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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #439,801
  • Sep 12, 2016 11:16am Sep 12, 2016 11:16am
1.37 is a must target in this move... potentially may go as high as 1.41-42...
  • #439,802
  • Sep 12, 2016 11:23am Sep 12, 2016 11:23am
Quoting Bydyke
{quote} Apparently you don't believe in Bollinger Bands (BB). 3305 is at mid-BB/H4 from south. In most of the cases, a 50 pip drop from here is normal. If it wouldn't the candle patterns will direct. In effect, it's somewhat early to declare longs from here.
Here is my set up, excellent buy would be a break of swing high, triggered on retest of that resistance turned support
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I'm high on trading, cant you tell?
  • #439,803
  • Sep 12, 2016 11:32am Sep 12, 2016 11:32am
lol i like it ,good posts

Quoting Sammih
{quote} I never get married to positions. I can change my opinion in an instant. I have this motto that I say to myself every morning, (stolen from a certain book) "Good Morning. My name is Sammih, and I am a loser. I have it in me to do serious financial damage to my account" It puts me on my toes and does not allow me to get over confident with my set ups
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #439,804
  • Sep 12, 2016 11:32am Sep 12, 2016 11:32am
Quoting lolik79
{quote} time to sleep now... let the market decide for tomorrow... good night everyone....
I'm high on trading, cant you tell?
  • #439,805
  • Sep 12, 2016 11:33am Sep 12, 2016 11:33am
Quoting Sammih
{quote}
Have a good evening Sammih
Striving for consistency
  • #439,806
  • Sep 12, 2016 11:35am Sep 12, 2016 11:35am
Quoting pursuit_21
would be very interesting if price is at 1.3280 in an hour...
Doubt it will get there today, but tomorrow, i think a bullish day would make that a definite
I'm high on trading, cant you tell?
  • #439,807
  • Sep 12, 2016 11:48am Sep 12, 2016 11:48am
Quoting Fader123
Looking at Monday Last week Carney got a bit of a grilling over the cut in interest rates- he basically said that he will do whatever is necessary

Haledine (dove) this weekend said that they are not just looking at one thing - but other measures. This is a slightly less dovish tone and from one of the main doves at the BOE

Laura Bairnaird is due to speak- (dove) later on today

Cable has retraced 50% of its move down

Thinking of going long

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Ideal trade today- BOE member more hawkish
Bairnaird expected to be dovish -
And we had a 50% pull-back from last week to S1 daily pivot

Everything stacked
75 pips so far

Tomorrow should be good
  • #439,808
  • Sep 12, 2016 12:19pm Sep 12, 2016 12:19pm
Have had a thought- if all this seems gobbledygook to some people

Central Banks determine interest rates
Interest rate expectations are the number one thing that drives currencies

If a central banker talks about raising interest rates - their currency will in general appreciate

When a central banker is said to be dovish - this means that when they make speeches, they are going to talk about not raising interest rates, keeping them on hold or even cutting them
When a central banker is said to be hawkish - this is basically the reverse

Bairnarid is talking at the moment - and you can see Cable move based on what she is saying.

Hope that this helps
  • #439,809
  • Sep 12, 2016 12:50pm Sep 12, 2016 12:50pm
3333 long . target 3374 08 highs
  • #439,810
  • Edited 1:37pm Sep 12, 2016 1:23pm | Edited 1:37pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} So price went up in short covering mode, leaving behind a lot of single pips in the A-B periods, tested Friday preUS high, found nothing (for now) and went down to correct the single pips, right to the well known 3300 round zone just above the main POC. From here, if it retraces back upwards it will be weak. If instead it will go down some more (below the POC) it could from there make a new stronger attempt up. [...]
Quoting Lock
[...]Now current d period low is hb of the pit session and round number 3300. So it is very weak. All this does not mean that price cannot go higher form here. The important thing is to know what is going on and who are the participants ruling this market.
Please note:
H period went up to friday pit session high, but it did it following the move started from the very weak D period low at half back (around 3300). So just above friday pit session high there was not enough force to continue, considering those who were carrying the price higher. At this point in time H period went down and I period continued down to take out the D period weak low and then, only then, price went up again to Friday pit session high. Now with volume and (more) force.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #439,811
  • Sep 12, 2016 1:43pm Sep 12, 2016 1:43pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} Please note: H period went up to friday pit session high, but it did it following the move started from the very weak D period low at half back (around 3300). So just above friday pit session high there was not enough force to continue, considering those who were carrying the price higher. At this point in time H period went down and I period continued down to take out the D period weak low and then, only then, price went up again to Friday pit session high. Now with volume and (more) force.

Now we have a poor high for current pit session and we got the friday preUS session poor high at 33595.
After that we have the GB poor high at 3421, followed immediately by the Tokyo poor high at 3424. Finally we have the Tuesday pit session poor high at 34445. This does not mean we are going to take them out right now. It means that all these weak references put togheter in a row create an exponential odds in order to continue higher in the next price activity (tomorrow and following days hypothetically).
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #439,812
  • Sep 12, 2016 1:52pm Sep 12, 2016 1:52pm
Hey guys,

I'm new here, made some money scalping on brexit day and switched to swing trading in an attempt to not loose all of them lol

I'm too noob to post any recommendations but I've been following you everyday and really appreciate your inputs, thank you!

Currently long 3305 SL 3280 TP 3374 or 3445
  • #439,813
  • Sep 12, 2016 2:45pm Sep 12, 2016 2:45pm
Quoting scana
Hey guys, I'm new here, made some money scalping on brexit day and switched to swing trading in an attempt to not loose all of them lol I'm too noob to post any recommendations but I've been following you everyday and really appreciate your inputs, thank you! Currently long 3305 SL 3280 TP 3374 or 3445
Hi! Welcome. Just share your ideas and ask questions from fellow members. Trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #439,814
  • Sep 12, 2016 4:22pm Sep 12, 2016 4:22pm
Waiting for the move to be completed.
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  • #439,815
  • Sep 12, 2016 6:33pm Sep 12, 2016 6:33pm
Quoting Sammih
{quote} Doubt it will get there today, but tomorrow, i think a bullish day would make that a definite
May take a bit longer than that even. I was just musing that sometimes certain groups will use 'low' volume days to improve their positions or hunt for stops -- at that point, it felt a bit like one of those days.

That being said, with PA where it is at -- I'm still somewhat biased for a sideways ranging cable. If I was to wager, I would put price in the 1.3390 - 1.2850 range still at the end of the month.

Personally I think retail traders (like myself) have a tendency to over estimate how quickly the market forms trends -- especially when there is confirmation bias as to how they are played out in classical TA -- seems better for my trading to automatically assume that price 'may' tend towards the targets that TA (both mean reverting and momentum) plots out...but its going to be messy, drawn out and difficult getting there.

e.g. price action for the first 6 months

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  • #439,816
  • Sep 12, 2016 8:28pm Sep 12, 2016 8:28pm
Quoting Fader123
Have had a thought- if all this seems gobbledygook to some people Central Banks determine interest rates Interest rate expectations are the number one thing that drives currencies If a central banker talks about raising interest rates - their currency will in general appreciate When a central banker is said to be dovish - this means that when they make speeches, they are going to talk about not raising interest rates, keeping them on hold or even cutting them When a central banker is said to be hawkish - this is basically the reverse Bairnarid is...
Great info, thanks for the thoughtful post...
Onwards and upwards...
  • #439,817
  • Sep 12, 2016 8:34pm Sep 12, 2016 8:34pm
#GPUSD lost motion.... pound below 1.3325 strong hold.......the next few days with a possible short term sell off...... keep watch on 9-13,14 if pound continues higher then watch out for 9-16
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #439,818
  • Sep 12, 2016 11:45pm Sep 12, 2016 11:45pm
Quoting pursuit_21
{quote} May take a bit longer than that even. I was just musing that sometimes certain groups will use 'low' volume days to improve their positions or hunt for stops -- at that point, it felt a bit like one of those days. That being said, with PA where it is at -- I'm still somewhat biased for a sideways ranging cable. If I was to wager, I would put price in the 1.3390 - 1.2850 range still at the end of the month. Personally I think retail traders (like myself) have a tendency to over estimate how quickly the market forms trends -- especially when...
I get your point. Unlike you however, I'm bullish on this market, I think 3420 could be hit today. I'm using daily range for the pair to make that estimation, I think the lowest we could get today without turning bearish for the day is 3300. That makes 3400 a real possibility on the upside.

Quoting scana
Hey guys, I'm new here, made some money scalping on brexit day and switched to swing trading in an attempt to not loose all of them lol I'm too noob to post any recommendations but I've been following you everyday and really appreciate your inputs, thank you! Currently long 3305 SL 3280 TP 3374 or 3445
Welcome m8, share your ideas, we'd love to read them

I'm bullish today. Here is a fine strategy I sometimes use on break outs. When price breaks out of previous days range, I use the previous day as the range for fib and aim for betwwen 138-161 of previous days range, just as I have done today.

Price has reacted perfectly to the lower trendline of the channel and is now headed to look for the upper trendline.

Two orders in today, one at market 3337, one limit at 3305 to buy. Target 3410

Quoting pointlessfor
3333 long . target 3374 08 highs
in around here too. I think 3700 is within sight in a few days time
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I'm high on trading, cant you tell?
  • #439,819
  • Sep 13, 2016 12:07am Sep 13, 2016 12:07am
up 20p
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  • #439,820
  • Sep 13, 2016 12:25am Sep 13, 2016 12:25am
Quoting Sammih
{quote}Here is a fine strategy I sometimes use on break outs. When price breaks out of previous days range, I use the previous day as the range for fib and aim for betwwen 138-161 of previous days range, just as I have done today. Price has reacted perfectly to the lower trendline of the channel and is now headed to look for the upper trendline. Two orders in today, one at market 3337, one limit at 3305 to buy. Target 3410 {image}
Good morning Sammih, That is an interesting strategy. What percentage wins to you get with it?
Striving for consistency
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