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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #3,361
  • Sep 6, 2016 9:08am Sep 6, 2016 9:08am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} {image}
  • #3,362
  • Edited Sep 7, 2016 4:23am Sep 6, 2016 9:18am | Edited Sep 7, 2016 4:23am
Wednesday
4:30
09/07/16
AU GDP growth HOT!
(AU GDP), Australia, the AUDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 40.00 points in the first minute after the release.
40% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

RBA expected to leave interest rates unchanged. September 18 will come to the helm Philip Lowe, and that's when you can expect a "heat": the new head of the RBA according to his sayings safely look at the probability of additional stimulus. And this is not surprising.
After a sluggish Non-Farm Payrolls markets still continue to believe in the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in September to 25% in December to 50%.
In such a situation for us quite beneficial divergence RBA monetary policy and the Fed, besides the growth of AUD against the dollar - not to hand the Australian regulator - it is the market understands.
You can come to the conclusion that the negative surprise publication of quarterly GDP in Australia, where the data can be lower than the forecasts will be accepted by the market better than its positive dynamics. We dare to suggest that the risks for sale is less and vice versa.

Please note that the likelihood of significant delays on the part of providers of data is essential for this indicator. Follow risks.

Wednesday
10:30
09/07/16
SE Interest
(SE Interest Rate), Sweden, EURSEK
Average reaction when trigger 50.00 points in the first minute after the release.
30% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Current interest rate of -0.5%. 20 out of 21 economists believe that the interest rate will remain unchanged. It is also contemplated that the QE volume remains without changes. Inflation is gradually approaching the target level Riksbank, which also does not add any additional arguments in the direction of change in the current monetary policy.
Note the exotic spreads that really differ from standard only zeros, and they feature consists only in the fact that the major cause of the spread of publication growth in liquidity imbalances at the moment. Be careful with the knocking stops, although the chances of a signal at this time is not much.

Wednesday
11:30
09/07/16
GB Industrial production
(GB Industrial Production), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

It is not clear, but the reaction may be at a sufficient deviation.
Possible conflict between the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production

Wednesday
17:00
09/07/16
CA overnight rate BC
(CA Overnight Rate), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Canadian non-farm, respectively, and is likely to "save" the Bank of Canada at this time. Changing interest rates is not expected, and the driver of the market can be an accompanying protocol.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,363
  • Sep 6, 2016 4:42pm Sep 6, 2016 4:42pm
Hi guys. Good thread!
I was wondering; how do you know which pairs to trade on news events?
  • #3,364
  • Edited 5:54pm Sep 6, 2016 5:33pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting nondisclosure00
Hi guys. Good thread! I was wondering; how do you know which pairs to trade on news events?
Excellent question. I'm curious too. Actually, for instance on a USD new, I trade all USD pairs, except some like USDRUB, which seem not affected. This is not very efficient as I must divide the risk equally, and some pairs are very affected, some not that much. Very good if someone could give some directions.
  • #3,365
  • Sep 6, 2016 6:17pm Sep 6, 2016 6:17pm
Is the EURSEK news event a very volatile time? Can we expect alot of whiplash and a high spread?

Wednesday
10:30
09/07/16
SE Interest
(SE Interest Rate), Sweden, EURSEK
Average reaction when trigger 50.00 points in the first minute after the release.
30% probability trades.
HMSR
  • #3,366
  • Sep 6, 2016 7:58pm Sep 6, 2016 7:58pm
Quoting nondisclosure00
Hi guys. Good thread! I was wondering; how do you know which pairs to trade on news events?
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,367
  • Sep 6, 2016 8:07pm Sep 6, 2016 8:07pm
Quoting Hmsr
Is the EURSEK news event a very volatile time? Can we expect alot of whiplash and a high spread? Wednesday 10:30 09/07/16 SE Interest (SE Interest Rate), Sweden, EURSEK Average reaction when trigger 50.00 points in the first minute after the release. 30% probability trades.
If you've never tried to trade the news (EURSEK), it is better to observe visually without conducting transactions.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,368
  • Sep 6, 2016 8:20pm Sep 6, 2016 8:20pm
Quoting nondisclosure00
Hi guys. Good thread! I was wondering; how do you know which pairs to trade on news events?

Hello fellow traders. This is how I match my pairs when trading news. First you want to know the long term stance of a countries central bank whether they are near an interest rate hike or trying to depreciate their own currency. They will have their own stance as bearish, bullish or neutral. Once the picture is clear like the USD is bullish and the Yen is Bearish, you can start to know which pairs to trade. On the AUD GDP release tonight I plan to have 2 charts up AU and AJ. I will sell if its bad data against the dollar and buy if its good data against the yen.

Hope this helps!
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #3,369
  • Sep 6, 2016 8:27pm Sep 6, 2016 8:27pm
Quoting vvFish
Wednesday 10:30 09/07/16 SE Interest (SE Interest Rate), Sweden, EURSEK

Hey, vvFish.

Strangly this news is absent on FF calendar and has low impact on myfxbook calendar. Maybe there is a better calendar somewhere?


Average reaction when trigger 40.00 points in the first minute after the release. --- could you please explain what this phrase means, I'm new to this.
  • #3,370
  • Sep 6, 2016 10:12pm Sep 6, 2016 10:12pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_21.png Size: 27 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,371
  • Sep 6, 2016 10:36pm Sep 6, 2016 10:36pm
Quoting Botan626
{quote} Hey, vvFish. Strangly this news is absent on FF calendar and has low impact on myfxbook calendar. Maybe there is a better calendar somewhere? Average reaction when trigger 40.00 points in the first minute after the release. --- could you please explain what this phrase means, I'm new to this.
http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex_...ope%2FHelsinki
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,372
  • Sep 6, 2016 11:47pm Sep 6, 2016 11:47pm
Quoting vvFish
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Ummm, I know that. But that's not what I'm looking for. The calendar lists the individual currencies; not which PAIRS that contain those currencies to play.
  • #3,373
  • Sep 7, 2016 12:17am Sep 7, 2016 12:17am
Quoting nondisclosure00
{quote} Ummm, I know that. But that's not what I'm looking for. The calendar lists the individual currencies; not which PAIRS that contain those currencies to play.
Trading is better on the base currency.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,374
  • Sep 7, 2016 2:33am Sep 7, 2016 2:33am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_22.png Size: 24 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,375
  • Sep 7, 2016 2:35am Sep 7, 2016 2:35am
My trade, lucky enough to have entered hours earlier... I did not profit from the news spike, I was trading the price action, ,y stop loss there got triggered.

I only survived this trade because of my early entry, the spread for me at one time was 1500 as opposed to the normal 100. I will not be trading this currency for news in the future...




EURSEK
Attached Image
HMSR
  • #3,376
  • Sep 7, 2016 3:35am Sep 7, 2016 3:35am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_23.png Size: 30 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,377
  • Sep 7, 2016 4:34am Sep 7, 2016 4:34am
BoC To Stay The Course; USD/CAD Dips A Buying Opportunity

Q2 GDP fell by 1.6% QoQ, confirming a significant slowdown in growth even after accounting for the impact of the Fort McMurray wildfire. Without the updated macroeconomic projections we believe the BoC will largely stay the course at the September meeting.
There should be some acknowledgement of an even Q2 GDP result than the central bank had been expecting but the BoC will wait until the October monetary policy report before considering any changes to the forward guidance or changing its assessment that the “overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate”.
Going forward the BoC’s margin for error is quite small in our view. With potential growth of about 1.5% it will take a GDP expansion of well above 3% during the second half of the year to make any meaningful impact on reducing the output gap. This means that BoC may need to change its message in October if incoming data disappoints.
Nearterm volatility in USD/CAD is still mainly driven by external factors and with crude likely to remain under USD50/bl we continue to see dips in USD/CAD below 1.30 as buying opportunities.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #3,378
  • Sep 7, 2016 9:03am Sep 7, 2016 9:03am
Nice !!!!!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM1.png Size: 64 KB
  • #3,379
  • Sep 7, 2016 9:09am Sep 7, 2016 9:09am
Quoting vvFish
{image}
vvFish who do you use as your broker??
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #3,380
  • Sep 7, 2016 9:11am Sep 7, 2016 9:11am
GUys, the rate was .5% yet USDCAD went up. In the past when this occurred, it would go down. ie Cad got stronger. So why in this case did the CAD get weaker with the same result? was it the IVEY PMI?
HMSR
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