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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #10,901
  • Jul 14, 2016 3:32pm Jul 14, 2016 3:32pm
My stop loss is also hit on this GBPUSD trade (I placed trade before the news). My SL was 1.3207 and it reversed after reaching 1.32065 and then rocketed instantly 250 pips! This was a clear stop hunting by market makers.

Quoting njokie
{quote} congrats.......... my sl hit where had you put your sl {image}
  • #10,902
  • Jul 15, 2016 5:36am Jul 15, 2016 5:36am
im still studying the method. my problem is the GMT offset. i live in asia and my broker starts d1 candle at 00:00GMT. should i just use that or still make use of 6? i like to try this on EURUSD and GBPUSD
  • #10,903
  • Jul 15, 2016 2:30pm Jul 15, 2016 2:30pm
I'm not sure if Peter addressed this specifically or not. If not, I'd be interested to know how each of you guys would trade this scenario (I understand that everyone might do it differently).

Let's say that E/U on Monday was UP enough relative to the other pairs for you to consider it a "hot hand." Then on Tuesday, the opening bar of the day was an inside bar. Would you only be looking to go long on a break to the topside (since Monday was up and it was the "hot hand")? Or would you place orders on both sides of the bar, since it's a new day, and there's no indication of direction for the day?

Again, I'm sure people in this thread might treat it differently, but I'm interested in everyone's opinions. Also, if someone remembers Peter addressing this scenario (I don't remember him doing so), feel free to chime in with what he said.

Thank you.
  • #10,904
  • Jul 19, 2016 1:52am Jul 19, 2016 1:52am
Quoting mike_g
im still studying the method. my problem is the GMT offset. i live in asia and my broker starts d1 candle at 00:00GMT. should i just use that or still make use of 6? i like to try this on EURUSD and GBPUSD
You need to work relative to London's open. It's probably best to refer to the market times on Forex Factory's home page because it is not always GMT. Currently we are using BST. Forex Factory usually get that right.
Gone to a better place
  • #10,905
  • Jul 19, 2016 1:56am Jul 19, 2016 1:56am
Quoting relyt
I'm not sure if Peter addressed this specifically or not. If not, I'd be interested to know how each of you guys would trade this scenario (I understand that everyone might do it differently). Let's say that E/U on Monday was UP enough relative to the other pairs for you to consider it a "hot hand." Then on Tuesday, the opening bar of the day was an inside bar. Would you only be looking to go long on a break to the topside (since Monday was up and it was the "hot hand")? Or would you place orders on both sides of the bar, since it's a new day, and...
I don't think you have missed anything. It's a matter of choice or trading skill. What direction is the daily trend, if there is one? That's the question I usually ask. I'll leave lots of inside bars because of that, even if they look good. Statistically, it is worth while. We want runners. Of course, a reversal on the daily is a real catch.
Gone to a better place
  • #10,906
  • Jul 19, 2016 6:53am Jul 19, 2016 6:53am
eu free trade
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thankyou gregwilson
  • #10,907
  • Jul 19, 2016 6:55am Jul 19, 2016 6:55am
gu free trade
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thankyou gregwilson
  • #10,908
  • Jul 19, 2016 7:47am Jul 19, 2016 7:47am
Quoting smikester
{quote} I don't think you have missed anything. It's a matter of choice or trading skill. What direction is the daily trend, if there is one? That's the question I usually ask. I'll leave lots of inside bars because of that, even if they look good. Statistically, it is worth while. We want runners. Of course, a reversal on the daily is a real catch.
Thanks for this post. It baffles me all the time. If I don't take most signals, I'll miss the early "turn" of the trend". If I take most signals, I risk a bigger drawdown... and I scratch my head...

meanwhile EU and GU DIBS are Free Trades .. below GU DIBS trade.
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"...Look for 5:1 RR. I can be wrong 8/10 time yet I'm not gonna lose" PTJ
  • #10,909
  • Jul 19, 2016 10:45am Jul 19, 2016 10:45am
Quoting njokie
gu free trade {image}
Wow that was nice and early catch
  • #10,910
  • Jul 19, 2016 12:50pm Jul 19, 2016 12:50pm
Quoting dustbin
{quote} Thanks for this post. It baffles me all the time. If I don't take most signals, I'll miss the early "turn" of the trend". If I take most signals, I risk a bigger drawdown... and I scratch my head... meanwhile EU and GU DIBS are Free Trades .. below GU DIBS trade. {image}

where could GU be heading?
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"...Look for 5:1 RR. I can be wrong 8/10 time yet I'm not gonna lose" PTJ
  • #10,911
  • Jul 19, 2016 2:23pm Jul 19, 2016 2:23pm
closed trades.... closed too early but am working on exits
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GU 19TH JULY CLOSED TRADE.PNG Size: 9 KB
thankyou gregwilson
  • #10,912
  • Jul 20, 2016 2:06am Jul 20, 2016 2:06am
Quoting dustbin
{quote} Thanks for this post. It baffles me all the time. If I don't take most signals, I'll miss the early "turn" of the trend". If I take most signals, I risk a bigger drawdown... and I scratch my head... meanwhile EU and GU DIBS are Free Trades .. below GU DIBS trade. {image}

I spent hours (read weeks/years) working out probabilities and found that following the daily trend gave me a slight advantage. Of course, that could have been the market conditions at the time. But it is a logical approach, even during 2012 and 2013 which were not great years for trend following.

It baffles me, too. When professional traders talk about their methods there must be a lot left unsaid - a kind of gut feeling for the market. The brain is too complex to download years of experience into a few words on paper. Keep posting.
Gone to a better place
  • #10,913
  • Jul 20, 2016 3:04am Jul 20, 2016 3:04am
While this thread is buzzing I wanted to post something about exits.

On exits I want to see the second part of my trade run a long way before it gets knocked out. It's a free trade. This is almost the opposite philosophy of the method of entry and psychologically difficult. At the beginning of this thread a well respected trader, Jarroo, would suggest moving your stop loss to break even as soon as TP1 was reached. That's OK but against the principles of trading, in my opinion. I want to be looking at weekly and monthly charts for targets, fib number and support levels, long ma's and patterns.This means that the expectation of every trade can be 1 : 1000 or 1 : 10,000+

There was an interesting programme on the radio yesterday, where a man approached people in the street with a gamble: "If I toss this coin and you win, you get $5.00, but if you lose you pay me $4.50". Nobody would take it. It had to go to about $3.50 before there were any takers. But with guaranteed 9 : 10 you should take it every time.

This, in simple terms, is what we have to cope with when we see a trade sitting at, say, 5 : 1. It's a psychological problem. We have to make the transition from 10 pips risk to 1,000+ pips profit. Every trade is different, which makes it even more interesting. But the clue is in the transition.
Gone to a better place
  • #10,914
  • Jul 22, 2016 4:04am Jul 22, 2016 4:04am
There may be an opportunity with Usd/Cad, not my favorite pair for this method, but with highs of April and May being currently breached, an inside bar trade just here may run for a while. Who knows? Surely it can't be that easy?
Gone to a better place
  • #10,915
  • Jul 22, 2016 4:32am Jul 22, 2016 4:32am
Quoting smikester
There may be an opportunity with Usd/Cad, not my favorite pair for this method, but with highs of April and May being currently breached, an inside bar trade just here may run for a while. Who knows? Surely it can't be that easy?
Hi Thank Smikester for the USDCAD post and specially about the post on Exits.

I was actually looking at the "triangulation" of PA on D1 Chart
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"...Look for 5:1 RR. I can be wrong 8/10 time yet I'm not gonna lose" PTJ
  • #10,916
  • Jul 22, 2016 4:40am Jul 22, 2016 4:40am
Quoting smikester
{quote}It baffles me, too. When professional traders talk about their methods there must be a lot left unsaid - a kind of gut feeling for the market. The brain is too complex to download years of experience into a few words on paper. Keep posting.
This is a VERY interesting point you make. It took me three years to start trading this method. I found it, loved it, ditched it. Re-visited it many times, made trading plans around it and stopped it. The main reason I was not able to strictly follow The DIBS method was perhaps this confusion or lack of "further clarification" lack of "more information". As if PC was holding a lot of information that would be needed to successfully trade this method. (Of course you cannot download his experience of taking over 70,000 plus trades)

I thought, well I can't follow this method beause I don't have a person to check back with, nobody to mentor me. Until at the end I took matters in my own hands and said to myself, believe it now. There is truly a lot less there than what meets the eye. Its simple and you gotta accept this simplicity. I was charged up, alas, a few days/weeks later and consistent NEXT trades taught me many lessons. In the end, its ALL about Asymmetric Risk Rewards as you rightly pointed out. LONG Tails/Trails.... IMHO
"...Look for 5:1 RR. I can be wrong 8/10 time yet I'm not gonna lose" PTJ
  • #10,917
  • Jul 22, 2016 5:27am Jul 22, 2016 5:27am
This is a nice example with hindsight:

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This is the fib tool which someone helped me with some time ago (I can't remember who it was) but anyway you can make your own in MT4 and it's interesting to look back at what was possible if you had the nerve.

Attached Image
Gone to a better place
  • #10,918
  • Aug 3, 2016 3:42am Aug 3, 2016 3:42am
USD CHF free trade
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thankyou gregwilson
  • #10,919
  • Aug 4, 2016 12:30pm Aug 4, 2016 12:30pm
closed at 1:5 usd/chf
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thankyou gregwilson
  • #10,920
  • Aug 4, 2016 4:12pm Aug 4, 2016 4:12pm
Quoting njokie
closed at 1:5 usd/chf {image}
Impressive. Such a good choice of inside bar. Did you consider moving your stop to just under the price?
Gone to a better place
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