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How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value

  • #341
  • Edited 9:53am Sep 5, 2016 9:41am | Edited 9:53am
I want to use this post to sum up everything that I got so far and I hope Dennis will point out what I got wrong and what is correct.

So we have X key elements: Initial Balance (IB), Central Pivot Range (CPR) and Pivot Points (PP).

IB - the width of the range is an indicator of the type of trading day ahead; can also be used to range breakout trading if its a narrow range

CPR - relationship between two-day CPR is an indicator of the market's direction for the current day. One also has to take into account the position of the opening candle with regard to yesterday's and today's CPR. Alternatively, Value Range can be used instead of CPR.

PP - support and resistance lines are great entry points as they usually reflect areas where other traders have placed their stops. Pivot filtering: in bullish setups use S1, R1 and R2, while in bearish setups use R1, S1 and S2.

-----------------

One question, though. Gap & Fade movement - should be used with just one of the three key elements or can be safely applied to all of them?
  • #342
  • Sep 5, 2016 10:03am Sep 5, 2016 10:03am
Quoting v2vboni
{quote} Please see the attached screenshot. I plotted the IB box on a M15 chart in order to identify Highs & Lows within the said session time frame. #1 (During Asian Session: NY closed/Sydney-Tokyo Open) #2 (During London/EU Session: Sydney/Tokyo Open - Sydney-Tokyo Closed I think, you have a freedom on how many candle bars you would like to plot your highs & lows (moderate or aggressive approach) {image}
Hi Boni, can you explain how you draw those triangles or gaps?
  • #343
  • Sep 5, 2016 10:25am Sep 5, 2016 10:25am
Quoting vwap
{quote} Nice going Dennis, GU looks like another bounce off of TC/CPR and possible break of IB high (UK Sess) again for another scalp north.

yes theres ur bounce number 2 typical range day gu filled the Gap twice
  • #344
  • Sep 5, 2016 10:27am Sep 5, 2016 10:27am
...continuation NY Session Remains after London/EU Closed
USDCAD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 31 KB
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #345
  • Sep 5, 2016 10:28am Sep 5, 2016 10:28am
Quoting kef2138
I want to use this post to sum up everything that I got so far and I hope Dennis will point out what I got wrong and what is correct. So we have X key elements: Initial Balance (IB), Central Pivot Range (CPR) and Pivot Points (PP). IB - the width of the range is an indicator of the type of trading day ahead; can also be used to range breakout trading if its a narrow range CPR - relationship between two-day CPR is an indicator of the market's direction for the current day. One also has to take into account the position of the opening candle with...

Excellent but with CPR you can use rolling days multiple days not just 2 to gauge sentiment
  • #346
  • Sep 5, 2016 10:31am Sep 5, 2016 10:31am
Quoting v2vboni
...continuation NY Session Remains after London/EU Closed USDCAD {image}
Excellent market fills the Gap on a fade. Those are the Gaps we are talking about...
  • #347
  • Sep 5, 2016 10:42am Sep 5, 2016 10:42am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_JPY_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 54 KB


AJ - I will send this chart again with some descriptions in a while. But look at it Deeply! Ask yourself what place you will enter, Can you trade that? Are we over Extended 6 Days up ?


Those are daily CPR each width is one day

then on the right you can see The big time frame pivs. Septembers Weekly and Monthly
  • #348
  • Edited 11:17am Sep 5, 2016 10:57am | Edited 11:17am
Quoting vwap
{quote} Hey Dennis, reading through p.87 in Secrets of a Pivot Boss book, please can I ask you a quick question: for example today on AUDUSD the market opened above Fridays pivot range, inside its price range and in value, so this would make todays AUDUSD is the first relationship; In Range and In Value (Price opens within range and value, market sentiment has not changed from the prior session.) Please do I understand the type of relationship correctly? Thank you in advance!
Your right about price. However on a rolling Relationship. i.e CPR! This is why its so predictive! The CPR opened as Higher Value preceded with a inside range open becoming a move to the upside. And on Friday that move was filled on a fade back to the CPR on the PP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 40 KB
  • #349
  • Edited 11:14am Sep 5, 2016 10:58am | Edited 11:14am
Quoting angelofx
{quote} Hi Boni, can you explain how you draw those triangles or gaps?
If I am not mistaken, I hope D can correct me after these as I am still a student... learning while doing it.

1) First set your pivots: daily open (session dependent) and weekly pivots
2) Check current price level if it is inside value or outside value with respect to the so called CPR. -- please ask D about these one.
3) Is the price open up below/above the pivots?
a) If Bullish level check and verify your S1 holds a strong resistance or above it (like previous session highs/lows)
b) If Bearish check if your R1 holds a strong support level or below it (like previous session low/highs)
4) If price breaks above or below your drawn IB box, then use your Daily or Weekly Pivots in order for you to perceive your Buy or Sell entry with set TPs & SLs
5) GAPS triangle drawn... it is easier to draw a triangle than a cup. Just imagine a cup or a funnel in upward (gaps filled) or inverted (faded down).
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #350
  • Sep 5, 2016 11:04am Sep 5, 2016 11:04am
Is there an existing CPR indicator for MT4?

.... or maybe there's a similar type of indicator already out there that I (we) don't know of.
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #351
  • Sep 5, 2016 11:15am Sep 5, 2016 11:15am
Quoting v2vboni
{quote} If I am not mistaken, I hope D can correct me after these as I am still a student... learning while doing it. 1) First set your pivots: daily open (session dependent) and weekly pivots 2) Check current price level if it is inside value or outside value with respect to the so called CPR. -- please ask D about these one. 3) Is the price open up below/above the pivots? a) If Bullish level check and verify your S1 holds a strong resistance or above it (like previous session highs/lows) b) If Bearish check if your R1 holds a strong support level...
If I am not mistaken, I hope D can correct me after these as I am still a student... learning while doing it.

1) Set your pivots if daily open (session dependent) and weekly pivots
EST (UTC -5) as II am pivot purist

2) Check current price level if it is inside value or outside value with respect to the so called CPR. -- please ask D about these one.
Correct

3) Is the price open up below/above the pivots?
This is a big subject will cover it as we move on. The close price of a candle close above or below will became apparent when we dig deeper. We are Generally, but will go deeper later are looking for a fad back to agreed value. Price normally

a) If Bullish level check and verify your S1 holds a strong resistance or above it (like previous session highs/lows)
yes gap and fade the move

b) If Bearish check if your R1 holds a strong support level or below it (like previous session low/highs)
as above

4) If price breaks above or below your drawn IB box, then use your Daily or Weekly Pivots in order for you to perceived Buy or Sell entry with set TP & SL
Yes

5) GAPS triangle drawn... it is easier to draw a triangle than a cup. Just imagine a cup or a funnel in upward (gaps filled) or inverted (faded down).
Yes. The cup and Handle. Is actually something else of importance, will cover later
  • #352
  • Sep 5, 2016 11:17am Sep 5, 2016 11:17am
Quoting v2vboni
Is there an existing CPR indicator for MT4? .... or maybe there's a similar type of indicator already out there that I (we) don't know of.
will try to sort one out....
  • #353
  • Sep 5, 2016 11:21am Sep 5, 2016 11:21am
Quoting Dennis1468
{image} AJ - I will send this chart again with some descriptions in a while. But look at it Deeply! Ask yourself what place you will enter, Can you trade that? Are we over Extended 6 Days up ? Those are daily CPR each width is one day then on the right you can see The big time frame pivs. Septembers Weekly and Monthly
I'll give it a go.

Judging by today's high and low, either TC or BC will be at roughly 78.600. Depending on the closing price, the CPR will either be Higher Value or Overlapping Higher Value, which are both signals for bullishness.

Today's fade movement closed the gap formed on Friday, but has in itself formed another gap. So I'd say a buy at the breakout of a narrow IB to target the monthly R1 and then a sell to catch the fade movement (either towards tomorrow's PP or S1).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_JPY_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 112 KB
  • #354
  • Edited 11:37am Sep 5, 2016 11:23am | Edited 11:37am
Quoting angelofx
{quote} Hi Boni, can you explain how you draw those triangles or gaps?

He is only drawing them so that you can train your eyes to them. you dont have to draw them. What your trying to see is the market swing high from Value CPR or pivot and then fade back. Your entry is to buy at lowest Value around the CPR or pivot. We call this buing the fade. So if Fade is Short, We are going long at value. That normally means on TC around the CPP.

So market gaped up and faded back. Your entry was long on the fade. The initial move up is like your confirmation your in a bull market,

So

Market Gaped up - My Confirmations to go long
Market fade Back - My entry to go long on the fade - (Market timing)

Look at below GU chart

Market Gaped up up 3 times with 2 fades current gap up in progress. Your Entry is on the Fade back so you catch the gap back up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_USD_15 Mins_snapshottoday.png Size: 33 KB
  • #355
  • Sep 5, 2016 11:52am Sep 5, 2016 11:52am
Hi Dennis,

Like your thread, your explanation give me a whole new perspective into trading, it make me realize all those "why the hell it happen" scenarios. Hope to learn from you. Took out all the indicators and put only what is necessary and gonna demo trade it to gain confident. Cheers and thanks for all the guidance.

@Boni There is an indicator called Pivot Zone for MT4(a search online should lead you there), I believe it does what CPR do using PP and the range. (Hope i got that right)

Fire
  • #356
  • Sep 5, 2016 12:07pm Sep 5, 2016 12:07pm
Something like that, Boni? I modify from a pivot indicator here at FF and quite close to what Dennis has. Didn't remove anything from the original indi, so it may not be the most efficient but it is highly customisable which is good. Day Pivot, Yesterday High Low line, etc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CPR_indicator_GU.PNG Size: 41 KB
  • #357
  • Sep 5, 2016 12:23pm Sep 5, 2016 12:23pm
Firefries

Apparently this is the formula for a Pivot Range.

Pivot range or pivot zone is price range which we can calculate using this formulas :
Pivot2 = (High + Low) / 2
Difference = |Pivot – Pivot2|
Pivot High = Pivot + Difference
Pivot Low = Pivot – Difference

Pivot High to Pivot Low is the Pivot Zone
Example :
Pivot = (High + Low + Close) / 3 =(1.31 + 1.3 + 1.308)/3=1,306
Pivot2 = (High + Low) / 2 = 1,305
Difference = |Pivot – Pivot2| = 1,306-1,305=10 pips
Pivot High = Pivot + Difference = 1,306+10 pips = 1.307
Pivot Low = Pivot – Difference = 1,306 – 10 pips = 1,305
Pivot zone is from 1.305 till 1.307
  • #358
  • Sep 5, 2016 12:33pm Sep 5, 2016 12:33pm
That is how i got the CPR drawn.
And i got the IB too for MT4, again modifying from Sessions(auto) from FF too.
Question is, do i need to inform the original creator before posting? Or as long as i reference where it is from?
PS: I am not a coder, just remembering what i learnt more than 20 yrs back. :nerd:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: both_indicator.PNG Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: IB_indicator.PNG Size: 34 KB
  • #359
  • Sep 5, 2016 12:49pm Sep 5, 2016 12:49pm
Firefries

Once posted its Ok to change as long as you reference the creator. They look great.
  • #360
  • Sep 5, 2016 12:59pm Sep 5, 2016 12:59pm
Quoting FireFries
That is how i got the CPR drawn. And i got the IB too for MT4, again modifying from Sessions(auto) from FF too. Question is, do i need to inform the original creator before posting? Or as long as i reference where it is from? PS: I am not a coder, just remembering what i learnt more than 20 yrs back. :nerd: {image} {image}
Nice one! please share to us

thanks
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
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