The Really Useless Thread | Page 7121 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,401
  • Aug 17, 2016 6:43am Aug 17, 2016 6:43am
Quoting sisse
Yes I was that so many traders were still so strongly short bias. Yes I was expecting a test to the 1.13xx handle. ... sisse
I see nothing wrong with well planned selling- becouse it was TOP of mid range and also in better content with mid term ...imo that's why so many decided to go short, including me- it feels better if short term is in content with mid term.
But then comes trade management, so when I was in nice profits, I was putting SL to BE ( not this time with my open trade becouse we are coming towards the extreme and I like it if PA Will get higher). Sure, the news spike went thru a bit and I closed first EP in small red, but at that time my pending sell higher got triggered and this one I closed nicely green when there were signs of bullish...
I guess that with good map and plan works both ways...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiH1.png Size: 83 KB
PVSRA
  • #142,402
  • Aug 17, 2016 6:46am Aug 17, 2016 6:46am
Quoting Pharm0r
I personally pulled 100 out of that iteration and 200 from the one before? perhaps taking profits on the way instead of just waiting for tp would have served some of you better...nothing wrong with taking profits.. Personally on 25 trade streak (roughly half gu and eu) since May and the beginning of these iterations (although I am not trading them directly)- but it seems I am on the right side, and if that's the case then draw down doesn't really matter as direction and outlook is the same....so how could you lose? Assuming proper mm.....a 100 pip...
Agree with all!!
PVSRA
  • #142,403
  • Aug 17, 2016 6:47am Aug 17, 2016 6:47am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Agree with all!!
Thank you Fisher, I hope that post didn't come off as me preaching- just trying to offer my own personal take on the iterations and sisse fundamental training sessions
  • #142,404
  • Aug 17, 2016 6:59am Aug 17, 2016 6:59am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Thank you Fisher, I hope that post didn't come off as me preaching- just trying to offer my own personal take on the iterations and sisse fundamental training sessions
Yeah...we still have to learn much from him that's why we are all here.

And no, I don't think it is preaching, becouse every trader must find the way to adjust - it takes time and expirience and never ending learning process...
PVSRA
  • #142,405
  • Aug 17, 2016 7:05am Aug 17, 2016 7:05am
Quoting sisse
In the iteration 17, the key point is highlighting that we have changed to Neutral and although staying sidelined was definitively a good option, the 'best' technical call if you have to take a decision was going long around the flip instead of FADING it.
This is probably an obvious question to most, but lately I've been confused about it.

What is the general definition of being 'neutral'?

I thought changing an outlook to 'neutral' was based on non-volatile FA news for a base or the quote currency in a pair.

I checked the back posts and found a comment by @Hoom:
"on higher TFs [the current range without clear breakout on any side ie neutral]"

So, is being neutral dependent on:

(a) FA news drivers (or lack of)
(b) TA range containment
(c) both
(d) neither

In the iteration screenshot I noticed tags where the outlook was changed from a 'sell' to a 'neutral' outlook just before iteration #17. I just want to be reminded about the reason for the outlook update.

Thanks.
  • #142,406
  • Aug 17, 2016 7:08am Aug 17, 2016 7:08am
I am glad @ Pharm0r, Fisher755 and few others they recognise that there are endless opps in the market and is 'irrelevant' the exact levels to trade but rather the risk management is the key.

The whole point of mapping trades and outlooks is to minimise risk and maximize winning ℅ not to establish a rigid TA system.

There is always money to be made in both sides at any given time in markets. However, depending on the circumstances there is more or less risk and worst and better odds taking one side or the other ...

Anybody can be a trader but very few can be consistent traders....and thats where understanding outlooks and direction pays off...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,407
  • Aug 17, 2016 7:11am Aug 17, 2016 7:11am
Quoting sisse
I am glad @ Pharm0r, Fisher755 and few others they recognise that there are endless opps in the market and is 'irrelevant' the exact levels to trade but rather the risk management is the key. The whole point of mapping trades and outlooks is to minimise risk and maximize winning ℅ not to establish a rigid TA system. There is always money to be made in both sides at any given time in markets. However, depending on the circumstances there is more...
Of course, counting the risk is more important than counting profits...but think, if we would all get it right then it would be no fun attending your classes.
I have to admit that I have a looooooooooooooooot to learn about higher TFs trading.

Quoting Fisher755
-> LMT SELL 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.098x | TP2 => 1.081x | TP3 => 1.068x | STP => 1.128x | max r:r -=> (+)5:1* Cool idea, I'll trade it live too, using 3 bullets max every cca 25 pips from here to average up in case of DD. But honestly, atm I would not sell yet, would wait a while more...tricky Sisse again.
Yeah, it was tricky indeed!
PVSRA
  • #142,408
  • Edited 7:42am Aug 17, 2016 7:30am | Edited 7:42am
Quoting sisse
As you well know the point is not trading everything that moves. Because there is a potential trade TA trade (there are thousand every week) doesn't mean you need to take it. Consistency is in managing risk not in shooting at every potential move. Staying aside was also a 100% valid option for live trading in my books too.
Thank you for the very clear answers to my questions, Sisse. Much appreciated. Yes, "fade the middle" was the wrong term in this context (price coming from below), I just picked it up from your iterations chart without thinking sorry.

I know that the right thing to do in Iteration #17 would be for me to take profit at this level (1.1280) before the Minutes, rather than hold out for intial TP of 1.1380. In live I would take half off if I could, but I only traded 1 contract (due to low conviction) so it's all or nothing! The thing that swings it for me is that I'm short GU, so I want to leave my EU long on as insurance against a weaker dollar. But I've moved SL to 1.1160 in case it goes the other way. Long story short, I'll leave my trade on for the purpose of the iteration (option 'b') despite it not being the wisest thing to do in terms of the map and outlook. Thanks

Edit: Should point out that I can't trade the Minutes realtime because they come out at 3:00 in the morning here. So I just set my orders and hope for the best!
You reap what you sow.
  • #142,409
  • Edited 8:08am Aug 17, 2016 7:57am | Edited 8:08am
Quoting IMARICH1
I am more confused now... I do better with visual aides. I need to see a SELL OUTLOOK FLIP, BUY OUTLOOK FLIP and NEUTRAL OUTLOOK
I was trawling the back posts looking for other answers and came across this post on June 8th
by @chester123 showing his flip charts in neutral and sell outlooks.

I thought it might help, but if you have already seen it (or it isn't what you meant) then no probs:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8969392

Now that I've re-read that thread, my reply to your question back then was probably incorrect.
  • #142,410
  • Aug 17, 2016 8:26am Aug 17, 2016 8:26am
Given the good and healthy conversation triggered in the last few pages. Lets open a bit of different approach for the last 3 iterations.

+++++Opening PRE table for the 8th Iteration in the second round to get in synch with the market +++++


-->PRE question 18: Lets take all training wheels for this iteration. What is the outlook in the Euro for the Minutes today:

a. Outlook BUY
b. Outlook NEUTRAL
c. Outlook SELL

Inviting all previous participants, good, struggling, amateur & seasoned traders, lurkers, haters and leeches to participate. For the scanning question, just choose a, b or c. We'll base question and map LIVE according to the answers instead of my opinion.

Feel free to jump in before +/- the European close before moving to the question...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,411
  • Aug 17, 2016 8:33am Aug 17, 2016 8:33am
B
  • #142,412
  • Aug 17, 2016 8:35am Aug 17, 2016 8:35am
No hikes are expected, and likely slight hawkish to neutral FED tone. EU macro fundamentals are still a sell as compared to US, so buying isn't an option for me.

therefor I'm going with B going into the minutes- subject to change after

Full disclosure, I'm already in sell for EU that is in drawdown- so just managing what I already have as I chose my poison earlier in the week once EU shot up. Expecting a return to gravity
  • #142,413
  • Aug 17, 2016 8:35am Aug 17, 2016 8:35am
#B#
  • #142,414
  • Aug 17, 2016 8:38am Aug 17, 2016 8:38am
b. Outlook NEUTRAL
  • #142,415
  • Aug 17, 2016 8:42am Aug 17, 2016 8:42am
Some hawkish chatter yesterday (although seemingly ignored by currency markets) makes me think it was a bit of a prelude for the minutes today . Leaning towards C.
  • #142,416
  • Aug 17, 2016 8:49am Aug 17, 2016 8:49am
Would prefer to sell around 1.1380, so for now neutral
  • #142,417
  • Edited 9:07am Aug 17, 2016 8:49am | Edited 9:07am
b. Outlook NEUTRAL

My reasoning:
- my mid-term bias is short, but ECB isn't offering any further dovish sentiment for the moment
- short term market appears to be somewhat bullish
- unclear whether FED tone will be more of the same or more hawkish
- I prefer to wait for a hawkish FED confirmation to have a SELL EURO outlook.
  • #142,418
  • Aug 17, 2016 9:07am Aug 17, 2016 9:07am
Unfortunately can't participate in Q18 because I'm swicthing off now. But for what it's worth I'll answer B (neutral) for the pre-Q.
You reap what you sow.
  • #142,419
  • Aug 17, 2016 9:07am Aug 17, 2016 9:07am
Both side play will be there ...

So going with option B ... but will give a good indication of mid term trend

All the best to all who are playing ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #142,420
  • Aug 17, 2016 9:11am Aug 17, 2016 9:11am
Short term outlook is A and mid-term is B
Here is my rationale:
1- No hike for US internal reasons (i.e., Election; need to borrow money to implement Trump/Clinton economic Plans (bonds at low rate); data up and down...)
2- Ne hike to take into consideration the worldwide struggling economy: good father behavior
3- Therefore Risk is ON which is against the market expectation.
8 traders viewing now