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The Really Useless Thread

  • #142,221
  • Aug 8, 2016 11:26am Aug 8, 2016 11:26am
Quoting sisse
...and I will take that in OIL clearing first target on the test 41.8x. Well done all that took it from the lows of the $40 handle.
A v. basic and soft day across the board. Clearing 2nd target in OIL testing the $43.xx handle with Europe going home while Euro and Sterling as suspected since the morning unable to find interest to break down. We are set to hold on in more chop till the FED Minutes.

On US equities 2200.xx and beyond naked for a test. S&P 'behaving' nicely and for the 2nd time this month is 'choose your poison time' short term in US Equities to complete (although there is no real TA limit to the top side until further data) the CBs / superb NFP combo ....

Here flattening short term positions only in Euro, aggressively trailing Sterling in case it trips itself of the cliff on inertia while on the rest of the board nothing to see or do for today ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,222
  • Aug 8, 2016 12:45pm Aug 8, 2016 12:45pm
Hi Siise: What is your target for Oil?
  • #142,223
  • Aug 9, 2016 3:15am Aug 9, 2016 3:15am
Sterling drifting on its own weight. Watch-out GU as any push from reports could trigger the capitulation leg even with soft news and in unconventional trading times. Eyes on UK news today before session is over for a quick test of 1.294x as i'ts the last very feeble support in play....below its just nothing but air...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,224
  • Aug 9, 2016 4:10am Aug 9, 2016 4:10am
Soft numbers from the Uk but nothing out of expectations.....

Session pretty over, expecting Sterling to test the lows on inertia ....not much to see or do till NY.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,225
  • Aug 9, 2016 7:24am Aug 9, 2016 7:24am
Sterling and Euro losing foot at key levels in a thin european session. Watch-out for soft stops hands getting wiped out with NY. GU will drag the FX board with it until it finds foot ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,226
  • Aug 9, 2016 8:23am Aug 9, 2016 8:23am
--> A quick update on the iterations before NY. Well done to Fadhl finally clearing last position open in Iteration 13 ...

--> In Iteration 15 only Fadhl left as he played the reverso in GOLD the rest stopped out or clearing all on there remaining after the test 133x.x.

Two points here:

  1. one more time to Fadhl well done on clearing but as the last case does it make sense playing the reverso?. I hope you get it and you avoid getting stuck with a short term swing for over month ....
  2. To wrap up, I think this one was a beautiful and perfect textbook example on how to start understanding FA factors. For those who asked and interested track back posts for references. The iteration was made for the BOE / NFP combo. The matrix in play was super simple as both reports/news were strong and on expectations. In a nutshell:

    1. BOE bazooka -> Gold up via monetary policy and risk | FED massive overshoot -> Gold down on FED hikes (Monetary Policy) === end result === Gold Neutral in chop at break out point.
    2. An excellent case to start grasping other basic FA plays until correlation and basic macro impacts and expectations are easier to grasp.

--> Iteration 16 very well done Vorex, eborn and PAStalker playing the compression in volatility in Euro has/is paying handsomely for those who know how to trade it. On the rest, Longs out, betting against the main direction with FA supporting it is never a good idea. For those shorts, all open ...

sisse

Quoting sisse
... Iteration 13 ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.114x++++ "Panic" (Elapsed Time 12 hours 27 days) -> LMT BUY 1.102x [check] -> TP1 => 1.122x [check]| TP2 => 1.1420 | STP => 1.092x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1* Fadhl Just one and only one comment here @Fadhl. Sure a winner but does it really make

Iteration 13

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.108x++++

"Panic"

(TOTAL TIME 16 hours 29 days)


-> LMT BUY 1.102x [check] -> TP1 => 1.122x [check]| TP2 => 1.1420 | STP => 1.092x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Fadhl


Quoting sisse
...x++++ Iteration 15 "All that glitters is not gold ...or may it is" Update 2..

a++++Currently GOLD is trading 1330.xx++++

Iteration 15

"All that glitters is not gold ...or may it is"

Update 3 (Elapsed time 7 day 4 hours)

-> LMT BUY 1330.x [check] -> TP1 => 1360.x [check] |TP2 => 1410.x | TP3 => 1490.x | STP => 1300.xx | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*

TP1 hit and stopped out 1330.xx on the remaining with NFP

aEarleone

DexterMorgan

ptoftangency

rattyo

manosk


TP1 hit and cleared 1345.xx on the remaining with NFP

goosebone

PAStalker


Cleared all 1360.x and played the 'reverso' short TP1 => 1300.x | TP2 => 1250.x | STP => 1360.xx |

Fadhl


Quoting sisse
.... Iteration 16 ++++Currently EURO is trading 1.114x++++ (Elapsed Time 4 days 12 hours) "arghh revenge, calm or I am done with it" -> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.135x | TP2 => 1.155x TP1 => 1.138x | STP => 1.1080 | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Iteration 16

++++Currently EURO is trading 1.108x++++

(Elapsed Time 7 days 12 hours)

"arghh revenge, calm or I am done with it"


-> LMT BUY 1.115x -> TP1 => 1.135x | TP2 => 1.155x TP1 => 1.138x | STP => 1.1080 | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

manosk

Ghandi


-> No touch 1.125x / 1.105x (till BOE) [check] -> TP2 => No touch 1.1350 | 1.095x [check](till NFP) max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

Vorex

eborn

PAStalker


-> LMT SELL 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.098x | TP2 => 1.078x | STP => 1.128x | max r:r -=> (+)4:1*

primejarvis

Fadhl

Fisher755

IMARICH1

Pharm0r

Replicant

pmmebids

glassblower

Earleone

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,227
  • Aug 9, 2016 8:42am Aug 9, 2016 8:42am
Quoting sisse
{quote}Simple ride and right on time for the open, brexit lows tested clearing first target in GU 1.312x making a lot easier for managing remaining... Well done all shorts from the 1.33xx handle ...

sisse
...and I will take that !!! a handful of ticks before target ('don't be a dick for a tick rules apply' in this case). Double whammy here in Sterling clearing main short term target on the test 1.295x time and clearing final target on the BOE flow play. Superb and simple ride in GU.

Game, Set but not Match yet. Here, trailing remaining mid term positions and leaving the last target open on the short term swing in case Sterling just give up on its own and very heavy weight without further data (not that we need it after the BOE).

Well done all riding from above, I know a few on this board....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,228
  • Aug 9, 2016 9:08am Aug 9, 2016 9:08am
EU seeing some relief, perhaps shorts can find some good positioning before friday
  • #142,229
  • Aug 9, 2016 9:38am Aug 9, 2016 9:38am
Quoting Pharm0r
EU seeing some relief, perhaps shorts can find some good positioning before friday
We are trading thin markets in FX with equities still to complete the leg from the BOE/NFP and ready to blow the highs ... Equities in the driver seat till the Minutes will hold currencies ....so agree I don't expect Sterling becoming the party pooper this week until global equities on steroids finish the happy ride..

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,230
  • Aug 9, 2016 8:25pm Aug 9, 2016 8:25pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} We are trading thin markets in FX with equities still to complete the leg from the BOE/NFP and ready to blow the highs ... Equities in the driver seat till the Minutes will hold currencies ....so agree I don't expect Sterling becoming the party pooper this week until global equities on steroids finish the happy ride.. sisse
Speaking of equities, s&p500 has a norm from 1668 to 1542, if this rally tops out at 2199 it would be a good nod for the norm indicated.

Will be switching my retirement accounts to 90% equities if we see that number some day, currently bond heavy and light on equities
  • #142,231
  • Aug 10, 2016 3:04am Aug 10, 2016 3:04am
M - Sell signal over 1.13xxx
H4 - Sell signal at ~ 1.115xx

W - Buy signal at ~ 1.11xxx
D - Buy signal at ~ 1.108xx
f(z)=z2+c
  • #142,232
  • Aug 10, 2016 5:12am Aug 10, 2016 5:12am
Active session across the board with a big game changer cooking on the background. Early this year we got some soft signals in Japan, then in the EZ with the ECB but this last one with the BOE massive flop in the bond markets (here a soft reference from the FT for those interested) is sending shockwaves in the market.

--> We are starting to witness since early July the consequences of overextended and extreme loose monetary policy and negative rates. Sadly this will be the worst time for a flop there especially in the UK and Europe.

A major shake in the bond markets will cause destruction to say the least in the effectiveness of the BOE (and ECB and BOJ to lesser extend) to contain the Brexit shock the next couple of quarters and we already have some noise of a further cut to negative rates if things don't work out as planned as early as next meeting.

--> Last time we had something similar on the structural level was back on July and we broke ATH and fly 10% rally in Equities with markets ignoring macro alerts and riding the PIG (rate cuts, QE and all that). This is the second time but this time we are already squeeze most if not all of the juice from free money.

Things getting very very very scary on the macro and structural front for September onwards. BOE flop in the bond market is just the tip of the iceberg of what is cooking behind this last free money ride:

For early but major structural FA alerts reasons:

-> Changing short term outlook in UK and European Equities from buy to neutral

-> Changing mid term outlook in GOLD from neutral to buy

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,233
  • Edited 7:25am Aug 10, 2016 7:02am | Edited 7:25am
Bond markets starting to shake the board on the very inner macro structures of the market. We are going to get some good movers and shakers across the board in the next few sessions.

We haven't have a short term swing in Euro in play for a few weeks already (only choppy news flows trades for over a month...) but we are finally back, signalling that end of summer trading is around the corner. I would also like to complete the 20 iterations soon to invite the top 20 traders to the new challenge....


+++++Opening table for the 7nd Iteration in the second round to GET BACK in synch with the market short term+++++


--> Question 17: Euro has been particularly choppy for the last 6 weeks, the compression range is going to blow soon, one way or the other. Are you in synch with the Euro?

This iteration is a live trading set variation with a proper R:R. It's titled: "THE FLIP" and its aim to introduce pure Price Action as TA reference.

--> Choose your poison ASAP. Any lurkers that want to play/learn with this test feel free to jump in..no middle points no nothing. Winner takes all. Updates will come in later...

Only 2 options for this iteration as the purpose of this iteration is not about volatility. No time limit for longs or shorts:

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.118x++++

"THE FLIP"

Iteration 17


-> LMT BUY 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.138x | TP2 => 1.145x | | TP3 => 1.168x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*


-> LMT SELL 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.098x | TP2 => 1.081x | TP3 => 1.068x | STP => 1.128x | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,234
  • Aug 10, 2016 7:19am Aug 10, 2016 7:19am
Quoting sisse
Bond markets starting to shake the board on the very inner macro structures of the market. We are going to get some good movers and shakers across the board in the next few sessions. We haven't have a short term swing in Euro in play for a few weeks already (only choppy news flows trades for over a month...) but we are finally back, signalling that end of summer trading is around the corner. I would also like to complete the 20 iterations soon to invite the top 20 traders to the new challenge.... +++++Opening table for the 7nd Iteration in the second...
Looks like you mixed Buy and Sell TPs and SL.
PVSRA
  • #142,235
  • Edited 7:34am Aug 10, 2016 7:22am | Edited 7:34am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Looks like you mixed Buy and Sell TPs and SL.
je je yeap ....fixed...thx...

sisse

Thanks goosebone .... as always the 1st to call is always the hardest. GL if you are taking it live ....

IN

++++Currently Euro is trading 1.118x++++

"THE FLIP"

Iteration 17


-> LMT BUY 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.138x | TP2 => 1.145x | | TP3 => 1.168x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*

goosebone

DexterMorgan

Ghandi


-> LMT SELL 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.098x | TP2 => 1.081x | TP3 => 1.068x | STP => 1.128x | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*

Fisher755

fxtrader18

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #142,236
  • Aug 10, 2016 7:22am Aug 10, 2016 7:22am
I will buy please. Trading this one live.
  • #142,237
  • Aug 10, 2016 7:29am Aug 10, 2016 7:29am
-> LMT SELL 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.098x | TP2 => 1.081x | TP3 => 1.068x | STP => 1.128x | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*
Cool idea, I'll trade it live too, using 3 bullets max every cca 25 pips from here to average up in case of DD.

But honestly, atm I would not sell yet, would wait a while more...tricky Sisse again.
PVSRA
  • #142,238
  • Aug 10, 2016 7:30am Aug 10, 2016 7:30am
Quoting sisse
Bond markets starting to shake the board on the very inner macro structures of the market. We are going to get some good movers and shakers across the board in the next few sessions. We haven't have a short term swing in Euro in play for a few weeks already (only choppy news flows trades for over a month...) but we are finally back, signalling that end of summer trading is around the corner. I would also like to complete the 20 iterations soon to invite the top 20 traders to the new challenge.... +++++Opening table for the 7nd Iteration in the second...

Hi Sisse,

Buy please.

Thanks.
  • #142,239
  • Aug 10, 2016 7:30am Aug 10, 2016 7:30am
-> LMT SELL 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.098x | TP2 => 1.081x | TP3 => 1.068x | STP => 1.128x | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*
  • #142,240
  • Aug 10, 2016 7:32am Aug 10, 2016 7:32am
Quoting sisse
{quote} je je yeap ....fixed...thx... sisse Thanks goosebone .... as always the 1st to call is always the hardest. GL if you are taking it live .... IN ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.118x++++ "THE FLIP" Iteration 17 -> LMT BUY 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.138x | TP2 => 1.145x | | TP3 => 1.168x | STP => 1.108x | max r:r -=> (+)5:1* goosebone -> LMT SELL 1.118x -> TP1 => 1.098x | TP2 => 1.081x | TP3 => 1.068x | STP => 1.128x | max r:r -=> (+)5:1*
If I'm allowed to join I'm in the buy side
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