Cable Update (GBPUSD)

GBPUSD and GBPJPY are the core focus for this week's trade. Trend Index for both, at the moment, remains bearish...

4 levels im picking up...

don't know yet which one is more valid...


1.2930 and 1.28990 match together... produces 1.37

1.2911 and 1.2888 sometimes work... these two produce a new HH at 1.3475...

ill get a chart later

Odds are very high that it will test 2930 before going higher... Gap above will not let it make LL...

I really don't have a complete detailed count since I am honestly still working on my EW, even HEW skills

I simply eyeballed the shape of the local final bearish wave only.. I have a rough non-detailed count for sometime back too in my head..

Here is a quick illustration that I made for the rough count that I have now..

Psychological support level is still at 1.3000, it is not clear any upside correction movements.

I do a weekly scan and analysis on the pairs on my watch list and I detail my weekly perspective on the ones I select for the week based on my swing trading style and techniques. This week I am bearish on cable. Here is why my outlook on cable this week is bearish.

On the weekly time frame, the pair has been in a downtrend mode since June 29, 2014. This was actually after about 50.0 Fib retracement of the downtrend which began on November 4, 2011 and never broke the market structure. Since then the market has been on the southward drive with limited corrective modes. All technicals favour further bearish play. On the daily time frame, price has been operating in a range spanning a weekly resistance zone and a weekly support zone since July 12, 2016. The most recent price moves have been towards the downside and the daily candlestick formed last week Friday was a relatively long bear candlestick which broke the lows of more than 23 candlesticks before it. This bearish move made a strong attempt to break the low of the range but failed. It would require further southwards move to take out that level and perhaps retest the swing low (1.28652) created on July 15, perhaps targeting the low (1.27910) of July 6. The technicals are in in support of a further southward push. On the 4-hourly time frame, which is my set-up time frame, the pair has been on a downtrend since September 6 after a corrective move to the upside began on August 15 which never breached the market structure on the weekly time frame.

If you are interested in my weekly technical outlook, visit weekly outlook.


I may be wrong. Trade safe.




KP

If I am right than we will see 3040 something high following that only bear move till 2930... Which would be buying area resulting the daily close 50-70 pip above the low...

A lot this is all going to boil down to what the Fed say on Wednesday

Looking at Stanley Fischer's interview, the main things that the Fed will look at are:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/26/feds-...-decision.html

Employment - NFP missed- but results not that bad- but unemployment up by .1%. Average earnings dropped a bit as well

Inflation- exceeded target this month- this is big one (Although this seemed to down to a huge increase in health care and an increase in housing costs). It seems a bit of an outlier.

The other economic indicators do not seem to be on Fischer's radar

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI grew at its lowest rate for 6 years- and GDP is on a gradual downward path
You would expect that with a poor economic outlook that he would take this into account
Certainly other members are taking are
A lot really depends on how they treat Friday's CPI figures

Lets see what Wednesday brings

Thanks Jecklom!

...there are some news, which could be get very important for cable for surprising movements (I think long movements)
first of all: UK is still in the EU and didn't leave the EU and maybe it will be very hard to leave, maybe impossible. And I think the government hopes for reasons why they have to stay without loosing their face.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7314306.html :
Eastern European countries ‘will veto any Brexit deal that diminishes rights of their citizens who live and work in UK’

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7314601.html :

Theresa May rejects claims by Donald tusk that Article 50 will be triggered as soon as February
Downing Street source says Mrs May did not specificy a month

and:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7314681.html

Tim Farron says Theresa May could be forced to hold a second EU referendum
Lib Dem leader says PM is a 'pragmatic' politician who could be swayed by public opinion

yup.... and then go back to the track...

Pound has the short balance and against it work is dangerous. Waiting rollback and after it connect to short.

Sell limit 3080
tp 2920

Now Long from the 130 300 zone see how it plays as of tomorrow and then onwards
The 4 hour chart is just about to confirm this so going with the flow again ..
It could make a new low today but thats position trading for you ..
Expecting the low for sure.

Good morning everyone. Short term I see the pull back continuing to around the 3065 /80, it may even get as far as 3100 area before the continuation of the downward trend this week. I think the eventual low will be around the 2860 level which is around the August and July lows before it climbs again.

I see the drawback up to around 3060/70 then continuation of the downward trend some point this week .

It it can take 90 then 3125 45