisation that there will be no "sweetheart" deal when the uK finally exits.
And its not good. Worrying the market.
Yeah.. IMHO we will see a technical rally when this plays through but I dont see the fundementals changing much
  • #442,368
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:14am Oct 4, 2016 5:14am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} You don't have to trade every day or week. Most large traders don't. I just focus on what banks are looking at - and I get that from news headlines on Bloomberg To go long - I would need to see the following: a) Thersea May saying that the banks - are one thing that needs to be protected, EU leaders being more conciliatory or b) a change in stance from the BOE saying that the UK is doing really well and we are not looking at further cuts or c) A speech from the Fed that rates are off the cards. We have NFP this week - if this is a big miss,...
Shrewd analysis.
  • #442,369
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:20am Oct 4, 2016 5:20am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} You don't have to trade every day or week. Most large traders don't. I just focus on what banks are looking at - and I get that from news headlines on Bloomberg To go long - I would need to see the following: a) Thersea May saying that the banks - are one thing that needs to be protected, EU leaders being more conciliatory or b) a change in stance from the BOE saying that the UK is doing really well and we are not looking at further cuts or c) A speech from the Fed that rates are off the cards. We have NFP this week - if this is a big miss,...
I need to look into bloomberg. I have had a bad suspicion that non farm is the reason for such lows, as a possible set up to go long. This was before it went soo low.
  • #442,370
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:24am Oct 4, 2016 5:24am
Hi,
wish you all the best. Can it now move up to 2950? Pls give your expert opinion.
  • #442,371
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:33am Oct 4, 2016 5:33am
Mrs May going for hard line stance and posturing from a position of 'strength' ready for Brexit negotiations.

A new bargaining chip has come into play. If Britain are denied access to the single market then there is a threat of MI5/MI6 British intelligence no longer being shared with EU countries. This opening them up to more terrorist attacks. Thats some tough hard ball negotiation tactics.

I'm liking Mrs May so far with regards to Brexit, I think she is the right woman for the job.
  • #442,372
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:40am Oct 4, 2016 5:40am
Quoting el_duende
Mrs May going for hard line stance and posturing from a position of 'strength' ready for Brexit negotiations. A new bargaining chip has come into play. If Britain are denied access to the single market then there is a threat of MI5/MI6 British intelligence no longer being shared with EU countries. This opening them up to more terrorist attacks. Thats some tough hard ball negotiation tactics. I'm liking Mrs May so far with regards to Brexit, I think she is the right woman for the job.
Do you have a soure for this or is this just your opinion, seems highly unlikely
  • #442,373
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:42am Oct 4, 2016 5:42am
Quoting el_duende
Mrs May going for hard line stance and posturing from a position of 'strength' ready for Brexit negotiations. A new bargaining chip has come into play. If Britain are denied access to the single market then there is a threat of MI5/MI6 British intelligence no longer being shared with EU countries. This opening them up to more terrorist attacks. Thats some tough hard ball negotiation tactics. I'm liking Mrs May so far with regards to Brexit, I think she is the right woman for the job.
You said this like UK intelligence service is the only in Europe. Terrorist are under control. Other thing is goverments are interested in create fear for get more control about people making new laws for "fight" against terror
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #442,374
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:44am Oct 4, 2016 5:44am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} You said this like UK intelligence service is the only in Europe. Terrorist are under control. Other thing is goverments are interested in create fear for get more control about people making new laws for "fight" against terror
The Quiet American.....
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #442,375
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:46am Oct 4, 2016 5:46am
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} I dont think your wrong.. but this is a fundamentally driven move.. so be careful catching the falling knife.These moves are directly related to the UK Conservative Conference (Government Party) where the realities of the cost and duration of implementing the Brexit decision are emerging, the division of factions in the government are highlighted.. with the possibility of further political instability, and the realisation that there will be no "sweetheart" deal when the uK finally exits. And its not good. Worrying the market. Yeah.. IMHO...
Top analysis
Hope you post here more often
  • #442,376
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:53am Oct 4, 2016 5:53am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} The Quiet American.....
I'm Spaniard...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #442,377
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:59am Oct 4, 2016 5:59am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} I'm Spaniard...
It's a book by Graham Greene and it became a film.....To understand what the americans were doing in Vietnam in the 50s before they took over control of South Vietnam....

I haven't read the book but I saw the film.....really disturbing
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #442,378
  • Oct 4, 2016 6:00am Oct 4, 2016 6:00am
Quoting NorthernFX
{quote} Do you have a soure for this or is this just your opinion, seems highly unlikely
It was a veiled threat within Mrs Mays speech.
  • #442,379
  • Oct 4, 2016 6:01am Oct 4, 2016 6:01am
in forex nobody wrong or correct . if u sell maybe u scalping , if u buy maybe u long term trader.
Trade with knowledge
  • #442,380
  • Oct 4, 2016 6:06am Oct 4, 2016 6:06am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} You said this like UK intelligence service is the only in Europe. Terrorist are under control. Other thing is goverments are interested in create fear for get more control about people making new laws for "fight" against terror
Yes other countries have intelligence but UK intelligence is one of the best in the world.
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