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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #434,781
  • Jul 20, 2016 4:18am Jul 20, 2016 4:18am
[quote=PaulDaemon;9039275]{quote} Shhh talk to much


too much
  • #434,782
  • Jul 20, 2016 4:34am Jul 20, 2016 4:34am
Quoting iamawaited
{quote} So GU followed the forecast this morning exactly but it has not found bottom yet. it needs to find 2 bottoms before we can sky rocket!!!! HAPPY PIPPIN''''
So i see my FORECASTS are doing 100 percent well... Nice!!!! Lets do this again. 2 Bottoms needed to sky ROCKET!!! GL. Happy Pippin!! Woooh!!!
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Trading Eternal...... Shiny & Chrome!!!!
  • #434,783
  • Edited 4:54am Jul 20, 2016 4:36am | Edited 4:54am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Shhh talk to much {quote} cut my longs already Some good data numbers though
I'm not talking, I'm writing: and if you don't like it you may easily skip it. Regards

note: you gone long yesterday at or before 15:12 (GMT+1) and at that time lowest price was 13109. Considering the fact that price went down today to 13064, in order to survive you have a SL of more then 45 pips ( or no stop loss at all). Then some minutes ago, when max price was around 13167 you confess "cut my longs already". So, admitting you have got the minimum price to buy at 13109 and the max price for your cuts at 13167 you have put in place a position 20 hours ago with a stop loss of at least 45 pips to obtain something like 13167-13109 = 58 pips as profit (at least for your first cut) Is a 1 to 1 position: a very risky method to trade in my humble opinion.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #434,784
  • Jul 20, 2016 4:44am Jul 20, 2016 4:44am
well i believe now this is time to come down again , GBPUSD already hit 50% of fib and its down trend now it should come down.
what you say friends .
Work Hard In Silence, Let Your Success Be Your Noise.
  • #434,785
  • Jul 20, 2016 5:01am Jul 20, 2016 5:01am
I see potential strong resistance on 4h (36 ema + Week open), 1h (200 ema), 30 min (200 ema) and 15 min (633 ema) around 1,3190/1,3200, and overall trend is still bearish.
Let's see if this is enough for a clean reversal towards main trend.
  • #434,786
  • Jul 20, 2016 5:09am Jul 20, 2016 5:09am
seems like a h&s pattern that has broken the neckline on the 1 hr chart
  • #434,787
  • Jul 20, 2016 5:10am Jul 20, 2016 5:10am
Quoting Lock
{quote} I'm not talking, I'm writing: and if you don't like it you may easily skip it. Regards note: you gone long yesterday at or before 15:12 (GMT+1) and at that time lowest price was 13109. Considering the fact that price went down today to 13064, in order to survive you have a SL of more then 45 pips ( or no stop loss at all). Then some minutes ago, when max price was around 13167 you confess "cut my longs already". So, admitting you have got the minimum price to buy at 13109 and the max price for your cuts at 13167 you have put in place a position...
I didnt mean to offend

Depends on money management. You can have a sl of 100pips if use right money management.

Longs cut in profit thats all that matters.

This is the 1st time back trading G/U since brexit so my confidence not too high atm.

I have my own way to trade which goes against text book theories.


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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #434,788
  • Jul 20, 2016 5:15am Jul 20, 2016 5:15am
Here we Go... Long term H4 forecast.
Potential Kitchen Sink Trade on our hands.
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Trading Eternal...... Shiny & Chrome!!!!
  • #434,789
  • Jul 20, 2016 5:27am Jul 20, 2016 5:27am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I didnt mean to offend Depends on money management. You can have a sl of 100pips if use right money management. Longs cut in profit thats all that matters. This is the 1st time back trading G/U since brexit so my confidence not too high atm. I have my own way to trade which goes against text book theories. {image}

Listen, I'm not offended, but please, next time try to be more polite if you may.

About profit/risk* I have no rights to teach you anything, furthermore I do not know you and maybe you are the more proficent trader in the world. But let me confirm that in order to be consistent on the long run, whatever the money management, it could be better to use a different, more favorable, ratio. That's all. Have a nice trading and regards.

*(if I made the calculation correctly) You buy at 131345 and took profit at 131627. 131627-131345= 28.2 pips of profit
when initial stop loss should be at least below today 130645. 131345-130645= 70 pips of risk
so this is your ratio: 70/28.2 = 2.48/1
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #434,790
  • Jul 20, 2016 5:57am Jul 20, 2016 5:57am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Listen, I'm not offended, but please, next time try to be more polite if you may. About profit/risk* I have no rights to teach you anything, furthermore I do not know you and maybe you are the more proficent trader in the world. But let me confirm that in order to be consistent on the long run, whatever the money management, it could be better to use a different, more favorable, ratio. That's all. Have a nice trading and regards. *(if I made the calculation correctly) You buy at 131345 and took profit at 131627. 131627-131345= 28.2 pips...
I quote you.
My avarage ratio of closed trades is 2 = profit / loss

or in your way is 0,5 = loss/profit

However Usually I enter in a trade when the ration (profit/loss) is minumum 3 due to the fact that reach the TP is not always possible so sometime the trailing stop (always used) is hitten.

Regards Guys
  • #434,791
  • Jul 20, 2016 6:00am Jul 20, 2016 6:00am
guys r we going down again ?
Work Hard In Silence, Let Your Success Be Your Noise.
  • #434,792
  • Edited 6:30am Jul 20, 2016 6:01am | Edited 6:30am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Listen, I'm not offended, but please, next time try to be more polite if you may. About profit/risk* I have no rights to teach you anything, furthermore I do not know you and maybe you are the more proficent trader in the world. But let me confirm that in order to be consistent on the long run, whatever the money management, it could be better to use a different, more favorable, ratio. That's all. Have a nice trading and regards. *(if I made the calculation correctly) You buy at 131345 and took profit at 131627. 131627-131345= 28.2 pips...
mi dispiace amico

This is one problem with trading I find, traders need to have RR of 1:1 to 1:5 ect... This is ok for gambling because flipping a coin out of 100 times you can be right 50% so if your RR is 1:2 you will be profitable.

Problem is most traders dont place SL in correct position and continuously get stopped out until they have to add more funds to the account.

As soon as a trader mentions a negative RR there is a OMG reaction from 95% of all other traders.

There are alot of profitable traders I have seen that use negative RR some even well known traders that talk on FX seminars.

In a perfect world I would love to be able to risk 3% to win 10% but the truth is you will get stopped out more than 50% of the time so your balance will hover around Break even which is where the majority of traders sit.

EDIT: Also would like to point out the 1.3200 tp zone I mentioned yesterday was also hit.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #434,793
  • Jul 20, 2016 6:06am Jul 20, 2016 6:06am
Quoting keep4x
guys r we going down again ?
Not sure but UK put out some good data so could be still up for tonight.

Have to break past current resistance.
200ema with 100ema on h1 and 50ema on 4h also at trend res.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #434,794
  • Jul 20, 2016 6:19am Jul 20, 2016 6:19am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Not sure but UK put out some good data so could be still up for tonight. Have to break past current resistance. 200ema with 100ema on h1 and 50ema on 4h also at trend res.
i agree with you, but i think USD is in power, because all pair with USD are falling ...
i hope we would go down again
Work Hard In Silence, Let Your Success Be Your Noise.
  • #434,795
  • Jul 20, 2016 6:20am Jul 20, 2016 6:20am
IF not passed 1st station,

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Scalper will eat buyer.
  • #434,796
  • Jul 20, 2016 6:24am Jul 20, 2016 6:24am
Quoting salifx
{quote} seems to me a clear HS, but daily view keeps me entering short as R/R ratio is keep going lower...
Bounced-off from 1.3060 but failed to clear 1.3200, signaling another pullback towards 1.3115.
  • #434,797
  • Jul 20, 2016 6:35am Jul 20, 2016 6:35am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} mi dispiace amico This is one problem with trading I find, traders need to have RR of 1:1 to 1:5 ect... This is ok for gambling because flipping a coin out of 100 times you can be right 50% so if your RR is 1:2 you will be profitable. Problem is most traders dont place SL in correct position and continuously get stopped out until they have to add more funds to the account. As soon as a trader mentions a negative RR there is a OMG reaction from 95% of all other traders. There are alot of profitable traders I have seen that use negative RR...

Well you are mixing different aspects of the trading risk menagement.

First of all an off topic note: the use of stop loss as a closing tool is incorrect in my opinion (and not only in my opinion). The stop loss should be a security tool: if something goes wrong here is the server stop loss to save my account. But generally a trader, committed in his or her decision, should be able to close a position 95% of the times without being stopped out.

Having said that, you are perfectly right when you say that the simple ratio risk/profit is not a warranty for success. If infact a trader says "I'm going to risk only 6 pips to have 60 pips as a profit with a ratio of 1/10" and this particular trader has no idea of where are structural places to put that stop, well, as you say, this trader will run to account refill in the near future.

And this is the first aspect you are referring to.

But the second one is the ratio as an absolute value: when you open a position an ideal structural stop loss and an ideal structural take profit should be in your mind and the ratio between these two factors(TP/SL) should be the bigger as possible (considering the real market situation).
If, in a particular market environment, this ratio could not be good, then the only correct solution and decision for a trader should be to not commit in to that trade.
Obviously if you are playing around with demos or test minor accounts you could do what you want. But if you are playing with serious money I think this should be a fundamental part of any trader decision.

Recap:

  1. profit/risk ratio is not a warranty for success.
  2. a stop loss should be placed at a correct structural level and not randomly.
  3. a stop loss should not be a tool to close a position.
  4. A good ratio between Profit and risk is a needed element of any good trading strategy if and only if point 2 and 3 are respected.

Un caro saluto e buona giornata.


PS:

Quoting Lock
13150 is us weak as 13200 is gb weak. The second one is currently protected by the preUS gap down.

I wrote that almost an hour before you target it with your position and 23 hours before it happened.

But please note: I wrote 13150 is us weak meaning is a possible target for us session, while I wrote down that 13200 is gb weak, meaning that it could be a possible target for gb session. That is exactly what happened. Now from my point of view, as a day trader (I mean I went home flat at us pit close) I was not interested in a target possible for the next day. While you, as a bigger timeframe trader, was very interested in it because you were planning to take that position opened all night long untill next day (today)
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #434,798
  • Jul 20, 2016 6:37am Jul 20, 2016 6:37am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #434,799
  • Jul 20, 2016 7:09am Jul 20, 2016 7:09am
does anyone understand wth Lock is yapping about?
  • #434,800
  • Jul 20, 2016 7:10am Jul 20, 2016 7:10am
guys gbp going down or up? i can't tell at all..... 1.32 resisted but it looks it might be tested again?
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