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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #435,061
  • Jul 25, 2016 6:30am Jul 25, 2016 6:30am
Quoting mades
You can see how heavily is GU manipulated lately by observing the price last ~5 minutes of an hour. Often the hourly shape of the candle completely changes during this period. They tried it also today but price wasnt able to breach the previous one and daily pivot and once the new hour started we saw that 25 pip drop (which happened in like 20 seconds).
Well in this case it was the CBI Industrial Trend Survey that caused the Pound to drop 25 pips just after the release at 11.00am London time.....not that I'm disagreeing with you.
As retail traders we trade on such an insignificant level whereas the big players are trading hundreds of millions or billions and they do move the market to suit their needs.
i.e. Just say you want to buy a valuable British company, if you can push the price down from 1.40 to 1.35 just before you buy it imagine the savings on a multi million pound purchase if your an over seas entity???
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #435,062
  • Jul 25, 2016 6:36am Jul 25, 2016 6:36am
Quoting Lock
{quote} At last!! Finally taken out! What a miserable market. Now is it going to test again the go no go pit bracket low at 31186? Or is it going to remain in rotation mode??
Tested and then went up again. If preUS will open here it will be inside the friday gap low: very complex situation. All targets below still in place from this early morning.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #435,063
  • Jul 25, 2016 6:36am Jul 25, 2016 6:36am
Quoting Mayly-May
Hi anyone know about Federal Funds Rate still 50% or not ?
I think no hike for this year.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #435,064
  • Jul 25, 2016 6:37am Jul 25, 2016 6:37am
Quoting Mayly-May
Hi anyone know about Federal Funds Rate still 50% or not ?
Rate decision due out 27th July 2016 at 2.00p.m US time(E.T or New York Time)

Current rate 0.5
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #435,065
  • Jul 25, 2016 6:38am Jul 25, 2016 6:38am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} Well in this case it was the CBI Industrial Trend Survey that caused the Pound to drop 25 pips just after the release at 11.00am London time.....not that I'm disagreeing with you. As retail traders we trade on such an insignificant level whereas the big players are trading hundreds of millions or billions and they do move the market to suit their needs. i.e. Just say you want to buy a valuable British company, if you can push the price down from 1.40 to 1.35 just before you buy it imagine the savings on a multi million pound purchase if...
I don't really believe news move the market (unless its BIG news). Sure, it triggers the movement, but look today: despite positive news pound lost. So the movement was predefined and i'm sure if we would see the hourly candle close above pivot, price would go up instead of down. GU is pretty technical and obviously the intraday big players know it and move the price according to their needs. Just last week they did it twice: they kept a beautiful pin bar on 1H until the last 2 minutes.
  • #435,066
  • Jul 25, 2016 6:46am Jul 25, 2016 6:46am
Quoting mades
{quote} I don't really believe news move the market (unless its BIG news). Sure, it triggers the movement, but look today: despite positive news pound lost. So the movement was predefined and i'm sure if we would see the hourly candle close above pivot, price would go up instead of down. GU is pretty technical and obviously the intraday big players know it and move the price according to their needs. Just last week they did it twice: they kept a beautiful pin bar on 1H until the last 2 minutes.
As I said I don't disagree with you, the way I see it is not to be concerned about the manipulation either real or imagined but get good and profitable at trading anyway....

CBI Industrial Trends may have had a green -4 but it was still a contraction and seen as so I can only speculate that a certain amount of buyers dumped their orders and what we experienced was a small 'Buy Squeeze'.
As for the other examples you mentioned of pin bar hourlys I can't comment
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #435,067
  • Jul 25, 2016 6:49am Jul 25, 2016 6:49am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I think no hike for this year.
Of the forexlive website:

http://news.forexlive.com/!/kocherla...onger-20160725
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #435,068
  • Jul 25, 2016 6:52am Jul 25, 2016 6:52am
Quoting mades
You can see how heavily is GU manipulated lately by observing the price last ~5 minutes of an hour. Often the hourly shape of the candle completely changes during this period. They tried it also today but price wasnt able to breach the previous one and daily pivot and once the new hour started we saw that 25 pip drop (which happened in like 20 seconds).
Hey Mades in about 4 minutes we'll be able to test your theory...
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #435,069
  • Jul 25, 2016 6:53am Jul 25, 2016 6:53am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} Rate decision due out 27th July 2016 at 2.00p.m US time(E.T or New York Time) Current rate 0.5
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I think no hike for this year.
Thank you i will hold buy too
  • #435,070
  • Jul 25, 2016 6:56am Jul 25, 2016 6:56am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} As I said I don't disagree with you, the way I see it is not to be concerned about the manipulation either real or imagined but get good and profitable at trading anyway.... CBI Industrial Trends may have had a green -4 but it was still a contraction and seen as so I can only speculate that a certain amount of buyers dumped their orders and what we experienced was a small 'Buy Squeeze'. As for the other examples you mentioned of pin bar hourlys I can't comment
Once you start observing 1min charts (i use GU for scalping) you will notice other repeating patterns of price behavior. Protecting the daily open (GMT 00:00) is one of them (as its happening today for example). Thats why i try to avoid scalping during the last minutes of an hour. Time is as essential as is price and S/R levels.

On the other hand, such moves can predict what will happen in the next hour(s). Obviously that doesnt happen every hour but you can notice it here and there.
  • #435,071
  • Jul 25, 2016 7:07am Jul 25, 2016 7:07am
Quoting mades
{quote} Once you start observing 1min charts (i use GU for scalping) you will notice other repeating patterns of price behavior. Protecting the daily open (GMT 00:00) is one of them (as its happening today for example). Thats why i try to avoid scalping during the last minutes of an hour. Time is as essential as is price and S/R levels. On the other hand, such moves can predict what will happen in the next hour(s). Obviously that doesnt happen every hour but you can notice it here and there.

What that last hourly candle says to me is neither the bulls or the bears are in control i.e Indecision Candle and from here price could move in either direction and if pushes above the 5ema and 20ema at 3131 will go higher

But at the moment the 5, 20 and 50EMAs are saying it's heading south
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #435,072
  • Jul 25, 2016 7:07am Jul 25, 2016 7:07am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Tested and then went up again. If preUS will open here it will be inside the friday gap low: very complex situation. All targets below still in place from this early morning.

...preUS opened inside friday gap low with a little gap higher! If this little gap is retraced and the friday gap down is preserved there are possibilities to go down to take all the weak references. If instead this little gap up, for some reason resists and be confirmed by next pit session , weak refs below could be incredibly skipped for now. I do not consider this last one as probable. But, who knows? And were are we now? At the go no go pit bracket low again!
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #435,073
  • Jul 25, 2016 7:13am Jul 25, 2016 7:13am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} What that last hourly candle says to me is neither the bulls or the bears are in control i.e Indecision Candle and from here price could move in either direction and if pushes above the 5ema and 20ema at 3131 will go higher But at the moment the 5, 20 and 50EMAs are saying it's heading south {image}
I'm cautiously bearish for now. 1H closed below daily open / below BB(20) middle MA. If it breaks the previous hourly low we can expect more move down.
  • #435,074
  • Jul 25, 2016 7:18am Jul 25, 2016 7:18am
Quoting mades
{quote} I'm cautiously bearish for now. 1H closed below daily open / below BB(20) middle MA. If it breaks the previous hourly low we can expect more move down.
The first hourly candle of the day gapped up to 3144 but immediately closed the gap down to 3111....
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #435,075
  • Jul 25, 2016 7:22am Jul 25, 2016 7:22am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} The first hourly candle of the day gapped up to 3144 but immediately closed the gap down to 3111....
As you said, either break of 3132 or 3111. And lets hope no fake breakouts, thats another tool they love to use (spring).
  • #435,076
  • Jul 25, 2016 7:23am Jul 25, 2016 7:23am
Quoting mades
{quote} As you said, either break of 3132 or 3111. And lets hope no fake breakouts, thats another tool they love to use (spring).

How many times have I been caught on fake breakouts.......sheeeeez
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #435,077
  • Jul 25, 2016 7:27am Jul 25, 2016 7:27am
Quoting mades
{quote} As you said, either break of 3132 or 3111. And lets hope no fake breakouts, thats another tool they love to use (spring).
You know I always look to the 'Top of the Hour' and the 'Bottom of the Hour' as times whens there is going to be market change...
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #435,078
  • Jul 25, 2016 7:30am Jul 25, 2016 7:30am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} How many times have I been caught on fake breakouts.......sheeeeez
We all had been. There is one advantage of being a scalper, you learn how to change your opinion quickly and reverse the trade without hesitation. Its really hard but im learning slowly .. . Spring fakes are some of the worst ones.
  • #435,079
  • Jul 25, 2016 7:41am Jul 25, 2016 7:41am
16 hours in 55 pips range. In any case if a breakout from here occurres I'll go with it. Note that 3120 is weak as preUS open and half back
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #435,080
  • Jul 25, 2016 8:19am Jul 25, 2016 8:19am
Quoting Lock
16 hours in 55 pips range. In any case if a breakout from here occurres I'll go with it. Note that 3120 is weak as preUS open and half back
Note that Friday pit session has a range of 36 pips one of the narrowest in 2016. And also today gb was very anomalous with its 49 pips.

And it looks like we are going to open today pit somewhere around friday pit unchanged (close): if so, as the name of this reference, nothing is changed from Friday.
Ubi maior minor cessat
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