Nikola's Trading Lab

Hello dear traders,my name is Nikola.
I'm in the FX markets since 2010 year so I'm trading near 4 years (two years frequently).
I passed the hard FX school as many of you.
"Spent" (if I can say SPENT it sounds stupid,it's education) billion hours on computer,reading,testing,watching webinars etz etz.
So I consider myself as experienced trader.
Through these past few years I passed many stages (levels).
I'll be honest with you.
It was HEAVY sometimes but if you're willing to learn and persistent,difficulties can be overcomed.
The purpose of this is to help less experienced traders (if they want) to overcome some of traps on the road to their trading success.
When I'm talking about success I'm must say that I STILL DIDN'T GET RICH!
One of my life goals is to become a pro trader!And this is probably the beginning of my public promotion!
All in all (IN LARGE) you can learn a lot here.I would love that I have had a guide like this at the beginning of my trading,trully!
I'll added,prior to the start,that I'm also a student of economics (last year of studing!! thank god of the whole universe! haha).
Department of Business Economics,course Banking and Finance.
As you will see,there will be a lot of my fundamental analysis!(yet I am an economist ) Central banking policy,economics datas,economic indicators etz etz
But I must also emphasize YOU'RE TRADING FX MARKETS and YOU MUST KNOW TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EQUALLY WELL!
YOU HAVE CHARTS,USE THAT ADVANTAGE!

So enough about me,for near ending of introducation I must mention some RULES,THEY said that we need some rules and that we can't work without them
I have some rules in order to avoid mess and completley chaos!
ALLOWED:
Talking about FX,markets
posting charts
asking
any kind of economic discuss (but main focus will be US,EU and UK)
NOT ALLOWED:
insulting others (any kind of insults)
posting music links
COME ON ,BE POLITE!
ACT LIKE A TRADERS AND ADULT PERSONS!
Insubordination kids will be banned!
I have energy to argue with this kind of primates on Serbian language.
BUT English isn't my mother tongue (AS YOU CAN SEE) and I don't have a time to pick up words. (FEEL ME BROS)

I hope you will enjoy to trade with me.
You are all welcome to be part of dicussion.
Be relaxed and feel like you are at your own home (because you are,watching this on your computers ahaha ).
I love this kind of stupid jokes it makes me feel SPECIALLY!
To clarify one more thing,the name of thread,why it is LAB in the name?The answer is simple I'm a big fan of science and I found the way to merge trading with science in some way. (Untill I enter study physics for the year or so!)

IMPORTANT ARTICLE!
IMPORTANT ARTICLE! #STARTING POINT

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post7331093
​
I salute you

A combination of fundamental and technical analysis along with other factors usually leads to the best trading strategies for retail traders. In the end, it's all about order flow. I'm interested in what you have to say.

You are welcome my friend!
From Monday I'll start.
Here is some report from G-20 meeting if someone wants to read.
It's not that important for us FX traders but it's always good to read.

G - 20
Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors
Sydney, 22-23 February 2014

1. We welcome recent signs of improvement in the global economy, in particular, growth
strengthening in the United States, United Kingdom and Japan alongside continued solid growth
in China and many emerging market economies, and the resumption of growth in the euro area.
Some key tail risks have diminished.
2. Despite these recent improvements, the global economy remains far from achieving strong,
sustainable, and balanced growth. We agree the global economy still faces weaknesses in some
areas of demand, and growth is still below the rates needed to get our citizens back into jobs and
meet their aspirations for development. Recent volatility in financial markets, high levels of
public debt, continuing global imbalances and remaining vulnerabilities within some economies
highlight that important challenges remain to be managed.
3. There is no room for complacency. Addressing these challenges requires ambition. We
commit to developing new measures, in the context of maintaining fiscal sustainability and
financial sector stability, to significantly raise global growth. We will develop ambitious but
realistic policies with the aim to lift our collective GDP by more than 2 per cent above the
trajectory implied by current policies over the coming 5 years. This is over US$2 trillion more in
real terms and will lead to significant additional jobs. To achieve this we will take concrete
actions across the G20, including to increase investment, lift employment and participation,
enhance trade and promote competition, in addition to macroeconomic policies. These actions
will form the basis of our comprehensive growth strategies and the Brisbane Action Plan.
4. We recognise that monetary policy needs to remain accommodative in many advanced
economies, and should normalise in due course, with the timing being conditional on the outlook
for price stability and economic growth. This eventual development would be positive for the
global economy and reduced reliance on easy monetary policy would be beneficial in the medium
term for financial stability. In a transition phase, economic policy could help with measures to
increase private sector demand, including investment. We all stand ready to take the necessary
steps to maintain price stability, by addressing in a timely manner deflationary and inflationary
pressures. All our central banks maintain their commitment that monetary policy settings will
continue to be carefully calibrated and clearly communicated, in the context of ongoing exchange
of information and being mindful of impacts on the global economy.
5. As markets react to various policy transitions and country circumstances, asset prices and
exchange rates adjust. This might sometimes lead to excessive volatility that can be damaging to
growth. While many economies are prepared for this, our primary response is to further
strengthen and refine our domestic macroeconomic, structural and financial policy frameworks.
Exchange rate flexibility can also facilitate the adjustment of our economies. Some economies
may need to rebuild fiscal buffers where policy space has eroded. We will consistently
communicate our actions to each other and to the public, and continue to cooperate on managing
spillovers to other countries, and to ensure the continued effectiveness of global safety nets.
6. We will continue to implement our fiscal strategies flexibly to take into account near-term
economic conditions, so as to support economic growth and job creation, while putting debt as a share of GDP on a sustainable path. We will continue to work on improving these as part of our
growth strategies.
7. We are committed to creating a climate that facilitates higher investment, particularly in
infrastructure and small and medium enterprises. This is crucial for the global economy’s
transition to stronger growth in the short and medium term. We will undertake reforms to remove
constraints to private investment by establishing sound and predictable policy and regulatory
frameworks and emphasising the role of market incentives and disciplines. These, along with
other actions to promote long-term private sector investment, maximise the impact of public
sector capital expenditure, and enhance the catalytic role of multilateral development banks will
be an important part of our growth strategies and the Brisbane Action Plan.
8. We deeply regret that the IMF quota and governance reforms agreed to in 2010 have not
yet become effective and that the 15th General Review of Quotas was not completed by
January 2014. Our highest priority remains ratifying the 2010 reforms, and we urge the US to do
so before our next meeting in April. In April, we will take stock of progress towards meeting this
priority and completing the 15th General Review of Quotas by January 2015.
9. We are committed to a global response to Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) based
on sound tax policy principles. Profits should be taxed where economic activities deriving the
profits are performed and where value is created. We continue our full support for the
G20/OECD BEPS Action Plan, and look forward to progress as set out in the agreed timetable.
By the Brisbane summit, we will start to deliver effective, practical and sustainable measures to
counter BEPS across all industries, including traditional, digital and digitalised firms, in an
increasingly globalised economy. We endorse the Common Reporting Standard for automatic
exchange of tax information on a reciprocal basis and will work with all relevant parties,
including our financial institutions, to detail our implementation plan at our September meeting.
In parallel, we expect to begin to exchange information automatically on tax matters among G20
members by the end of 2015. We call for the early adoption of the standard by those jurisdictions
that are able to do so. We call on all financial centres to match our commitments. We urge all
jurisdictions that have not yet complied with the existing standard for exchange of information on
request to do so and sign the Multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in
Tax Matters without further delay. We stand ready to give tougher incentives to those
14 jurisdictions that have not qualified for Phase 2 of the evaluations. We will engage with, and
support low-income and developing countries so that they benefit from our work on tax.
10. In 2014 we are focusing our efforts on substantially completing by the Brisbane summit
key aspects of the core reforms we set out in response to the global financial crisis: building
resilient financial institutions; ending too-big-to-fail; addressing shadow banking risks; and
making derivatives markets safer. We want to promote resilience in the financial system and
greater certainty in the regulatory environment to support confidence and growth. We will
implement these reforms in a way that promotes an integrated global financial system, reduces
harmful fragmentation and avoids unintended costs for business. We commit to cooperate across
jurisdictions with a renewed focus on timely and consistent implementation supported by
meaningful peer reviews, including OTC derivatives reform. In relation to this reform, we agree
that jurisdictions and regulators should be able to defer to each other when it is justified by the
quality of their respective regulatory and enforcement regimes, based on similar outcomes, in a
non-discriminatory way, paying due respect to home country regulatory regimes.
11. We are grateful for the work of international organisations and other relevant bodies for our
meeting (see Annex for completed work and details of specific mandates for further work in
support of the above commitments).
Annex
Reports received
We welcome the following reports delivered ahead of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central
Bank Governors meeting, February 2014:
Global prospects and policy challenges, IMF Surveillance Note to the G20, February 2014.
Policies for growth and rebalancing, IMF note to the G20, February 2014.
Macroeconomic and reform priorities, prepared by IMF with inputs from the OECD and the
World Bank Group, which suggests that with ambitious and realistic policies global GDP could
lift by more than 2 per cent above the trajectory implied by current policies over the coming
5 years.
Success stories and lessons learned: Country, sector and project examples of overcoming
constraints to the financing of infrastructure, World Bank Group report to the G20 Investment
and Infrastructure Working Group, February 2014.
Practical solutions and models for addressing obstacles to institutional investment in
infrastructure in developing countries, World Bank Group report to the G20 Investment and
Infrastructure Working Group, February 2014.
Sovereign wealth funds and long-term development finance: risks and opportunities, World Bank
Group report to the G20 Investment and Infrastructure Working Group, February 2014.
Prioritisation of Work to Inform Effective Implementation Approaches of G20/OECD High Level
Principles on Long-term Investment Financing by Institutional Investors, OECD report to the
G20 Investment and Infrastructure Working Group, February 2014.
Part I – Base Erosion and Profit Shifting and Automatic Exchange of Information and Part II –
Global Forum and Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes; OECD
Secretary-General Report to the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, February
2014.
Financial Reforms – Progress and Challenges, Financial Stability Board Chairman’s letter to
G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, February 2014.
Australian G20 Presidency – Korean Government Summary of Seoul G20 Conference on
Spillovers and the Global Financial Safety Net, particularly Regional Financing Arrangements,
February 2014.
Issues for further action
We ask the international organisations working with the Framework Working Group to prepare
macroeconomic scenarios to inform our policy discussions in April.
We ask the World Bank Group to provide a report at our April meeting that outlines efforts to
optimise balance sheets in order to enhance lending capacity, including for infrastructure
investment. We look forward to work being coordinated by the WBG to assess the mutual
benefits and feasibility of MDB exposure exchanges as a means to optimise lending portfolios.
3 With the assistance of relevant international organisations, we will convene a seminar with
low-income countries on sustainable financing practices in the first half of 2014.
We encourage the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes
to continue to monitor the implementation of the standard for exchanging information upon
request and we look forward to further reports on compliance with the standard.
As part of the G20 Development Working Group’s reports on tax challenges, we ask them to
consider the need for capacity building assistance and whether current assistance is well targeted,
supports domestic resource mobilisation and transparency objectives, and avoids duplication.
We ask the G20 Anti-Corruption Working Group for an update by our April meeting on concrete
actions that the G20 can take to meet the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) standards
regarding the beneficial ownership of companies and other legal arrangements such as trusts by
G20 countries leading by example.
We look forward to the report from the Financial Stability Board in September 2014 on
jurisdictions’ established processes to enable them to defer to each other’s OTC derivatives rules
in cross-border contexts where these achieve similar outcomes. This will inform deliberations on
whether flexible outcomes-based approaches to resolving cross-border market regulation issues
could be used more widely.
We look forward to an update of progress by the FSB on its review of the structure of
representation for our meeting in April.

Also here is some link from reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A1L02Q20140222

Good luck with your thread!

lets be friends you crazy you

Thanks mate.

It would be pleasure Mr. WOLFY !

Finally, we are beginning to move out of that mess. This year and next will hopefully be a great year for global growth. I'm hoping rate hikes will happen as planned and we can start getting back more volatility back in FX.

This upcoming week will most likely cause a lot of volatility. Lots of good data coming up. Have you got any pairs in mind to focus on or any trade ideas?

Hey Nikola,

I'm a newbie. I'll follow this thread. I'm sure I can learn from you.

Today is monday still no updates from TS. It is often for abrupt onsets to be quickly over.

Surely we are.
We are moving from financial crisis.
But there is still a lot of tasks and challenges.
Emerging markets are problem.
EU zone shows some growth but we need to see continuity.Italia makes some reforms and new president is there.
I consider him to do some good job.
It's always good and evrything grows at the begginning of the year.
This period is particularly good for oil.
I only believe only in economic data.
I'll try to explain a lot of things here and what is my view on that.
Volatility is never problem if you look for volatility.
There is always a way where institutions (big fishes) making a profit. Follow them and you will find a volatility.
We are on financial market,remember that.
Firstly ,keep on you mind some funds like PENSION FUND or INSURANCE.... Money need to flow.
True,market is sometimes OUT OF liquidity when crisis occurs but look at stock indexes and you will see highs and highs ..and you will see that we are away from crisis at this point.

YEAH!It will cause HELL OF VOLATILITY!
At the very beginning I will focus mainly on econmics because there are a lot of newbies.
I need to explain some stuffs and how things works.
IMPORTANT: Economics and trading have similarities but also, and quite differences.We need to learn how to spot some things on chart.
People in this world (FX world) finds the strangest ways of trading!It's incredibly MAGNIFICENTS!Just look at FF,it's near SCI-FI.
If you are a good chartist you don't need even to look at economics.
Trading style and strategy is the way that we implement our knowledge and facts into trading (charts)
From another side there is economics,where TRUE and facts come from.
So it will be a lot of analysis over here,as for beginners as for pro's.
I don't have any pair in my mind I never did (I must say). BUT I have CURRENCY ON MY MIND! (if you know what i mean,read between the lines).

Hi and welcome Minimalist

I'll post some analys on EUR/USD right now.
Patience please,I have my own practice in the morning.
I have to come over bunch of data and to read whole book every morning.

The whole point is that we are near big resistance level.
Euro is vulnerable (vs usd) at this moment.
I'm looking for selling oportunities.

This days market are generally AWAY from normal market and cash flow.
It's out of balance!
When I trade, I demand good trading climate!
What is trading climate in this case?
It's a weather when market is in balance and there is plently room for big moves.
Period of free cash flows and market S/D trade.
During central bank's tapering,QE,FG and others I avoid to trade.

The dollar strenghtened against most currencies last week.
Swiss FRANKY and euro were only currencies from G10 that gain SIGNIFICANTLY against the dollar.
USD/CAD had some CRAZY MOVES UP.
This morning however the dollar is mostly lower,lost vs all the other G10 currencies.
This may reflect the possibility, that the Fed slows its tapering off of its bond purchases in response to the impact on EM countries, as set out in the G20 communique.

You see,good data coming from EU but there is resistance and market is more interested in downmoves

Update charts eur/usd

USD CHF is kind of interesting pair to trade,right now.
Cause situtation in Ukraine effects CHF.
It boost USD against CHF.
We can look for some pullback waves now

It was good,about +100 pips.You can reenter the position wait to hit the level UP.