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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #442,261
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:26pm Oct 3, 2016 3:26pm
Quoting Wdfx
{quote} Cheers Dean. I am on this forum to learn and not to prove that I am a great trader. Hopefully I will contribute at times as well.
the point is to learn, grow and make some cash. I would love to visit the UK on some cable money(maybe this short) and watch my fav soccer team(undisclosed). Personally, I have learnt a lot from this thread. I always question myself based on posts here.

PS: There is nothing wrong with being the best trader in the world. Think of all the good you could do
I'm high on trading, cant you tell?
  • #442,262
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:28pm Oct 3, 2016 3:28pm
Quoting Sammih
{quote} the point is to learn, grow and make some cash. I would love to visit the UK on some cable money(maybe this short) and watch my fav soccer team(undisclosed). Personally, I have learnt a lot from this thread. I always question myself based on posts here.
I am sure you will get to the UK at some point. If you make it as far north as Scotland then look me up
Striving for consistency
  • #442,263
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:45pm Oct 3, 2016 3:45pm
Quoting FXClarity
Any fresh short entries right here could be a dangerous play (imo) but who knows how far a trend will go... There is a post Brexit gap, unfinished business at 1.3160 and Sunday open gap on my charts still to fill..clearly a downtrend but is it reaching exhaustion? For me the mid timeframes are suggesting this may be the case and I've added into longs. 1st target 1.2920 (the easier part) 2nd target 1.3160 (more work involved)
like this post
  • #442,264
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:49pm Oct 3, 2016 3:49pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} The trend is your friend until the bend in the end, it's not always a bend sometimes it's a point, points hurt more than a bend
  • #442,265
  • Oct 3, 2016 4:01pm Oct 3, 2016 4:01pm
Cable close at worst level since 1985
  • #442,266
  • Oct 3, 2016 4:05pm Oct 3, 2016 4:05pm
I note my broker's spread on cable has moved to 5 pips. It is normally under 1 pip (IG)
Striving for consistency
  • #442,267
  • Oct 3, 2016 4:09pm Oct 3, 2016 4:09pm
Quoting Wdfx
{quote} I'm long too. In at 2850
Stopped out at BE 1.2850. Considering going back long at 2825... Watching for a while
Striving for consistency
  • #442,268
  • Oct 3, 2016 4:14pm Oct 3, 2016 4:14pm
Quoting Wdfx
I note my broker's spread on cable has moved to 5 pips. It is normally under 1 pip (IG)
You seem to have an excellent broker
  • #442,269
  • Oct 3, 2016 4:32pm Oct 3, 2016 4:32pm
GU still bearish?
  • #442,270
  • Oct 3, 2016 4:48pm Oct 3, 2016 4:48pm
Quoting kulme
GU still bearish?
Yes but is approaching the yearly low so good chance of a retrace.
  • #442,271
  • Oct 3, 2016 4:50pm Oct 3, 2016 4:50pm
Quoting Wdfx
I note my broker's spread on cable has moved to 5 pips. It is normally under 1 pip (IG)
Happens end of trading day
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #442,272
  • Oct 3, 2016 5:20pm Oct 3, 2016 5:20pm
Something a little different and interesting regarding Fib moves in cable.

The spreadsheet shows just over a years worth of data.

1st column shows the size of large moves in cable before price retraces at least 61.8%. This is based on daily charts and 4 hour charts.

2nd column shows total time the move took in 4 hour bars.

3rd column shows time of retrace to 61.8% in 4 hour bars.

I have highlighted in red the current move (627 pips and 114 '4 hour bars') and sorted the spreadsheet by total move size.

Purely from a statistical point of view we are nearing the larger extremes before a retrace would be expected. This would put 61.8 around 1.32 currently.

What is interesting is to move 627 pips from the 6th September it has taken 114 '4 hour' candles. This is the highest recorded and would suggest a retrace is imminent based on the data provided.


I am currently looking at 12780 as an interesting area. Yearly low and monthly S1 pivot.
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  • #442,273
  • Oct 3, 2016 5:31pm Oct 3, 2016 5:31pm
...it could be that the weekly & monthly divergence could force a retracement.
long ~1.2845 seems a risk worth, isn't it?
  • #442,274
  • Oct 3, 2016 5:36pm Oct 3, 2016 5:36pm
Quoting Forexcube
...it could be that the weekly & monthly divergence could force a retracement. long ~1.2845 seems a risk worth, isn't it?
No..you make a good call..keep going
  • #442,275
  • Oct 3, 2016 5:51pm Oct 3, 2016 5:51pm
Quoting el_duende
Something a little different and interesting regarding Fib moves in cable. The spreadsheet shows just over a years worth of data. 1st column shows the size of large moves in cable before price retraces at least 61.8%. This is based on daily charts and 4 hour charts. 2nd column shows total time the move took in 4 hour bars. 3rd column shows time of retrace to 61.8% in 4 hour bars. I have highlighted in red the current move (627 pips and 114 '4 hour bars') and sorted the spreadsheet by total move size. Purely from a statistical point of view we are...
Good work on this el_duende, thx very much. 114 4hr bars is a lot. To me this indicates a lot of congestion has occurred during the move since sept 6. I am interested why this would indicate A 61.8 retrace is imminent? I too think a retrace is coming but just not 61.8. It's just that I would have thought more rapid moves involving fewer bars would be more likely to produce a significant retrace such as 61.8 in order to rebalance the market. A breakout of the congestion zone above 2865 is likely to see a retest of this congestion, but why 61.8 retrace above this area?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #442,276
  • Oct 3, 2016 5:55pm Oct 3, 2016 5:55pm
The cable is largely undervalued and has been so in a long while. So a reversal is in the offing. The issue is we don't know when. We'll have to trade what we see.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #442,277
  • Edited 6:31pm Oct 3, 2016 6:20pm | Edited 6:31pm
This was a pattern of behaviour I noticed and wanted to investigate in cable. The result in every large move using 4 hour charts is eventually 61.8% retrace at least must be hit. Sometimes the retrace would do full 100% + but the key thing is every time 61.8 is hit.

I need to do more backtesting and get more data but its an interesting pattern and worth more study. Obviously we do not know when the 61.8 retrace occurs but with good money management we could enter strategic long entries

The 114 bars is purely statistics. At no point in a year has a move gone this long without a 61.8% retrace. This is not too say cable drops another 100 pips before the retrace occurs. Just probability and chance would say a retrace is close.

I thought same as you would fast moves give fast retraces. Would slower moves mean slower retraces etc, Sadly there is no pattern I can see to this.

I have excluded time period around Brexit as this was a special event. For fun Retrace on that would be around 1.42 lol
  • #442,278
  • Oct 3, 2016 6:21pm Oct 3, 2016 6:21pm
#GBPUSD looking for higher prices from here Long @ 1.2865 & 1.2825 / C 1.3026
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #442,279
  • Oct 3, 2016 6:34pm Oct 3, 2016 6:34pm
Quoting el_duende
This was a pattern of behaviour I noticed and wanted to investigate in cable. The result in every large move using 4 hour charts 61.8% retrace was hit every time. Sometimes the retrace would do full 100% + but the key thing is every time 61.8 was hit. I need to do more backtesting and get more data but its an interesting pattern and worth more study. Obviously we do not know when the retrace occurs but with good money management we could enter strategic long entries. The 114 bars is purely statistics. At no point in a year has a move gone this long...
Sorry, reading your stats post I thought you were just showing the large moves that produced a 61.8 retrace. All the large moves over 300 or so pips this year have retraced at least 61.8? That's quite surprising.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #442,280
  • Oct 3, 2016 6:41pm Oct 3, 2016 6:41pm
All new large moves retraced 61.8%. I should add however I ignore any retraces of 38% in a move as invalid.
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