The Really Useless Thread
- #142,383
- Aug 16, 2016 2:32pm Aug 16, 2016 2:32pm
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
- #142,389
- Aug 16, 2016 3:46pm Aug 16, 2016 3:46pm
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts
Ok two points:
The flip in general (i think somebody else defined in better words before in the thread ) is the TA area of no return in which long or shorts start getting stronger or they are about to give up and flip the risk:reward to the other side.
In order to spot it effectively try a few historical charts in the main (mid term direction) so they are clear and useful for live trading in whatever instrument but stick to high liquid pairs/instruments to make things easier to grasp.
A couple of hint questions to ask yourself are:
1. At what point TA wise one side stop making sense and the other start making sense.
2. Where +/- in the current leg markets started buying or selling. In the case of the example, you can clearly see that buyers (whoever and for whatever reason) that started buying at the begging of the flip are holding the hand and every retrace holds making new highs until it rejects and flips ....
Here is one more time the flip example when we change to outlook sell.
The second point is a micro technicality we have discussed many times that is the concept of "extending the lows or highs". The chart is self-explanatory but they key point is that recognising the difference between a BREAK and EXTENSION of highs and lows. Seem irrelevant but most of the TA flows and traps has its root in traders failing to recognise the difference and obviously on higher TF extension can be as large as few hundred ticks !!!!....
Now as you can see the most important part TA wise is defining the range and second defining the flip. If you add the outlook to it you can start planning trades. For example even if the Range top is far from price the fact that we switched to shorts (for whatever reason irrelevant for this discussion) it should automatically force you to thing about entries.
-> Assume the outlook changed above and you recognised on time around Point A in the traditional change to short term outlook setup.
-> You missed the chip tickets and you want to take around the flip around point B.
-> Now what would you do in point C.
sisse
The flip in general (i think somebody else defined in better words before in the thread ) is the TA area of no return in which long or shorts start getting stronger or they are about to give up and flip the risk:reward to the other side.
In order to spot it effectively try a few historical charts in the main (mid term direction) so they are clear and useful for live trading in whatever instrument but stick to high liquid pairs/instruments to make things easier to grasp.
A couple of hint questions to ask yourself are:
1. At what point TA wise one side stop making sense and the other start making sense.
2. Where +/- in the current leg markets started buying or selling. In the case of the example, you can clearly see that buyers (whoever and for whatever reason) that started buying at the begging of the flip are holding the hand and every retrace holds making new highs until it rejects and flips ....
Here is one more time the flip example when we change to outlook sell.
The second point is a micro technicality we have discussed many times that is the concept of "extending the lows or highs". The chart is self-explanatory but they key point is that recognising the difference between a BREAK and EXTENSION of highs and lows. Seem irrelevant but most of the TA flows and traps has its root in traders failing to recognise the difference and obviously on higher TF extension can be as large as few hundred ticks !!!!....
Now as you can see the most important part TA wise is defining the range and second defining the flip. If you add the outlook to it you can start planning trades. For example even if the Range top is far from price the fact that we switched to shorts (for whatever reason irrelevant for this discussion) it should automatically force you to thing about entries.
-> Assume the outlook changed above and you recognised on time around Point A in the traditional change to short term outlook setup.
-> You missed the chip tickets and you want to take around the flip around point B.
-> Now what would you do in point C.
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
- #142,391
- Edited 5:37pm Aug 16, 2016 5:26pm | Edited 5:37pm
- Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Quo | 1,587 Posts
- #142,393
- Edited Aug 17, 2016 4:16am Aug 16, 2016 6:52pm | Edited Aug 17, 2016 4:16am
- Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Quo | 1,587 Posts
- #142,394
- Aug 16, 2016 8:49pm Aug 16, 2016 8:49pm
- Joined May 2013 | Status: Digging deeper | 653 Posts
The flip in general (i think somebody else defined in better words before in the thread ) is the TA area of no return in which long or shorts start getting stronger or they are about to give up and flip the risk:reward to the other side.
About the current flip:
--> Yes absolutely. My exact area was around 1.116x but I can see why you choose 1.118/9x instead. In general is the same area but you are choosing the Resistance in play instead of the rejection and failure. At the end it wouldn't have made any difference (and it wont in any case except for a dozen +/- ticks)
The problem I had was not defining the range the correctly. Because this was a short-term iteration I looked at the daily chart and defined the range as between about 1.1180 (top) and 1.0980 (bottom). I didn't go far enough back, because you define the top at about 1.1420 (going back to June). So that's why my flip was so much lower at 1.1080.
I suppose a question/discussion from this is how far back do we go when defining our range, in terms of short-term, mid-term and long-term maps?
Next, this current iteration (#17) was started just after price "broke" the flip. Actually it broke it a few bars earlier too, but basically it was whipsawing around the flip at the start of the iteration. What's more, the price was in the middle of the range (with short-term outlook neutral) and no clear confirmation from the chart whether the flip would hold or not. So:
1) Why did you give us only two choices (long or short), and not the third option of doing nothing? Surely doing nothing would have been the better option in this case, until price had shown its hand and entered the cheap ticket zone?
2) From your comments you seemed a little surprised that so many chose short, and that you expected the move above 1.1280. So did you also trade long in live? And again, what made you fade the middle instead of waiting for the outside in outlook neutral?
Thanks. I hope the answers to these questions aren't too obvious to everyone and I'm not wasting your time
You reap what you sow.
- #142,399
- Aug 17, 2016 6:16am Aug 17, 2016 6:16am
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
- #142,400
- Aug 17, 2016 6:37am Aug 17, 2016 6:37am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
