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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #434,661
  • Jul 18, 2016 10:30am Jul 18, 2016 10:30am
13300 round tag is weak.
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  • #434,662
  • Jul 18, 2016 10:36am Jul 18, 2016 10:36am
Quoting Lock
{quote} ....pit tags exactly june pit close at 133083 that is now weak...
taken out
Quoting Lock
13300 round tag is weak.
taken out

now up to 133395 there is the gb gap down of this morning. If someone with heavy hands has to step in to stop this move he has to do it inside it. edit: (I mean inside the gb gap) Otherwise we could move up to the targets noted this morning.
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  • #434,663
  • Jul 18, 2016 10:42am Jul 18, 2016 10:42am
UP pls 1.35xx pls
  • #434,664
  • Jul 18, 2016 10:45am Jul 18, 2016 10:45am
i don't understand why gbp can be strong when BOE already hinted so strongly a cut in aug and data is not looking good at all. It's just positioning unwinding......but again i am losing money so i can't say anything
  • #434,665
  • Jul 18, 2016 10:59am Jul 18, 2016 10:59am
Information market is giving to us:

  1. it is not able to stay above friday pit high 133045
  2. it is not ble to stay above overnight high at 13292 and it's up and down this price.
  3. price action is one time framing higher but we have big weak references below.

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  • #434,666
  • Jul 18, 2016 11:06am Jul 18, 2016 11:06am
we have now two balances in this pit session. There is a clean space between them(13261-13264). If price close this clean space it is clearly not a good sign for continuation up for those who are not yet selling and have long still opened. And 13265 is pit half back so is weak.
...if instead this space remains clean even if odds are against it, we could imagine some sort of continuation above.
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  • #434,667
  • Jul 18, 2016 11:17am Jul 18, 2016 11:17am
Quoting Lock
we have now two balances in this pit session. There is a clean space between them(13261-13264). If price close this clean space it is clearly not a good sign for continuation up for those who are not yet selling and have long still opened. And 13265 is pit half back so is weak. ...if instead this space remains clean even if odds are against it, we could imagine some sort of continuation above.
for some reason, i think gbp wants to go higher. The lower GBP earlier had enticed all these M&A deals, long term money want to go into UK (for now)
  • #434,668
  • Jul 18, 2016 11:29am Jul 18, 2016 11:29am
Interesting point on the chart. H+S pattern with trendline at the weekly pivot.

See what happens
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  • #434,669
  • Jul 18, 2016 11:31am Jul 18, 2016 11:31am
Quoting Shoezgal
{quote} for some reason, i think gbp wants to go higher. The lower GBP earlier had enticed all these M&A deals, long term money want to go into UK (for now)

I've no idea and I'm not an investor. As a day trader I try to decifer what markets are doing and why at a lower timeframe, in order to find the best odds to play during the daily sessions time. I'm aware of what is going on in the world but it looks like market embeds anything inside itself. So I try to follow what markets are telling me and I do not try to understand macroeconomics factors.
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  • #434,670
  • Jul 18, 2016 11:34am Jul 18, 2016 11:34am
For instance what market is telling me is that it wasn't able to preserve a double distribution, it closed the clean space between the two balances and now price is inside the lower balance. So now odds are for a possible correction of the lower weak references .
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  • #434,671
  • Edited 1:12pm Jul 18, 2016 12:57pm | Edited 1:12pm
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} The Money Flow is falling . Buyers were incapable to bring the price up due to low demand and huge supply. We should ask " Why Demand decrease? Why the buying power decrease? Do they know something before the crowds ? "They" - I mean, the Big Boys who move the price. More, Soros started to invest in Gold, so he know something before the crowds. Technically, the forces at work were confirmed by almost perfect test on dinamic resistance on SMA100 on M chart and a new low in 2009 wich represent a change of market sentiment. Finally the 123...

Sell opportunity only if the price confirm sellers control of the trend by breaking further downside. Cover @ 1.30 :

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Quoting Lock
{quote} So I try to follow what markets are telling me and I do not try to understand macroeconomics factors.


You approach is good ! Look at the British Pound what it did. Investors fled with money but on TV it said viceversa about referendum. They tried manipulate public opinion through Media but money were leaving the market long time before the referendum. Prepare for the EUR/USD, the money there are leaving too, I expect the 1.04 to be taken and most probable we will assist at the destruction of EU.
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #434,672
  • Jul 18, 2016 2:17pm Jul 18, 2016 2:17pm
Quoting Shoezgal
{quote} fader, what does that leave us?
Sorry for the delay looking after the kids
We have had a bounce off a 50% retracement.
The only thing that does concern me is that the market has been rallying during the Asian session recently
Must be all this talk of Japanese companies taking over UK companies
Could re-test the 1.33 if they are in the mood. If they are risk on - that's it
Also no volatility at the moment
CPI figures tomorrow - these are important. BOE said that they are looking at inflation report to determine size of cut
So I would expect them to have a fair bit of impact.
If they miss .4%- ie .2 or .3% it will give the BOE the excuse to cut rates further than expected in August
Market could then recover from circa 10.30 - 11am GMT to mid-day ish- then US traders may follow suit.
Assuming that its .4% then more of the same as today - although expect more volatility
If its .5%, or .6%- market could rally- with a drift off around 10.30 - 11am to midday.
Also keep an eye on Building Permits from the US - just in case there are some very good or very poor figures

Good luck
  • #434,673
  • Jul 18, 2016 3:24pm Jul 18, 2016 3:24pm
CPI figure tomorrow will be a key catalyst. If it comes out higher than 0.4% expect cable to rocket up.
  • #434,674
  • Jul 18, 2016 3:46pm Jul 18, 2016 3:46pm
You are right- if inflation was high say .7%- it would restrict the cut that Carney can make so Cable would rally
  • #434,675
  • Jul 18, 2016 3:55pm Jul 18, 2016 3:55pm
someone earlier mentioned the inverse relationship between GU and EG.

I am curious...
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #434,676
  • Jul 18, 2016 4:24pm Jul 18, 2016 4:24pm
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Sell opportunity only if the price confirm sellers control of the trend by breaking further downside. Cover @ 1.30 : {image} {image} {quote} You approach is good ! Look at the British Pound what it did. Investors fled with money but on TV it said viceversa about referendum. They tried manipulate public opinion through Media but money were leaving the market long time before the referendum. Prepare for the EUR/USD, the money there are leaving too, I expect the 1.04 to be taken and most probable we will assist at the destruction...

Thank you andoseg2, it's only a way to survive for me: there are a lot of games in this market. Have a nice trading tomorrow.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #434,677
  • Jul 18, 2016 4:39pm Jul 18, 2016 4:39pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Sorry for the delay looking after the kids We have had a bounce off a 50% retracement. The only thing that does concern me is that the market has been rallying during the Asian session recently Must be all this talk of Japanese companies taking over UK companies Could re-test the 1.33 if they are in the mood. If they are risk on - that's it Also no volatility at the moment CPI figures tomorrow - these are important. BOE said that they are looking at inflation report to determine size of cut So I would expect them to have a fair bit of impact....
Tomorrow's inflation data may cause some movement, but the actual data that the BOE is waiting for will be contained in Quarterly Inflation Report, which is next released on 4th August, the same date at the MPC decision. The data released tomorrow will not cover any post-Brexit impact to CPI, as far as I'm aware, given that the prices are recorded on the second or third Tuesday of every month - which is prior to June 23rd, the date of the referendum.
  • #434,678
  • Jul 18, 2016 4:41pm Jul 18, 2016 4:41pm
BEA systems more good news , come on GB
  • #434,679
  • Jul 18, 2016 6:02pm Jul 18, 2016 6:02pm
is there an inverse h&s on the daily chart?
  • #434,680
  • Jul 18, 2016 6:16pm Jul 18, 2016 6:16pm
I have chosen to trade GBPNZD rather than GBPUSD. I have a bias to the upside on both but the GBPNZD appears to have a better potential technically. I may be wrong.
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