Cable Update (GBPUSD)

I went short a little earlier, if it reverses I'll go out quickly.

Pay attention (near support and divergence in m15) ...Look as the price action behaves

Could hit 3.1900

nearly at 4pm fix

I'D like to see testing back up to 1.3270 area before the final count down

Bit of vol to send it down - we have not had lower prices- still up

no volume on up bar - out

Closed all my trades early for the week

Technically, there might be some long opportunities coming very soon next week,
Yellens speech at Jackson Hole on Friday chances she'll echo the hawkish views of Dudley and Fischer

Dah.... Thanks

Nice trades, i am looking your trade explorer, Why you do not use stop loss?

Yellen - who knows. We are just going to have to wait and see-
There has been some reasonable figures this week - so hopefully she will be more hawkish
As long as she comes out with something - then at least there will be some volatility in the market

Out of all trades for tonight. Up 224 pips for the week. If I had not lost 80 pips mainly scalping then I would be 320+. May not trade tomorrow depending on the news. I'm getting better at this stuff however a long way to go. Time for a beer.

Good luck

Wonder if we will re-test 1.317- might take a while

I have found one post. The post was written by HIDDENGAP many years ago.
The post is about NEWS.

I think, this writings will be very helpful for everyone.

The text is as follows.

The BBs use the news to position themselves against the herd. The news usually generates high volume and the BBs need to be active when volume is high, so they don't push price up or down against themselves.

When thinking about the news, we should break it down into two broad categories:

1. General news. This is a broad category and encompasses many things. Things like CBS evening news doing stories on "oil supplies are tight and many analysts see prices going to $200.00 a barrel". Or the cover of Newsweek proclaiming dollar weakness.

VSA tells us that we should be contrarians in such situations-When The cover of Time says the bull is back, it probably means a top is near. The oil market in '08 gave a nice End of a Rising Market signal even as many analysts were in the news prognosticating "super spikes" in the price.

2. News reports. Here we are talking about those scheduled releases like Durable goods, Non farm payrolls, GDP, Trade balances, Fed minutes and consumer confidence to name just a few.

With such news reports, the "bullishness or bearishness" of the report matters little. We are not looking to trade the report, but the reaction to the report.
Take a look at the first chart below.

Since we know the BBs use such reports to take their positions, we can pretty much assume that we are dealing with a key change in the supply/demand dynamic. At 0830 jobless claims were released.

We see a wide spread up candle on climatic volume closing off the high with the next candle down. This is weakness. Did the report come in less than expected? Don't know. Don't care. The SM is selling on this candle whatever the case may be. Therefore we should be looking to get short.

With a bit of momentum, price moves up. It knocks up against some resistance (a prior supply/demand delta zone) and then rolls over. As price enters the zone created by the news release candle, we are looking for our low volume sign. Price is now making lower lows and lower highs. From a candle perspective, we are seeing dark (close<open) candles.

Then our old friend shows up: a narrow range up bar on volume less than the previous two candles-No Demand. Ideal trade location. After climatic action and after a change in trend.

Now take a look at the second chart.

Again, we have a news release at 0830 hrs. This time it is Durable goods. On the report we see a wide spread down candle on climatic volume closing off the low. However, the next candle is down. But take a look at that next candle. The volume is lower and the close is in the upper 1/3 of the range. This is a strong candle and tells us there must have been some buying in the first candle. And more buying came in on this candle as it makes a lower low, but closes so high within its range.

Did the report exceed expectations? Don't know. Don't care. What we do care about is the fact that the BBs are buying.
Price begins to move up on low volume (volume less than the previous two), but we have seen strength in the background. These no demand candles (by definition) represent merely a pause and are not signs to go short.

Eventually we see a nice Key Reversal Bar (KRB). This candle makes a lower low, opens higher than the previous close, and closes higher than both its open and the previous candle's close. Note it also closes slightly off its high, which is a good thing for this particular reversal bar type. An aggressive trader could get long here. A better place to get long occurs two candles later when we see a narrow range down candle that makes a lower low and closes in the upper portion of its range on volume less than the previous two candles-a Test.

By the time we see this test, the market has made a swing point. In other words, the trend is now up. So we have seen climatic action and a change in trend followed by a test. This is our low volume signal within the range of a previously high volume candle.

When dealing with category 1, the prudent trader should beware of the news.

When dealing with category 2, the prudent trader should be aware of the news (release).

Best
D.P.

my chart shows 1.3160 is a reversal point, or that it will continue down to 1.3030.. hope bulls win the day

Started to bounce - got some pips

What's the forecast for tmrrw as 3 major gonna be out .9:30 second estimated GDP, 1:30 prelim GDP [ USD] & at 3 pm yell end speech

Nice Charts man usig volume, a question, how do you post your pictures ? looks very clear, i am usin screen hunter and lightshot but is not clear

These picture were taken many years ago and I do not remember what tool was used.
But now I am using Snagit - it is the best tool I have ever used.

Best
D.P.