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  • #161
  • Edited 10:39am Jul 26, 2016 5:27am | Edited 10:39am

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401



►ITA.- Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica.
►ENG.- US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators.


AIM OF NOTE.
►ITA.- Scopo della presente nota e' ottenere una serie di parametri chiave per valutare oggettivamente la probabilita' di vittoria di uno dei due candidati alle prossime presidenziali USA.
Il metodo utilizzato risulta il medesimo di quello impiegato nella formulazione della previsione BrExit vs. BRemain (vedi #1):
-) Analisi delle curve componenti dei sondaggi (favorevoli a Clinton; favorevoli a Trump; spread o differenza Clinton vs. Trump);
-) Analisi degli Indicatori di Incertezza Politica, sia per gli USA sia per gli equity-markets.
I dati utilizzati sono quelli del polls tracker di RealClearPolitics {#2}.
►ENG.- The purpose of this note is to obtain a group of objective parameters to assess the odds of winning of the two next US presidential candidates.
Method used is the same of the previous study on BrExit vs. BRemain (see #1).
-) Analysis of curve components of polls (favorable to Clinton; favorable to Trump; spread Clinton vs. Trump);
-) Analysis of Uncertainty Policy Indicators, both for USA and for equity-markets.
Data from polls-tracker of RealClearPolitics are used {#2}.

DATA.
►ITA.- Clinton mostra una costante ed importante perdita di consensi da luglio 2015 a luglio 2016 (perdita di circa 10% dallo start al minimo dei consensi).
Trump mostra un rapido incremento dei consensi del 2015 e una lunga fase di permanenza sui massimi (41-43%: incremento complessivo del 10% circa dallo start al massimo dei consensi).
Nella secondo trimestre 2016 Trump supera per la prima volta Clinton nei consensi aggregati, anche se in modo inerziale sia come percentuale sia come settimane.
Da luglio 2015 a luglio 2016 (13 mesi complessivi) lo spread Clinton vs. Trump diminuisce di 9/10 o 90% (da 19% a 1.9% = -17.1%; Start Clinton 53% vs. Start Trump 34%; luglio 2016 Clinton vs. Trump = 44.6 vs. 42.7%), con un incremento di erosione dello spread nel 2016.
L'erosione complessiva media dello spread risulta essere di 1.32% / mese.
In caso di permanenza della pendenza dello spread osservata nel periodo luglio 2015 - luglio 2016, a fine agosto 2016 lo spread Clinton vs. Trump = zero.
Nel 2016 la pendenza della erosione dello spread mostra incremento; quindi risulta probabile un risultato zero anche imminente con ipotetico successivo sorpasso Trump vs. Clinton in agosto.
Gli indicatori di incertezza politica evidenziano incremento di incertezza (associata a ipotetica vittoria di Trump) nel 2016, in corrispondenza dell'incremento della pendenza di erosione dello spread Clinton vs. Trump.
►ENG.- Clinton shows a constant and important loss of consensus from July 2015 to July 2016 (loss of about 10% from the start to the minimum of the consensus).
Trump shows a rapid increase in the 2015 consensus and a long period of permanence on maximum (41-43%: total increase of about 10% from the start of the consensus).
In the second quarter 2016, Trump exceeds for the first time Clinton aggregates consensus, although negligible either as a percentage or as weeks.
From July 2015 to July 2016 (13 months in total) the spread Clinton vs. Trump decreases by 9/10 or 90% (from 19% to 1.9% = -17.1%; 53% Clinton start vs. Trump start 34%; July 2016 Clinton vs. Trump = 44.6 vs. 42.7%), with an increase of erosion of the spread in 2016.
The erosion total average of the spread is 1.32% / month.
If there will be a permanence in the spread slope erosion observed in July 2015 to July 2016, at the end of August 2016 the Clinton vs. spread Trump = zero.
In 2016, the slope of the erosion of the spread shows important increase; then it is likely a result of zero also at the start of August, with hypothetical overtaking Trump Vs. Clinton.
The political uncertainty indicators show uncertainty increase (associated with Trump win) in 2016, matching this increase with the increase of spread slope Clinton vs. Trump %-spread.

NOTES.
►ITA.- In accordo con i dati presentati, Trump supera Clinton in agosto (prima o ultima settimana a seconda della pendenza utilizzata).
►ENG.- According to these data, Trump in August (at the start or last week, according to slope used) surpassess Clinton.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
{01} - Salvatore SalVi Vicidomini, 2016 - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. BrExit vs. BRemain. Some notes about Trending Curves of Polls (Undecided vs. Leave/Remain), and Net Cot Chart of GBP. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/304355704
{02} -http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
This is not useful for trading and investing.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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  • #162
  • Jul 27, 2016 9:53am Jul 27, 2016 9:53am

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Notes and charts about a local graphical contest opportunity in WTI (OIL) Index: a view on RSI, Full Stochastic, Coppock Curve, Volumes.

☒ Aim of the post.
In a previous post (n.155) there is a first characterization (both in long term view and in mid term) of a local graphical contest in OIL WTI Index: bullish (Head & Shoulders) vs. bearish (Double Tops: Oct.2015-Jun.2016).
In the second post (n.157) there is a complete characterization of this graphical contest.
In the present study there is a short view on weekly behaviour of WTI indicators-oscillators (RSI; Full Stochastic; Coppock Curve; Volumes).
The aim of this post (the previous and the next) aims to publish some up-dates about the structure in progress and its probability of bullish vs. bearish activation.

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
According to post n.157, the graphical contest shows the following elements (see also WTI personal studies in #1):
-) Sx-shoulder (7 weeks; 37.75$-50.92$);
-) Head (36 weeks; 50.92$-26.05$-51.45$: 24.87$ area);
-) Dx-shoulder (or handle) in progress.
-) Numerical up-target is 75.79$. Percentage down target is 13.33$ (loss of 48.8% from head-low).
-) Double tops not perfect (second a little above the first); this element is a favorable to the bullish scenario.
-) Current price level in the superior half of graphical contest (about at mid-point or 75% level od the area), and in descending-array toward the mid-level (or switch-level bullish vs. bearish probability; see the white directional triangles); this element is favorable to bullish view.
-) MACD structures (post n.155) shows some signs of bullish view: current positive values; ascending tops; divergences on key long term lows (2009-2016).
-) Complete ema-ribbon (post n.158) in monthly and weekly frames shows signs favorable to a local bullish (recovery?) action of WTI.
-) According to post n.159, OVX and OIV (CBOE volatility indicators on WTI) shows interesting Head & Shoulders in preliminar bearish activation, associated with a ''monstre'' MACD divergence on key tops 2015-2016; these elements are favorable to a bullish action (and/or) reaction of WTI. Moreover OVX shows a giant divergence on key lows 2009 vs. 2016: descending lows vs. descending OVX tops (sign of structural reversal in bullish status, of WTI???).
-) The seasonal behaviour of WTI (post n.160), shows July and August as positive months (open < close) and this is statistically favorable to a re-start of bullish action of WTI during current summer II half. Autumn months shows a very bad stats.

According to attached chart, there is a perfect time-balance between two shoulders (7 weeks).
The bearish mouvement of WTI in July, shows a slope compatible with a correction array (not impulsive action or structure).
Volume pattern in the ascending phase (Feb.May.-2016), are in increasing-array, but not in the next bearish phase (June-July).
PricesXVolume columns shows two key levels compatible with a Dx-shoulder building in action: ~50$; ~40$.
Used oscillators shows current values and slopes compatible to a correction from the top values obtained in May.
All these data are favorable to a next (and imminent???) continuation-bull of WTI.

In the next posts there will be other graphical elements, in order to obtain probability data for hedgeing the graphical contest.

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#1] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. WTI - Light Crude OIL personal studies. -- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/wti-light-crude-oil-personal-studies-salvi-salvatore-vicidomini

☒ Chart sources.
❖ StockCharts.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg6.jpg Size: 469 KB
  • #163
  • Jul 31, 2016 3:20pm Jul 31, 2016 3:20pm

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Notes and charts about a local graphical contest opportunity in WTI (OIL) Index: a view on break even of Opec, Non-Opec, On Shore, and Off Shore producers.

☒ Aim of the post.
In a previous post (n.155) there is a first characterization (both in long term view and in mid term) of a local graphical contest in OIL WTI Index: bullish (Head & Shoulders) vs. bearish (Double Tops: Oct.2015-Jun.2016).
In the second post (n.157) there is a complete characterization of this graphical contest.
In the present study there is a short view on some possible implication between the break even of the main OIL producers (Opec, Non-Opec, On Shore, and Off Shore, etc.) vs. the Graphical Contest elements as, the neck-line, current price-levels, and the possible up-target.
The aim of this post (the previous and the next) aims to publish some up-dates about the structure in progress and its probability of bullish vs. bearish activation.

☒ Graphical Elements.
According to post n.157, the graphical contest shows the following elements (see also WTI personal studies in #1):
-) Sx-shoulder (7 weeks; 37.75$-50.92$);
-) Head (36 weeks; 50.92$-26.05$-51.45$: 24.87$ area);
-) Dx-shoulder (or handle) in progress.
-) Numerical up-target is 75.79$. Percentage down target is 13.33$ (loss of 48.8% from head-low).
-) Double tops not perfect (second a little above the first); this element is a favorable to the bullish scenario.
-) Current price level in the superior half of graphical contest (about at mid-point or 75% level od the area), and in descending-array toward the mid-level (or switch-level bullish vs. bearish probability; see the white directional triangles); this element is favorable to bullish view.
-) MACD structures (post n.155) shows some signs of bullish view: current positive values; ascending tops; divergences on key long term lows (2009-2016).
-) Complete ema-ribbon (post n.158) in monthly and weekly frames shows signs favorable to a local bullish (recovery?) action of WTI.
-) According to post n.159, OVX and OIV (CBOE volatility indicators on WTI) shows interesting Head & Shoulders in preliminar bearish activation, associated with a ''monstre'' MACD divergence on key tops 2015-2016; these elements are favorable to a bullish action (and/or) reaction of WTI. Moreover OVX shows a giant divergence on key lows 2009 vs. 2016: descending lows vs. descending OVX tops (sign of structural reversal in bullish status, of WTI???).
-) The seasonal behaviour of WTI (post n.160), shows July and August as positive months (open < close) and this is statistically favorable to a re-start of bullish action of WTI during current summer II half. Autumn months shows a very bad stats.
-) According to post n.162, there is a perfect time-balance between two shoulders (7 weeks). Moreover, the slope of bearish mouvement of WTI in July, the volume patterns ''Feb.May-2016'' vs. ''June-July'', and the current values of used oscillators, are compatible with a correction array (not impulsive action or structure). PricesXVolume columns is compatible with a Dx-shoulder building in action: ~50$; ~40$.

According to the attached chart (modified from Invesco), the Graphical Contest elements shows the following compatibility:
Neck-line level is compatible only with the 50% of break even area (or neutrality) of US Shale aggregate and Middle East Off Shore producers; but this level is totally profitable for OPEC On Shore (see Saudi Arabia).
Current level and mid-point of Graphical Contest (38.49$ as in post n.157) are compatible only with 3/4 (or 75%) of OPEC On Shore break even area.
Up target of Graphical Contest is totally profitable for aggregates as OPEC On Shore, US Shale, ME Off Shore, but only for 50% about of other aggregates (see Venezuela); Arctic aggregate is KO also with this level.
The bullish activation of Graphical Contest is fully compatible with the break even price-area and more, for Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, UAE, Kwait, Qatar, US (shale only). It is neutral for other aggregate producers as Venezuela.
A possible bullish leg of WTI 39-76$ in the next quarters, is compatible with the current geopolitical structure of the main OIL players as ME-OPEC and part of US producers.

In the next posts there will be other graphical elements, in order to obtain probability data for hedgeing the graphical contest.

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#1] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. WTI - Light Crude OIL personal studies. -- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/wti-light-crude-oil-personal-studies-salvi-salvatore-vicidomini

☒ Chart sources.
❖ FreeStockCharts; Invesco.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg Size: 1.3 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg6.jpg Size: 504 KB
  • #164
  • Aug 2, 2016 3:53am Aug 2, 2016 3:53am

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Notes and charts about a local graphical contest opportunity in WTI (OIL) Index: hypothetical right or Dx shoulder.

☒ Aim of the post.
In a previous post (n.155) there is a first characterization (both in long term view and in mid term) of a local graphical contest in OIL WTI Index: bullish (Head & Shoulders) vs. bearish (Double Tops: Oct.2015-Jun.2016).
In the second post (n.157) there is a complete characterization of this graphical contest.
In the present study there is a geometrical view on the hypothetical shoulders of this graphical contest, with an analysis on the price and time components.
The aim of this post (the previous and the next) aims to publish some up-dates about the structure in progress and its probability of bullish vs. bearish activation.

☒ Previous Graphical Elements.
According to post n.157, the graphical contest shows the following elements (see also WTI personal studies in #1):
-) Sx-shoulder (7 weeks; 37.75$-50.92$);
-) Head (36 weeks; 50.92$-26.05$-51.45$: 24.87$ area);
-) Dx-shoulder (or handle) in progress.
-) Numerical up-target is 75.79$. Percentage down target is 13.33$ (loss of 48.8% from head-low).
-) Double tops not perfect (second a little above the first); this element is a favorable to the bullish scenario.
-) Current price level in the superior half of graphical contest (about at mid-point or 75% level od the area), and in descending-array toward the mid-level (or switch-level bullish vs. bearish probability; see the white directional triangles); this element is favorable to bullish view.
-) MACD structures (post n.155) shows some signs of bullish view: current positive values; ascending tops; divergences on key long term lows (2009-2016).
-) Complete ema-ribbon (post n.158) in monthly and weekly frames shows signs favorable to a local bullish (recovery?) action of WTI.
-) According to post n.159, OVX and OIV (CBOE volatility indicators on WTI) shows interesting Head & Shoulders in preliminar bearish activation, associated with a ''monstre'' MACD divergence on key tops 2015-2016; these elements are favorable to a bullish action (and/or) reaction of WTI. Moreover OVX shows a giant divergence on key lows 2009 vs. 2016: descending lows vs. descending OVX tops (sign of structural reversal in bullish status, of WTI???).
-) The seasonal behaviour of WTI (post n.160), shows July and August as positive months (open < close) and this is statistically favorable to a re-start of bullish action of WTI during current summer II half. Autumn months shows a very bad stats.
-) According to post n.162, there is a perfect time-balance between two shoulders (7 weeks). Moreover, the slope of bearish mouvement of WTI in July, the volume patterns ''Feb.May-2016'' vs. ''June-July'', and the current values of used oscillators, are compatible with a correction array (not impulsive action or structure). PricesXVolume columns is compatible with a Dx-shoulder building in action: ~50$; ~40$.
-) According to the post n.163, the neck-line level is compatible only with the 50% of break even area (or neutrality) of US Shale aggregate and Middle East Off Shore producers, and totally profitable for OPEC On Shore (see Saudi Arabia). Current level and mid-point of Graphical Contest (38.49$ as in post n.157) are compatible only with 3/4 (or 75%) of OPEC On Shore break even area. Up target of Graphical Contest is totally profitable for OPEC On Shore, US Shale, ME Off Shore, but only for 50% about of other aggregates (see Venezuela); Arctic aggregate is KO also with this level. The bullish activation of Graphical Contest is fully compatible with the break even price-area and more, for Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, UAE, Kwait, Qatar, US (shale only). It is neutral for other aggregate producers as Venezuela. A possible bullish leg of WTI 39-76$ in the next quarters, is compatible with the current geopolitical structure of the main OIL players as ME-OPEC and part of US producers.
☒ This study Graphical Elements.
This week the shoulder areas of WTI graphical contest, are about in a geometrical equivalence, with a possible local reversal of the June-July bearish trend.
This scenario is compatible with a big reversal of WTI and a next activation of graphical contest in bullish status.
If Dx or right shoulder shows an important enlargement of its priceXtime area (well below the low of Sx-shoulder, 37.7$), WTI can SellOff with a new bearish leg toward previous 2009 lows zone.

In the next posts there will be other graphical elements, in order to obtain probability data for hedgeing the graphical contest.

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#1] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. WTI - Light Crude OIL personal studies. -- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/wti-light-crude-oil-personal-studies-salvi-salvatore-vicidomini

☒ Chart sources.
❖ FreeStockCharts; Invesco.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg6.jpg Size: 737 KB
  • #165
  • Aug 3, 2016 11:03am Aug 3, 2016 11:03am

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


US Presidentials: up-date analysis (August start) of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump''.


☒ AIM OF NOTE.
The purpose of this note is to up-date the previous complete analysis of curve components of polls: favorable to Clinton; favorable to Trump; spread Clinton vs. Trump (see #01);

☒ DATA.
According to previous poll-analysis (#01), Trump surpassess Clinton at start of August, with the largest spread Trump>Clinton from the start of US Presidential competition, both in spread-value and in time (see spread chart).
Moreover, Trump consensus shows a new ascending top (>45%) from the start of US competitions, and Clinton its IV consecutive low (in 2016) below 44%!!!
The next reaction of spread (27/July-02/August) is violent, with an interesting increase favorable to Clinton; but the current %-top, tests the descending line from the Apr.2016 values, without breaks the ''erosion trend line'' with slope higher. Infact the recent top of Clinton %-consensus is well below the 2016 tops (see Trump, with a new top from start). For these reasons, current values shows an intact slope of the spread erosion.
Trump maintain the two slopes of its %-consensus: the ascending consensus line from the start, and the ascending consensus line from III quarter 2016 (with fast increase or slope).

☒ NOTES.
According to these data, Trump in mid-long term shows a continuation-increase of consensus, with the spread-slope in continuation-erosion.
Alert for the current reversal attempt of Clinton consensus, but with values again well below the key recent tops.

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
{#01} - Salvatore SalVi Vicidomini, 2016 - US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators. http://bit.ly/2aMtPl6


☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
This is not useful for trading and investing.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #166
  • Aug 3, 2016 12:25pm Aug 3, 2016 12:25pm

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Notes and charts about a local graphical contest opportunity in WTI (OIL) Index: perfect geometrical equivalence between hypothetical left and right shoulders.

☒ Aim of the post.
In a previous post (n.155) there is a first characterization (both in long term view and in mid term) of a local graphical contest in OIL WTI Index: bullish (Head & Shoulders) vs. bearish (Double Tops: Oct.2015-Jun.2016).
In the second post (n.157) there is a complete characterization of this graphical contest.
In the present study there is a geometrical view on the hypothetical shoulders of this graphical contest, with an analysis on the price and time components.
The aim of this post (the previous and the next) aims to publish some up-dates about the structure in progress and its probability of bullish vs. bearish activation.

☒ Graphical Elements.
According to yesterday post (n.164), this week the right shoulder areas of WTI graphical contest, are about in a geometrical equivalence with the left (2015), with a possible local reversal of the June-July bearish trend.
Today (03/August) there is a small flash crash on WTI (about 5min. bar, at 9:30) from 40.45$ to 39.19$ on future scad. Sept.2016.
With this new recent low at the start of the day n.38 of the hypothetica DX-shoulder, we have a right shoulder priceXtime area, as follows (on continuous contract):
51.67$-39.26$ = 12.41$; daily bars = 37.5-38.0; area = 12.41 X 37.5-38.0 = 465.38-471.58.
This value is a little above the left shoulder area (post n.164). This about perfect geometrical equivalente between shoulders is compatible with a reversal of WTI and an interesting attempt of bullish action (restart of neck-attack ???).

In the next posts there will be other graphical elements, in order to obtain probability data for hedgeing the graphical contest.

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#1] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. WTI - Light Crude OIL personal studies. -- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/wti-light-crude-oil-personal-studies-salvi-salvatore-vicidomini

☒ Chart sources.
❖ BarCharts.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!VyjpgZZZ010251.jpg Size: 494 KB
  • #167
  • Aug 16, 2016 4:41am Aug 16, 2016 4:41am

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Lumber future: an up-date of long term chart situation.

☒ Aim of the post.
In a previous post (#1) there is a complete characterization of Lumber Future long term chart.
In this post there is an up-date of the 2016 chart situation, in order to evaluates the chart evolution.

☒ Graphical Elements.
According to previous long-term chart (#1), from March there is a large inside monthly candles (gray column on chart) in bullish activation (see two circled tops above the top level of inside); moreover there is an important continuation-bull above the multiple set-up zone (violet area).
Lumber future is in structural bullish status until to mid-level of March-inside candle (about the violet-area mid-level !!!).

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#1] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. WTI - Notes and charts about the Lumber future and its Internal Ratio ''Soft'' vs. ''Hard'' as Indicator. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299996484

☒ Chart sources.
❖ StockCharts.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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  • #168
  • Aug 16, 2016 6:47am Aug 16, 2016 6:47am

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Local graphical contest opportunity in WTI (OIL) Index: hypothetical right or Dx shoulder and the behaviours of some moving averages.

☒ Aim of the post.
In a previous post (n.155) there is a first characterization (both in long term view and in mid term) of a local graphical contest in OIL WTI Index: bullish (Head & Shoulders) vs. bearish (Double Tops: Oct.2015-Jun.2016).
In the second post (n.157) there is a complete characterization of this graphical contest.
In the present study there are some notes derived from the observations of moving average behavious (both WTI and BRENT).
These posts (previous & next) aims to publish some up-dates about the structure in progress and its probability of bullish vs. bearish activation.

☒ Previous Graphical Elements.
According to post n.157, the graphical contest shows the following elements (see also WTI personal studies in #1):
-) Sx-shoulder (7 weeks; 37.75$-50.92$);
-) Head (36 weeks; 50.92$-26.05$-51.45$: 24.87$ area);
-) Dx-shoulder (or handle) in progress.
-) Numerical up-target is 75.79$. Percentage down target is 13.33$ (loss of 48.8% from head-low).
-) Double tops not perfect (second a little above the first); this element is a favorable to the bullish scenario.
-) Current price level in the superior half of graphical contest (about at mid-point or 75% level od the area), and in descending-array toward the mid-level (or switch-level bullish vs. bearish probability; see the white directional triangles); this element is favorable to bullish view.
-) MACD structures (post n.155) shows some signs of bullish view: current positive values; ascending tops; divergences on key long term lows (2009-2016).
-) Complete ema-ribbon (post n.158) in monthly and weekly frames shows signs favorable to a local bullish (recovery?) action of WTI.
-) According to post n.159, OVX and OIV (CBOE volatility indicators on WTI) shows interesting Head & Shoulders in preliminar bearish activation, associated with a ''monstre'' MACD divergence on key tops 2015-2016; these elements are favorable to a bullish action (and/or) reaction of WTI. Moreover OVX shows a giant divergence on key lows 2009 vs. 2016: descending lows vs. descending OVX tops (sign of structural reversal in bullish status, of WTI???).
-) The seasonal behaviour of WTI (post n.160), shows July and August as positive months (open < close) and this is statistically favorable to a re-start of bullish action of WTI during current summer II half. Autumn months shows a very bad stats.
-) According to post n.162, there is a perfect time-balance between two shoulders (7 weeks). Moreover, the slope of bearish mouvement of WTI in July, the volume patterns ''Feb.May-2016'' vs. ''June-July'', and the current values of used oscillators, are compatible with a correction array (not impulsive action or structure). PricesXVolume columns is compatible with a Dx-shoulder building in action: ~50$; ~40$.
-) According to the post n.163, the neck-line level is compatible only with the 50% of break even area (or neutrality) of US Shale aggregate and Middle East Off Shore producers, and totally profitable for OPEC On Shore (see Saudi Arabia). Current level and mid-point of Graphical Contest (38.49$ as in post n.157) are compatible only with 3/4 (or 75%) of OPEC On Shore break even area. Up target of Graphical Contest is totally profitable for OPEC On Shore, US Shale, ME Off Shore, but only for 50% about of other aggregates (see Venezuela); Arctic aggregate is KO also with this level. The bullish activation of Graphical Contest is fully compatible with the break even price-area and more, for Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, UAE, Kwait, Qatar, US (shale only). It is neutral for other aggregate producers as Venezuela. A possible bullish leg of WTI 39-76$ in the next quarters, is compatible with the current geopolitical structure of the main OIL players as ME-OPEC and part of US producers.
-) According to post n.164 and n.166, during the first August week, the shoulder areas of WTI graphical contest, shows a perfect geometrical equivalence, with a possible local reversal of the June-July bearish trend, compatible with a big reversal of WTI.

☒ This study Graphical Elements.
Ema moving averages and ema envelops, shows a bullish array (10 weeks ~ 44 weeks or 10 months), with an about perfect touch. Simple moving averages and Kaufman averages, shows a spread well above zero (10w > 44w). These signs are favorable to a bullish activation of graphical contests.
Short term and mid term MACD confirm the moving average view.

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#1] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. WTI - Light Crude OIL personal studies. - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/wti-light-crude-oil-personal-studies-salvi-salvatore-vicidomini

☒ Chart sources.
❖ StockCharts.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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  • #169
  • Aug 21, 2016 3:04am Aug 21, 2016 3:04am

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Local graphical contest opportunity in WTI (OIL) Index: bullish activation of the descending channel from June-2016 top.

☒ Aim of the post.
In a previous post (n.155) there is a first characterization (both in long term view and in mid term) of a local graphical contest in OIL WTI Index: bullish (Head & Shoulders) vs. bearish (Double Tops: Oct.2015-Jun.2016).
In the second post (n.157) there is a complete characterization of this graphical contest.
In the present study there are some notes derived from the observations of price behavious inside the descending channel from the top of June 2016.
These posts (previous & next) aims to publish some up-dates about the structure in progress and its probability of bullish vs. bearish activation (see also WTI personal studies in #1).

☒ Graphical Elements.
According to previous posts, on the chart there are:
-) n.157, the graphical contest elements in gray;
-) n.168, the key gap down in yellow, and two moving average at frame of 10mo.;
Moreover, the volume pattern, in important increase in the phase post-bottom.
Two version of descending channel from the June top shows an interesting target zone, about linked to the price-zone of neck & gap-down.
This price-zone is a key price area for a possible bull-abortion of graphical contest.
It is very interesting to observe the number of weekly candles in the descending phase from June top vs. the two-only candles in the current ascending phase !!!


☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#1] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. WTI - Light Crude OIL personal studies. - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/wti-light-crude-oil-personal-studies-salvi-salvatore-vicidomini

☒ Chart sources.
❖ StockCharts.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #170
  • Aug 21, 2016 2:05pm Aug 21, 2016 2:05pm

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Notes and charts about 6 key global Stock ETF: ACWI & VT (global); IWV & VTI (US); EZU & IEV (Europe).

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a short up-date of the mid-short term chart evolution of 6 key global stock ETF (see also posts: n.123; n.131; n.133; n.139; n.144; n.146; n.150; n.154). See also stats-data [#1].
M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average, is a combination of the following curve (yellow-orange lines): sma, ema, fwma, vwma, AL-ma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema.

☒ General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☒ Graphical Elements.
Global benchmarks shows a very positive spread between ''current prices'' vs. ''M/10'', but a negative spread between ''current values'' vs. ''previous tops of 2014 & 2015''. The red descending channel from the top now is at target. Moreover there is an interesting (gray) graphical contest in bullish status with important up-target (if this structure is confirmed). In violet there is the set-up zone (supportive element).
US benchmarks shows a double very positive spread between ''current prices'' vs. ''M/10'' & vs. ''previous tops of 2014 & 2015''. The red descending channel is in bullish status. There is also an interesting (gray) graphical contest in advanced bullish status with important up-target. In violet there is the set-up zone (supportive element), but it is below the topping zone of 2015, now the first supportive price-area.
EU benchmarks shows an inverse set of elements (see tops of 2013, 2014, 2015, vs. current values; see current prices inside the red descending channel; zero spread ''current prices'' vs. ''M/10''; violet area as a resistance element). Moreover there is a very interesting double bottoms ''in progress'' (gray area) with interesting up-target if confirmed (but now, prices are again below the signal-level of 2016 tops ( = violet set-up).
See also stats-data [#1].

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#1] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the Monthly, Seasonal, President, II term President, Decade Cycles-Patterns, and some empirical rules as 30y, 21y, 12y, 7y, GANN's January Rule, and December Low Rule for US Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289252448

☒ Chart sources.
❖ TradingView.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #171
  • Aug 27, 2016 11:09am Aug 27, 2016 11:09am

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


US stock market behaviour and election years: the first six months.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a very interesting slide from GailFosler.com in order to shows the behaviour of US stock market in the first six months post election (see also this reviews on stats #1).

☒ Graphical Elements.
See attached charts and the complete stats (#1).

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#1] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the Monthly, Seasonal, President, II term President, Decade Cycles-Patterns, and some empirical rules as 30y, 21y, 12y, 7y, GANN's January Rule, and December Low Rule for US Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289252448

☒ Chart sources.
❖ GailFosler.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
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  • #172
  • Aug 28, 2016 8:47am Aug 28, 2016 8:47am

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


FOMC meeting decision and the pre US-election phase (September-October): is it independent???

☒ Aim of the post.
This post is speculative only, and based on a possible link and/or TradeOff between the current president & next FOMC decision about US FED Fund Rate.

☒ Elements & Notes.
The attached charts are an about complete view of data, in order to decide on FED Fund Rate.
Data shows a big performance of US economy/finance in these 8 years of Obama president.
There is also the behaviour (from 1984) of FOMC in election years for the pre-election phase (September and October).
Chart shows one only event of FED Fund Rate increase in the pre US-election (2004; Greenspan FED President): G.W.Bush I vs. G.W.Bush II (Republican).
Moreover there are two slides of CME about the probability of FED Fund Rate increase.
Now the question is the following: ?<<<FOMC decision is independent>>>?
YES: OK! Only economic & financial elements will drive the next FOMC behaviour, with high probability of 0.25 b.p. of increase in the next Autumn-Winter seasons.
NO: in this case, what behaviour will favor the Obama-Clinton (Democrats) establishment (or Trump) in the next election (see chart study in #1) ???
-) If the US economy/finance is really in solid condition, then the best possible continuity message '' Obama-Clinton '' would be an increase of FED Fund Rate in pre US-election phase (September?). This is a very similar passage to Bush I vs. Bush II of 2004.
-) If the US condition is not solid, a permanence at the current level of FED Fund Rate could favor Trump.
According to this speculative scenario, the rare event (increase of FED Fund Rate in Septmeber) is favorable to Democratic continuity (Obama-Clinton); the normal scenario (FED Fund at current level until to election of new president) is favorable to Trump.

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#1] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Chart sources.
❖ CME, GailFosler, TradingEconomics.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #173
  • Sep 1, 2016 2:31pm Sep 1, 2016 2:31pm

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


US Presidentials: ''Clinton vs. Trump'' up-date of August polls.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is an August up-date of polls of ''Clinton vs. Trump'' (see the chart analysis of July polls #1).

☒ Graphical Elements.
There is an important and positive enlargement of spread ''Clinton vs. Trump'', but their main trend are conserved (#1).

☒ Chart sources.
❖ RealClearPolitics.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #174
  • Sep 7, 2016 7:55am Sep 7, 2016 7:55am

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


US Presidentials: base stats of spread between polls % ''Trump vs. Clinton''.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a first base stats on Trump positive polls (spread ''Trump% vs. Clinton%'') from 2015.
For a first curve analysis of polls data-set of RealClearPolitics, see #1.

☒ Graphical Elements.
According to previous up-date (post n.173), in August there is an important and positive enlargement of spread ''Clinton vs. Trump'', but their main trend are conserved (see curve analysis: #1).
Data of this post are on the attached table:
-) Trump polls with positive spread have 9 sources.
-) Trump polls with positive spread shows increase during 2016.
-) Trump polls with positive spread are only 12.6% od total 2016 polls
-) July 2016 is the top month for Trump positive polls.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ RealClearPolitics.

Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #175
  • Sep 7, 2016 10:56am Sep 7, 2016 10:56am

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Notes and charts about the possible re-start of BitCoin bull trend.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a short up-date of the mid-term curve of BitCoin, in order to shows the cryptocurrency advanced attempt to re-start the structural bullish trend (see the previous post #148).
M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average, is a combination of the following curve (yellow-orange lines): sma, ema, fwma, vwma, AL-ma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema.

☒ Graphical Elements.
We are at the end of the local bearish array ''June-August''???

☒ Chart sources.
❖ TradingView.

Bibliography.
Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2014 - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the intraday giant spikes of BitCoin prices. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260159249

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #176
  • Sep 7, 2016 11:51am Sep 7, 2016 11:51am

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Up-date on some giant graphical structures of the SP500 Index.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a short up-date of the giant graphical structures of the SP500 Index.
M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average, is a combination of the following curve (yellow-orange lines): sma, ema, fwma, vwma, AL-ma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema.

☒ Graphical Elements.
See attached slide.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ FreeStockCharts.

Bibliography.
Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2014 - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the intraday giant spikes of BitCoin prices. -https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260159249

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg Size: 1.1 MB
  • #177
  • Sep 26, 2016 9:24am Sep 26, 2016 9:24am

♈► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀♈

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


US Presidentials: polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' of September 1-15.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there is a short up-date of the polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' in the period 1-15 September.
For a first curve analysis of polls data-set of RealClearPolitics, see #1.

☒ Graphical Elements.
According to previous up-date (n.165; n.173; n.174) posts, the structure of aggregated polls shows a continuous decreasing spread ''Clinton-Trump'', with Trump consensus in continuation increase (see also curve analysis: #1).
But aggregate data still showed a decided global advantage for Clinton.
The sample of polls of September 1-15, shows a normal evolution from 1 to 13, according to previous trend; but in the two group of polls of 14 & 15 Sept., there is a local important increase in Trump consensus.
It will be very important to monitor the spread in this second part of September, according to today FaceToFace.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ RealClearPolitics.

Bibliography.
#1 - Sal'Vi Salvatore Vicidomini, 2016 - Presidenziali USA: analisi delle curve di tendenze dei sondaggi ''Clinton vs. Trump'' e degli indicatori di Incertezza Politica. {US Presidentials analysis of trending curves of polls ''Clinton vs. Trump'' and of Uncertainty Policy Indicators}. - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305641039

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #178
  • Oct 3, 2016 7:19am Oct 3, 2016 7:19am

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Some Qualitative Notes about the Impact of QE Financial Ecosystem and ZERO Governative Bond yield, on Bank stock benchmarks of Euro-Area vs. US Area.

☒ Aim of the post.
In this post there are some economic and finacial curves in order to obtain data from the effects on main banks of the QE financial ecosystem and ZERO or negative government bond yields.
A previous note shows the hard impact of the QE systems on the bank ranking according to relative capitalization: US with an impressive increase; Europe with an important decrease (#8; see also these posts on QE effects: #1; #2; #3; #4; #5; #6; #7).

☒ ITA Abstract.
Comparando i dati USA e Euro-Area, si evince che il grande ribasso dei settori finanziario-bancassicurativo dell'Euro-Area appare causato da fenomeni di politica economica locale e non dall'ecosistema finanziario dei QE e dei tassi ZERO dei bond governativi.
I principali fenomeni indiziati potrebbero essere: interventi pubblici sistematici; assenza di un piano strategico di fallimenti controllati; disarmonia bancassicurativo europea; eccessivo protezionismo nazionale e frammentazione bancassicurativa; modelli di business basati sulle banche fisiche e sulla iper-speculazione a leva in strumenti derivati complessi.

☒ Graphical Elements.
During the QE financial ecosystem (post-2008), the governative bond yields (10y) of Euro-Area was very similar to US 10y yield, compared to inflaction rate evolution.
ECB & FED fund rate vs. inflation shows same current values.
FED fund rate shows an evolution more aggressive (fast decrease; long zero-area; start of new increase phase) than ECB.
Debt/GDP ratios are very similar both for curve evolution and curve values.
Total stock benchmarks and finacial stock benchmarks, shows overperformance of EU vs. US from 2003 to 2011-2012; US > EU post-2011, and from 2014 there is a disruptive enlargement.
The divergence of performances US vs. EU is monstre in the phase 2009-2016: US financial stocks US +110% vs. EU +10% (spread: +100% !!!!!!!).
A sample of 4 key banks is interesting (top two players of Germany & USA): Deutsche Bank and Commerz Bank are collapsed vs. 2007 top values; BAC shows a bad chart but not collapsed as the previous two banks; JPM shows an incredible bullish chart with new historical top, about 2X vs. tops of 2007, very similar to Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) the III US Bank.

☒ Notes.
The big downside of the financial and bancassurance sector of the Euro-Area appears caused by local phenomena and not the financial ecosystem of QE.
In fact the US banking and financial indices exhibit radically different (positive) charts.
Some of the (bad) Euro-area local phenomena that have an impact on its banking sector, could be the following:
-) Systematic public intervention and absence of a strategic plan of controlled bankruptcies;
-) Lack of a bancassurance harmonic arrangement;
-) Excessive national protectionism and fragmentation in critical regions and nations of the Euro-area;
-) Senseless use of business models based on physical banks and òleveraged hyper-speculation in complex financial derivatives.

☒ Chart sources.
❖ StockCharts; TradingEconomics.

Bibliography.
Salvatore Salvi Vicidomini, 2015 [#1] - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the ForEx BlackSwan of Swiss Franc (CHF), powered by Swiss National Bank in January 15, 2015, based on a qualitative analysis of CoT curves. - ForexFactory thread - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/271137015
Salvatore Salvi Vicidomini, 2015 [#2] - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the Ratio & Spread Curves of Precious Metal Commodities vs. Commodity Benchmarks and Industrial Metal Commodities. - ForexFactory thread - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/286190739
Salvatore Salvi Vicidomini, 2015 [#3] - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the ratio indicators of Gold (Au) vs. some precious and industrial metals: Platinum (Pt), Silver (Ag), Palladium (Pd), Copper (Cu), Aluminium (Al), Lead (Pb), Zinc (Zn). - ForexFactory thread - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277889956
Salvatore Salvi Vicidomini, 2015 [#4] - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the Market Capitalization of China Stock Exchanges vs. Japan, USA and World, inside the Financial Ecosystem of QE. - ForexFactory thread - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281176863
Salvatore Salvi Vicidomini, 2015 [#5] - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the Qualitative Effects of the ''QE Financial Ecosystem'' on price-curves of US Dollar, Gold, BitCoin, Yuan-Renminbi crosses and Euro. Chance vs. Will. - ForexFactory thread - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280775743
Salvatore Salvi Vicidomini, 2015 [#6] - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the OIL Benchmarks WTI & BRENT: Current Situation of some Indicators, with Annotations on Possible QE Role. - ForexFactory thread - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282002813
Salvatore Salvi Vicidomini, 2015 [#7] - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the qualitative effects of US and Japanese Quantitative Easings on Dollar, Euro, Yen and Gold. - ForexFactory thread - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271907415
Salvatore Salvi Vicidomini, 2016 [#8] - Financial Markets Observatory Lab.Notes and charts about the Comparation of Bank Total Assets and Capitalizations of EuroArea vs. US Area, during the QE (Quantitative Easing) Financial Ecosystem (2008-2015). - ForexFactory thread - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/294579609

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!
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  • #179
  • Oct 10, 2016 7:36am Oct 10, 2016 7:36am

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Some Qualitative Notes about the GBP SellOff of October 06 2016.

☒ Aim of the post.
Thuesday 06 October 2016 at 07pm (US hour) the GBP and its ForEx crosses, shows a massive SellOff, with moderate volume level and a violent evolution in 10 minutes about. In fact there are only two 5min bars on the chart and the hourly, daily and weekly frames shows the same long-tail candle structure.
Some traders and analyst pointed out that the mini BlackSwan of the GBP is a scandalous phenomenon in the normal dynamics of the financial markets of the currencies.
The aim of this post is to search elements supporting or not this view.
Elements used ar very similar to previous post regarding BitCoin [#01] large SellOff in 2014, and CHF [#02] historical BlackSwan of 2015.

☒ ITA Abstract.
In questo post si tenta di chiarire i violenti avvenimenti ribassisti della Sterlina subiti il 6 ottobre 2016.
Tutti i dati raccolti (struttura grafica locale post-2009; grafico di lungo termine; CoT; indicatore di instabilità politica UK; evento BrExit) concordano in una evoluzione ribassista della Sterlina in seguito alla rottura nel 2016 (BrExit) del livello critico 140. Il target naturale sarebbe area 100 in caso di non recupero della base a 140.
Quindi i dati grafici, politici ed economici, mostrano che la rapida evoluzione di prezzo della Sterlina durante il 6 ottobre 2016, risulta solo una naturale evoluzione-conseguenza e non un evento scandaloso, e inoltre non costituisce nemmeno un evento raro e isolato su base mensile-settimanale. La fase post BrExit del prezzo della sterlina (nuovi minimi al di sotto di 140; assenza di recupero) era un chiaro segno di ulteriore debolezza in arrivo. Del resto i principali attori CoT erano correttamente posizionati fin dal 2014-2015, non come accadde sul CHF BlackSwan [#02].

☒ Graphical Elements.
The very long term structure of GBP index shows a large bearish pattern (large red rectangle) with a first hard phase in 1981-1984 (''A''), a very impulsive phase. A second phase (B1-B2-B3) as a large side action, but well below (in average) vs. mid-level of the previous fast leg ''A'' (175-180). B3 top demarcates the restart of violent bearish action of ''A'' with a very similar behaviour until to 2009 lows. The next phase is local blue side rectangle, pre-BrExit (see below).
Bearish of 2009 and 2016 broken down two important ascending rectangles (blue trend lines), visibly breaking the multiannual attempt to recovery the violent declines in ''80 years.
The level 140 about, for GBP Index future, is a very critical value on very long term frame, according to some previous key lows (yellow circles). Only during 1984-1985, GBP was below this critical level, with a very fast and violent behaviour.
From the 2009 bottom (on 140 level about), there is a local side structure (in blue) under bearish attack in 2016 (BrExit event), and with possible bearish target at 100 (blue columns).
The BrExit event cause a monstre SellOff monthly candle, but not the largest (see monthly bars of 1981, 1992, 2008), with bearish activation of the side blue rectangle. Infact the level of 140 about was broken down during June 2016 (BrExit), without a subsequet recovery, but with new lows below 140.
The main bearish actions from 2008, shows fast increase and positive spread between Commercial players vs. Large Traders on CoT curves (see yellow lines). The top of this spread is in 2016.
The economic policy uncertainty index of UK, shows historical top values also pre-BrExit (2016 first quarter). In the phase BrExit this index obtain an unprecedented top of policy instability evaluations for UK.

☒ Notes.
All these data (local; long term; CoT; policy instability; BrExit event) agree in a continuation-bear evolution of GBP until area 100. This scenario is stopped if the GBP prices go above the base of the blue rectangle 2009-2016; It is canceled if the GBP prices go above the mid-line of the blue rectangle itself.
Graphical, political and economic data shows that the fast price evolution of GBP of Thuesday 06 October 2016 is a natural evolution and not a scandalous event; moreover, according to GBP long term chart, it is not rare and isolate on monthly-weekly base.
The post BrExit phase of GBP (new lows below 140, recovery-less) was a very clear sign of further weakness.
The CoT main players are correctly positioned from 2014-2015, not as in CHF BlackSwan [#02].

☒ Chart sources.
❖ FinViz; St.LouisFED; TimingCharts.

Bibliography.
Salvatore Salvi Vicidomini, 2014 [#01] - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Some notes/charts about the intraday giant spikes of BitCoin prices. - ForexFactory thread - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260159249
Salvatore Salvi Vicidomini, 2015 [#02] - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. Notes and charts about the ForEx BlackSwan of Swiss Franc (CHF), powered by Swiss National Bank in January 15, 2015, based on a qualitative analysis of CoT curves. - ForexFactory thread - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/271137015

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #180
  • Oct 17, 2016 3:59am Oct 17, 2016 3:59am

► #Financial #Markets #Observatory #Lab. ◀

By ORCID: 0000-0001-5086-7401


Local graphical contest opportunity in WTI (OIL) Index: a review of the previous posts and the current chart situation.

☒ Aim of the post.
In a previous post (n.155) there is a first characterization (both in long term view and in mid term) of a local graphical contest in OIL WTI Index: bullish (Head & Shoulders) vs. bearish (Double Tops: Oct.2015-Jun.2016).
In the second post (n.157) there is a complete characterization of this graphical contest.
In the present study there is a shot up-date of the weekly candles chart of WTI future.
These posts (previous & next) aims to publish some up-dates about the structure in progress and its probability of bullish vs. bearish activation.

☒ Previous Graphical Elements.
According to post n.157, the graphical contest shows the following elements (see also WTI personal studies in #1):
-) Sx-shoulder (7 weeks; 37.75$-50.92$);
-) Head (36 weeks; 50.92$-26.05$-51.45$: 24.87$ area);
-) Dx-shoulder (or handle) in progress.
-) Numerical up-target is 75.79$. Percentage down target is 13.33$ (loss of 48.8% from head-low).
-) Double tops not perfect (second a little above the first); this element is a favorable to the bullish scenario.
-) Current price level in the superior half of graphical contest (about at mid-point or 75% level od the area), and in descending-array toward the mid-level (or switch-level bullish vs. bearish probability; see the white directional triangles); this element is favorable to bullish view.
-) MACD structures (post n.155) shows some signs of bullish view: current positive values; ascending tops; divergences on key long term lows (2009-2016).
-) Complete ema-ribbon (post n.158) in monthly and weekly frames shows signs favorable to a local bullish (recovery?) action of WTI.
-) According to post n.159, OVX and OIV (CBOE volatility indicators on WTI) shows interesting Head & Shoulders in preliminar bearish activation, associated with a ''monstre'' MACD divergence on key tops 2015-2016; these elements are favorable to a bullish action (and/or) reaction of WTI. Moreover OVX shows a giant divergence on key lows 2009 vs. 2016: descending lows vs. descending OVX tops (sign of structural reversal in bullish status, of WTI???).
-) The seasonal behaviour of WTI (post n.160), shows July and August as positive months (open < close) and this is statistically favorable to a re-start of bullish action of WTI during current summer II half. Autumn months shows a very bad stats.
-) According to post n.162, there is a perfect time-balance between two shoulders (7 weeks). Moreover, the slope of bearish mouvement of WTI in July, the volume patterns ''Feb.May-2016'' vs. ''June-July'', and the current values of used oscillators, are compatible with a correction array (not impulsive action or structure). PricesXVolume columns is compatible with a Dx-shoulder building in action: ~50$; ~40$.
-) According to the post n.163, the neck-line level is compatible only with the 50% of break even area (or neutrality) of US Shale aggregate and Middle East Off Shore producers, and totally profitable for OPEC On Shore (see Saudi Arabia). Current level and mid-point of Graphical Contest (38.49$ as in post n.157) are compatible only with 3/4 (or 75%) of OPEC On Shore break even area. Up target of Graphical Contest is totally profitable for OPEC On Shore, US Shale, ME Off Shore, but only for 50% about of other aggregates (see Venezuela); Arctic aggregate is KO also with this level. The bullish activation of Graphical Contest is fully compatible with the break even price-area and more, for Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, UAE, Kwait, Qatar, US (shale only). It is neutral for other aggregate producers as Venezuela. A possible bullish leg of WTI 39-76$ in the next quarters, is compatible with the current geopolitical structure of the main OIL players as ME-OPEC and part of US producers.
-) According to post n.164 and n.166, during the first August week, the shoulder areas of WTI graphical contest, shows a perfect geometrical equivalence, with a possible local reversal of the June-July bearish trend, compatible with a big reversal of WTI.
-) According to post n.168, some moving averages (and MACD) are in bullish-array.
-) WTI values now are in the key price zone outlined in post n.169.

☒ This study Graphical Elements.
Current WTI behaviour (see attached chart) shows two possible descending rectangles in bullish evolution (see targets), and the second weekly touches of the neck-level.

☒ BIBLIOGRAPHY
[#1] SalVi Salvatore Vicidomini - Financial Markets Observatory Lab. WTI - Light Crude OIL personal studies. - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/wti-light-crude-oil-personal-studies-salvi-salvatore-vicidomini

☒ Chart sources.
❖ TradingViews.

☒ Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful [Contact].
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
#Ke'SaddhaPha'Pe'Kampa': #BundaBunda EMPIRE !!!
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