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Trading Made Simple

  • #71,581
  • Oct 2, 2016 4:23am Oct 2, 2016 4:23am
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote} round numbers r so hard 2 deal wit ........ its hard 2 stay on target ........ u need a bit of luck now & again ........ end of MN all done ............ {image}
Hi Griffin.
Those losing trades are really taking the joy out of trading.
Have opened Trade Explorers if you want to take a peek. Set and forget orders and check every 1- 4 hours. Orders with trailers stop I do not worry about. If pullback's take them out, I take what the market gives me, if the set up still meet the TMS criteria then I place orders again or add on to. (always trying to building an equity millipede).
It is just a big mental block to close a losing trade - always hoping that the market moves back into profit. Had 17 orders that were losing. The market did go into profit and the longs one took 4 days. It is an mental block to give pips back to the broker and something I have to break.

Now in my book that is not trading it is gambling. If I took a buy order on GBPUSD with Brexit I would have been in a serious draw down. Zone Recovery Algorithm does not work either, just as risky as hoping that market will move into profit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XM MT4.png Size: 60 KB
  • #71,582
  • Oct 2, 2016 4:25am Oct 2, 2016 4:25am
Quoting RickM
{quote} I believe I know the answer to this one Emmanuel. You have the winning edge when you can feel the rhythm of the market and you find it easy to quess the direction of the move. Sometimes I am in that zone and it feels that the signals hit me in the head like a sledge hammer. However these moments of enlightments for me only seem to flicker on and off on for most trading days with some losses slowing down my process and bringing me back to reality. But holy cow, it does feel good.

Hi Rick,

To be able to feel the rhythm of the market and also be in sync with the market movements is very important. It is just one of many skills every trader must develop over a long time trading the different markets. that would lead top better trading results.

That traders will know when he has the WINNING EDGE but not from just this single skill alone.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #71,583
  • Oct 2, 2016 4:55am Oct 2, 2016 4:55am
Hi TMS folks,

I am trying my best to reply all the PMs I received last few days. I may ot be able to reply all but I will try later after my dinner.

But on top of my list is all the same questions about ME/ME trading with TMS 5-Method which some also from from another thread.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...56#post9171656

Before I start explaining all over again how to trade with ME/ME when we want to trade the higher TF like H4, D1 and also the W1.

please read these old posts and those attached pdfs so that you get a basic knowledge and understanding what ME/ME and Position Building is all about.

Money Management
Big E on using multiple entries in the CHS thread
Post#2622 , Post#2629 , Post#2771 and Post#2912
Money Management Strategy for TMS: Post#48,008
Using Multiple-Lot Positions to Improve trading TMS: Post#33,507
Entry and Exits: Post#24,918 Post#18,422 Post#19,617
Multiple Entries / Multiple Exits for Day chart trading: Post#58,726
How to Build a Position: Post#19,588

You first need to know that TMS is a simple trend following trading method. It work best when the maket is trend and also when the market is sideways wide ranging. TMS 5-Method will fail when the market goes in narrow range sideways. We cannot predict the market, therefore there will be time when after we made our initial entry, the market goes narrow range sideways, we must be prepared to cut our losses. To achieve win rate of 60% to 65% is possible and I have shown this since June 2015.
If you keep an open mind and want to learn, I'll be here to share and help you. But I cannot promised that everyone will make it to the level. It does not depend on me, it depends on you and you alone. If you are committed to spend 3 to 5 hours every day for the next 2 to 3 years, you will have very good chance to make to become a proficient trader. A few members have done it and achieved the result they want since 2013.
There are also other good trading threads here in FF where you can also learn from. You have other choices so long you keep an open mind.


regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #71,584
  • Oct 2, 2016 5:19am Oct 2, 2016 5:19am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} ....How is your trading going so far? Not sure if you hook up with any small trading group yet, if you are keen to join a small group of traders in your area, let me know. I can facilitate that. regards,
Hi Emm,

Thank you for your reply, I'm always impressed by your consistent trading result!!

I've PM you , please kindly take a look and insist me

Best regards,


Steven
  • #71,585
  • Oct 2, 2016 7:38am Oct 2, 2016 7:38am
Risk Management Big E’s style
Big E’ money management … high risk trading. Not everyone' type of risk appetite.
Big E risk 15% to 30% per trade with an account of $10k. Post# 66,525

post #2177 by adeforex, … good advice:

why Big E did not like trading the D1 chart and yet he mentioned that we should not be afraid to trade the D1 TF.
Post#4752 Post#302

so what when you trade D1 chart and market pull back 100 to 150 pips? you can use the pull back and build up your position. If you don't build position with proper %risk and position sizing, your trades will be in huge drawdown especially when you trade with huge risk of 15% to 30% per single entry. I cannot trade like Big E with that huge risk of 15% to 30% per single entry trade. I prefer to risk only 1% to 2% per position / basket for each currency pair I chose to trade.
Dividing 1% risk into 5 trades as multiple entries, my risk is only 0.2% per ME trade. My maximum drawdown should my basket of trades hit initial SL is only maximum 2%. That is the beauty in using position sizing what Dr Van Tharp is well known for.

It is up to you as the trader what you do with your hard-earned money is your business.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #71,586
  • Oct 2, 2016 7:55am Oct 2, 2016 7:55am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} GBPUSD Week 38 ME/ME trades closed. A slow moving week. Decided to close all trades before NY open and not risking price pullback when NY session open. Trade according to my trade plan made for this week. Total close 391 pips for this pair. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Week 38 MEME trades.png Size: 112 KB


If you look at my GBPUSD trades in Week 38 posted above, you will see on my H4 chart, the trades were in drawdown because the W1 pull back is usually much bigger. Depends on the depth of the retracement. You need to know the depth of possible retracement and determine your ME trade entries. Use the retracement and build up your basket position to full risk of 1% to 2%. If the retracement become too deep, I wil cut my losses. No bid deal since my risk is 1% to 2% maximum.
My overall risk was maximum 1% for every 5 ME trades.
My win rate is average 65% so I have 35% losses. With an Expectancy of 2.5 I make my money with less stress trading this way and with my ME/ME trade manager I only need to initiate the first ME1 trade entry. The rest of the trade management is done by my ME/ME EA trade manager. This leave me with plenty of time to do other things in my life. I need to check on my trades at minimum once per day or at ant time of the day when I want to.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #71,587
  • Edited 10:00am Oct 2, 2016 9:11am | Edited 10:00am
Or maybe the answer is that we'll know if we have the winning edge when we stop posting bs on FF and start doing what's really important: Making money by trading FX
  • #71,588
  • Oct 2, 2016 9:23am Oct 2, 2016 9:23am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Hi Griffin. Those losing trades are really taking the joy out of trading. Have opened Trade Explorers if you want to take a peek. Set and forget orders and check every 1- 4 hours. Orders with trailers stop I do not worry about. If pullback's take them out, I take what the market gives me, if the set up still meet the TMS criteria then I place orders again or add on to. (always trying to building an equity millipede). It is just a big mental block to close a losing trade - always hoping that the market moves back into profit. Had 17 orders...
hey Tekkies - IMO we must have faith in Big E's method - if we dont all is lost b4 u even trade ....... IMO it takes time 2 build the skill sure ....... i agree its gambling cause u r using the word 'hope' - i hope the trade will recover etc..... on ur demo account it would take alot less than Brexit 2 wipe u out <- totally ......... Zone Recovery Algorithms r just martingale really cause unless u double up u must go out of the zone more & more pips - double - triple etc - so u still have the death rattle wait'n 4 u - the way they delay this is 2 have huge accounts ..... blah blah ....... this is NOT TMS trade'n just like recovery system [ http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post9173287 ] r NOT TMS

Big E's money managment was simple - dont hold a losing trade - let PA & the TDI show u when 2 get out <- simple but not easy
  • #71,589
  • Oct 2, 2016 10:17am Oct 2, 2016 10:17am
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote}simple but not easy
It is never easy
  • #71,590
  • Oct 2, 2016 5:31pm Oct 2, 2016 5:31pm
Quoting Sielik
{quote} Hi Emmanuel7788 I have found very helpful 'Shi-channel' indicator. did you tried it? do you have any thoughts about it? Thanks for your help. {file}

Hi,

I don't use this or matter of fact any of the shi channel posted here in FF. There is no real need to when you can read the price action.
I look at the price swings like Big E did and I can plot the price channel using the price swings - every price swing high with a TDI cross down and the opposite price swing low with TDI cross up are of significance which we must pay attention to.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #71,591
  • Oct 2, 2016 5:46pm Oct 2, 2016 5:46pm
My watchlist pairs - GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCAD, GBPNZd and GBPJPy all open with big gaps down. These price gaps casue the TDI Gree to show very steep angle.
We should avoid such kind of TDI cross and bounce on all timeframes.

Give the market some time to settle down after those weekend price gaps.
How much time do we give the market to settle down?
That depends on the width of the price gap and the TDI period we use.

The APB/HA candles will not show us the price gaps. This is the disadvantage of the APB/HA.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Price gap and TDI.png Size: 33 KB


This one reason why Big E did not trade the NY Sunday open candles.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #71,592
  • Oct 2, 2016 5:53pm Oct 2, 2016 5:53pm
When we were doing our Big Picture Planning last night at usual London time 1500 Hr , a few new traders asked if we know the weekly pivots for this new Week 40 before NY Open.

My answer is yes and we do not need to wait for the indicator to show us the new weekly pivots for this new week.

See my chart below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD Week40 Calculated Fibo Pivots.png Size: 148 KB


We already know last week' High, Low and Close (on Friday). Use that can calculate the weekly pivots for this week. Just use a simple spreadsheet like MS Excel which I did.

below is what my H4 chart looks like use a Pivot indicator to plot the Weekly Pivots.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD Week40 H4 and pivots.png Size: 79 KB

Note how close the PP and its R1 R2 R3 and S1 S2 S3 are. this is due to the narrow range last week.
This week as usual I will be trading this pair but I use only the BN levels which show the BRN 00 and RN 50 price levels.
I stopped using pivots for quite long time. But I know many traders still use them.

Good Trading Folks.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #71,593
  • Oct 2, 2016 6:16pm Oct 2, 2016 6:16pm
Quoting AlansGS777
{quote} Reading your posts, you have said that each trader must find their own edge and also that the edge is not only one but a combination of factors: 1. Method: Find a trading method that gives you confidence and match your temperament. 2. Money Management Use a proven MM strategy and position sizing so you keep losses small and let profits run. 3. Consistency Have good skills reading PA and know how to apply it consistenly, also having a consistent approach in defining the market type so you can know when to buy, when to sell or when to stand...

Good post and valid points by Alans.
That trader who has the WINNING EDGE will know it himself when he has it. Others around him wont see it.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #71,594
  • Oct 2, 2016 6:36pm Oct 2, 2016 6:36pm
AUDUSD Week 40 Oct 3 to 7 ,

We need to see Lower High, then Lower Low. That is the market structure what many traders talk about.
remember some reliable reversal chart patterns - Head and Shoulders, Double Tops, Triple Tops, ... these are when bullish trend comes to an end.

Looking to sell this week, but it is not ready for sell now.
Today is bank holiday here in Sydney, perhaps I look for H1 trade during London session and slowly build up for this week.
Taking reversal trades are usually more risky and I am a rather conservative trader unlike Big E who is known to be an aggressive trader trading the reversal setups.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Week40 Oct3 to 7 BPP.png Size: 84 KB


Trade Well folks.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #71,595
  • Oct 2, 2016 6:45pm Oct 2, 2016 6:45pm
Off topics, very sorry.

A TMS trader based in Taiwan asked me if I can help him find some traders there to form a trading group to trade together.
Trading together and when you learn from the best, you will accelerate your learning.
If you are from Taiwan, please PM me and I will connect you all.
Thank you.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #71,596
  • Oct 2, 2016 8:03pm Oct 2, 2016 8:03pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
AUDUSD Week 40 Oct 3 to 7 , We need to see Lower High, then Lower Low. That is the market structure what many traders talk about. remember some reliable reversal chart patterns - Head and Shoulders, Double Tops, Triple Tops, ... these are when bullish trend comes to an end. Looking to sell this week, but it is not ready for sell now. Today is bank holiday here in Sydney, perhaps I look for H1 trade during London session and slowly build up for this week. Taking reversal trades are usually more risky and I am a rather conservative trader unlike Big...
Hi Emannuel,

From AU chart, it seems Higher High, Lower Low, not Lower High Lower Low. Could you share a bit more why your bias is to sell?

muyir
Trade your belief, trade like Emmanuel
  • #71,597
  • Oct 2, 2016 8:23pm Oct 2, 2016 8:23pm
Quoting muyir
{quote} Hi Emannuel, From AU chart, it seems Higher High, Lower Low, not Lower High Lower Low. Could you share a bit more why your bias is to sell? muyir

Hi Muyir,

You know my approach by now.
It is always top down -
Monthly chart:
start looking at MN chart since we have a month close, update all your Historical MN swing levels.

Weekly chart:
then look at W1 chart.
Look at the PA of both MN and W1 in relation to its 10EMA, is the PA above or below its 10EMA, how much pips distance of current market price to its 10EMA.

Daily chart:
Then look at the D1, what does the PA shows us? What does the TDI shows us?
Is the D1 in consolidation or near a consolidation zone?
What do the market volatility looks like at the moment?
Do wee see 'empty space' to the left of the D1 chart where we can sell into and 'let profits run'? {potetial of the trade}.
Look at the previous price action PPA around the BN price levels 00 and 50.
Be realistic if we intend to sell AUD and buy USD, will the market fundamental support a strong USD? when will that happen? for how long duration - days, weeks, etc. Always listen to the commodity market sentiments during the London sessions every day.

H4 chart:
Look at the previous reversal or the PPA and look for potential TMs 5-Method setup around the Bn levels and where the recent PPA were before.
Do our checklist questions 'quick check" according to Big E' post#647.
Look for chart patterns.


Otherwise:
If you are H1 and M15 very short term trader, you can trade both ways. You can buy and sell in the same trading day. Just take small target profit 20 to 40 pips for this pair.


regards,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Week 40 Mn re-test.png Size: 82 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #71,598
  • Oct 2, 2016 9:17pm Oct 2, 2016 9:17pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi caah, a non trading question for you. Is the tomato a fruit or a vegetable? regards,
Hi Emmanuel, based on my interruption tomato is a fruit- developed from fertilized ovary and seeds of a flowering plant.

You could also raise question - how tomatos are sliced?
  • #71,599
  • Oct 2, 2016 10:21pm Oct 2, 2016 10:21pm
Hi Emmanuel,

Where can I download the template that you posted 71,597 as I like to counter check the TMS 5 with candle stick.


Thank you in advance
  • #71,600
  • Oct 2, 2016 11:11pm Oct 2, 2016 11:11pm
Quoting matrocker
Hi Emmanuel, Where can I download the template that you posted 71,597 as I like to counter check the TMS 5 with candle stick. Thank you in advance

Hi,

those are known as Pipware minicharts by stratman.

see this recent post, follow those links:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post9081798

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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