All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
Monthly Profit - Daily Trading using SMA
- #665
- Aug 27, 2016 12:37am Aug 27, 2016 12:37am
Hello BK8 and thanks for your sharing
I hope I can join this thread too
I would like to ask a question?
What is the reason of the shift for SMA?
Or in others words, why we need to shift the SMA for 3 candles?
And are there anyone using cTrader desktop?
Although I can shift in the cTrader Mobile, the desktop version do not allow me to shift
I hope I can join this thread too
I would like to ask a question?
What is the reason of the shift for SMA?
Or in others words, why we need to shift the SMA for 3 candles?
And are there anyone using cTrader desktop?
Although I can shift in the cTrader Mobile, the desktop version do not allow me to shift
- #669
- Aug 27, 2016 7:38am Aug 27, 2016 7:38am
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Senior Member - Pro FX Trader | 2,736 Posts
{quote} Yes agreed! That's why i love this system, so simple and easy, it must be one off the most simple systems here on FF. That does not say it is easy to make money with it, it never is. On the other hand, i don't mind others to look at different ways to trade this, if al is well in a short while they confirm your theory about lagging non working indicators.
However, trading is actually only 20% skill, 50% emotions, 30% money management. You can give a winning formula/system to 10 different people, mechanical system with no discretion, and all 10 people will come out the other end with different results. You will have the greedy one, who wins a few, over leverages that 1 or 2 trades that lose and blow his account. You will have the fearful trader who makes excuses not to enter the trade who barely makes any profit. The angry/revenge trader, who when loses, will take a semi decent setup breaking the rules and lose again! ultimately ending up down, that's the 95% who we all know lose in forex. Then you have the 5%, the guy that does it by the book, never ever risks more than 0.5-1% per trade no matter how good the setup looks, he takes losses the same way he takes winners, no emotions, moves on to the next trade etc.
Once I came over my psycology and emotions of trading, I never saw before in my trading life such an upturn in success. Before when I lost a trade, I was annoyed and peed off, and would scan the charts and make the candles fit in my head to make it a viable trade just so I can try and win back what I lost on the last trade, then ultimately losing that trade too. When I stopped all that, everything turned around, mixed in with never risking 0.5% per trade, my personal amount, 1% is also good, but even for me I say 2% per trade is too much, 5 losers in a row is common in forex, 2% does not sound like alot, but 10% is, a huge amount, $1000 of a 10k account.
I always lurk here still around FF, laugh at some of the crazy stupid systems some people post, especially in the commercial section. Then I come across the very rare thread like this from BK8. First of all trading the daily chart, that is paramount, retail traders are proven to be more succesfull on daily charts. Intra-day trading is for the banks, they stop-hunt, liquidate the orders and take them for themselves, then the users blame the broker for stop hunting haha. With daily you miss all this noise.
Then the simplicity, 1 candle crossing 1 line, granted there is some discretion, if anything I can input here that is valuable, if when you spot a cross of the moving average, look to the left, if it's a buy, has it closed above past resistance, if it has this now becomes support and will give you extra security in the trade. Looking back at some losers on here, over half of them could've been avoided by using this along. If you are buying but the close of the candle has closed below resistance, do not enter, also if you don't enter, DO NOT look at the chart the next day to see if you might or might not be in profit if you took the trade, just forget about it, and concentrate on the trades you have taken, the ones you didn't will make no difference to your account, you don't need to worry about it.
Obviously for a sell reverse it, if it closes below a support level excellent, this now become resistence and will be an extra layer of security for your trade, that is pretty much the only discretion (apart from huge news releases of course) that I would worry about for now.
Wow I have rambled on, I guess I miss helping people here, it's a lonely place being a retail trader where I live miles away from London
I shall shut up now, I hope someone somewhere got a little bit of enlightment somewhere from this post, have a great weekend
- #670
- Aug 27, 2016 7:56am Aug 27, 2016 7:56am
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Senior Member - Pro FX Trader | 2,736 Posts
Following from my last post, we see a signal here on AUDUSD (highlight in blue)
Here we can spot the more high probability setup. Red line is pivot point, support turns into resistence and vice versa, see how many times price bounced off this area (highlighted with red arrows) this area seems very important.
Now look 2 candles back from our signal candle, we also have a sell signal, but with what I have said, I would not have took this, as it failed to close below support, so you will have that support to battle through before even thinking about getting in any profit, and ultimately look what happened it come off support and would've come up and stopped you out. This is actually a perfect chart, as I can show you a losing trade and a winner on one chart by closely monitering the pivot areas.
Now lets look at the next signal candle highlighted in blue, comes back below the ma and also closes "SOLIDLY" below this support, which will now become resistance, unlike the other signal that stopped you out, have a look at the next 4 candles, they cannot now get above this new resistence area, what a defence to have, every time it tried, sells heavily come in and sold it off creating those bearish wicks. If you are in this trade and followed BK8's stop loss procedure 15 pips above signal candle high) you would now be very much nicely in profit, even with the heavy friday news our defence of the new resistence prevented price closing above and created a lovely looking Bearish engulfing bar for possibly further moves to the downside.
If anyone has any questions or does not understand just let me know and I shall help further
Here we can spot the more high probability setup. Red line is pivot point, support turns into resistence and vice versa, see how many times price bounced off this area (highlighted with red arrows) this area seems very important.
Now look 2 candles back from our signal candle, we also have a sell signal, but with what I have said, I would not have took this, as it failed to close below support, so you will have that support to battle through before even thinking about getting in any profit, and ultimately look what happened it come off support and would've come up and stopped you out. This is actually a perfect chart, as I can show you a losing trade and a winner on one chart by closely monitering the pivot areas.
Now lets look at the next signal candle highlighted in blue, comes back below the ma and also closes "SOLIDLY" below this support, which will now become resistance, unlike the other signal that stopped you out, have a look at the next 4 candles, they cannot now get above this new resistence area, what a defence to have, every time it tried, sells heavily come in and sold it off creating those bearish wicks. If you are in this trade and followed BK8's stop loss procedure 15 pips above signal candle high) you would now be very much nicely in profit, even with the heavy friday news our defence of the new resistence prevented price closing above and created a lovely looking Bearish engulfing bar for possibly further moves to the downside.
If anyone has any questions or does not understand just let me know and I shall help further
- #673
- Aug 27, 2016 9:51am Aug 27, 2016 9:51am
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Senior Member - Pro FX Trader | 2,736 Posts
- #675
- Aug 27, 2016 10:10am Aug 27, 2016 10:10am
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Senior Member - Pro FX Trader | 2,736 Posts
- #677
- Edited 11:02am Aug 27, 2016 10:51am | Edited 11:02am
- Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,533 Posts
Hello BK8 and thanks for your sharing I hope I can join this thread too
SMA can be shifted forward or backward using shift postive and negative value.
e.g. I have added 3 SMA as follwoing
SMA 5, 3
SMA 5,0
SMA 5,-3
You will notice that SMA 5,3 does better prediction however when I was checking old charts SMA 5,0 does better jobs in some cases as well.
