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Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams

  • #1,521
  • Mar 15, 2016 6:30am Mar 15, 2016 6:30am
After BDB bar and some Wise Man signals by the manual, when in profit, what is the exit strategy? One manual I've read states only the initial SL at the BDB extremum. Does one move this SL in some way along the move, or just wait for an opposite BDB to exit? Or maybe use the Alligator lines for exit like in the earlier BW system?
I don't trade anymore. I just gratefully accept what Market has to offer
Akhaldanos FX1 Return This Month: na
  • #1,522
  • Edited 8:02pm Apr 11, 2016 7:30pm | Edited 8:02pm
Bill Williams fractals and alligator is a great strategy although I have modified it to my trading style of sell the highs and buy the lows.
I personally get much better results.
I use it for day scalping.
I get in on 15min and I get out on 5min.
When price breach a fractal high or low from a pervious high or low on 15min i place orders to sell in bullish or buy in a bearish usually around 20 to 30 pips apart
and I close around the 50 ema-100ematouch on 5min.
Trades can take anywhere between 1hour and 24hours to close and I don't use stops.
Anybody want to see this in action who does not understand fractals and alligator go to trading 212 open a demo, apply fractals @ 5 and add alligator and 100ema and 200ema.

Easy pips traders.

Hats of to chaos trading.
FREEDOM IS SECURITY.
  • #1,523
  • Apr 12, 2016 7:36am Apr 12, 2016 7:36am
Important to make the strategy fit to your perspective of the market, good job!
But no stops?? Buying when bearish, selling when bullish??
Hm ..
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #1,524
  • Apr 13, 2016 12:00pm Apr 13, 2016 12:00pm
Thanks.

No stops, I know it is not to every traders cup of tea but I hate them, I can't stand them.
If you buy in bullish with bill Williams it requires trailing stop or ATR to which I would only use ATR and it will be set at 4 to be taken of the candle prior to the break which is extremely accurate.
But like so many trading posts I read on fx factory this question always appears, " where do I get out"?
So by selling in bullish you have Ema's as targets. And by buying in bearish again you have EMA targets.
The fractal needs to be a good distance away from EMA, to begin with, and once a trade is placed I grid orders above if selling and below if buying usually 20-30 pips apart and close trades at EMA,s this way I get 10 or so opportunitys for easy trades a day over multiple pairs.
Just set alerts at the break, receive an sms , place trade and orders, go for a coffee
FREEDOM IS SECURITY.
  • #1,525
  • Apr 29, 2016 5:51am Apr 29, 2016 5:51am
dear Hippiedog,
Thanx for sharing ur technique, my only question is that do u use any mental stops if market goes violently against you or do you wait for 5 mt ema to hit? Do u also use this technique in commodities?
Thanx
  • #1,526
  • May 30, 2016 7:41am May 30, 2016 7:41am
Scalp on a 1 minute or 5 minute time frame , and only go by the fractals, baseline, and alligator. Set your target at $31.25 (bonds), or $40-$50 (YM and Gold 100oz). And double or triple the stop loss. Trade between 830-1000am Central time, and 2pm-3pm Central Time.

I know this goes against the let your winners run, be in it for the long haul, and use the Elliot Wave (with which you can justify staying in all kinds of losing trades).

I think BW came up with his bdb (wiseman 1), zone, super ao(wiseman 2), ao saucer, ao divergence, 3232 accelerator (wiseman 3), and baseline/balance line to justify writing more books. And except baseline (which is a failed fractal), those new strategies/indicators are not worth the trouble. And he uses hourly and longer time frames because it is more convenient for folks to peek at the market while they are at work.

I've just finished all 77 pages in here. Nice to see that it isn't just me that doesn't get the elliot wave, doesn't trust fibonacci, has the market go to exactly his stop loss and reverse, and has the same confusion over BW's books.

BTW, this is my 1st post
  • #1,527
  • Jun 1, 2016 2:49am Jun 1, 2016 2:49am
"you don't need to count elliot waves, you have the alligator.........", day 4 week eleven of 12 week home study package, Bill Williams .
  • #1,528
  • Jun 3, 2016 1:14pm Jun 3, 2016 1:14pm
I Think Bill WiLliam strategy is great.. I use fractal breakout as my main Entry and direction of trades is determined by Alligator, as in his book it says it Work as a "compass".

But instead of entering when a fractal get hit, I enter when candle closes beyond the fractal which ensures the volatility/momentum needed for a break out. I think of a fractal as a short term S/R because it is the highest or the lowest from the last five bars.
  • #1,529
  • Jun 4, 2016 12:00am Jun 4, 2016 12:00am
Quoting thailerdurde
"you don't need to count elliot waves, you have the alligator.........", day 4 week eleven of 12 week home study package, Bill Williams .
The alligator was Bill's way of trying to get people to understand impulse vs. reaction. Don't trade reactive waves. Trade only impulse waves. Fibonacci, pivots, Murrey/Gann lines do not have any meaning in and of themselves, so you do not need to "trust" them. They are just consistent lines in the sand so a trader can make decisions to trade off of. Any system of these kinds of indicators depends upon price action at it's core.

The AO is a 5/34 MACD and the AC is a 5 period moving average of the that MACD.

The zones concept is useful for money management techniques.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,530
  • Jun 6, 2016 3:16pm Jun 6, 2016 3:16pm
So what time frame does everyone use?

How much did his first book originally cost? I didn't buy it because the manager for my 1st job out of college was named "Bill Williams".
  • #1,531
  • Jun 9, 2016 8:00pm Jun 9, 2016 8:00pm
​Hello. If anyone is interested in this method please join me here: https://join.skype.com/Kbk9m3ocqEzd
  • #1,532
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:51pm Jun 10, 2016 4:51pm
BDB Bull/Bear Divergent Bar Just like the Key Reversal Bar, they stick out at every market turn. So I used my spreadsheet program to search for all the Bull Bear Divergence bars, and the key reversal bars. Guess what? They show up all the time! They're just more conspicuous at the market turns!!

And that is GREAT! As in GREATLY USELESS !!

And as for timeframes, I'm beginning to think it is best to trade the one that shows the hungriest most active alligator. From what I've been able to glean from the internet, BW and Justine use all kinds of time frames but never lower that 5 minutes?

Volume and Range time frames can be deceiving during high volatility. Sure you get nice signals, but the market moves too fast to enter in a stop order or limit order.

Wisemen pyramiding BW style is also worthless. In BW's first book, Trading Chaos (1995) he covers air bag trades and thumb trades. Has anyone found these useful?

Maybe it is just me, but I think that only the fractal , baseline, and alligator have any usefulness.
  • #1,533
  • Edited 11:10pm Jun 10, 2016 8:31pm | Edited 11:10pm
Quoting thailerdurde
BDB Bull/Bear Divergent Bar Just like the Key Reversal Bar, they stick out at every market turn. So I used my spreadsheet program to search for all the Bull Bear Divergence bars, and the key reversal bars. Guess what? They show up all the time! They're just more conspicuous at the market turns!! And that is GREAT! As in GREATLY USELESS !! And as for timeframes, I'm beginning to think it is best to trade the one that shows the hungriest most active alligator. From what I've been able to glean from the internet, BW and Justine use all kinds of time...
Context is by far the most difficult thing to teach with a trading method. If you are going use bill's methods, context is important.

Watch for trading opportunities when you are in a grey zone, start to see BDB bars, and a collapsing alligator. If you see a TF with an open alligator you are late. Wait until the alligator goes back to sleep.

Nothing in a chart is useless. Every bar gives information. What Bill did was to package well known market concepts into a course that newbies can take and understand.

I cannot say much about pyramiding. He has changed this a few time. I would just add a trading unit each time I get a signal.

In his first book he discussed air bag stops, not trades. Thumb trades were his early version of fractal trades.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,534
  • Jun 11, 2016 11:13am Jun 11, 2016 11:13am
Airbags = stops, and Thumbs = fractals?

Maybe I was too critical, it is just that there is so much boiler plate double-talk nonsense in technical analysis. Maybe I'll do some historical trading to check out the congested alligator for entries. I like the "grab $35 and run" strategy. What a book title!

Inserted Video
35 minutes into the video , it shows tick charts and how things are obscured when looking at a longer time frame. In short, the devil is in the details.
  • #1,535
  • Jun 11, 2016 3:41pm Jun 11, 2016 3:41pm
Quoting thailerdurde
Airbags = stops, and Thumbs = fractals? Maybe I was too critical, it is just that there is so much boiler plate double-talk nonsense in technical analysis. Maybe I'll do some historical trading to check out the congested alligator for entries. I like the "grab $35 and run" strategy. What a book title! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgS52RyiO_M 35 minutes into the video , it shows tick charts and how things are obscured when looking at a longer time frame. In short, the devil is in the details.
That's a very interesting video! The part where one firm moving the market. Well that created a gap. That gap will fill. Further, looking at that chart, there was a downtrend in progress long before that event. Broken fractals and zone trades all the way down. Actually if you do not like the way Bill talks, use some one else. All of it is price action redefined.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,536
  • Jun 11, 2016 8:12pm Jun 11, 2016 8:12pm
Bill Williams is ok, except he has the same name as that %^&* manager that I worked for fresh out of college.

Bill's fractal , alligator , baseline strategy is the only thing I like in technical analysis. Double stochastics 24 and 10 with a 4 tick range chart shows promise. But the alligator/fractal/baseline is more consistent and straight forward. The rest of technical analysis is all double talk to me.

I think longer time frames lose a lot of resolution
  • #1,537
  • Jun 17, 2016 7:57pm Jun 17, 2016 7:57pm
My latest idea:

Trade on a 1 minute time frame for ZN, ES, and 6E. Only use the fractal strategy and the Smoothed Moving
Average 2 of stochastic 34 %K of the stochastic 34 %k of closing price of the 1 minute bar oscillator.

Buy trigger is the oscillator turns up after scraping on the bottom, and the candlestick crosses above the 5 bar average of typical price. And the 5 bar average has a positive slope. It works great if a fractal is involved.

Does anyone trade livestock futures anymore? I use to love Live Hogs but they look like they lost the liquidity. And they changed them to lean hogs which messed up my strategy. It was sell after 4 up days in a row, buy after 3 down days in a row. Each days' change greater than 1 tick, and less than 1 point. And stay away from the cold storage report. It use to work great. God must really like me or something?

Jake Bernstein, Wells Wilder, Marty Zweig and Larry Williams got nothing on me. Bill Williams does. And P Q Wall was way way out there.
  • #1,538
  • Jul 9, 2016 8:14am Jul 9, 2016 8:14am
I have just been playing around with alligator and this really simple entry exit strategy appeared just by adding the 5 EMA enter long when 5 EMA crosses above alligator jaws and enter short when 5EMA crosses below alligator jaws.
Close your position when 5EMA crosses alligator lips in opposite direction.
That is easy pips.
FREEDOM IS SECURITY.
  • #1,539
  • Jul 10, 2016 11:11pm Jul 10, 2016 11:11pm
Quoting hippiedog
I have just been playing around with alligator and this really simple entry exit strategy appeared just by adding the 5 EMA enter long when 5 EMA crosses above alligator jaws and enter short when 5EMA crosses below alligator jaws. Close your position when 5EMA crosses alligator lips in opposite direction. That is easy pips.
Hi Hippidog, I like to enter when the candle (HA Candle) close below or above the jaw. Sometimes I end up a little early but be patient.
  • #1,540
  • Jul 13, 2016 6:50am Jul 13, 2016 6:50am
Quoting hippiedog
I have just been playing around with alligator and this really simple entry exit strategy appeared just by adding the 5 EMA enter long when 5 EMA crosses above alligator jaws and enter short when 5EMA crosses below alligator jaws. Close your position when 5EMA crosses alligator lips in opposite direction. That is easy pips.
lips = jaws??
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